Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.133 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.018 billion yuan, up 26.9% year-on-year, showcasing robust revenue growth and strong performance [2]. - The company's main product,珍酒, achieved a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%, accounting for 65.4% of total revenue. The sales volume and price per ton increased by 7.9% and 8.6% respectively, driven by the growth of high-end product series [2]. - 李渡, another key product, saw a revenue of 670 million yuan, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 37.9%, and its revenue contribution rose to 16.3%. The sales volume and price per ton increased by 30.2% and 5.9% respectively, indicating strong market penetration [2]. - The company has optimized its internal operations, leading to improved profitability, with a gross margin of 58.8% and an adjusted net profit margin of 24.6% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points respectively [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 1.756 billion yuan, 2.166 billion yuan, and 2.551 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -25%, 23%, and 18% [5][11]. - The projected revenue growth rates are 20% for 2024, 15% for 2025, and 14% for 2026, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5][11]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 60.8% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to be 23% in the same year [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 4.13 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with a net profit of 750 million RMB and an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.9% [2]. - The growth is driven by the brands Zhenjiu and Lidu, with significant improvements in product structure and sales performance across different price segments [2]. - The company is expected to continue its sustainable growth through new product launches, optimizing distributors, and enhancing brand strength, particularly in key markets like Guangdong and Hunan [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 58.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Zhenjiu and Lidu achieving gross margins of 59% and 66.8%, respectively [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 21.85% and 6.65%, respectively, showing a decrease in sales expenses due to improved efficiency in the sales team [2]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 8.45 billion, 10.10 billion, and 11.62 billion RMB, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 2.02 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.88 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 24.5%, 21.6%, and 17.2% respectively [3][4].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_StockInfo]08 月 22 日收盘价(HKD) | 7.10 | | 52 周股价波动(HKD) | 6.90-12.84 | | 股本结构 | | | [总股本 Table_CapitalInfo /流通 H 股(百万股] ) | 3389/3389 | | 总市值/流通市值 | | | (百万 HKD) | 24059/24059 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《高端引领结构优化，逆势向上彰显价 | | | 值》2024.03.28 | | | 《三大引擎共筑成长，精耕细作布局长 | | 远》2024.01.29 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------- ...

珍酒李渡（06979.HK）2024 年中报点评 强推（维持） 全年前低后高，奠定扎实基础 目标价：14 港元 当前价：7.4 港元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2024 年中报，2024 上半年营业总收入 41.3 亿元，同增 17.5%；归母 净利润/Non-GAAP 净利润分别为 7.5/10.2 亿元，同比-52.6%/+26.9%。经营活 动现金流净额 5.7 亿元，同增 166.2%。 评论： ❖ 李渡高增释放潜力，增长务实平稳过渡。上半年收入/经调整净利润同增 17.5%/26.9%，增长务实，符合预期。分品牌看，珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑分别同 增 17.2%/37.9%/2.4%/1.6%。其中，珍酒品牌量/价分别增长 7.9%/8.6%，判断 系珍十五放量，叠加珍 30 及真实年份酒提速贡献。李渡量/价分别同增 30.2%/5.9%，占比提升 2.4pcts 至 16.3%，判断系省内加快中档酒布局，省外市 场铺货贡献。湘窖及开口笑主要系去年基数较高致增速放缓。上半年高端/次 高端/中低档酒收入分别同比+17.9%/+32.6%/+2.7%，次高端及以上产品增长较 好。分渠道看，24H1 末经销商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company,珍酒李渡 (6979.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.13 billion HKD for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 752 million HKD, with an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [3][4] - The growth in the珍酒 and李渡 brands was significant, with李渡 experiencing a 38% increase in revenue, driven by an improved product matrix and penetration into markets outside its home province [3][4] - The company is actively implementing a dual-channel growth strategy, which is expected to enhance the potential of its partners and prepare for future growth [3][4] Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the珍酒 brand saw a 17% increase in revenue, while李渡 grew by 38%. The high-end and next-high-end segments grew by 18% and 33%, respectively [3][4] - The overall gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of mid-range products and the positive contribution from new self-owned production capacity [3][4] - The adjusted net profit margin increased by 1.8 percentage points to 24.6% [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 8.45 billion, 10.13 billion, and 11.96 billion HKD, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 20.0%, and 18.1%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 2.04 billion, 2.53 billion, and 3.14 billion HKD, with growth rates of 25.6%, 24.1%, and 24.1% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.133 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 52.6% to 752 million yuan, while the adjusted net profit increased by 26.9% to 1.018 billion yuan [2][3] - The brand "Zhenjiu" saw both volume and price increases, with significant contributions from high-end products. The company continues to upgrade its product structure, with high-end and sub-high-end products accounting for 67.1% of revenue, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with a gross margin of 58.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The sales and distribution expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 2.02 billion, 2.52 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [3][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the strategic establishment of the Zhen Thirty division, which aims to enhance resource allocation and drive revenue growth in the second half of the year [3] Market Data - The total market capitalization of the company is 25.1 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 3.389 billion shares [6] - The stock price has fluctuated between 6.92 and 12.84 HKD over the past year, with a recent trading price of 7.40 HKD [6][5]

