Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The retail sales of clothing in January-February 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, significantly improving compared to the decline in November-December 2024 [2][13]. - E-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD, and Douyin reported strong growth in outdoor, women's wear, and home textiles, with sales growth rates of +48%, +31%, and +15% respectively in January-February 2025 [2][16]. - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports increased by 16.2% and 20.8% year-on-year in February, indicating a recovery in the export market [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The textile and apparel sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has outperformed the broader market since February, with notable stock price increases for companies like 361 Degrees (+18.67%) and TBOC (+16.02%) [1][12]. Brand Apparel Insights - Key brands such as KOLON, Biem.l.fdlkk, and Semir experienced sales growth exceeding 50% in January-February 2025, while brands like Salomon and HLA saw growth rates above 30% [2][17]. - The report highlights a positive trend in brand performance, with several companies expected to show improved revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - The report indicates that while the first quarter of 2024 had a high base, most manufacturing companies expect revenue growth in the high single to double digits for the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - Companies like Rihong and Juyuan are expanding their production capabilities, with Rihong's revenue in February 2025 up by 20.73% year-on-year [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with new growth drivers, such as Purcotton and HLA, and recommends companies with strong market share growth potential like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$16.68 [1][3][5]. Core Views - The report forecasts a revenue growth of 2.2% and a decline in net profit of 3.3% for 2024, with expected revenues of RMB 28.2 billion and net profits of RMB 3.08 billion [2][5]. - The company is entering a stable development phase, with projected revenue growth of 3.9% in 2025, reaching RMB 29.33 billion, and a net profit increase of 6.4% to RMB 3.28 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Li Ning are as follows: - 2024E Revenue: RMB 28,217 million, a 2.2% increase YoY - 2024E Net Profit: RMB 3,083 million, a 3.3% decrease YoY - 2025E Revenue: RMB 29,326 million, a 3.9% increase YoY - 2025E Net Profit: RMB 3,281 million, a 6.4% increase YoY [4][6][7]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in gross margin in 2H24, with an overall gross margin of 49.4% for 2024, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase YoY [1][2]. Valuation - The report maintains the earnings forecast and target price, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [3][5]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024E P/E: 13.5 - 2025E P/E: 12.1 - 2026E P/E: 11.4 [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The best investment opportunities in stocks often arise during periods of significant uncertainty, where the perceived risk is high but the actual risk may be lower than expected [1]. Case Study 1: NetEase - In 2001, NetEase's stock price fell from 15 to 1 due to market panic and a lawsuit, despite having cash reserves of 5.6 billion, which was twice its market value of 3 billion [2][3]. - Investor Duan Yongping saw four angles of opportunity: cash reserves, talent acquisition, potential in the gaming industry, and the extreme drop in stock price [4]. - The investment was characterized by a low downside risk and high upside potential, leading to a significant profit when the company turned around [5]. Case Study 2: Kweichow Moutai - From 1998 to 2003, Moutai's stock price fell significantly due to industry-wide issues, with market sentiment predicting a decline in demand for baijiu [6]. - Moutai's production was limited, and even if the overall industry declined, it could still maintain sales due to its premium positioning [7]. - The investment was seen as having limited downside risk and unlimited upside potential, resulting in a substantial increase in profits and market value over the following years [8]. Case Study 3: Great Wall Motors - In 2008, Great Wall Motors faced losses and market skepticism as it shifted focus to SUVs, a segment that was only 5% of the market at the time [10]. - The strategic pivot was based on the belief that SUVs would become a significant market segment, similar to trends seen in the U.S. [11]. - The investment was characterized by high potential returns, leading to a dramatic increase in profits and market capitalization in subsequent years [12]. Case Study 4: Li Ning - In 2015, Li Ning returned to a struggling company facing significant losses and stock price declines [13][14]. - The brand's strength and the cyclical nature of the apparel industry provided a foundation for potential recovery [15][16]. - The investment proved successful, with significant profit growth and market value increase over six years [17]. Case Study 5: Brilliance China Automotive - Brilliance's stock price fell over 90% from 2017 to 2022 due to market concerns about the automotive industry and its financial health [18]. - Despite the challenges, the company held a significant stake in BMW China and had substantial cash reserves, presenting a unique investment opportunity [19][20]. - The investment was characterized by limited downside risk and significant upside potential, resulting in a strong recovery in stock price [21]. Case Study 6: Xiaomi Group - In 2021, Xiaomi announced its entry into the automotive sector, leading to skepticism and a sharp decline in stock price [21][22]. - However, Xiaomi's advantages included a strong IoT platform and a capable leadership team, suggesting potential for future growth [23][24]. - The investment was viewed as having a high probability of success at a low price point, indicating significant upside potential [25]. Case Study 7: China Feihe - China Feihe's stock price fell significantly due to declining birth rates and market pessimism about the infant formula industry [25][26]. - The company maintained strong revenue and cash flow, with a solid market position and potential for growth in both domestic and international markets [27][28]. - The investment was characterized by limited downside risk and substantial upside potential, making it an attractive opportunity [29][30][31][32][33][34].

