Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 11.6% to 25.9 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024/25, with the main brand's revenue increasing by 10.1% to 18.48 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience despite a warm winter [1][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 10% for the full fiscal year 2025/26, with net profit growth projected to exceed revenue growth [3]. - The launch of the "Puff" series at Paris Fashion Week and the introduction of the AREAL high-end urban line are part of the company's strategy to enhance brand image and international influence [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.51 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [4]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 10.1%, 10.4%, and 10.5% for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, reaching 28.51 billion yuan, 31.46 billion yuan, and 34.77 billion yuan [3][4]. Market Conditions - A significant drop in temperatures and a later Spring Festival in 2026 are expected to positively impact winter clothing sales, extending the sales season by approximately 15 days compared to 2025 [3]. - The company is focusing on product development in collaboration with internationally renowned designers and enhancing product functionality to strengthen its market position [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.92 billion yuan, 4.41 billion yuan, and 4.93 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 11.7%, 12.4%, and 11.8% [4][3]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for the next three fiscal years are 13, 12, and 11 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [1][7] Core Insights - Bosideng has appointed renowned British fashion designer KIM JONES as the creative director for its high-end urban line AREAL, aiming to redefine the concept of business down jackets [2][4] - The AREAL series targets the high-end business fashion sector, featuring transformable layering designs and high-quality materials, with prices ranging from 2399 to 3999 yuan [4] - The company continues to focus on product innovation and optimizing store operations, with a strong emphasis on seasonal sales and rapid response to market demand [5][6] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.93 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.79 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 11.9, and 10.9 [7] - Projected revenue for the fiscal years 2024 to 2028 shows a steady increase from 23.21 billion yuan in 2024 to 34.11 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.4%, 11.6%, 10.1%, 9.9%, and 8.9% respectively [9][11] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.6% to 57.8% over the next five years, while the net profit margin is projected to improve slightly from 13.2% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2028 [9][11]

中金发表研究报告指，波司登在上半年淡季期间取得稳健的零售表现，为即将到来的旺季奠定基础。该 行维持公司2026及27财年的每股盈测分别为0.34及0.38元，续予"跑赢行业"评级，该行考虑到行业估值 中枢上移，目标价上调4.6%至5.89港元。 ...

Core Insights - The appointment of Kim Jones as the creative director for Bosideng's high-end series is seen as a significant move towards the company's high-end strategy, resulting in a market response that added HKD 4.7 billion to shareholder value [2][4] - Bosideng's stock price surged nearly 9% to HKD 4.91, marking a recent high, indicating strong investor confidence in the brand's strategic direction [2][4] Market Reaction - Kim Jones' joining is perceived as a pivotal step in Bosideng's strategy for high-end market positioning and international brand recognition [4] - The global downtrend of high-end down jacket brands like Canada Goose presents an opportunity for Bosideng to capture market share [4][12] Industry Context - Kim Jones is a renowned designer with a successful track record at Louis Vuitton and Dior, known for his ability to blend high fashion with streetwear, which aligns with Bosideng's aspirations [6][8] - The fashion industry is witnessing a shift, with established high-end brands facing growth challenges, creating a potential opening for domestic brands like Bosideng [12][13] Financial Performance - Bosideng reported a revenue of CNY 25.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024/25, marking a historical high and a 14.3% increase in net profit to CNY 3.51 billion [12] - The company's marketing expenses have significantly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth strategy [12][13] Strategic Moves - Bosideng has previously collaborated with various international designers, but Kim Jones' role is more integrated, covering design, visual arts, and global marketing strategies [8] - The brand's high-end series "Dengfeng" was launched with prices exceeding CNY 10,000, although it faced criticism regarding its perceived value [9][11] Competitive Landscape - Bosideng faces multifaceted competition from both high-end brands like Moncler and Canada Goose, as well as cross-category competitors like Lululemon [13] - The brand's ability to establish a strong luxury perception and narrative will be crucial for its success in the high-end market [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kim Jones as the creative director for Bosideng's high-end series is seen as a significant step in the company's strategy to upscale its brand and product offerings, leading to a notable market response with a stock price increase of nearly 9% [2][4][10]. Company Strategy - Bosideng aims to transition towards a high-end market, as evidenced by its previous initiatives, including a logo redesign and the launch of its first high-end series "Dengfeng" priced above 10,000 yuan [7][8]. - The company has previously collaborated with various international designers, but Kim Jones's role marks a deeper involvement in design, visual arts, and global marketing strategies [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The global down jacket market is experiencing shifts, with traditional high-end brands like Canada Goose facing growth challenges, creating opportunities for domestic brands like Bosideng to capture market share [4][10]. - The competitive landscape is becoming more complex, with Bosideng needing to address both high-end competitors and cross-category challengers [12]. Financial Performance - Bosideng reported a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan for the 2024/25 fiscal year, marking a historical high for eight consecutive years, with a net profit increase of 14.3% to 3.51 billion yuan [10]. - The company's sales and distribution expenses have surged from 2.45 billion yuan to 8.055 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024, indicating a high dependency on marketing for growth [12]. Industry Impact - Kim Jones's appointment is viewed as a pivotal moment for Bosideng, potentially enhancing its brand perception and market positioning in the high-end segment [4][11]. - The fashion industry is witnessing a trend towards rational consumer behavior, where both high-end appeal and cost-effectiveness are prioritized [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Bosideng's main brand is experiencing high-quality growth, with expectations for strong sales during the peak season [7] - The company is focusing on brand building and differentiated channel operations, including the launch of new products at Paris Fashion Week and the opening of a new concept store in Shanghai [7] - Financial forecasts indicate steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 25.9 billion yuan in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for FY2024A is projected at 23,214, increasing to 25,902 in FY2025A, 28,512 in FY2026E, 31,420 in FY2027E, and 34,626 in FY2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to grow from 3,074 in FY2024A to 3,514 in FY2025A, 3,938 in FY2026E, 4,393 in FY2027E, and 4,897 in FY2028E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% [1] - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.27 yuan for FY2024A, increasing to 0.30 yuan in FY2025A, 0.34 yuan in FY2026E, 0.38 yuan in FY2027E, and 0.42 yuan in FY2028E [1] Operational Insights - The main brand's revenue for FY2025 is projected at 21.