Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition in the food delivery and instant retail market, primarily driven by Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale, which has prompted major players like Meituan and JD to engage in aggressive subsidy wars [1][10]. Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Alibaba announced a substantial investment of 50 billion RMB for subsidies in the instant retail sector over the next 12 months, significantly escalating competition [10]. - Meituan responded with its own subsidy plans shortly after Alibaba's announcement, while JD also committed over 10 billion RMB for the same period [10]. - As of early July, Meituan's daily order volume reached a record high of 120 million, while Alibaba's daily orders surged to 80 million within two months [10]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Morgan Stanley highlighted that Alibaba's financial strength, with nearly 100 billion RMB in free cash flow and around 600 billion RMB in cash equivalents by March 2025, positions it favorably in this competitive landscape [11]. - The report suggests that the ongoing subsidy war will negatively impact the short-term profitability of all involved companies, including Alibaba, Meituan, and JD [14][18]. Group 3: Market Potential and Valuation - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Chinese instant retail market could reach a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of 4 trillion RMB by 2030, with industry profits estimated at 81 billion RMB [13]. - The report outlines two scenarios: an optimistic one where the market grows as expected, making current investments justifiable, and a pessimistic one where the market only reaches half the expected size, rendering the investments overly aggressive [15]. Group 4: Market Share Dynamics - Prior to the intensified competition, Meituan held approximately 45% of the market share, with Alibaba's Ele.me at 21% and JD at 5% [16]. - Despite the competitive pressures, Meituan is expected to maintain its market leadership, although its market share may decline due to the growth of instant retail, which is a new revenue stream for Meituan but could cannibalize traditional e-commerce for Alibaba and JD [16]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Adjustments - In light of the competitive uncertainties, Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings forecasts for Alibaba and Meituan, adjusting their target prices accordingly [20]. - The report indicates a preference order for investment in the instant retail sector: Alibaba > Meituan > JD, reflecting the competitive advantages and financial resources of each company [14].

Group 1 - The new round of "takeaway subsidy war" has reignited, initiated by Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase, forcing industry giants Meituan and JD to respond [1] - Alibaba announced a 50 billion RMB investment in subsidies for takeaway and instant retail over the next 12 months, leading to a chain reaction in the market [1] - As of early July, Meituan's daily order volume reached a record high of 120 million, while Alibaba's daily order volume reached 80 million within two months [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley believes that the competitive initiative has shifted to Alibaba, which has significant financial resources, including nearly 100 billion RMB in free cash flow and close to 600 billion RMB in cash equivalents by the end of March 2025 [2] - This financial strength positions Alibaba favorably in the ongoing consumption battle, creating significant competitive pressure on Meituan and JD [2] Group 3 - The intense "burning money" competition raises the question of whether such investments are worthwhile, depending on the long-term potential of the instant retail market [3] - Morgan Stanley presented two scenarios: if the instant retail market reaches 4 trillion RMB by 2030, the current investment is justified; if it only reaches half that, the investment appears overly aggressive [3][4] - Alibaba's substantial cash reserves and free cash flow give it a competitive edge, while Meituan and JD face challenges [3] Group 4 - In an optimistic scenario, the instant retail market's GMV is projected to reach 4 trillion RMB by 2030, with industry profits at 81 billion RMB [4] - In a pessimistic scenario, if the market's long-term GMV is only 2 trillion RMB, the terminal value would drop to 338 billion RMB, making the first year's total loss potentially reach 85 billion RMB [5] Group 5 - Prior to the intensified competition, Meituan held approximately 45% market share, with Ele.me (Alibaba's platform) at 21% and JD at 5% [6] - Despite increased competition, Meituan is likely to maintain its market leadership, although its market share may decline [6] - Instant retail growth will be incremental for Meituan, while it will cannibalize traditional e-commerce for Alibaba and JD [6] Group 6 - The investment expansion will directly impact short-term profitability, leading to stock price pressure for all involved companies [7] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Alibaba, Meituan, and JD's stock prices will face downward pressure in the next 3 to 6 months due to lowered profit expectations [7] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has significantly lowered its adjusted EPS forecasts for Alibaba for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 22% and 11%, respectively, and reduced Meituan's operating profit forecast for 2025 by 15% [9] - Target prices for Alibaba have been adjusted downwards, with the US target price reduced from $170 to $140 and the Hong Kong target price from HKD 165 to HKD 135 [9] - Meituan's target price has also been lowered from HKD 160 to HKD 150 while maintaining an "overweight" rating [9]