Market Overview - In February, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 index rise by 1.9%, while the textile and apparel sector increased by 1.3%[13] - The Hong Kong market's Hang Seng Index rose by 3.2%, with the textile and apparel sector index up by 2.9%[13] - The US market experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 index down by 1.4% and the consumer discretionary sector down by 9.4%[13] Brand Performance - In January, outdoor and women's apparel sales on Tmall, JD, and Douyin platforms saw significant growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 56% and 45%[19] - Notable brands such as KOLONSPORT and Bi Yin Le Fen achieved year-on-year sales growth of 81% and 101% respectively[24] - Major brands like Nike and Adidas reported year-on-year sales growth of 21% and 34% respectively on these platforms[24] Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports grew by 3.4% and 2.7% year-on-year in January, despite high base effects[2] - Key Taiwanese manufacturers like Yu Yuan and Zhi Qiang reported over 20% growth in January, with Yu Yuan achieving record revenue for the month[2] - Nanshan Zhishang's stock surged by 81.5% due to its involvement in robotic tendon materials, indicating strong future demand[16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued Hong Kong stocks and brands with new growth potential, such as All Cotton Era and Hai Lan Home[3] - For textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group are highlighted for their strong growth prospects and market share potential[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic weakness, international political and economic uncertainties, and significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The high-end outdoor sports market remains vibrant both domestically and internationally, with a notable shift in China's consumer market towards a more competitive landscape where strong brands outperform [4][25] - The report highlights the competitive advantages and moats of leading brands, recommending investments in Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy), while suggesting to pay attention to Biyinlefen (002832, Buy) and Baoxini (002154, Buy) [4][25] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a revenue of $5.183 billion for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance of 16-17% [7][8] - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, also above the guidance of 10.5-11% [7][8] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached $1.636 billion, a 23% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.1%, up 3.7 percentage points [9][19] Segment Performance - Functional apparel drove overall revenue growth in Q4 2024, with revenue of $745 million, a 33% increase year-on-year [12][14] - Outdoor apparel revenue was $594 million, up 13% year-on-year, primarily driven by Salomon brand [12][14] - Revenue from ball sports and racquet sports reached $296 million, a 22% increase year-on-year [13][14] Regional Insights - The Greater China region remains a key growth engine, with Q4 revenue increasing by 54% year-on-year, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 52% [16][19] - The Americas and EMEA regions saw revenue growth of 15% and 8% respectively [16][19] Future Guidance - For 2025, Amer Sports projects a revenue growth rate of 13-15%, with specific guidance for functional apparel at 20%, outdoor apparel in the low double digits, and ball sports in the low to mid double digits [21][22] - The company anticipates an operating profit margin of 11.5%-12% for 2025, leaning towards the lower end of the range due to macro uncertainties [21][22] Store Expansion Plans - Amer Sports plans to open 200 stores for the Arc'teryx brand in North America, 75-100 in Europe, 75-100 in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), and 150-200 in China by 2025 [24][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$16.68 [1][4][5] Core Views - The report projects a revenue growth of 2.2% and a decline in net profit of 3.3% for 2024, with expected revenues of RMB 28.2 billion and net profits of RMB 3.08 billion [2][5] - The company is entering a stable development phase, with a forecasted revenue increase of 3.9% to RMB 29.33 billion and a net profit increase of 6.4% to RMB 3.28 billion for 2025 [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, revenue is expected to grow by 2.2% to RMB 28.2 billion, while net profit is projected to decline by 3.3% to RMB 3.08 billion [2][5] - For 2025, revenue is forecasted to increase by 3.9% to RMB 29.33 billion, and net profit is expected to rise by 6.4% to RMB 3.28 billion [2][3] Financial Data Summary - The financial data for Li Ning shows a revenue of RMB 27.6 billion for 2023, with projections of RMB 28.2 billion for 2024 and RMB 29.3 billion for 2025 [4][6] - The net profit for 2023 is recorded at RMB 3.19 billion, with expectations of RMB 3.08 billion for 2024 and RMB 3.28 billion for 2025 [4][6] Valuation and Earnings - The report maintains the earnings forecast and target price, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [3][5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 1.19, for 2025 is RMB 1.27, and for 2026 is RMB 1.34 [4][5]

