Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the rising prominence of Wu Qirong, the son of Wu Xiangdong, as he is nominated as an executive director of Zhenjiu Lidu, indicating a potential leadership transition within the company [1][4] - Wu Qirong, born in 1996, has been involved in various roles within the company since joining in October 2019, including managing the digital marketing department and contributing to the company's digital transformation efforts [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 711 million yuan from direct sales channels in 2024, reflecting an 11.5% decrease year-on-year, attributed to the reduction of low-margin e-commerce product sales [4] Group 2 - Wu Qirong has been actively participating in social welfare initiatives, including optimizing employee benefits and engaging in educational support projects, which has contributed to his recognition as a representative in the local government [4] - The company has established a service agreement with Wu Qirong, allowing him to receive an annual salary and discretionary bonus totaling 1.25 million yuan, based on his responsibilities and current market conditions [4]

Brand Development and Market Position - In 2024, ZJLD Group achieved significant progress in brand building, quality enhancement, channel innovation, and social responsibility despite a challenging economic environment[16]. - The baijiu industry is currently in an adjustment period, but ZJLD Group remains confident in the future growth potential of its brands, Zhen Jiu and Li Du[18]. - The chairman highlighted that the challenges in the industry present opportunities for differentiation and competition in branding, quality, and consumer experience[18]. - Zhen Jiu was recognized as one of China's 500 Most Valuable Brands for 2024 with a brand value of approximately RMB 24.8 billion[49]. - Li Du maintained its position as the fifth largest mixed-aroma baijiu brand in China, achieving the highest year-on-year growth rate among the top five brands[53]. - Li Du was awarded the title of "Chinese Time-Honored Brand" by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China in 2024[56]. Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 7,066,784, a slight increase from RMB 7,030,467 in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 0.5%[35]. - Profit attributable to equity shareholders decreased to RMB 1,323,622 from RMB 2,327,083 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 43.2%[35]. - Adjusted net profit increased to RMB 1,676,275, with an adjusted net profit margin of 23.7%, compared to 23.1% in 2023[35]. - Revenue from Zhen Jiu decreased by 2.3% to RMB 4,479.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 4,583.2 million in FY2023[123]. - Revenue from Li Du increased by 18.3% to RMB 1,312.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1,109.6 million in FY2023[123]. - Net profit decreased by 43.1% to RMB 1,323.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, down from RMB 2,327.1 million in FY2023[167]. Strategic Initiatives and Growth Plans - The company emphasizes a focus on four key elements: brand, base liquor, distribution channels, and team capabilities to drive sustainable development[20]. - ZJLD Group aims to capitalize on new growth opportunities by continuously innovating and adapting to emerging industry trends[20]. - The company plans to expand its sales channels and enhance brand recognition, particularly for the Li Du brand, which focuses on mixed aroma baijiu products[44]. - The company aims to optimize resource allocation across production costs and marketing expenses to improve profitability[44]. - The company aims to gradually replace third-party base liquor supplies with its own to improve gross profit margins[73]. - The company plans to enhance brand influence significantly in 2025, marking the 50th anniversary of Zhen Jiu[115]. Product Development and Innovation - Zhen Jiu launched new products in 2024, including the 2013 Real Vintage Baijiu and The One Among A Thousand, expanding its package-free product line in the deluxe price range[54]. - Zhen Jiu plans to launch the Zhen 50 Series in 2025 to commemorate its 50th anniversary, honoring its legacy of craftsmanship and innovation[54]. - Li Du's production techniques are recognized as a non-material cultural heritage of Jiangxi Province, enhancing its brand image rooted in historical culture[56]. - In February 2024, Li Du launched the second generation of Sorghum 1955 and Sorghum 1975 to enhance consumer experience[59]. - The product development team consists of 252 employees, with most holding a bachelor's degree or higher, and is led by a technical committee of 78 industry experts[64]. Operational Efficiency and Technology - The company has implemented a multi-channel sales network, including partnerships with distributors, store partners, and direct sales to end consumers, to expand consumer reach[76]. - The company developed a Base Liquor Management System that allows for inventory measurement of each jar in about 20 seconds, enabling daily inventory of 600-700 jars with an accuracy error of less than 0.3%[81][83]. - A comprehensive Quality Management System was established in 2024, covering all production stages and facilitating precise batch quality management and efficient traceability[87]. - The Intelligent Weighing Monitoring System was completed by the end of 2024, improving weighing efficiency and ensuring data accuracy through automated processes[87]. - Digital tools are being leveraged to strengthen monitoring of transaction flows within distribution channels, enhancing channel management[94]. Social Responsibility and ESG Initiatives - Zhen Jiu is committed to social responsibility, planning charitable activities and local poverty alleviation efforts in 2025 to mark its 50th anniversary[24]. - Zhen Jiu's ESG rating improved to "AA" in 2024, ranking it among the top listed baijiu companies[24]. - The company received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind for the second consecutive year and was included in the Wind China Listed Companies ESG Top 100 list[111]. - The company was awarded the title of "National Green Factory" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China in 2024[111]. - The proportion of green electricity consumed by the company reached over 50% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to renewable energy[110]. Human Resources and Management - The company had 11,380 full-time employees as of December 31, 2024, an increase from 10,956 employees as of June 30, 2024[192]. - The Post-IPO Equity Incentive Plan was approved on April 11, 2023, and aims to align the interests of eligible participants with the Company’s goals[197]. - The Company’s overall strategy is overseen by Mr. Wu Xiangdong, who has over 20 years of experience in the liquor industry[199]. - Mr. Yan Tao has been with the Company since December 2009 and serves as the CEO, responsible for overall management and operations[200].