Core Insights - Major platforms like Meituan and Taobao are issuing significant food delivery coupons, indicating a competitive strategy to attract customers [1] - Consumers are actively sharing their experiences of obtaining "zero-cost" items, showcasing the effectiveness of these promotional campaigns [1] Company Strategies - Meituan and Taobao have launched new promotional campaigns featuring high-value coupons for food delivery services [1] - The issuance of "0 yuan" coupons is a tactic to increase user engagement and drive sales through discounts [1] Consumer Behavior - Users are taking advantage of these promotions, with reports of orders being placed for minimal costs, such as 0.01 yuan for a drink [1] - The trend of sharing successful coupon redemptions on social media highlights the growing consumer interest in promotional offers [1]

Core Insights - The ongoing subsidy war among major internet giants in the food delivery sector has intensified, with significant promotional offers leading to record order volumes [1][2] - Taobao Flash Sale has committed 500 billion yuan in subsidies to stimulate merchant sales and consumer demand, resulting in a substantial increase in order numbers [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery subsidy competition has seen Meituan surpass 1 billion daily orders and Ele.me exceed 80 million orders, while JD's food delivery service has achieved nearly 200 million orders in just four months [1] - Taobao Flash Sale reported over 8 million daily orders within three days of announcing its subsidy program, with non-food orders exceeding 13 million [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The number of cities with daily order volumes exceeding 1 million on Taobao Flash Sale has doubled in the past week, indicating a surge in urban consumer enthusiasm [2] - Cities such as Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chengdu have experienced over 100% growth in orders since the launch of Taobao Flash Sale, with some third and fourth-tier cities seeing order growth of over 300% [2] Group 3: Economic Impact - The 500 billion yuan subsidy is projected to unlock consumption growth of at least 1 trillion yuan, enhancing urban consumption vitality [2] - The income of delivery riders has increased by 50% compared to five months ago, reflecting the positive economic impact of the subsidy war [2] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition among the three major internet companies has escalated, with a combined investment of 25 billion yuan in the second quarter, surpassing previous price wars [2]

Core Insights - The recent surge in food delivery orders is attributed to a sudden increase in subsidies from platforms like Alibaba and JD, leading to a chaotic situation for restaurants and delivery personnel [1][3][4] - The competition among major platforms, including Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, has intensified, resulting in significant fluctuations in order volumes and delivery rider earnings [3][11][15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The weekend's order spike was not coincidental; all three major food delivery platforms have been investing resources since Q1, expanding market capacity and increasing consumer engagement [4][10] - The introduction of a promotional event called "Super Saturday" by Alibaba aims to create a new consumer holiday, offering substantial cash redemptions for food delivery [3][12] Group 2: Financial Implications - Following the weekend's subsidy battle, stocks of various food and beverage companies surged, with Cha Bai Dao rising by 15% and Nayuki Tea by over 10% [5] - Despite the apparent increase in order volume, many merchants express concerns about the sustainability of profits due to high fixed costs and the potential for reduced orders once subsidies diminish [5][6] Group 3: Delivery Riders' Perspective - Delivery riders have experienced a temporary boost in earnings due to subsidies, but they face uncertainty as the platforms' subsidy policies fluctuate unpredictably [7][9] - The influx of new riders attracted by high subsidies may lead to increased competition and pressure on earnings once the promotional activities cease [9][10] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition is not limited to food delivery; it extends to the broader instant retail market, with platforms vying for consumer attention and market share [11][15] - New entrants like Pinduoduo are also testing the waters in the instant delivery space, indicating that the battle for market dominance is far from over [15]

