Core Insights - A significant amount of fixed deposits, estimated at 50 trillion yuan, is set to mature this year, prompting discussions on where these funds will be allocated in a low-interest-rate environment [3][8][10] Group 1: Deposit Maturity Trends - Multiple brokerages estimate that the total amount of fixed deposits maturing this year will reach tens of trillions of yuan, with projections varying among institutions [8][9] - Guotai Junan Securities estimates that 38% of the total deposits at the six major state-owned banks will mature within the next year, with a significant portion concentrated at the end of 2025 and early 2026 [8] - CITIC Securities predicts that the scale of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 could reach 45 trillion yuan, with over 35 trillion yuan being from three-year products initiated in 2023 [9] Group 2: Investment Preferences - As depositors face declining interest rates, there is a noticeable shift towards alternative investment options, including funds and insurance products [10][11] - The demand for insurance products, particularly dividend insurance, is expected to increase due to their stable return characteristics, which are becoming scarce in the current market [10] - The report suggests that the funds released from maturing deposits will likely flow into investment areas, with a preference for stable and low-risk products in the short term [10][11] Group 3: Individual Investor Behavior - Individual investors exhibit varied responses to maturing deposits, with some opting to reinvest in fixed deposits for security, while others are exploring more aggressive investment strategies [4][5][6] - Investors like Mr. Wang are transitioning from fixed deposits to funds and securities, driven by the desire for higher returns, despite experiencing anxiety over market fluctuations [4][6] - Conversely, conservative investors like Mr. Yu prefer to maintain their funds in fixed deposits, valuing simplicity and security over potential higher returns [5][6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant impact of AI on global economic growth and stock market performance, particularly in the U.S. and China, highlighting the importance of AI investments in driving GDP growth and stock returns [1][11]. Economic Contribution - U.S. technology hardware and software investments are projected to contribute 0.8 percentage points to the annualized GDP growth of 2.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - Since 2023, U.S. non-farm business sector labor productivity has increased by 7.2% [4]. Stock Market Performance - Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, the "Magnificent Seven" stocks in the U.S. contributed 45 percentage points to the S&P 500 index returns, accounting for over half of the total returns [1]. - In Hong Kong, seven leading tech stocks contributed 14 percentage points to the Hang Seng Index returns, representing 40% of the total returns since the launch of DeepSeek in early 2025 [7]. AI Industry Dynamics - The U.S. has a first-mover advantage in AI infrastructure, models, and talent, while China is rapidly catching up, particularly in open-source models [16][19]. - The global cloud computing market is expected to reach $692.9 billion in 2024, with North America holding a 54.3% market share and China at 16.8% [20]. Investment Landscape - U.S. nominal investment in AI technology hardware and software is approximately $1.05 trillion, accounting for 3.4% of nominal GDP, while China's investment is around $650 billion, also about 3.3% of nominal GDP [42]. - The AI investment landscape shows that the U.S. is primarily driven by private sector investments, while China's investments are significantly supported by government funding [52]. Funding Sources - U.S. AI investments are predominantly led by the private sector, with a total investment of $552 billion, compared to China's $900 billion, which includes substantial government support [52]. - The Chinese government has invested approximately $750 billion in AI, significantly higher than the U.S. government's $110 billion [57]. Investment Focus - U.S. investments are heavily focused on data centers and supporting infrastructure, while China is investing more in chip development and AI models [58]. - In 2025, U.S. leading companies are expected to invest $4 billion in the foundational layer, with 88% directed towards infrastructure [59]. Talent and Research - The number of AI researchers in China has grown significantly, with Chinese researchers holding three times as many AI patents as their U.S. counterparts [41]. - The rapid increase in AI talent in China is enhancing its research capabilities, narrowing the gap with the U.S. [41]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the U.S. will continue to invest heavily in data centers and energy equipment, which will drive demand for related supply chains in China [88]. - China's ongoing need for chips and AI infrastructure indicates a sustained demand and policy support in the semiconductor sector [88].

Core Viewpoint - Changying Precision announced the appointment of a new representative for ongoing supervision of its stock issuance project for 2023, ensuring continuity in oversight responsibilities [2] Group 1 - Changying Precision has appointed CICC as the sponsor for its 2023 stock issuance project [2] - Wu Xiaowu has stepped down from his role as the ongoing supervising representative due to internal work adjustments [2] - Liu Jiajie has been appointed to replace Wu Xiaowu and will continue to fulfill the ongoing supervision duties [2]