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.067 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.52%. However, the profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.12% to 1.324 billion yuan, while the adjusted net profit increased by 3.31% to 1.676 billion yuan. In the second half of 2024, revenue dropped by 16.46% to 2.934 billion yuan, and profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.94% to 572 million yuan [2][7][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 7.067 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.52% year-on-year. The profit attributable to shareholders was 1.324 billion yuan, down 43.12% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 1.676 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.31%. In the second half of 2024, revenue was 2.934 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.46% year-on-year, and profit attributable to shareholders was 572 million yuan, down 22.94% year-on-year [2][10]. Brand Performance - Revenue from the brand "Zhenjiu" was 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.26% year-on-year, with sales volume at 12,284 tons, down 2.74%. The average price per ton was 3.65 million yuan, up 0.55% year-on-year. For the second half of 2024, revenue from "Zhenjiu" was 1.777 billion yuan, down 21.95% year-on-year. The "Lidu" brand generated 1.313 billion yuan in revenue, an increase of 18.33% year-on-year, with sales volume at 3,033 tons, up 24.87%. The average price per ton was 4.33 million yuan, down 5.25% year-on-year [10]. Margin and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin increased to 58.63%, up 0.59 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased to 22.8%, down 0.34 percentage points year-on-year. The overall price per ton for the company was 2.85 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.56% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from external recovery and internal optimization, with a projected EPS of 0.49 yuan for 2025 and 0.55 yuan for 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 12 and 11 times, respectively. The long-term outlook suggests potential benefits from a multi-brand strategy and improvements in the competitive landscape of the liquor industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has given a "buy" rating to Zhenjiu Lidu (06979), with a target price of HKD 8.08 based on a projected P/E ratio of 14.5 times for 2026, applying a 25% discount relative to the average A-share P/E ratio [1] Recent Developments - In March, management noted an increase in orders from distributors due to replenishment demand post-Spring Festival, but no significant retail demand recovery has been observed year-to-date. The sales base during the Spring Festival was also high. The management aims for flat year-on-year revenue and expects a modest improvement in net profit margin [2] - For the first half of 2025, management anticipates sales not to be lower than the second half of 2024, with potential improvements in the second half of 2025. Sales in Guizhou are expected to grow by double digits in 2024, while Henan remains stable, Hunan progresses well, and Shandong lags behind [2] Retail Demand and Operational Dynamics - Since June 2024, demand has remained weak, and management believes distributor confidence in the industry is low. The company plans to avoid putting excessive pressure on channels and will strictly control channel rebates to maintain stable wholesale prices. The company has also suspended consumer red envelope activities since last year and will gradually explore the banquet market, potentially leveraging the Zhen10 product [3] 2025 Outlook - Management expects a quarter-on-quarter improvement in the first half of 2025, with sales targets remaining flat year-on-year. The high-end liquor segment aims for double-digit sales growth, with the Lidu brand continuing to drive growth. If local government debt issues improve, there could be greater growth opportunities. The employee stock ownership plan for 2025 is yet to be determined [4] Production Capacity and Capital Expenditure - By the end of 2025, the company's base liquor inventory is projected to reach approximately 120,000 to 130,000 tons, with a potential sales value of RMB 40-50 billion based on the average selling price of approximately RMB 365,000 per ton in 2024. Management expects capital expenditures to gradually decrease starting in 2027 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial reports of the Hong Kong stock market reveal significant performance pressures, but the strategic direction and growth logic evolution are more noteworthy. The company Zhenjiu Liduo has delivered a high-quality performance under market pressure and has released new growth expectations, making it a valuable subject for analysis [1] Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Liduo achieved a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.68 billion RMB, up 3.3%, with key indicators maintaining growth for four consecutive years. Both gross margin and adjusted net profit margin increased by 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall positive performance in profitability [2] - The overall gross