业绩简评 2024 年 8 月 21 日，公司披露 24H1 业绩，期内实现收入 41.3 亿元， 同比+17.5%；经调整净利润 10.2 亿元，同比+26.9%，略超市场预 期。 经营分析 分产品来看 ：24H1 珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑分别实现营收 27.0/6.7/4.5/2.2 亿元，同比+17.2%/+37.9%/+2.4%/+1.6%，其中 销量分别 +7.9%/+30.2%/+2.5%/-11.9% ， 吨 价 分 别 +8.6%/+5.9%/-0.1%/+15.3% ， 毛 利 率 分 别 +1.2/-2.0/-1.4/ +3.1pct。李渡增速持续引领，期内对李渡高粱 1955/1975 焕新升 级，叠加积极拓展江西以外市场、扩大产品矩阵纳入更多次高端 及中端价位产品；珍酒增速平稳，期内推出次高端宴席新品珍宴， 近期珍三十单设事业部运作。 分价位来看：24H1 高端/次高端/中端及以下分别实现营收 10.9/16.8/13.6 亿元，同比 +18%/+33%/+3% ，毛利率分别 -0.4/-1.9/+2.0pct 至 69.9%/63.3%/44.2%。此外，24H1 末经销合 作伙伴/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue in line with expectations and profits exceeding expectations, with strong cash flow performance driven by structural upgrades that enhanced profit margins [3][7]. - The independent operation of the "Zhen Thirty" division is expected to unlock growth potential through focused resource allocation and organizational empowerment [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27%, surpassing expectations [7][8]. - The operating net cash flow for the period was 570 million RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 166%, attributed to the easing of cash collection issues following a peak in base liquor inventory [7][8]. - The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 58.8%, while the adjusted net profit margin increased by 1.8 percentage points to 24.6% [7][8]. Brand Performance - Revenue growth for the brands in the first half of 2024 was as follows: Zhen Jiu +17%, Li Du +38%, Xiang Jiao +2%, and Kai Kou Xiao +2% [7]. - The main brand, Zhen Jiu, saw both volume and price increases, with volume up by 8% and price up by 9%, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 59.2% [7]. - Li Du experienced a significant volume increase of 30% with a price increase of 6%, maintaining a gross margin of 66.8% [7]. Structural Upgrades and Future Outlook - The company has been optimizing operational efficiency and enhancing the effectiveness of its sales team, alongside refining channel management and customer relationships [7]. - The recent strategic upgrade of the Zhen Jiu brand, including the establishment of the Zhen Thirty division, is expected to further enhance growth potential by focusing on service and experience for partners and accelerating terminal construction [7].

业绩简评 2024 年 8 月 21 日，公司披露 24H1 业绩，期内实现收入 41.3 亿元， 同比+17.5%；经调整净利润 10.2 亿元，同比+26.9%，略超市场预 期。 经营分析 分产品来看 ：24H1 珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑分别实现营收 27.0/6.7/4.5/2.2 亿元，同比+17.2%/+37.9%/+2.4%/+1.6%，其中 销量分别 +7.9%/+30.2%/+2.5%/-11.9% ， 吨 价 分 别 +8.6%/+5.9%/-0.1%/+15.3% ， 毛 利 率 分 别 +1.2/-2.0/-1.4/ +3.1pct。李渡增速持续引领，期内对李渡高粱 1955/1975 焕新升 级，叠加积极拓展江西以外市场、扩大产品矩阵纳入更多次高端 及中端价位产品；珍酒增速平稳，期内推出次高端宴席新品珍宴， 近期珍三十单设事业部运作。 分价位来看：24H1 高端/次高端/中端及以下分别实现营收 10.9/16.8/13.6 亿元，同比 +18%/+33%/+3% ，毛利率分别 -0.4/-1.9/+2.0pct 至 69.9%/63.3%/44.2%。此外，24H1 末经销合 作伙伴/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, while the profit attributable to equity shareholders was 750 million, a decline of 52.6%. Adjusted net profit was 1.02 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.9%, which aligns with expectations [4]. - The company is positioned as the only publicly listed liquor company in Hong Kong, focusing on the mid-to-high-end price segment. The two main products, Zhen 15 and Zhen 30, show potential for nationwide expansion, supported by ongoing market consolidation and product upgrades [4]. - The product structure has improved, with the mid-to-high-end price segments accounting for 67% of total revenue, an increase of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 4.13 billion, with Zhen liquor, Li Du, Xiang Jiao, and Kai Kou Xiao contributing 2.7 billion, 670 million, 450 million, and 220 million respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 37.9%, 2.4%, and 1.6% [4]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 58.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end products and cost efficiencies from in-house production [5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of 2.0 billion, 2.37 billion, and 2.76 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 16% [6]. - The earnings per share are projected to be 0.59, 0.70, and 0.81 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [6]. Brand Development - Zhen liquor's sales volume reached 6,932 tons in the first half of 2024, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with an average price of 389,800 per ton, also up by 8.6% [4]. - Li Du brand sales volume was 1,371 tons, a 30% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 492,000 per ton, reflecting a 5.9% increase [4].