公司库存稳定，维持在一个月左右的现货水平，春节期间有例行检修安 排，一季度供应紧张程度较高，需关注下游库存消耗后的原料补充情况。 赣锋集团积极布局磷酸二氢锂、钾肥等新业务，其中钾肥项目规划年产 200 万吨，预计 2027 年投产，储能业务拓展国内外市场，固态电池领 域进行全面布局，推动低空经济等应用。 部不断抬高是大势所趋。从历史角度看，每轮周期底部都比上一轮高。此外， 由于行业开支低于预期导致供给跟不上需求变化，这一逻辑在当前周期再次得 到验证。 行业资本开支意愿及未来项目投产情况如何？ 赣锋锂业 20260112 摘要 赣锋锂业拥有约 5,000 万吨碳酸锂当量资源，计划到 2030 年形成 60 万吨产能，并积极拓展钾、磷等多元矿产资源，实现一体化发展，下游 电池业务预计 2025 年进入景气周期。 近期碳酸锂价格上涨超预期，主要受需求增长和供给不确定性影响，短 期内退税消息或刺激需求，长期来看，行业底部不断抬高，但需警惕非 市场化价格控制带来的风险。 尽管碳酸锂价格上涨，但行业资本开支意愿尚未显著提升，地缘政治因 素增加海外资源不确定性，新项目投产需时，预计 2025 年后的项目或 到 2027-2 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08% [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - Leading AI model companies saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31% and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% due to a strategic partnership with Didi [1] - Other AI-related stocks also performed well, including Mifengshi (02556) which rose by 18%, and AI pharmaceutical companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12% and Yidu Tech (02158) up over 8% [1] - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with expectations of significant revenue growth in FY2026 due to its AI initiatives [1] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, benefiting from accelerated AI model integration in industrial processes [1] Group 3: Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium (09696) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw increases of over 5% and 6% respectively, driven by export tax adjustments that may stimulate demand [1] Group 4: New Listings and Stock Movements - The new stock Hao Wei Group (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [2] - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a significant discount [2] Group 5: Regulatory Impact on Companies - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (Ningde Times) fell by 2.94% due to new battery export tax policies and rising lithium carbonate prices [3] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting profits [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08%. The morning trading volume reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] - Companies involved in AI large models saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31%, and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% after a strategic partnership with Didi to explore mobility agent scenarios [1] - The AI pharmaceutical sector also benefited from the surge in AI large models, with companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12%, and Yidu Tech (02158) increasing by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with its AI initiatives expected to significantly boost revenue for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, driven by accelerated full-process empowerment through industrial large models and the implementation of multi-agent collaboration in its AI Starry Sky suite [3] - New stock Haowei Group (603501) (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [4] Group 3 - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a discount of approximately 59.46% [5] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) (03750) fell by 2.94% due to the introduction of a new battery export tax rebate policy, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise [6] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting the profits of related companies [7]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced an upward trend in early trading, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 3.61% to HKD 54.55 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) also saw an increase of 3.19%, reaching HKD 58.30 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks have seen an early rise, driven by a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures and changes in export tax policies affecting battery products [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianqi Lithium (09696) rose by 4.46%, trading at 55 HKD [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased by 3.45%, trading at 58.45 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the upper limit with a 9% increase, reaching 156,060 RMB per ton [1] - Analysts suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April to "rush exports," positively impacting short-term lithium carbonate demand [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially increasing costs that may be passed on to end consumers, which could suppress long-term demand [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced an upward trend, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 4.46% to HKD 55 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increasing by 3.45% to HKD 58.45 [1] - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures hit the upper limit, increasing by 9% to CNY 156,060 per ton [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] Group 2 - Analysts from CITIC Futures suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April due to the upcoming changes in export tax policy, which could positively impact short-term demand for lithium carbonate [1] - The anticipated "rush to export" before the tax rebate cancellation may sustain demand for lithium carbonate until 2027, providing short-term price support [1] - However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially leading to increased costs that could suppress long-term demand [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses a new IPO from a company in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, focusing on energy storage, with a valuation of 4.3 billion [1] - The company is set to supply products to major players such as Ganfeng Lithium and State Grid, indicating strong industry connections and potential for growth [1] - The energy storage sector is highlighted as a rapidly growing market, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy solutions [1]

Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing renewed interest from investors due to clear profitability and order visibility in the supply chain, with a significant focus on achieving mass production by 2027 [2][3][6] - Major automotive companies are targeting 2027 for the application of solid-state batteries in vehicles, with many planning to complete product development or testing by 2026 [4][5] Industry Developments - Companies like Tian Shi Ke Feng have begun to engage with potential investors after overcoming initial funding challenges, with plans to expand production capacity significantly in 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has identified solid-state batteries as a key area for development, aiming to establish 3-5 leading companies by 2027 [3] Technical Challenges - The path to mass production of solid-state batteries is fraught with challenges, including material technology discrepancies and shortages in core equipment [6][8] - The industry is divided on material technology routes, with significant competition between oxide and sulfide electrolytes, each having distinct advantages and challenges [10][12] Material Innovations - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their high energy density and intrinsic safety, making them suitable for various applications, although their cost-effectiveness in electric vehicles remains a concern [7][8] - The development of silicon-carbon and lithium metal anodes is ongoing, with companies reporting progress in small-scale trials [9][10] Equipment and Production - The lack of mature mass production equipment poses a significant barrier, with many companies resorting to self-developed solutions to meet production demands [14][19] - The production process for solid-state batteries requires high precision and specialized equipment, which increases costs and complicates the manufacturing process [20][21] Market Dynamics - The solid-state battery supply chain is characterized by a collaborative approach among suppliers and manufacturers, with a focus on meeting evolving technical requirements from cell manufacturers [23][24] - The competitive landscape is marked by a "race" among cell manufacturers to explore various material suppliers, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation and adaptation [24]

Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report (December 29, 2025 - December 31, 2025): High - level Volatility in the Carbonate Lithium Market, Game between Weakening Demand Expectations and Cost Support" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the price of carbonate lithium will maintain a high - level shock pattern under the cost support and weakening demand expectations, with the center of gravity possibly moving slightly downward [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Conditions - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium spot dropped to 117,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.62%. The futures price of carbonate lithium decreased from 130,520 yuan/ton to 121,580 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.85%. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the basis was - 4,330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 57.21% week - on - week [2][4] - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide spot all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, coarse particles) increased from 102,400 yuan/ton to 109,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%; the price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, fine powder) increased from 107,600 yuan/ton to 114,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.60%; the price of lithium hydroxide (industrial carbon) increased from 97,100 yuan/ton to 104,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.31% [4] - **Carbonate Lithium Premium**: The weekly change in the premium of carbonate lithium from different raw materials and enterprises was 200 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The domestic carbonate lithium capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, and the production in December was expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.56 percentage points to 38.0% week - on - week, indicating some production line conversions or overhauls [2] Demand - **Mid - and Downstream Consumption**: The demand side showed differentiation. The operating rate of energy - storage cells remained high, but many leading cathode material manufacturers announced overhaul plans for January, indicating that the downstream demand might decline significantly month - on - month, and procurement turned to rigid demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The seasonal production reduction expectation of salt lakes constituted a potential supply disturbance, and the arrival of imported lithium concentrate at ports needed to be monitored [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased to 20,281 lots, a significant week - on - week increase of 13.55%. The inventory in major warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang Warehouse increased significantly, showing inventory accumulation pressure [2][41] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 124,744 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%. The production profit was - 7,494 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 20.91% week - on - week. The cost line provided some support for the current price [2] Lithium - battery Fundamentals - **Positive Electrode Materials**: Information on the market conditions, supply, demand, and cost - profit of positive electrode materials is included in the report, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided content [45][47][51][57] - **Lithium - battery Materials and Batteries Import and Export**: Information on the import and export of lithium - battery materials and batteries is included, but specific data is not elaborated [53][55] - **New Energy Vehicles**: Information on the production, sales, and other important data of new energy vehicles is included, but specific data is not elaborated [61][63] - **Lithium - battery Recycling**: Information on lithium - battery recycling is included, but specific data is not elaborated [59]