Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]

Group 1 - China Resources Land has launched two residential products in Chengdu, attracting significant market attention [1][2] - The Tianchen Shangyuan, as the first "fourth-generation villa" in the country, features innovative all-independent units and a unique architectural design that promotes a comprehensive upgrade of villa living in Chengdu [1][6] - The project covers approximately 72 acres and includes a deep renovation of about 17 acres of municipal park, resulting in a total scale of nearly 90 acres, making it one of the few low-density large-scale developments in the main city [1][5] Group 2 - Huachengfu, another project by China Resources Land in Chengdu, is positioned as a premium offering, benefiting from its location near the commercial axis of Wanxiang City and ecological resources [2][25] - The launch of these two products marks a new era for China Resources Land in the residential sector, transitioning from a city developer to a creator of living spaces [2][5] Group 3 - The Tianchen Shangyuan emphasizes a full-dimensional innovation in living spaces, with independent units and a design that enhances the living experience [6][9] - The project achieves a high usable area ratio, with the upper unit of 199 square meters having a usable area of approximately 150 square meters on the first floor and 122 square meters on the second floor, reaching a maximum usable area ratio of about 206% [9][12] Group 4 - The project incorporates a unique landscape design that enhances the private enjoyment of the adjacent municipal park, creating a rich and layered natural environment [13][15] - The community features a distinctive clubhouse designed to cater to various age groups, providing diverse recreational and social spaces [18][22] Group 5 - Huachengfu is strategically located in a prime area of Chengdu, benefiting from convenient transportation and surrounding mature commercial facilities [27][29] - The project introduces a black gold service system, offering comprehensive high-end services to meet the needs of high-net-worth individuals [31][33] Group 6 - The dual projects of Tianchen Shangyuan and Huachengfu represent a strategic layout by China Resources Land in Chengdu's core area, addressing the evolving demands of urban living [34]

Company Updates - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 868.5 billion for the first five months of 2025, with May sales at about RMB 183.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [1] - Vanke completed the sale of 72.96 million A-shares, raising a total of RMB 4.79 billion, with an average transaction price of RMB 6.57 per share [1] Market Developments - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves has exceeded RMB 100 billion this year, reaching RMB 1,083.48 billion as of June 10, 2025, covering 442 projects [2] - Guangzhou's real estate policy has been optimized to fully remove purchase, sale, and price restrictions, while also lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [3] Policy Initiatives - The Central Committee and State Council have issued guidelines to increase the supply of affordable housing and support social forces in operating long-term rental housing [2] - Guangzhou plans to advance the renovation of over 150 old residential communities and update more than 9,000 old elevators in 2025, with a fixed asset investment of RMB 100 billion for urban village renovations [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Resources Land reported a contract sales amount of 18.35 billion yuan in May, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發 表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承 擔任何責任。 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） (股份代號: 01109.HK) 截至2025年5月31日止一個月未經審核營運數據 華潤置地有限公司(「本公司」)董事會(「董事會」)謹此公佈，截至2025年5月31日止一個月，本公 司及其附屬公司(「本集團」)實現總合同銷售金額約人民幣183.5億元，總合同銷售建築面積約64.9 万平方米，分別按年减少11.4%及26.6%。2025年前5月累計合同銷售金額約人民幣868.5億元，總 合同銷售建築面積約322.2万平方米，分別按年减少6.3%及19.0%。 李欣 中國，二零二五年六月十二日 2025年5月，本集團經常性收入約人民幣40.9億元，按年增長6.2%，其中，經營性不動產業務租金 收入約人民幣26.9億元，按年增長13.0%。2025年前5月累計經常性收入約人民幣204.4億元，按年 增長9.6%，其中，經營性不動產業務租金收入約人民幣132.8億元，按年增長 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of restarting "stalled" real estate projects in various cities, highlighting government support and new investment as key factors in revitalizing these assets [1][12]. Group 1: Project Restart Examples - The Weida Tower in Foshan has resumed construction after being stalled for eight years, with 430 million yuan injected by a new investor following a bankruptcy restructuring process [3][4]. - The original Lotte project in Shenyang, which faced a similar halt since 2016, is being revitalized through a strategic partnership with China Resources Group, which aims to address the complex challenges of the project [5][6]. - In Zhengzhou, the "Shangshang Central Rise Tower" project is also set to restart, with local government involvement and a state-owned enterprise taking over the project [10][11]. Group 2: Revitalization Strategies - Various methods for revitalizing stalled projects include market-driven approaches, project transfers, debt restructuring, and government-led initiatives [9]. - The success of these revitalization efforts is closely tied to the quality of the projects and the ability to attract market-based funding [9]. - Challenges in the revitalization process include the willingness of investors to continue funding, fluctuations in market conditions affecting asset values, and complex debt relationships that may hinder progress [9]. Group 3: Government Support and Policy Impact - The acceleration in the handling of stalled projects is attributed to significant policy support from the government, including the establishment of special funds and debt recovery policies [12][13]. - Local