中信证券研报称，结合中央经济工作会议和人民 银行近期表述看，2026年利率总量政策有望温和，预 计政策利率10bps幅度调降或在1~2次。对于银行定价而言，负债端中长期定存集中到期，有助于成本控 制；资产端LPR调整降频叠加终端利率下行放缓，收益率下行可控。我们预计，2026年银行业净息差降 幅收窄至4bps左右，为2022年以来首次年度息差降幅在低个位数水平。受益于此，上市银行全年营业收 入和归母净利润同比增速或分别改善至3.3%/2.8%左右，业绩稳定改善为板块稳定回报奠定扎实基础。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are primarily attributed to pressure on the liability side of commercial banks, influenced by regulatory assessments and seasonal factors, while the central bank's monetary policy framework reform may gradually offset these pressures through the introduction of balance sheet expansion tools [1] Group 1 - The volatility in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds has increased, mainly due to pressures on commercial banks' liabilities [1] - Regulatory assessments and seasonal factors contribute to the current pressures faced by banks [1] - The central bank's ongoing monetary policy framework reform may provide a counterbalance to these pressures through the deployment of balance sheet expansion tools [1] Group 2 - Fiscal pressures for the next year are considered relatively manageable [1] - In a broader context of monetary easing, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions still pending, ultra-long-term bonds retain certain investment significance [1] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to investment opportunities following short-term interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are primarily attributed to the pressure on the liability side of commercial banks, influenced by regulatory assessments and seasonal factors, while the central bank's monetary policy framework reform may gradually offset these pressures [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The volatility in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds has increased, mainly due to pressures faced by commercial banks [1] - Regulatory assessments and seasonal factors contribute to the current pressures on banks' liabilities [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's ongoing monetary policy framework reform is expected to gradually counterbalance the pressures on the banking sector [1] - The potential implementation of expansionary monetary tools, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, remains to be seen [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Considering the manageable fiscal pressures anticipated for the next year, ultra-long-term bonds still hold certain investment significance in the long run [1] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to investment opportunities following short-term interest rate adjustments [1]

每经AI快讯，12月22日，中信证券研报称，美国11月失业率进一步上行，非农就业人数仍处于较低水 平。同时，11月非农就业增长结构也较差。类似地，ADP就业增长也继续在低位水平，较多行业也出现 负增长情况。整体而言，当前美国就业市场继续弱势运行，短期该趋势或将持续，明年美联储全年或降 息50bps左右。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月22日，中信证券研报指出，结合中央经济工作会议和人民银行近期表述看，2026年 利率总量政策有望温和，预计政策利率10bps幅度调降或在1~2次。对于银行定价而言，负债端中长期定 存集中到期，有助于成本控制；资产端LPR调整降频叠加终端利率下行放缓，收益率下行可控。我们预 计，2026年银行业净息差降幅收窄至4bps左右，为2022年以来首次年度息差降幅在低个位数水平。受益 于此，上市银行全年营业收入和归母净利润同比增速或分别改善至3.3%/2.8%左右，业绩稳定改善为板 块稳定回报奠定扎实基础。 ...

中信证券研报称，结合中央经济工作会议和人民银行近期表述看，2026年利率总量政策有望温和，预计 政策利率10bps幅度调降或在1~2次。对于银行定价而言，负债端中长期定存集中到期，有助于成本控 制；资产端LPR调整降频叠加终端利率下行放缓，收益率下行可控。我们预计，2026年银行业净息差降 幅收窄至4bps左右，为2022年以来首次年度息差降幅在低个位数水平。受益于此，上市银行全年营业收 入和归母净利润同比增速或分别改善至3.3%/2.8%左右，业绩稳定改善为板块稳定回报奠定扎实基础。 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of December 2025, SpaceX has successfully launched 3,095 Starlink satellites into orbit, indicating a significant advancement in commercial space endeavors and the potential for breakthroughs in launch capacity and cost reduction [1] Industry Developments - Domestic development of a recoverable medium-sized launch vehicle comparable to Falcon 9 is anticipated, which will help overcome current capacity bottlenecks [1] - The launch cost is expected to decrease significantly, accelerating the realization of markets related to satellites, terminals, and computing power [1] Market Opportunities - The commercial space sector is entering a new era, driven by the mass launch phases of China StarNet and the G60 Qianfan constellation, along with the operationalization of the Hainan commercial launch site and commercial launch vehicles [1] - The trend towards high capacity and low cost is set to unlock a trillion-dollar market, presenting substantial growth opportunities for the related industry chain [1] Investment Focus - Current high-potential investment directions include space computing power and recoverable rockets, while low Earth orbit communication satellite networks are the first segments with fundamental logic and order support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that factors driving the appreciation of the RMB are increasing, leading to heightened market attention. Investors need to gradually adapt their asset allocation strategies in a continuously appreciating RMB environment [1] Group 1: RMB Appreciation Impact - Over the past 20 years, there have been seven cycles of RMB appreciation, and exchange rates are not the decisive factor in industry allocation decisions [1] - Certain industries may perform better during the initial phase of sustained appreciation expectations, suggesting that the market may replicate this "muscle memory" [1] - Approximately 19% of industries are expected to see profit margin improvements due to RMB appreciation, making these sectors increasingly attractive to investors [1] Group 2: Policy Responses and Industry Allocation - Policy responses aimed at curbing rapid unilateral appreciation trends are considered more significant in influencing industry allocation than the appreciation itself [1] - In the context of ongoing RMB appreciation, three key themes for industry allocation are identified: short-term muscle memory-driven performance, profit margin changes, and policy changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's capital market continued to recover, enhancing the securities industry's ability to serve the real economy and new productive forces, with significant improvements in investor asset allocation and satisfaction. