Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Nayuki (2150 HK) but cuts the target price to HK$ 3.43 [2][4] Core View - The report highlights that franchising and cost-cutting are key to Nayuki's strategy, despite a cautious outlook on the catering sector due to weakening macro demand and increased competition [2] - Nayuki's high cash level (over 75% of its market cap) and potential income from franchising are key reasons for the BUY rating [2] - The report expects a mixed FY24E outlook with pressure on topline growth but some room for margin improvement [2] Store Expansion and Performance - Nayuki's SSSG for Jan/Feb/Mar 2024 were -29%/-34%/-30%, worse than the 7% drop in 2H23, driven by a drop in both ASP and volume [2] - The store expansion plan for FY24E is conservative, with ~200 new self-operated stores and ~150 closures, resulting in a net increase of only a handful of stores [2] - For franchising, around 80 stores were opened in FY23, and the target for FY24E is 200-400 franchised stores, with a long-term goal of 2,000-3,000 new stores [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth for FY24E is forecasted at 14%, driven by a 3% increase in store counts (excluding franchise), a 6% increase in sales per store, and ramp-up of RTD and franchising business [2] - Net profit margin for FY24E is expected to improve to around 1.1%, supported by stable GP margin, cost control, and cautious investment in the RTD business [2] - The report cuts FY24E/25E net profit by 87%/72% due to slower self-operated store expansion and falling sales per store [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Nayuki is currently trading at 0.7x FY24E P/S and 20x FY25E P/E, with a target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31.3% upside from the current price of HK$ 2.61 [2][4] - The valuation method has been changed from 20x FY24E P/E to 1.0x FY24E P/S, applying a ~20% discount to peers' average of 1.2x [2] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue increased by 20% YoY to RMB 5.2bn, with net profit turning positive to RMB 13mn, but NP margin remained low at 0.3% [6] - In 2H23, sales growth slowed to 14%, and NP margin turned negative to -2.1%, driven by a sharp drop in ASP and volume [6] Earnings Revision - The report significantly revises down FY24E revenue and net profit estimates, with revenue now forecasted at RMB 5,877mn (-28.2% from previous estimates) and net profit at RMB 63.7mn (-86.9% from previous estimates) [7] Peer Comparison - Nayuki's valuation is compared to peers in the Greater China catering sector, with a 12-month target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31% upside [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - The company achieved profitability in 2023, with a revenue of 5.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [4]. - The gross margin stood at 67.1%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the adjusted net profit reached 20.91 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset operation model to accelerate growth and expand its store network, particularly in high-tier cities [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at HKD 2.61, with a market capitalization of HKD 44.76 billion [2]. - The stock has experienced a 52-week price range of HKD 2.40 to HKD 9.11 [2]. - The company's performance relative to the Hang Seng Index shows a decline of 16.61% over the past month [2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.16 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 3.46 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 67.1% [5][8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 was 20.91 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 0.4% [5][8]. - The company plans to open approximately 200 new stores in high-tier cities in 2024 [4]. Store Expansion and Operations - The company operated 1,574 direct stores by the end of 2023, with a net increase of 506 stores, representing a growth of 47.4% year-on-year [4]. - The average daily sales per store decreased