Core Viewpoint - Longfor has officially launched its one-stop home decoration lifestyle brand "Longfor AURASPACE," integrating over 30 years of high-quality home decoration service experience with digital technology to provide comprehensive living solutions [1] Group 1: High-Quality Home Decoration Services - Longfor has delivered over 600,000 high-quality decorated projects across 60 cities, earning the trust of millions of customers [3] - The brand emphasizes a full-chain standard from modular design to after-sales service, ensuring a worry-free experience for customers [3] - Longfor collaborates with over 300 top domestic and international brands to promote "luxury equality" and uphold health commitments [3] Group 2: Digital Technology Leadership - Longfor has invested over 10 billion in digital technology, applying BIM and AIoT technologies to create a fully digital management platform for home decoration [3] - The digital platform allows customers to view material lists, quotes, and construction progress in real-time, enhancing transparency and reducing errors [3] Group 3: Creating a Beautiful Life - The initiative aligns with government goals to improve housing standards, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability in living spaces [3] - Longfor AURASPACE offers customized solutions based on customer lifestyles, family structures, and aesthetic preferences, transforming spaces into reflections of life attitudes [4] Group 4: Market Expansion - Longfor AURASPACE has established a presence in nine major first- and second-tier cities, with over 20 projects launched to enhance customer living experiences [6] - The brand's entry into the home decoration sector marks a commitment to standardization, transparency, and quality in the industry [6]

Core Insights - The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations has led to a new development opportunity in the rental industry, with market order becoming more standardized and policy benefits gradually being released [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in supply and demand dynamics is central to the industry's transformation, driven by both policy and market forces [1] - The introduction of guaranteed rental housing has expanded both the quality and quantity of available housing, increasing financial support for more participants and enhancing the overall quality of housing [1][2] Group 2: Compliance and Efficiency - Compliance and efficiency are foundational to the industry's restructuring, with companies needing to adopt technological measures to ensure the authenticity of housing information and compliance with regulations [2] - The regulations are expected to eliminate non-compliant companies, leaving those that genuinely focus on user needs [2] Group 3: Service and Product Innovation - Changes in tenant demands are reflected in service upgrades and adjustments in product structure, with new projects needing to emphasize quality and spatial design [2] - Companies are increasingly integrating various asset types (long-term rentals, commercial, elderly care, office spaces) to provide comprehensive living solutions [2] Group 4: Social Value and Community Engagement - The new rental era requires companies to balance economic and social value, transitioning from landlords to micro-city operators that cater to specific community needs [2] - Attention to details such as charging needs for delivery personnel and breakfast supply reflects the importance of service quality in the new rental landscape [2] Group 5: Asset Valuation - The introduction of public REITs has altered valuation logic, with cash flow stability becoming a core indicator for asset valuation [3] - Uncertainties regarding land tenure and renewal policies are identified as major bottlenecks, necessitating improvements in operational efficiency and service enhancement to boost market recognition during asset exit [3]

Group 1 - The salon focused on the transformation and future of the housing rental market, highlighting industry trends and market opportunities in the new rental era [1] - The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations has begun to release policy dividends, leading to a new development opportunity for the rental industry [1] - Experts emphasized the need for companies to quickly and sensitively respond to changes in user demands, particularly in the rental sector, to gain a competitive edge [1] Group 2 - The discussion included topics such as differentiated operations, evolution of business models, and enhancement of asset value [1] - Companies are encouraged to balance economic and social value, transitioning from "landlords" to "micro-city operators" to meet diverse user needs [1][2] - The core keywords for the new rental era are "operational efficiency," "user demand," and "ecological co-construction," which are essential for reconstructing living relationships and promoting urban symbiosis [2]