margin of Zhenjiu Liduo reached 75.5% when calculated according to A-share accounting standards, significantly higher than its initial listing and on par with the average gross margin of the liquor industry. The operating cash flow net amount surged by 116.3% to 780 million RMB, marking a substantial improvement from a negative figure in 2022 [4] Strategic Adjustments - Zhenjiu Liduo has strategically controlled volume and intentionally slowed the market expansion pace of its Zhen San Shi series, focusing on high-quality products in the mid-to-high-end price range, which saw an 8.8% year-on-year increase in revenue [4] - The company has also reduced low-margin, low-price products in its e-commerce channels and cut several hundred million RMB worth of side products, maintaining long-term growth potential. As a result, distribution revenue grew by 2.1%, demonstrating strong performance [4] Market Position - In terms of industry ranking, Zhenjiu remains the fourth largest sauce liquor company in China and the largest private liquor enterprise in Guizhou. Liduo ranks fifth among blended liquor brands in China and continues to maintain the fastest growth among the top five blended brands [7] Long-term Growth Potential - The current adjustments in the liquor industry are driven by multiple long-term structural factors rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. Companies that transition from extensive expansion to high-quality development are expected to thrive in the long run. Zhenjiu Liduo's strategic choices align with high-quality development and aim to establish new growth points while creating differentiated advantages [8] - The company is actively reducing side products to stabilize its pricing system and enhance brand value, while also deepening its layout in the sauce liquor category, which is expected to capture over 50% of the liquor market share in the next decade [8] Channel and Brand Strategy - Zhenjiu Liduo is implementing a "dual-channel growth strategy," introducing new channels such as corporate group purchases and cross-industry collaborations. In 2024, the high-end liquor division achieved high double-digit growth through these new channels [8] - The company emphasizes the quality of its distributors and has seen double-digit growth in revenue per distributor for both Zhenjiu and Liduo brands in 2024. It also focuses on experiential marketing to enhance brand recognition and customer loyalty [9] Investment Appeal - Multiple factors are catalyzing the revaluation of Zhenjiu Liduo's value in the capital market. With the government prioritizing consumption recovery, market expectations for the consumption sector are rising, making Zhenjiu Liduo an attractive investment opportunity as a rare value stock in the Hong Kong liquor market [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The financial report for 2024 reveals that the company, Zhenjiu Lid, experienced a slight revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth and profitability in a competitive market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhenjiu Lid achieved a revenue of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.324 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 43.1% [1][2]. - The gross profit for the same period was 4.143 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [2]. Sales and Brand Performance - The core brand "Zhenjiu" has seen a continuous decline in sales over the past four years, with sales figures of 14,761 tons in 2021, 12,856 tons in 2022, 12,630 tons in 2023, and 12,284 tons in 2024 [4]. - Other brands, including "Lidu," "Kaitou," and "Xiangjiao," contributed over 30% of revenue, but also experienced sales declines in 2024 [4]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Despite profit pressures, the company's operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 781 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 116.3% [4]. - Inventory levels have risen sharply from 1.74 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, indicating potential issues with inventory management and channel profitability [5][6]. Pricing and Market Challenges - The company faces pricing pressures, with significant discrepancies between suggested retail prices and actual market prices for key products, leading to concerns about channel control [5]. - The average annual sales per store have decreased to 920,000 yuan, indicating declining channel efficiency [5]. Strategic Positioning and Market Dynamics - The overall white liquor market is characterized by a few dominant players, with Zhenjiu Lid struggling to establish a strong foothold in the high-end segment [7]. - The company's high-end product revenue accounted for only 24% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of nearly 11%, highlighting challenges in brand upgrading [7]. Geographic Market Focus - Zhenjiu Lid's market presence is primarily concentrated in Guizhou and Jiangxi, with local brands contributing most of the revenue [8]. - The company needs to enhance its capabilities for national brand development and consumer engagement to achieve further growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - The first performance announcement for the 2024 fiscal year from the Chinese liquor company Zhenjiu Lidu shows a slight revenue increase of 0.5% to 7.07 billion RMB and a 3.3% rise in adjusted net profit to 1.68 billion RMB, indicating resilience and strategic optimization during a challenging period for the liquor industry [1][3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 reached 7.07 billion RMB, up from 7.03 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [3]. - Adjusted net profit increased to 1.68 billion RMB from 1.62 billion RMB, marking a growth of 3.3% [3]. - Operating cash flow surged by 116.3% to 781 million RMB, indicating strong cash management [4]. Profit Quality Improvement - Adjusted net profit rose from 520 million RMB in 2020 to 1.68 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a 223% increase over four years [4]. - Gross margin improved to 58.6%, with an adjusted net margin