Group 1 - Recent net redemptions in A-share broad-based ETFs have drawn market attention, with significant outflows recorded on January 15 and 16, totaling 687 billion and 863 billion respectively, marking the highest single-day outflows in history [1] - As of January 19, four out of six major broad-based ETFs saw their shares decline by over 10% in the last three trading days, with the largest, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, dropping to 778.63 billion shares, a scale of approximately 369.2 billion, the lowest since August 2024 [1] - The ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs also experienced significant declines, with the E Fund STAR 50 ETF and E Fund ChiNext ETF seeing share reductions of 34.55% and 20.22% respectively [3] Group 2 - In contrast to the outflows from broad-based ETFs, certain commodity, cross-border, and narrow-based ETFs attracted significant inflows, with the Southern Nonferrous ETF being the only product to receive over 10 billion in net inflows, totaling 100.87 billion, driven by rising base metal prices [3] - Other ETFs such as Yongying Satellite ETF, Harvest Software ETF, and GF Media ETF also received net inflows exceeding 6 billion [3] - According to CITIC Securities, the impact of ETF redemptions on individual stocks was significant, with main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market stocks experiencing sell-offs of 946 billion, 334 billion, and 265 billion respectively during the peak outflow days [3] Group 3 - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market following rapid price increases and overheated sentiment, including raising the minimum margin requirement for margin trading from 80% to 100% [5][6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for comprehensive market monitoring and timely counter-cyclical adjustments to maintain market stability and prevent excessive volatility [6] - There are differing views on the long-term outlook for A-shares, with some analysts suggesting the potential for a slow bull market due to reforms, while others remain skeptical about escaping historical volatility patterns [7]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Financing - The Hong Kong stock market has seen active financing since the beginning of the year, with equity financing reaching HKD 39.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 316.27% [1] - In 2025, the equity financing scale in the Hong Kong primary market reached HKD 612.7 billion, up 248.8% year-on-year [1] - Chinese securities firms are increasingly dominating the equity underwriting business, holding six of the top ten positions in underwriting amounts, with a combined market share of 56.15% [1] - CICC led the IPO sponsorship with an underwriting scale of HKD 51.65 billion, followed by CITIC Securities (Hong Kong) with HKD 46.03 billion [1] - The active financing environment is expected to enhance the revenue outlook for securities firms and boost the valuation recovery of the securities sector [1] Group 2: Changes in Western Securities Research Department - Mu Qiguo has resigned as the head of the research institute at Western Securities, with Zhao Yinghua, the vice president in charge of the research institute, taking over [2] - The change reflects the higher demands for research capabilities under the company's "14th Five-Year" strategic plan, indicating a focus on long-term development and resource optimization [2] - Mu Qiguo will focus on intelligent investment research and the establishment of the Hong Kong subsidiary's research business, which may enhance the competitiveness of the brokerage sector in digital transformation [2] Group 3: Insurance Asset Management Registration - In 2025, insurance asset management institutions registered 314 debt investment plans, equity investment plans, and private equity funds, with a total scale of CNY 510.44 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 20.71% in quantity and 26.08% in scale [3] - The number of debt investment plans decreased significantly, which may impact financing in infrastructure and related sectors [3] - The growth in equity investment plans, with a 12.52% increase in scale, indicates a shift of insurance capital towards equity markets, positively influencing the long-term investment environment [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in equity financing activities, with a total of HKD 390.9 billion raised as of January 19, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 316.27% [1] - In 2025, the total equity financing scale in the Hong Kong primary market reached HKD 6,127 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 248.8% [1] - Chinese securities firms are increasingly dominating the equity underwriting business in the Hong Kong market, holding six out of the top ten positions in underwriting amounts, with a combined market share of 56.15% [1] Group 2 - Mu Qiguo has stepped down as the head of the research institute at Western Securities, with Zhao Yinghua taking over the role [2] - The leadership change reflects the updated requirements of the company's "14th Five-Year" strategic plan for research and development capabilities [2] - Mu Qiguo will focus on the company's intelligent investment research and the establishment of research operations for its Hong Kong subsidiary [2] Group 3 - In 2025, insurance asset management institutions registered a total of 314 debt and equity investment plans and private equity funds, with a total scale of CNY 510.443 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 20.71% in quantity and 26.08% in scale [3] - The number of debt investment plans decreased significantly to 285, with a scale of CNY 441.905 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24% and 28.46% respectively [3] - Conversely, the number of equity investment plans increased to 22, with a scale of CNY 33.532 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 83.33% in quantity and 12.52% in scale [3]