Core Insights - The new rental era is driven by the dual forces of diversified housing demand and policy-market dynamics [3][6] - The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations has led to a more structured and compliant rental market, presenting new development opportunities [3][6] Policy and Market Changes - The transformation in supply-demand dynamics is central to industry change, with increased financial support for affordable rental housing leading to enhanced supply and quality [6] - The actual number of mobile populations was significantly underestimated, with the 2020 census revealing 376 million, 140 million more than previous estimates, highlighting a hidden demand in the rental market [6] - There is a notable mismatch in supply and demand, with 24 million affordable rental units built but only 7 million occupied, while brand long-term apartments have a high occupancy rate in first-tier cities [6] User Demand and Industry Reconstruction - The shift in user demand is driving a comprehensive restructuring of the industry from product-focused to service-oriented [10][13] - The need for service upgrades and product structure adjustments is evident, with new projects requiring a focus on quality and spatial design [10] - Companies are encouraged to balance economic and social value, transitioning from landlords to micro-city operators [10][13] Asset Value and Operational Efficiency - The introduction of public REITs has altered valuation logic, emphasizing cash flow stability as a core metric [11] - Companies are exploring cost restructuring and innovative models to mitigate profit pressures, including digital management and energy-saving technologies [11][12] - The consensus among industry experts is that operational efficiency, user demand, and ecological co-construction are key to achieving a restructured housing relationship and urban symbiosis [13]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes turned positive on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, driven by seasonal factors and new policies in first-tier cities [4][20] - The land auction market showed a decline in heat, with a notable drop in average land premium rates, although first-tier cities still maintained premiums above 10% [4][20] - The report highlights a significant increase in the sales and land acquisition of top real estate companies, indicating a recovery in the sector [4][20] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In September, new housing transaction area in 40 cities reached 935.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [12][14] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 22.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9% in new housing transactions [13][16] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [13][16] Second-hand Housing Transactions - In September, second-hand housing transaction area in 18 cities reached 758.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [20][23] - First and second-tier cities showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decline [21][25] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of September, the inventory of new homes in 12 tracked cities increased by 2.0% month-on-month but decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, with an overall absorption period of 18.9 months [4][12] - The average opening absorption rate in September was 39%, indicating a slight decline but remaining at a high level for the year [4][20] Land Market - The overall land auction heat declined in September, with a national average land premium rate of 3.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month [4][20] - The total land transaction area in September increased by 19.5% month-on-month but decreased by 9.1% year-on-year [4][20] Real Estate Companies - In September, the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in equity sales, with a total sales amount of 2.49 trillion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][20] - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies in September increased by 184.2% year-on-year, indicating strong market activity [4][20] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encouraged market-oriented methods to revitalize idle land, while first-tier cities continued to optimize real estate policies [4][20] - Specific policy adjustments in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai aimed to ease purchasing restrictions and improve financing conditions [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and those benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - Li Nan, former senior vice president and general manager of commercial real estate at Longfor Group, has officially joined China International Trade as executive director and general manager, marking a significant career transition after a two-year hiatus [2][15]. Group 1: Background and Career Progression - Li Nan began her career at various companies including Baoteng Real Estate and Wuhan Baisheng Catering, before joining CapitaLand in 2001, where she became one of the few female executives in the male-dominated commercial real estate sector [2]. - During her 15 years at CapitaLand, she held the position of Central China Regional General Manager, overseeing the launch of several commercial projects, including the notable CapitaLand Mall in Wuhan [2][7]. Group 2: Contributions to Longfor Group - Li Nan was recruited to Longfor Group in 2015, where she played a crucial role in the company's commercial strategy, which included allocating 10% of annual sales returns to holding properties [3][6]. - Under her leadership, Longfor's commercial segment experienced rapid growth, with the company expanding its commercial projects significantly, including the opening of its first project in Beijing [3][8]. Group 3: Transition and Departure from Longfor - In 2020, Li Nan's influence within Longfor began to wane, as several of her subordinates left the company, and she shifted focus towards external communications and marketing [12][13]. - In August 2023, Longfor announced her retirement, with speculation that her two-year absence from the industry was due to a non-compete agreement [14]. During her tenure, Longfor opened five new malls, reaching a total of 81 operational malls with a rental income of 4.87 billion yuan [14]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Li Nan's new role at China