大和认为，可灵AI的变现加速及快手电商GMV增长将继续成为今年股价关键驱动因素，将可灵AI今年 全年收入预测上调至超过10亿元人民币，虽然预期公司对AI的投资将增加，但相信营运杠杆下投资对 今年盈利影响仅占低单位数百分比，预测经调整净利润率可稳定在约15%水平。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，快手-W(01024)第二季收入大致符合预期，盈利则较市场预期高 出近11%，可灵AI收入由首季的1.5亿元人民币增至超过2.5亿元人民币，其商业化进展亦加快。现时大 和预测快手第三季收入将同比增长14%，GMV料增长15%，因应可灵AI投资额较年初预算翻倍，将今 年全年每股盈利预测下调2%，但亦将2026至2027年每股盈利预测上调1%至2%，重申"买入"评级，目标 价从70港元上调至85港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International forecasts a 13% year-on-year growth in Kuaishou-W's total revenue for Q3, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and steady growth in online marketing [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Kuaishou reported a 13% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q2, reaching 35 billion RMB [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 grew by 20% year-on-year to 5.6 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 2% and 11% respectively [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The strong performance in e-commerce and better-than-expected progress in AI monetization contributed significantly to the company's financial results [1] - The company is recognized for its leading video generation model, strong product capabilities, and diverse application scenarios in AI [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CMB International slightly raised its profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2025-2027 by 0-1%, reflecting the company's positive advancements in AI [1] - The target price for Kuaishou has been increased from 80 HKD to 84 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's Q2 total revenue increased by 13% year-on-year to 35 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit rising by 20% year-on-year to 5.6 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 2% and 11% respectively, driven by strong e-commerce performance and better-than-expected AI monetization progress [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, primarily supported by robust e-commerce performance and steady growth in online marketing [1] - The profit forecast for the fiscal years 2025-2027 has been slightly raised by 0-1%, reflecting the company's positive advancements in AI [1] - The outlook on Kuaishou's progress and commercialization in AI is optimistic, considering its industry-leading video generation model, strong product capabilities, and diverse application scenarios [1] Group 2 - The target price for Kuaishou has been adjusted from 80 HKD to 84 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [5][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in adjusted net profit and revenue, with Q2 adjusted net profit increasing by 20.1% year-on-year to 56 billion CNY, and revenue reaching 350 billion CNY, up 13.1% year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in its main business and accelerate the commercialization of its AI capabilities, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 188.18 billion CNY, 226.85 billion CNY, and 254.52 billion CNY respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, Kuaishou achieved revenue of 677 billion CNY (up 12% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit of 102 billion CNY (up 12.5% year-on-year) [5]. - Q2 2025 saw a gross margin of 55.7% (up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year) and an adjusted net profit margin of 16% (up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year) [5]. - The company's revenue from online marketing services reached 198 billion CNY (up 12.8% year-on-year), while live streaming revenue was 100 billion CNY (up 8% year-on-year) [6]. User Engagement and Monetization - In Q2 2025, Kuaishou's Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 409 million (up 3.4% year-on-year) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 715 million (up 3.3% year-on-year) [6]. - The platform's ability to monetize traffic continues to improve, with significant growth in various service revenues, including a 17.6% increase in e-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to 358.9 billion CNY [6]. AI Commercialization - Kuaishou's AI, "Keling AI," generated over 2.5 billion CNY in revenue in Q2, with a global user base exceeding 45 million and over 20,000 enterprise clients [7]. - The AI capabilities are enhancing marketing and e-commerce operations, with a notable increase in efficiency and cost reduction in content production [7].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.93% to close at 25,339.14 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index soaring nearly 3% [1] - The overall trading volume for the day was HKD 285.58 billion, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 0.27% over the week [1] Blue Chip Performance - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 10.06% to HKD 56.9, contributing 36.87 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included Li Ning (02331) up 8.78%, BYD Electronics (00285) up 6.13%, while Sinopec (00386) and China Resources Power (00836) saw declines [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector experienced a collective surge, with major stocks like Kuaishou and Alibaba rising significantly [3] - Chip stocks exploded, with Huahong Semiconductor rising by 17.85% and ZTE Corporation by 15.13% [3] - The automotive sector also performed well, with XPeng Motors increasing by 13% following significant share purchases by its CEO [3][8] Earnings Reports - Miniso (09896) reported a revenue of HKD 4.97 billion for Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with a notable 87% surge in TOP TOY revenue [7] - SUTENG (02498) achieved a revenue of approximately HKD 460 million, up 24.4% year-on-year, driven by a 631.9% increase in robot sales [7] - Kuaishou's Q2 revenue grew by 13.1% to HKD 35 billion, with adjusted net profit rising by 20.1% [7] Chip Industry Developments - DeepSeek launched its new model, DeepSeek-V3.1, which is expected to enhance the domestic chip design process [4] - The domestic computing power sector is anticipated to see accelerated growth due to increased demand for AI chips and local chip production [4] Airline Sector Performance - Airline stocks faced declines, with China Southern Airlines (01055) down 1.77% and China Eastern Airlines (00670) down 2.83% [5] - July operational data indicated a 2.3% year-on-year increase in domestic route capacity, but the overall demand remains subdued [6] Notable Stock Movements - XPeng Motors saw a strong performance with a 13.6% increase after its CEO's share purchase [8] - NIO's new ES8 model launch led to an 11.12% rise in its stock price [9] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) rose by 7.63% due to changes in global oil supply dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The departure of influencer Xinba from Kuaishou does not significantly impact the company's stock performance or operational stability, indicating that Kuaishou is moving away from reliance on top influencers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Xinba's Departure - Xinba announced his exit from Kuaishou on August 18, and the stock price showed minimal fluctuations, with a slight increase of 0.4% the following day [1]. - On August 22, after Xinba's account was renamed, Kuaishou's stock rose by 4%, suggesting that the platform can thrive without him [1]. - Xinba's exit coincided with a controversy surrounding his product, "Cotton Code" sanitary napkins, which faced allegations of being carcinogenic [5][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Kuaishou reported a total revenue of 35 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with a net profit of 4.9 billion yuan, up 23.7% [2]. - The total e-commerce GMV for Kuaishou in the first half of the year reached 691.2 billion yuan, a 16.5% increase from 593.