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [7] - The report notes a significant increase in wholesale and self-operated business revenues, with wholesale up by 24.3% and self-operated by 5.2% [7] - The company has added 253 retail outlets, bringing the total to 3,470 by the end of FY2025 [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY2025 is expected to be 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale and OEM business [7] - The net profit margin for FY2025 is projected to be 13.6%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 39.82 billion yuan, indicating a healthy financial position [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Bosideng at 0.34/0.38 HKD for FY26/27, with a target price increase of 4.6% to 5.89 HKD, indicating a 20% upside potential from the current stock price [1] - Recent research indicates that Bosideng's flagship store on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai has shown robust retail performance during the off-season, laying a solid foundation for the upcoming peak season [1] - Despite renovations at the main flagship store, Bosideng's sales in the Shanghai region remained strong in 1HFY26, supported by enhanced product and brand strength, as well as refined marketing management [1][2] Group 2 - CICC expects Bosideng's revenue to remain stable in 1HFY26, with healthy growth in the core down jacket business despite some fluctuations in OEM due to tariffs [2] - The company’s distribution channels have performed well under flexible policy guidance, contributing significantly to business growth in 1HFY26 [2] - Bosideng's collaboration with renowned designer Kim Jones to launch the new "AREAL Advanced Urban Line" demonstrates its commitment to upgrading its brand towards a high-end strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Bosideng at 0.34/0.38 HKD for FY26/27, with a target price increase of 4.6% to 5.89 HKD, indicating a 20% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Recent research indicates that Bosideng's new flagship store on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai has shown robust retail performance during the off-season, laying a solid foundation for the upcoming peak season [2] - Despite renovations at the flagship store, Bosideng's sales in the Shanghai region remained strong in 1HFY26, supported by enhanced product and brand strength, as well as refined marketing management in high-end shopping areas [3] - The company has closely collaborated with distributors to improve operational quality, leading to excellent retail performance from distributors, particularly after a temperature drop in East China in mid-October [3] Group 2: Financial Outlook - CICC expects Bosideng's revenue to remain stable in 1HFY26, with healthy growth in the core down jacket business despite some fluctuations in OEM due to tariffs [4] - The company’s flexible policy guidance for distribution channels has driven significant business growth, while self-operated business performance remained stable due to strategic adjustments during the off-season [4] - A slight decrease in OEM proportion is anticipated to enhance the group's profit margin, maintaining a trend of profit growth alongside stable revenue [4] Group 3: Brand Strategy - Bosideng's collaboration with renowned designer Kim Jones to launch the new "AREAL Advanced Urban Line" demonstrates the company's commitment to upgrading its high-end brand strategy [5] - This initiative reflects the company's forward-looking approach in strategic high-end positioning, international brand development, and product innovation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's "Double Eleven" concept sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by the upcoming 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping season, with notable gains in apparel and logistics stocks [2][3][7]. Apparel Sector - The apparel sector is leading the gains, with Bosideng (03998.HK) rising by 9.11%, Urban Revivo (02298.HK) increasing by 7.81%, and other brands like Uniqlo (06288.HK) and Li Ning (02331.HK) also showing positive performance [2][3]. - Seasonal demand for warm clothing is expected to rise due to the approaching autumn and winter, further boosting sales for brands focused on winter apparel [7]. E-commerce Sector - E-commerce companies are also benefiting, with Baozun E-commerce (09991.HK) up by 5.52% and Alibaba (09988.HK) increasing by 1.98% [2][3]. - Tmall's "Double Eleven" event has seen strong initial sales, with 80 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales within the first hour, indicating robust consumer interest [4][5]. Logistics Sector - Logistics stocks are performing well, with Aneng Logistics (09956.HK) surging by 10.47% and JD Logistics (02618.HK) up by 1.87% [2][3]. - The increase in e-commerce activity is expected to drive demand for logistics services, contributing to the positive performance of logistics companies [6]. Market Sentiment - The impressive sales data from the initial phase of the "Double Eleven" event has boosted market confidence in the related sectors, leading to a collective rise in apparel, e-commerce, and logistics stocks [6]. - Analysts suggest that the extended sales window due to the later Chinese New Year in 2026 will provide additional sales opportunities for companies in these sectors [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent consumer complaints on social media suggest that Adidas down jackets sold on short video platforms are actually produced by Snow Flying, raising questions about brand pricing and product quality [1][4]. Group 1: Product Comparison - A specific short down jacket from Adidas is priced at 579 yuan, featuring duck down with a fill power of 600+ and a down content of 80% [4]. - In contrast, a similar jacket from Snow Flying is priced at 519 yuan, with a fill power of 680+ and a down content of 90%, indicating a better value proposition [4][5]. - Another Adidas jacket listed at 869 yuan contains 135 grams of duck down and 80% down content, while a comparable Snow Flying jacket is priced at 879 yuan with 200-249 grams of duck down and 90% down content [5]. Group 2: Company Background - Jiangsu Snow Flying Garment Co., Ltd. was established in September 1997, with a registered capital of approximately 150 million yuan, and its business scope includes textile sales and garment manufacturing [8]. - The company is wholly owned by Jiangsu Kangbo Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd., which is a subsidiary of Bosideng Co., Ltd. [9].