International Trade is anticipated to bring fresh perspectives and strategies to the company, as she embarks on a new chapter in her career [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has confirmed Longfor Group's corporate family rating at Ba3, reflecting stable operating income, strong brand reputation in high-tier cities, quality land reserves, and sound financial management [1][2] Group 1: Rating and Financial Health - Moody's indicates that Longfor's liquidity remains strong, with non-restricted cash and operating cash flow sufficient to cover unpaid land payments, dividends, and maturing debt over the next 12-18 months [1] - The agency expects credit metrics to recover in the next 12-24 months due to growth in high-margin operating income and ongoing debt reduction [1] - The rating methodology has shifted from residential construction and real estate development to REITs and other commercial real estate, acknowledging Longfor's business model transformation and solid financial standing [1] Group 2: Business Growth and Revenue - Longfor's operational and service business revenue is projected to grow to RMB 13.27 billion in the first half of 2025, accounting for 22.6% of total revenue, with operational revenue at RMB 7.01 billion and service revenue at RMB 6.26 billion [1] - Moody's forecasts that rental income from Longfor's operational business will continue to grow at an annual rate of approximately 5%-7%, reaching RMB 15-16 billion in the next 1-2 years [2] - Service revenue is expected to grow steadily at around 5% annually due to the expansion of managed area and optimization of services provided to clients [2] - Longfor is recognized as an early mover in diversifying into operational and service sectors beyond real estate development, securing stable cash flow and income during the economic transition [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rally, with the Hang Seng Index closing up by 2.42%, driven primarily by gains in technology and oil sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened significantly higher and saw a peak increase of 3.9% during the day, ultimately closing up by 3% [3]. - Notable performers in the technology sector included NetEase, which surged by 5.18%, and Alibaba, which rose by 4.86%. Over ten stocks, including JD Health, SMIC, Baidu, NIO, and Tencent, recorded gains exceeding 3% [3]. - The oil sector also showed strong performance, with the index closing up by 2.54%. China Petroleum led the gains with a rise of 5.05%, followed by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) at 2.31%, and Sinopec at 1.49% [3]. Group 2: Weak Sectors - The real estate and banking sectors underperformed, with the real estate index closing up by only 0.62% and the banking index by 1.04%. Both sectors experienced a rebound after initial declines but could not maintain momentum [3]. - Specific companies in the real estate sector, such as Longfor Group and Jianfa International Group, saw declines of 1.63% and 1.61%, respectively. In the banking sector, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank fell by 1.51% [3].

Group 1: Government Policies and Initiatives - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasizes the need to construct safe, comfortable, green, and smart houses, while also renovating old ones [1] - Nine departments, including the Ministry of Housing, have issued an action plan to develop and implement intelligent municipal infrastructure construction and renovation plans [2] - Beijing has introduced a new tax policy for housing rental enterprises, reducing the VAT rate from 5% to 1.5% starting January 1, 2026, and lowering the property tax rate from 12% to 4% [3] Group 2: Real Estate Transactions and Market Activity - In Chengdu, a new policy has been released that removes local deposit restrictions for housing provident fund loans, allowing eligible non-local contributors to apply for conversion loans [4] - Two low-density residential land parcels in Suzhou's Xiangcheng district were sold at a total price of 661 million yuan, with floor prices of 7,500 yuan and 7,000 yuan per square meter [5] - A residential land parcel in Hangzhou's Binjiang district was sold for 1.264 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 20% premium over the starting price [6] Group 3: Land Supply and Development - Beijing has announced the eighth round of proposed residential land supply for 2025, covering 9 plots with a total area of approximately 44 hectares and a planned construction scale of about 1.03 million square meters [7] - Shanghai is set to auction 6 land parcels in its eighth batch of land sales, with a total starting price of 18.495 billion yuan [8] Group 4: Company Performance and Leadership Changes - China State Construction's project, Yunhe Jiuyuan, achieved sales of 448 units in September, leading in sales volume, area, and amount in Beijing [9] - Beijing Urban Construction's Xi Yuan project opened its humanistic demonstration area, showcasing high-end residential values [10] - Sunac China’s debt restructuring plan received approval from 98.5% of creditors, marking a significant step towards resolving its offshore debt issues [12] Group 5: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - China Resources Land reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 154.4 billion yuan for the first nine months, a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [13] - China Jinmao's contract sales for the same period reached 80.685 billion yuan, with a total area of 3.6745 million square meters sold [14] - Longfor Group's total contract sales amounted to 50.75 billion yuan, with a sales area of 3.943 million square meters [15]