奢侈品 Q4 中国区表现回升，关注文化纸节后普遍提价 ——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn | | | | 上市公司数 | 154 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 8,987.57 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 7,726.31 | 1、《关税预期 price in，关注 AI 眼镜 和线下特卖行业机遇》2025-02-10 2、《24 年全球 AI 眼镜销量超 200 万台，嘉益、匠心、索菲亚、台华等 披露业绩预告》2025-01-27 3、《李宁重获中国奥委会合作，海 澜京东奥莱线下特卖供需两旺》 2025-01-20 轻工制造 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5]. Core Views - The company has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation for the 2025-2028 period, which is expected to enhance its brand image and marketing efforts [2][4]. - In the fourth quarter, the company's e-commerce sales growth accelerated, with a reported increase of 26% compared to the previous quarter [3][7]. - The company launched a new midsole technology called "超䨻" in November, introducing six new basketball and running shoe models featuring this innovation [11][12]. - Despite short-term pressures on profitability due to increased marketing expenses related to the Olympic partnership, the company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its product competitiveness and growth potential in the mid to long term [3][16]. Summary by Sections Company Partnership - On January 15, 2025, the company was announced as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the sports delegation for the upcoming Olympic and Asian Games [2][4]. Sales Performance - The fourth quarter saw a significant improvement in sales performance across various platforms, with the company’s e-commerce sales growing by 26% compared to the previous quarter [3][7]. - The overall sales growth for the sports brand sector in the fourth quarter showed a positive trend, with other brands also reporting improved sales figures [7]. Product Innovation - The introduction of the "超䨻" technology is expected to lead the industry in innovation, with new products designed to enhance performance for athletes [11][12]. Financial Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 3.06 billion, 3.06 billion, and 3.42 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -4.1%, 0.0%, and +11.9% [3][18]. - The target price remains at 17.9-19.2 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14-15x for 2025 [3][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - The company has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation for the 2025-2028 period, indicating a strong brand positioning and recognition in the sports industry [1]. - The company focuses on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multi-channel" strategy, emphasizing its commitment to sports and innovation across five core categories: running, basketball, fitness, badminton, and sports lifestyle [2]. - The company aims to be recognized globally as a fashionable and professional sports brand originating from China, promoting sports participation and a healthy lifestyle through various initiatives and events [3]. - The opening of the first youth sports store in Wuhan marks the company's strategic expansion into the youth sports market, showcasing its commitment to supporting youth sports development [4]. - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 28.4 billion RMB, 29.8 billion RMB, and 31.8 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 3.1 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 4.0 billion RMB respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has secured a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee for the upcoming Olympic cycles, enhancing its brand visibility and credibility in the sports sector [1]. Business Strategy - The company adopts a comprehensive strategy that includes a focus on innovation and consumer experience, ensuring sustainable growth while expanding its market presence [2]. Brand Engagement - The company is actively engaging consumers through campaigns that promote sports participation and highlight its technological advancements in sports equipment [3]. Market Expansion - The launch of a dedicated youth sports store reflects the company's strategic focus on the youth segment, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [4]. Financial Projections - The company has set ambitious financial targets for the next three years, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory and market positioning [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 15.48 and a target value of HKD 19.11 [5]. Core Views - The company has partnered with the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is expected to enhance its brand value. It will provide official sportswear for major events from 2025 to 2028, including the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [10]. - The company is anticipated to achieve stable growth in 2025, with improvements in discount and gross margin. Despite increased marketing expenses, the net profit margin is expected to remain above 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, particularly through direct sales, and is expected to launch more cost-effective products in response to consumer trends [10]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is CNY 30.7 billion, CNY 30.4 billion, and CNY 33.7 billion, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 15 for 2025, leading to a target value of HKD 19.11 per share [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 25.803 billion in 2022 to CNY 30.306 billion in 2026, with a growth rate of 14.3% in 2022, slowing to 6.0% by 2026 [4][14]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from CNY 5.162 billion in 2022 to CNY 6.906 billion in 2026, with a notable dip in 2023 [4][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from CNY 4.064 billion in 2022 to CNY 3.374 billion in 2026, reflecting a challenging market environment [4][14]. - The company's EPS is projected to decrease from CNY 1.54 in 2022 to CNY 1.31 in 2026, indicating a potential decline in profitability [4][14]. Key Financial Ratios - The report highlights a decrease in ROE from 16.7% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, suggesting a decline in return on equity [13]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 15.7% in 2022 to 11.1% in 2026, indicating potential profitability challenges [13]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to improve from 27.7% in 2022 to 23.8% in 2026, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [13].