governments are providing various forms of support to new investors, which has facilitated the progress of revitalization efforts across different regions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of "stalled" projects being restarted across various cities indicates a significant shift in the real estate market, driven by government support and new investment strategies [1][10][11] Group 1: Project Restart Examples - The Weida Tower in Foshan has officially resumed construction after being stalled for eight years, with an investment of 430 million yuan injected by a new investor [2][3] - The original Lotte project in Shenyang, which faced a halt since 2016, is now being revitalized through the involvement of China Resources Group, following a strategic cooperation agreement [4][5] - In Zhengzhou, the "Shang Shang Central Rise Tower" project is set to restart after years of inactivity, with local government initiatives facilitating its revival [8][9] Group 2: Mechanisms of Revitalization - Various methods are being employed to revitalize stalled projects, including market-driven approaches, project transfers, debt restructuring, and government-led initiatives [7] - The successful revival of projects often hinges on the quality of the underlying assets and the ability to attract market-based funding [7] - Government policies and financial tools, such as special funds and bonds, are crucial in accelerating the disposal of stalled assets and ensuring project completion [10][11]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 华人置地 (China Land) - **Industry**: Real Estate and Rare Earth Industry Key Points and Arguments China Land (华人置地) 1. **Investment Opportunity**: China Land is viewed as a good company that has been overlooked by many investors during the real estate downturn, with current valuations reflecting market concerns about property prices and economic factors like debt deflation and aging population [2] 2. **Strategic Shift**: The company is transitioning from being an asset owner to a higher-valued asset manager, which is seen as a strategic decision. The establishment of a public commercial REITs platform in Shenzhen is a significant step in this direction [3] 3. **Asset Value Potential**: China Land has approximately 40 billion in potential mall assets that can be split over the next 3-5 years, with a projected value increase of 20% over book value, potentially recovering around 29 billion [4] 4. **Future Growth**: The company is expected to expand its asset base by 90% to 174 malls by 2040, positioning itself as a leading mall operator in China's top-tier cities [4] 5. **Dividend Projections**: Predictions indicate a dividend yield exceeding 8% starting in 2030, based on operational income growth without relying on a recovery in the real estate market [5] 6. **Market Conditions**: Despite a weak macroeconomic environment, declining interest rates and stabilization in new home prices in first and second-tier cities may provide upside potential for profits and dividends [5] 7. **Preferred Stock**: China Land is classified as a preferred stock in the real estate sector, expected to offer the best risk-return profile over the next decade [6] Rare Earth Industry 1. **Strategic Importance**: The rare earth industry is highlighted as a critical component in the context of US-China trade negotiations, with China holding a significant position in global supply [7] 2. **Supply Chain Consolidation**: The rare earth mining sector in China has consolidated into two main companies, with production quotas set by the government to maintain supply-demand balance [8] 3. **Environmental Concerns**: The Chinese government aims to keep rare earth prices at a level that discourages overseas mining while ensuring domestic prices are competitive [8] 4. **Technological Leadership**: China has advanced in rare earth processing technologies, making it challenging for other countries to replicate this expertise [9] 5. **Export Regulations**: New regulations require export licenses for rare earth materials, complicating the supply chain for foreign companies [14] 6. **Global Supply Challenges**: It is estimated that it will take at least 3-5 years for other countries to significantly ramp up their rare earth mining capabilities, with some experts suggesting it could take over a decade [11][12] 7. **Market Dynamics**: The current export restrictions and licensing requirements have led to supply shortages for foreign manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector [15][16] Financial Sector Insights 1. **Financial Cycle Outlook**: The financial cycle is seen as stabilizing, with a shift from a risk management focus to a more development-oriented approach in the financial system [19][21] 2. **Real Estate Debt Management**: The financial sector has effectively managed real estate debt, with significant losses already absorbed, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [22] 3. **Regulatory Environment**: New regulations are being implemented to ensure that high-risk financing remains under control, particularly for platform companies [23] 4. **Banking Sector Recovery**: The banking sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with a focus on maintaining stable loan rates and reducing costs [30] 5. **Market Opportunities**: There are emerging opportunities in the financial sector due to structural adjustments, despite some ongoing pricing pressures [32] Other Important Content - The conference highlighted the importance of strategic shifts in both the real estate and rare earth industries, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments. - The discussions also pointed to a broader trend of recovery and stabilization in the financial sector, with implications for investment strategies moving forward.