by 14.7% to approximately 10,000 yuan, with a customer unit price decline of 13.7% [4]. - The registered membership reached 80.5 million by the end of 2023, with a monthly active member count of 4.7 million and a monthly repurchase rate of 23.9% [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are adjusted to 7.38 billion yuan and 9.25 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 42.9% and 25.4% [5][6]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach 268 million yuan in 2024 and 501 million yuan in 2025, with corresponding adjusted net profit margins of 3.6% and 5.4% [5][6]. - The company aims for a target market value of HKD 59-74 billion, with a target price range of HKD 3.5-4.3 [4].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [【Table_T广itle] 发批零社服&海外】奈雪的茶 [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 增持 当前价格 2.73港元 （02150.HK） 合理价值 3.04港元 前次评级 增持 单店模型优化，轻资产模式有望加速拓店 报告日期 2024-04-03 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  公司发布23年业绩：23年全年实现营业收入51.6亿元，同增20.3%； 2% 04/23 06/23 08/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 -13% 实现归母净利润1322.4万元，扭亏为盈（22年亏损4.7亿元）；经调 -28% 整净利润为2091.2万元，扭亏为盈（22年亏损4.6亿元）。 -42%  单店日销量价均有所承压。据公司财报，23年奈雪的茶直营店日均订 -57% 单量为 344.3 单，同比减少 1.1%；每笔订单平均销售额为 29.6 元， -72% 奈雪的茶 恒生指数 同比下滑13.7%，我们预计主要与新开门店较多、促销活动增加有关； 量价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth has slowed down, primarily due to adjustments in price range and product structure, leading to pressure on both volume and price. However, the bottled beverage business is experiencing rapid growth and is expected to become a new breakthrough area for the company. Profitability is being enhanced through continued cost control at both store and headquarters levels, indicating potential for further improvement [4]. - For the fiscal year 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.16 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.13 billion RMB, marking a return to profitability. The revenue from bottled beverages reached 0.27 billion RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 69.8% [4]. - The company plans to slow down the opening of new direct-operated stores in 2024 while accelerating franchise store openings. As of the end of 2023, there were 1,574 direct-operated stores, with a net increase of 506 stores [4]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.87 billion RMB, 6.58 billion RMB, and 7.33 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 12.1%, and 11.4% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.65 billion RMB, 1.63 billion RMB, and 2.75 billion RMB for the same years, with net profit margins of 1.1%, 2.5%, and 3.8% respectively [4][5]. - The operating profit margin for 2023 was 9.7%, with an expected increase to 12.3% in 2024 [5]. - The average sales value per order in 2023 was 29.6 RMB, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year, attributed to changes in product pricing and structure [4].

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|消费者服务II 证券研究报告 奈雪的茶(2150.HK)公司点评报告 2024年04月03日 [Tab年le_T度itle净] 利扭亏为盈，加盟提升拓店空间 [Table_Inves 增t] 持|维持 ——奈雪的茶(2150.HK) 2023年年度业绩点评 [事Ta件ble：_S ummary] [[基TTaa本bbll数ee__据BTaa rsgee]t Price] 公司发布2023年全年业绩。 52周最高/最低价（港币）：9 .1 / 2.4 港股流通股（百万股）： 1715.13 点评： 港股总股本（百万股）： 1715.13  全年经调整净利润实现扭亏为盈，奈雪的茶单店模型持续优化 流通市值（百万港币）： 4,562.24 2023 年，公司实现营业收入 51.64 亿元，同比增长 20.33%；全年经调整 总市值（百万港币）： 4,526.24 净利润为0.21亿元，较前一年实现扭亏为盈。分业务线看，现制茶饮业务 [[相TTaa关bbll研ee__究PDioc报cQR告ueop toe]r t] 全年实现收入37.77亿，同比增长20.46%，收入占 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 2023 年度业绩公告点评：同店承压，24 年加 2024 年 04月 01日 盟模式潜力可期 证券分析师 孙瑜 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 股价走势 营业总收入（百万元） 4,292 5,164 6,024 7,356 8,095 同比 -0.12% 20.33% 16.65% 22.12% 10.04% 奈雪的茶 恒生指数 归母净利润（百万元） -475.81 11.17 102.78 216.08 282.80 -2% -9% -16% 同比 89.48% 102.35% 820.51% 110.23% 30.88% -23% -30% -37% EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） -0.28 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.16 -44% -51% P/E（现价&最新摊薄） - 377.04 40.96 19.48 14.89 --- 765 258 %%% [关Ta键 ...