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities was completed, accelerating the construction of a first-class investment bank, while securities firms strengthened their overseas subsidiaries, deepening high-level opening-up. Looking ahead to 2026, the securities industry's functional capabilities are expected to be better utilized, contributing to the construction of a financial powerhouse [1]. Industry Development: Functional Capabilities and Capital Strength - The securities industry's functional capabilities became increasingly significant in 2025, serving the real economy and new productive forces effectively. Notable companies such as Moer Thread and Nidec were listed, and major firms like CATL and Zijin Mining successfully completed IPOs in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regaining its position as the top global IPO market [2]. - Investor satisfaction improved significantly in 2025, with the scale of financial products sold by securities firms growing. In the first half of the year, 42 listed securities firms achieved financial product sales revenue of 5.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [2]. Investment Banking: Recovery and Service to the Real Economy - In 2025, the investment banking sector showed signs of recovery, focusing on serving the real economy through equity financing and mergers and acquisitions. The A-share IPO market saw over 100 companies listed, with total fundraising reaching 110 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity [5]. - The Hong Kong IPO market also rebounded, with 91 companies completing IPOs and raising a total of 259.889 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery [6]. - Mergers and acquisitions became a key avenue for investment banks to deepen their service to the real economy, with policies guiding the market towards industry integration and transformation [6]. Wealth Management: Transition to Management Fees - In 2025, the wealth management business of securities firms saw significant growth, with total revenue from related businesses reaching approximately 145.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.4% [9]. - The shift from earning transaction commissions to management and service fees was evident, with online account openings exceeding 90% and over 80% of transactions conducted via mobile apps [11]. - The demand for wealth management services is expected to grow, driven by an increase in residents' financial assets, particularly in equity [12]. Asset Management: New Development Paths - The asset management industry underwent significant restructuring in 2025, with total private asset management product scale reaching 57.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.95% from the beginning of the year [13]. - The pursuit of public fund licenses by securities firms was paused, with many withdrawing applications, indicating a shift towards exploring differentiated development paths [14]. - Collaboration between asset management and wealth management is emerging as a new development path, with a focus on meeting diverse client needs [15]. Mergers and Acquisitions: Accelerated Restructuring - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry intensified in 2025, with significant cases such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities and the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC [16][17]. - The restructuring is characterized by a focus on resource integration and strategic transformation, supported by clear policy incentives [17]. - The industry is expected to see a clearer new structure in 2026, with a focus on leading firms and potential growth among mid-sized securities companies [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market as it approaches a year-end trading window, with favorable policy support for the consumer sector and low valuation levels in various sub-sectors [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Insights - Hong Kong stocks are experiencing a year-end trading window, with quality assets entering a high cost-performance zone due to macroeconomic improvements and profit expectations [5]. - The Japanese central bank's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% is expected to improve overseas liquidity expectations, which may positively impact global markets [3]. - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to remain volatile, particularly high-valuation assets, as it navigates between revaluation and sentiment recovery [7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is positioned for recovery, with multiple sub-sectors currently at historically low valuation levels, benefiting from policy support aimed at enhancing corporate profitability [11]. - Strong cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, aluminum, chemicals, and machinery are expected to be key trading catalysts in the first quarter of 2026 [6]. - Industrial metals are projected to maintain a long-term positive trend despite short-term price pressures due to uncertainties in interest rates and the dollar [12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain under pressure, but investment may stabilize at low levels, with gradual improvements in consumption and resilient exports [10]. - The market is likely to transition from a valuation-driven rally to one supported by corporate earnings, with a focus on modernization and capacity expansion as key trends [10]. - The trust in the U.S. dollar is declining, which may influence global economic dynamics and investment strategies [15].