Market Overview - On July 11, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.46%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 181.99 billion, comprising HKD 91.87 billion in buying and HKD 90.12 billion in selling, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 1.74 billion [2][3] Southbound Trading Details - Southbound trading through the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a total turnover of HKD 63.32 billion, with net buying of HKD 3.94 billion, while the Shanghai Stock Connect recorded a turnover of HKD 118.67 billion, resulting in a net outflow of HKD 2.20 billion [2][3] Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock by southbound funds was Zhongzhou Securities, with a total turnover of HKD 11.69 billion. Other notable stocks included Guotai Junan International and Juxing Legend, with turnovers of HKD 11.51 billion and HKD 6.74 billion, respectively [2][3] - The top net buying stocks included Meituan-W with a net inflow of HKD 715 million, followed by China Ping An with HKD 524 million and Hong Kong Exchanges with HKD 255 million. Conversely, Xiaomi Group-W experienced the highest net outflow of HKD 738 million [2][3] Continuous Net Buying - Three stocks have seen continuous net buying for over three days, with the longest streak being 16 days for SMIC, followed by Meituan-W with 5 days and Juxing Legend with 3 days. The total net buying amounts were HKD 8.16 billion for SMIC, HKD 3.88 billion for Meituan-W, and HKD 416 million for Juxing Legend [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Meituan's "Ask a Doctor" video consultation service enhances patient access to healthcare by allowing direct communication with top-tier hospital doctors from home, significantly increasing consultation volume [1][3]. Group 1: Service Features - The new video consultation feature allows patients to connect with doctors via video or phone, facilitating efficient communication about medical conditions without leaving home [1]. - The service includes two main components: "Instant Ask a Doctor," which offers 24/7 access to top hospital doctors with an average response time of 30 seconds, and "Expert Video Consultation," which allows patients to schedule appointments with renowned doctors from top hospitals [3]. - The service has been integrated with nearly 1,000 top-tier hospitals across various specialties, ensuring availability of expert consultations in fields such as dermatology, obstetrics, pediatrics, and respiratory medicine [3]. Group 2: User Demographics and Demand - The first week of the video consultation service saw a nearly 100% increase in consultation volume compared to the testing phase, with dermatology, gastroenterology, ENT, respiratory, and pediatrics being the top five specialties consulted [4]. - The service primarily attracts young and middle-aged users, addressing the needs of busy professionals seeking quick consultations for minor health issues, while also catering to parents and elderly individuals, with over 20% of users being caregivers [4][5]. - Online consultations are increasingly recognized as a valuable alternative for patients in remote areas, busy professionals, and those with mobility issues, providing a time-saving and efficient healthcare option [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai traffic management department has introduced a "Traffic Safety Code" management mechanism for delivery riders, using a three-color system (green, yellow, red) to indicate safety levels, which directly affects their employment qualifications and performance assessments [1] Group 1: Regulatory Measures - The new mechanism aims to enhance traffic safety awareness among riders, delivery stations, and platform companies through measures such as order restrictions and performance evaluations [1] - Meituan has begun promoting the safety code among riders in Shanghai, implementing educational measures and order restrictions based on the severity of traffic violations [1][3] Group 2: Incentives for Compliance - Meituan is also introducing positive incentives for riders who comply with traffic regulations, incorporating traffic safety performance into their assessment system across over 100 cities [3] - Riders can earn safety points for maintaining safe driving practices, with potential rewards reaching up to thousands of yuan monthly, along with additional benefits like exemption cards and discount coupons [3][4] Group 3: Impact on Delivery Efficiency - During the trial period, over 20,000 riders benefited from the program, with a reported 26% decrease in red-light violations among dedicated riders, while maintaining stable delivery punctuality rates [4] - Meituan has implemented several measures to alleviate delivery pressure, including changing delivery time displays to time ranges and upgrading algorithms to consider various factors affecting delivery times [4]

Core Insights - On July 11, 2025, Zhongzhou Securities (01375), Guotai Junan International (01788), and Juxing Legend (06683) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 85.75 billion, 83.76 billion, and 51.63 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Guotai Junan International (01788), Zhongzhou Securities (01375), and Alibaba-W (09988) led the trading volume, with amounts of 31.31 billion, 31.15 billion, and 22.84 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect (Shanghai-Hong Kong) - Top active trading companies included: - Zhongzhou Securities (01375): 85.75 billion, net buy of +2.29 billion - Guotai Junan International (01788): 83.76 billion, net sell of -131.407 million - Juxing Legend (06683): 51.63 billion, net sell of -127.556 million - Alibaba-W (09988): 37.09 billion, net sell of -9.13 billion - Meituan-W (03690): 23.18 billion, net buy of +4.02 billion [2] Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen-Hong Kong) - Top active trading companies included: - Guotai Junan International (01788): 31.31 billion, net buy of +1.84 billion - Zhongzhou Securities (01375): 31.15 billion, net sell of -45.3737 million - Alibaba-W (09988): 22.84 billion, net buy of +7.30 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700): 18.63 billion, net sell of -66.2962 million - Juxing Legend (06683): 15.78 billion, net buy of +1.48114 million [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 11, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 1.744 billion HKD from northbound trading, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net outflow of 2.197 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showing a net inflow of 3.941 billion HKD [1] - The most bought stocks by northbound investors included Meituan-W (03690), Ping An of China (02318), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) [1] - The most sold stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Alibaba-W (09988), and Tencent (00700) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Meituan-W (03690) received a net inflow of 715 million HKD, while Alibaba-W (09988) faced a net outflow of 183 million HKD [4] - Ping An of China (02318) saw a net inflow of 523 million HKD, benefiting from the Ministry of Finance's enhanced long-term assessments for state-owned commercial insurance companies [5] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) experienced a net inflow of 255 million HKD, supported by continued inflows from southbound funds and increased IPO activity [5] Group 3: Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw net inflows, with Zhongzhou Securities (01375) and Guotai Junan (02611) receiving net inflows of 183 million HKD and 2.06 million HKD, respectively [6] - The IPO market remains robust, with June seeing 150 IPO applications, accounting for 85% of the total for the first half of the year [6] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a significant net outflow of 738 million HKD, despite reporting over 300,000 cumulative deliveries of its electric vehicles [6]