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Shift in Business Strategy - Kuaishou is actively reducing its dependency on top influencers like Xinba, as his contribution to the platform's GMV has decreased to 4% in 2023 [15]. - The company is focusing on supporting smaller influencers and diversifying its content creators to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a few top performers [14][15]. - Kuaishou's strategy includes attracting high-profile personalities like Jay Chou to appeal to a wealthier demographic, while still maintaining its core user base in lower-tier cities [14][18]. Group 4: Future Implications - The exit of Xinba marks the beginning of a "post-Xinba era" for Kuaishou, which may face challenges in preventing the emergence of another dominant influencer [21][33]. - Kuaishou's user base remains heavily concentrated in lower-tier cities, with 58% of users from these areas, indicating a continued reliance on grassroots content creators [18]. - Despite Xinba's departure, his influence persists as he remains the actual controller of the XinXuan Group, which continues to generate GMV for Kuaishou [19].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices continued to rise in the afternoon, with a notable increase in market sentiment, showing a rebound after an initial decline this week [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 2.71%, leading the gains, while the Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index rose by 0.93% and 1.17% respectively, with the National Index returning above the 9000-point mark [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced a collective rally in the afternoon, with Kuaishou rising over 4%, Xiaomi increasing by 2.34%, Alibaba up by 2%, and Tencent and Meituan both gaining over 1% [1] - Semiconductor stocks were significantly boosted by two news items, with Huahong Semiconductor soaring nearly 18%, SMIC rising by 10%, and Jingmen Semiconductor and Beike Micro both increasing by over 10% [1] - Other sectors such as military, robotics, automotive, stablecoin, dining, paper, and various others also saw upward movements [1] Underperforming Sectors - Despite the overall market gains, certain sectors faced declines, particularly in the airline industry where the occupancy rate slightly decreased month-on-month, leading to a marginal improvement in airline revenue levels [1] - China National Airlines experienced a significant drop of over 5%, while sectors such as copper, brain-computer interface, coal, photovoltaic, gambling, and home appliances mostly performed poorly [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][31] Core Views - The company's e-commerce business is experiencing strong growth, with quarterly revenue exceeding 250 million RMB [3][30] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 is 56.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% [9][31] - The company is expected to maintain a steady performance, with AI continuously empowering its main business [31] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue reached 35 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [9] - The gross profit margin was 55.7%, up 0.3% year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to improved bandwidth server efficiency [9] - The sales expense ratio was 30%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a continuous decline in customer acquisition costs [9] Commercialization - E-commerce GMV grew by 18% in Q2 2025, with live e-commerce revenue increasing by 26% [20] - The number of monthly active buyers in e-commerce reached 134 million, with a penetration rate of 19.0% [20] - Advertising revenue for Q2 2025 was 198 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% [26] AI Product Development - The AI product "Keling" generated over 250 million RMB in revenue in Q2 2025, with a focus on enhancing user interaction experience [30] - The company has raised its annual revenue forecast for Keling AI to 125 million USD due to its successful progress [30] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts adjusted profits of 202 billion RMB, 238 billion RMB, and 281 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [31] - The expected revenue for 2025 is approximately 143.08 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 12.8% [8]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Kuaishou-W (01024) demonstrated strong performance in Q2, with accelerated growth in advertising business and sustained momentum in Keling AI, which is expected to enhance advertising conversion rates through updates in AIGC marketing material solutions and a healthy user ecosystem [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Kuaishou's advertising business is anticipated to outperform peers, with online marketing service revenue expected to grow by 14% year-on-year in the second half of the year [1] - Keling AI generated over 250 million RMB in revenue in Q2, with the launch of the Keling 2.1 model series in May, which is believed to further solidify Kuaishou's leadership in the video large model sector [1] Group 2: Forecast Adjustments - Macquarie has raised its target price for Kuaishou by 7% to HKD 80.7, reflecting improvements in business structure and core business enhancement, while maintaining a "Outperform" rating [1] - Adjusted earnings per share forecasts for the next two years have been increased by 5% and 3% respectively, due to positive performance and strong advertising business outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings per share estimates for Kuaishou-W (01024) for the years 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 6%, and increased its target price from HKD 67 to HKD 76, maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The group's e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 18% in the second quarter, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - Over the past year, GMV growth has stabilized in the range of 13% to 14%, indicating a significant acceleration in growth [1] - The company has improved its monetization capabilities, with a positive outlook for a 15% GMV growth in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure guidance for this year has been raised from RMB 10 billion to RMB 12 billion, reflecting strong demand for AI applications and reasoning capabilities [1]