访问36氪出海网站letschuhai.com，获取更多全球商业相关资讯。 编辑絮语 2024年的第一个财报季伴随着春天而来。 越来越多中国企业开始将目光投向海外市场，这一趋势在大型企业中尤为明显。出海，已经不只是企业的第二增长曲线，也成了应对国内市场竞争的一种策 略。 SHEIN、速卖通、Temu、TikTok Shop 继续在全球购物应用增速榜上名列前茅；消费电子、新能源汽车领域展现出了复苏和增长的势头；游戏、短视频、短 剧等内容产品正在从东方向西方反向输出。 尽管出海之路充满挑战，我们仍能看到中国企业在继续探索和深入这一领域，寻求更广阔的发展空间。 新市场洞察 给中国创始人的全球化指南：水平地切开世界 全球市场观察，解析出海的多线叙事。 出口繁荣、销量低迷，国产电车还没撞开欧洲的铁墙 国产电车出口繁荣背后，欧洲市场为何不买账？中国车企的出海征途路漫漫。 再不出海中东，就晚了 中东为何成为了当下医疗创新企业出海最新的热土？出海热潮之下，中国药企又如何稳扎海外市场？ 90后，我在非洲做电商的酸甜苦辣 从蓝海到红海，中国创业者在非洲如何破局？ 行业大小事 理解抖音电商全球购，与中国消费市场共成长 2024年抖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 2.66 [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 5.164 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.33%. Adjusted net profit reached HKD 0.21 billion, a significant recovery from a loss of HKD 4.61 billion in the same period last year [2]. - The company's direct store revenue was HKD 4.692 billion, up 18.19% year-on-year, while bottled beverage revenue surged by 69.79% to HKD 0.267 billion. However, revenue from the lid business declined by 35.22% to HKD 0.053 billion [2]. - The company has expanded its store count significantly, adding 506 new direct stores in 2023, with a focus on first-tier and new first-tier cities [2]. - Despite a decline in average daily sales per store across all city tiers, the operating profit margin improved due to stable raw material costs and optimized labor and rental expenses [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was HKD 5.164 billion, with a growth rate of 20.33%. The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is HKD 3.23 billion, HKD 4.92 billion, and HKD 6.31 billion, respectively [3][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 0.01, HKD 0.19, HKD 0.29, and HKD 0.37 for 2023 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 319, 13, 9, and 7 [3][9]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company has opened 200 franchise stores as of February 2024, with a total of 1,230 first-class tea drink stores and 344 second-class tea drink stores by the end of 2023 [2]. - The franchise model is expected to accelerate store expansion and enhance profitability, with a more flexible store type and lower initial investment requirements [2]. Operational Efficiency - Average daily sales per store decreased across all city tiers, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 11.81% to HKD 12,700. However, the operating profit margin improved, with first-tier cities achieving a margin of 19.6%, up 6.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has optimized its cost structure, with labor costs and rent as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 3.2 percentage points and 1.0 percentage points, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Nayuki Holdings [2][8]. Core Insights - Nayuki achieved a revenue of RMB 5.16 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.3%, and turned a profit with an adjusted net profit of RMB 20.91 million, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 0.4% [8][9]. - The revenue from self-operated stores was RMB 4.69 billion, up 18.2% year-on-year, with daily sales per store averaging about RMB 10,000, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year [8][9]. - The company plans to open 200 new self-operated stores in 2024, primarily in top-tier cities, and aims to expand its franchise stores to 2,000-3,000 within the next 2-3 years [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross profit margin of 67.1% in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with estimates of RMB 268 million in 2024, RMB 501 million in 2025, and RMB 683 million in 2026 [8][9]. - The report forecasts total revenue to reach RMB 7.38 billion in 2024, RMB 9.25 billion in 2025, and RMB 10.94 billion in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 42.9%, 25.4%, and 18.3% respectively [4][9]. Market Position and Strategy - Nayuki's strategy includes a focus on light-asset operations for future store expansions, which is expected to enhance profitability [8][9]. - The company has demonstrated a commitment to optimizing its cost structure, with labor costs, rental costs, and delivery costs showing a downward trend [9]. - Nayuki's market presence is expanding, with a total of 1,574 self-operated stores by the end of 2023, an increase of 506 stores year-on-year [8][9].