of 23.7%, both up by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing effective cost control [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company declared a dividend of 712 million HKD, a 16.7% increase year-on-year, reflecting confidence in cash flow and sustainable profitability [5]. - The growth in revenue from mid-range products (8.8% increase) and strategic adjustments in high-end products highlight a rational approach during industry downturns [5]. Market Trends - The mid-range liquor market (300-800 RMB price range) is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size increase of 12% in 2024, outpacing the overall industry growth of approximately 5% [5]. - Zhenjiu Lidu's strategic focus on mid-range products aligns with market trends and consumer behavior shifts [5]. Brand Strategy - Zhenjiu Lidu's four brands (Zhenjiu, Lidu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao) are positioned across various price segments, with Zhenjiu being the main revenue driver, accounting for 63.4% of total revenue [14]. - The company is implementing a "quantity control and price maintenance" strategy, focusing on core products and optimizing customer structure [14]. Future Outlook - The company aims for high-quality development through seven key focus areas, including team building, quality management, and brand awareness [16]. - The 2024 financial report reflects a strategic shift towards "controlled growth" rather than blind expansion, providing a replicable model for other companies in the industry [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a healthy adjustment, with steady growth in its product lines, particularly in the Li Du brand, which has shown resilience in a challenging market environment [7] - The company has received multiple accolades at the 112th National Spring Sugar and Wine Commodity Trade Fair, enhancing its brand reputation [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with expectations for non-IFRS net profit to reach RMB 16.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 7,060 million - 2024A: RMB 7,067 million - 2025E: RMB 7,304 million - 2026E: RMB 8,107 million - 2027E: RMB 9,289 million - The year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected to be 20.56% for 2023A, 0.10% for 2024A, 3.36% for 2025E, 10.99% for 2026E, and 14.59% for 2027E [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: RMB 2,327 million - 2024A: RMB 1,324 million - 2025E: RMB 1,494 million - 2026E: RMB 1,804 million - 2027E: RMB 2,251 million - The year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be 125.96% for 2023A, -43.12% for 2024A, 12.90% for 2025E, 20.71% for 2026E, and 24.77% for 2027E [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023A: RMB 0.69 - 2024A: RMB 0.39 - 2025E: RMB 0.44 - 2026E: RMB 0.53 - 2027E: RMB 0.66 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9.58 for 2023A, 16.84 for 2024A, 14.92 for 2025E, 12.36 for 2026E, and 9.91 for 2027E [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a healthy adjustment, with steady growth expected for the Li Du brand. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand after a period of consolidation [7] - The company has received multiple awards, indicating strong brand recognition and market positioning [7] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been slightly adjusted due to increased competition in the mid-range liquor segment, but the long-term outlook remains positive [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 7,060 million RMB - 2024A: 7,067 million RMB - 2025E: 7,304 million RMB - 2026E: 8,107 million RMB - 2027E: 9,289 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 20.56%, 0.10%, 3.36%, 10.99%, and 14.59% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023A: 2,327 million RMB - 2024A: 1,324 million RMB - 2025E: 1,494 million RMB - 2026E: 1,804 million RMB - 2027E: 2,251 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 125.96%, -43.12%, 12.90%, 20.71%, and 24.77% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1,622.60 million RMB - 2024A: 1,676.28 million RMB - 2025E: 1,681.85 million RMB - 2026E: 1,929.36 million RMB - 2027E: 2,288.12 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are 35.52%, 3.31%, 0.33%, 14.72%, and 18.59% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2023A: 0.69 RMB - 2024A: 0.39 RMB - 2025E: 0.44 RMB - 2026E: 0.53 RMB - 2027E: 0.66 RMB [1] - The P/E ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 9.58 - 2024A: 16.84 - 2025E: 14.92 - 2026E: 12.36 - 2027E: 9.91 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with first-tier brands showing relative resilience while second and third-tier brands face significant declines in stock prices [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - First-tier liquor stocks, including Jinshiyuan, Luzhou Laojiao, Guizhou Moutai, Shui Jing Fang, and Shanxi Fenjiu, have shown slight increases, with none exceeding a 2% weekly rise [2][5]. - The WINE index saw a weekly decline of 0.97%, with second and third-tier brands like Yingjia Gongjiu, Zhenjiu Lidu, and Huangtai Liquor experiencing larger drops, particularly Zhenjiu Lidu and Huangtai Liquor, which fell over 4% [2][5]. - Guizhou Moutai led the market capitalization growth, adding 14.4 billion yuan, the only brand to exceed a 10 billion yuan increase [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Issues - Zhenjiu Lidu's stock has declined by 11% since its annual report release, with modest revenue growth and slightly below-market expectations for net profit due to a reduction in low-margin products from its e-commerce strategy [6][7]. - Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue share for the second half of 2024 is expected to decline compared to last year, raising questions about the effectiveness of its inventory control strategy in restoring rapid growth [7]. - Huangtai Liquor has faced a continuous downward trend in stock price, attributed to poor governance, including the replacement of three secretaries in three years and a lack of cash dividends, which is rare in the liquor industry [7].