Group 1: Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at maintaining a steady market expected to continue throughout the year [2][9] - The central government has set a tone for real estate policies to stabilize the market through urban renewal and the release of rigid and improvement demands [11][12] - The demand side is seeing policy adjustments to stimulate housing demand, including optimizing housing fund loan policies and increasing purchase subsidies [15][16] Group 2: Property Sector Insights - The property service sector is stabilizing, with a slowdown in management scale growth and stable property fee changes [3][6] - The financial performance of property services shows a prominent increase in revenue without a corresponding increase in profit, indicating a trend towards reliance on the parent company [3][6] Group 3: REITs and Investment Opportunities - The REITs sector is expanding rapidly, with a stable performance in consumer and affordable housing categories [4][6] - The issuance of special bonds for land acquisition is accelerating, with significant planned investments in idle land across various provinces [18][19] - The city village renovation policies are being implemented successfully, with several cities exploring or launching housing voucher policies for urban renewal [21][22] Group 4: Supply Side Developments - The standards for "good housing" are becoming clearer, with over 30 provinces and cities introducing new construction standards aimed at improving housing quality [23][24] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released guidelines focusing on the construction of high-quality residential projects [23][24] Group 5: Sales Trends - New home sales are expected to see a narrowing year-on-year decline, while the enthusiasm for second-hand homes is likely to persist [27][28] - The sales performance of top developers shows a concentration of sales among leading companies, with a slight year-on-year decrease in core city sales [32][34] - The market is experiencing significant polarization, with varying de-stocking effects across major cities [37][41] Group 6: Land Market Dynamics - The concentration of land sales in core cities is increasing, indicating a sustained interest from developers in acquiring land [45][46] - The land transaction volumes and prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou reflect a competitive land market [49][52]

华润置地在当前房地产市场疲软的情况下，其商业资产的表现如何？ 尽管房地产市场仍处于疲软状态，华润置地在 2024 年四季度以来经历了持续 6 个月的修复后，于 2025 年 4 月再次出现下滑。然而，华润置地目前处于历 史低位的估值水平已经充分反映了市场对房价以及中国债务通缩和人口老龄化 的担忧。华润置地已经成功转型为住宅与商业并重的地产运营商，截至 2024 年底，公司拥有 92 座已开业的重资产商场，其中 85%的商场以中高端消费为 主。此外，公司还有 23 座正在建设中的商场，预计在 2025 至 2028 年陆续开 业。作为中国规模最大且盈利能力最强的商场运营商之一，华润置地在 2022 年提出从资产拥有者逐步转向估值水平更高的资产管理者，这一战略性决定被 认为是正确且具有前瞻性的。 大摩闭门会-稀土、金融、房地产行业更新 20250611 摘要 华润置地已成功转型为住宅与商业并重的地产运营商，拥有 92 座已开 业商场，且有 23 座在建，预计未来几年陆续开业。公司战略性地从资 产拥有者转向资产管理者，有望提升估值水平。 华润置地通过深圳交易所的商业 REITs 平台进行首次扩募，预计未来 3- 5 ...