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2023, Nayuki Holdings reported a revenue increase of approximately 20.3% to RMB 5,164.1 million, up from RMB 4,291.6 million in 2022[2]. - The adjusted net profit shifted from a loss of RMB 461.3 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB 20.9 million in 2023[2]. - The total revenue for the group was RMB 5,164.1 million, an increase of approximately 20.3% compared to RMB 4,291.6 million in 2022, primarily due to the continuous increase in the number of operating stores and the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in mainland China[27]. - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 218,970,000 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to a total comprehensive income of RMB 455,595,000 for the year ended December 31, 2022[117]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 11,166 thousand for the year, a significant recovery from a net loss of RMB 475,806 thousand in the previous year[66]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the sale of freshly made tea drinks was RMB 3,776,943,000, up 20.5% from RMB 3,135,326,000 in 2022[79]. - Revenue from bottled beverages increased to RMB 266,619,000, a rise of 69.8% compared to RMB 157,031,000 in 2022[79]. - Revenue from baked goods and other income reached RMB 1,120,494,000, an increase of 12.1% from RMB 999,229,000 in 2022[79]. - The ready-to-drink tea business generated revenue of RMB 4,897,437 thousand in 2023, up from RMB 4,134,555 thousand in 2022, reflecting a growth of approximately 18.5%[86]. Store Operations - The company opened approximately 200 franchise stores by the end of February 2024, focusing on lower-tier cities to explore new markets[2]. - As of December 31, 2023, Naixue operated 1,574 direct-operated stores, with a net addition of 506 stores during the year[16]. - The total number of stores in first-tier cities increased from 309 in 2022 to 398 in 2023[17]. - The average daily sales per store in first-tier cities was RMB 12.7 thousand, down from RMB 14.4 thousand in 2022, with an operating profit margin of 19.6%[19]. Cost Management - Material costs amounted to RMB 1,699.4 million, representing 32.9% of total revenue, which is a slight decrease from 33.0% in 2022, despite a 20.0% increase in material costs compared to the previous year[29]. - Employee costs were RMB 1,403.9 million, accounting for 27.2% of total revenue, down from 31.7% in 2022, due to improved human resource efficiency[31]. - The financing costs decreased to RMB 65,873 thousand in 2023 from RMB 80,326 thousand in 2022, showing a reduction of about 18%[90]. - The total depreciation expense for property and equipment increased to RMB 304,274,000 in 2023 from RMB 263,016,000 in 2022, an increase of 15.7%[91]. Market Expansion - The company plans to continue expanding its overseas market presence, having opened its first store in Thailand by the end of 2023[2]. - The company plans to enhance marketing efforts for classic products and expand franchise operations and overseas markets in 2024 to address ongoing demand pressures[25]. - The company has made strategic adjustments in response to changing consumer behavior and market conditions, particularly in the franchise business[2]. Liquidity and Financial Position - The group held cash and deposits totaling RMB 2,983.5 million as of December 31, 2023, with no interest-bearing borrowings, indicating strong liquidity for operations and expansion[26]. - The company's total equity as of December 31, 2023, stands at RMB 5,986,570,000, an increase from RMB 5,757,854,000 as of December 31, 2022[117]. - The debt-to-asset ratio increased to 36.0% as of December 31, 2023, compared to 31.3% in 2022, indicating a higher level of leverage[121]. Shareholder Information - The company did not declare or pay any dividends for the year ended December 31, 2023, consistent with the previous year[120]. - The company repurchased 3,509,500 shares at a price range of HKD 2.64 to HKD 3.07, totaling approximately RMB 9,420,000[116]. - The share capital remains at 5,000,000,000 ordinary shares with a par value of USD 0.00005 per share as of December 31, 2023[116]. Compliance and Governance - The financial statements were prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and compliance[73]. - The audit committee, chaired by Ms. Zhang Rui, reviewed the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2023[124]. - The company has maintained compliance with corporate governance codes, with recent adjustments to board composition to meet regulatory requirements[122].