Core Viewpoint - Junlebao has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and Morgan Stanley serving as joint sponsors. The company ranks third among comprehensive dairy product companies in China, holding a market share of 4.3% in 2024 [1]. Company Overview - In 2024, Junlebao ranks second in the low-temperature liquid milk market with a market share of 14.5% and third in the fresh milk market with a market share of 10.6%. The "Yuexianhuo" brand has become the leading high-end fresh milk brand with a market share of 24.0% [1]. - The company also ranks second in the low-temperature yogurt market with a market share of 17.2%, while its "Jianchun" brand is the top low-temperature yogurt brand with a market share of 7.9% [1]. - Junlebao has consistently ranked among the top three domestic infant formula milk powder companies from 2020 to 2024, with a market share of 5.0% in 2024 [1]. - The product line includes low-temperature liquid milk, milk powder, ambient liquid milk, and other dairy products, featuring "Jianchun" zero-sugar yogurt and "Yuexianhuo" high-end fresh milk. The newly launched "Youcuibaoai" infant formula milk powder meets international leading standards [1]. - The company operates 33 self-owned farms and 20 dairy production facilities, covering the entire industry chain [1]. Industry Insights - The Chinese dairy industry has experienced rapid development due to modernization of the industrial chain and supply chain integration, despite its late start. The industry is expected to maintain stable growth driven by accelerated urbanization, increased consumer health awareness, and product innovation [1]. - In 2024, liquid dairy products will account for 54.3% of the total dairy market in China, with retail sales reaching RMB 355 billion. The market size is projected to reach RMB 395.4 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3% from 2025 to 2029 [2]. - The low-temperature liquid dairy product market, which includes fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt, is expected to reach RMB 89.7 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.0% from 2019 to 2024. Its retail sales share in the liquid dairy product market is projected to increase from 23.7% in 2019 to 25.3% in 2024, and the market size is expected to reach RMB 125.9 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.2% from 2025 to 2029 [2]. - The ambient liquid dairy product market, which includes ultra-high-temperature sterilized milk and ambient yogurt, is projected to reach RMB 265.3 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 1.2% from 2019 to 2024. The market size is expected to reach RMB 269.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 0.4% from 2025 to 2029 [2].

Core Viewpoint - Dazhu CNC has passed the main board listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC as its sole sponsor [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Dazhu CNC is a service provider of production equipment solutions specifically for PCB manufacturing, covering critical processes such as drilling, exposure, lamination, shaping, and inspection [1] - The company is the largest manufacturer of PCB-specific production equipment in China, holding a market share of 10.1% based on projected revenue for 2024 [1] - Dazhu CNC's products are sold in over 10 countries and regions worldwide [1] Group 2: Product Focus - A significant portion of the company's revenue comes from drilling equipment and solutions, which include both mechanical drilling equipment and laser direct drilling systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yundong Intelligent has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC serving as the sole sponsor. The company is the third-largest domestic supplier of in-vehicle communication solutions in China, holding a market share of 7% [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yundong Intelligent ranks first among domestic suppliers in 4G in-vehicle communication solutions, with a market share of 7.8% based on the annual shipment volume as of December 31, 2024 [1]. - The company has a competitive advantage in emergency call solutions, being the third-largest domestic supplier with a market share of 1.0% in 2024, which increased to 1.4% by September 30, 2025 [1]. - Yundong Intelligent is accelerating the development of 5G in-vehicle communication solutions, achieving a shipment volume of approximately 27,300 units in the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Product and Market Position - The company's solutions feature communication modules equipped with domestic chips, integrating the AUTOSAR framework and modular development strategies. Key product offerings include T-Box, emergency call terminals, Central Gateway (CGW), and digital keys [1]. - Yundong Intelligent has established partnerships with six of the top ten vehicle manufacturers in China and two of the top three domestic automotive brands as of 2024 [1]. - The market for intelligent connected vehicle solutions is expected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market projected to increase from RMB 115.3 billion in 2024 to RMB 444.9 billion by 2029, with 5G solutions growing at a significantly higher rate than 4G [1].

固定资产投资下降有所加速，稳投资仍待进一步发力。 全年固定资产投资同比-3.8%，降幅较1-11月扩大1.2个百分点，其中建安投资累计同比-8.4%（1-11 月为-6.4%），反映建筑业偏弱的态势。12月固定投资季调环比下降1.13%，降幅较11月的0.37%扩大。虽然四季度新型政策性金融工具和地方政府专项债 等部分稳投资政策加力，但是推动投资止跌回稳仍待政策进一步发力。 中金研究 四季度主要指标量价仍然偏弱，实际GDP同比4.5%，GDP平减指数同比-0.7%。全年经济增长目标顺利完成，出口竞争力改善，外需总体上好于内需。 12月单月来看，社零增速放缓，固定资产投资偏弱运行。与2024年相比，最终消费和净出口对2025年GDP增长的贡献上升，资本形成的贡献下降较 多。总体而言，2025年经济继续呈现分化态势，供给强于需求、外需好于内需、制造业投资好于基建和房地产投资。2025年中央经济工作会议将扩内 需放在2026年重点任务之首，消费与投资均待政策发力，但从内生动能来看，消费对投资的引领意义重大。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 目录 宏观：分化中收 ...