Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in vehicle deliveries and revenue, driven by improved cost efficiency and product mix [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with new vehicle launches planned for 2025 and a strong outlook for profitability in both domestic and international markets [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company delivered 120,863 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 147.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.3%. Revenue for Q4 reached 13.455 billion yuan, up 144.6% year-on-year and 36.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was 111,300 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a slight decrease of 2.7% from the previous quarter [1]. - For the full year 2024, total vehicle sales are projected at 294,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with revenue expected to reach 32.16 billion yuan, up 92% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Profitability - Q4 R&D, sales, and management expenses were 900 million, 370 million, and 690 million yuan respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 was 13.3%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company achieved a net profit of 80 million yuan in Q4, marking its first profitable quarter [1][2]. Growth Potential - The company plans to launch three new models in 2025, which are expected to enhance scale effects and platform reuse, potentially exceeding Q4 2024 sales and gross margin figures [3]. - The international expansion is anticipated to contribute significantly to profitability by 2026, with the domestic segment already positioned for breakeven [3]. - The company is advancing its autonomous driving capabilities, with plans to launch a city NOA solution by the end of 2025, positioning itself competitively against major players [3]. Long-term Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at 59.72 billion yuan for 2025, 81.48 billion yuan for 2026, and 105.58 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting strong growth rates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio of 0.9x suggests potential for valuation re-rating, making it attractive compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net losses are forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 134.6 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 155% year-on-year increase [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].

以下是 零跑汽车 4Q24的电话会纪要，财报点评请见《 零跑：黑马逆袭，"小理想" 杀疯了？ 》 一、财报核心信息回顾 | 零跑汽车财报数据概览 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:亿元 | 1023 | 2Q23 | 3073 | 4023 | 1Q24 | 2024 | 3024 | 4024 | 4Q24E 4Q24 Gap | | 2024A | 2024密利预告 | 2025E | | 受收入 | 14.4 | 43.7 | 56.6 | 52.8 | 34.9 | 53.6 | 98.6 | 134.6 | 124.8 | 8% | 321.6 | 305 | 0' 555 | | 同比 | -28% | 41% | 32% | 75% | 142% | 23% | 74% | 155% | 136% | | 92% | | 73% | | 毛利润 | -1.1 | -2.3 | 0.7 | 3.5 ...

3 月 10 日晚，零跑汽车发布 24Q4 及 24 年全年业绩： 1、营收：Q4 零跑交付汽车 120863 辆，同/环比+147.9%/+40.3%，Q4 营收 134.55 亿元，同/环比+144.6%/+36.5%。我们计算 Q4 单车 ASP 11.13 万元，同/环比+12.5%/-2.7%。24 年零跑总销量 29.4 万辆， 同比+103.8%，营收 321.6 亿元，同比+92%，单车 ASP 10.95 万元， 同比-13.2%。 2、费用：Q4 研发/销售/管理费用分别为 9.0/3.7/6.9 亿元，研发/ 管理/销售费用率分别为 6.7%/2.7%/5.1%，环比-1.2/-0.7/-0.5pct。 3、利润：Q4 毛利率 13.3%，同/环比+6.6/+5.2pct；归母净利 0.8 亿 元，首次实现盈利；我们计算 Q4 单车盈利 0.07 万元。24 年全年公 司毛利率 8.4%，同比+7.9pct；归母净利-28.2 亿元，单车亏损 0.96 万元。 1、业绩整体符合预期。受：1）Q4 公司销量大幅提振月均破 4 万， LEAP 3.0 加持下平台化率提升到 88%，规模效应、 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/03/10) | | 41.50 | | 恒生指数(2025/03/10) | | 23,783.5 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 41.75/19.54 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 1,336.97 | | H 股数(百万) | | 1,116.41 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 347.61 | | 主要股东 | 陈爱玲(25.09%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | 7.53 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 5.51 | | 一个月 | 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) 17.40% | 48.75% 59.31% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-2-21 | 33.45 | 买进 | 产品组合 汽车 100% 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . | 沈嘉婕 | ...

2月分析: 今年总体基调是"整治内卷式竞争，提振汽车消费"，加上"双新政策"从年初就续上了，1-2 月份车企们也在主动稳定价格体系，因此消费者消费心态相对平稳。由于去年2月销量基数偏低，本月乘 用车批零售均实现了同比大幅度增长，出现了少有的"节后开门红" 。 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 541 字，阅读全文约需 2 分钟 据中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会最新 零售 销量数据统计，2025年2月份国内狭义乘用 车市场 零售 销量达138.2万辆，同比增长25.6%，环比下降26.4%；1-2月份累计销量317.6万辆，同比增长 1.1%。 | | 一汽丰田 ◇ | 41,315 | 29,131 | 41.8% | 2.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 % | 北京奔驰 | 35,097 | 36,992 | -5.1% | 2.5% | 2025年1-2月厂商零售销量排行榜 单位:辆 本文数据是基于 中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会 月报表-初稿。 | | | 2025年2月厂商批发销量排行榜 | | | | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].

零跑汽车 摘要 • 零跑汽车 2025 年销售目标为 50 万辆，基于 2024 年月均销量 3-4 万辆， 将推出 B 系列三款新车并全面更新至 3.5 架构平台，C 系列也将进行质量 提升和高阶智驾切换，续航里程平均提升 50 公里。 Q&A 零跑汽车在 2024 年的业绩表现如何？ • 零跑汽车预测，至 2027-2028 年中国新能源汽车渗透率将达 80%- 90%，电动车经济性将推动全球市场发展，使用成本仅为燃油车的四分之 一，部分地区甚至更低。 • 中国市场全面电动化将削弱传统燃油车企（如 BBA）的市场份额，中国新 能源车企的全球渗透将进一步侵蚀其优势，电动化趋势将逐步扩展至全球。 • 智能化是电动车下半场的关键，预计 2025 年高架高速路段将实现高度智 能驾驶，城市智能驾驶也将逐步普及，推动中国乃至全球电动车市场发展。 • 中国车企已成为全球电动车市场的重要参与者，零跑汽车电动车出货量位 居全球第 11 名，预计 2024-2025 年销量和排名将进一步提升，中国企业 在电池、电驱动、芯片等核心零部件上具备优势。 • 中国在全球汽车产业中占据主导地位，尤其在碳化硅驱动模块等零部件方 面，预计 ...

智驾平权加速渗透，看好比亚迪、零跑汽车 摘要 • 新能源汽车渗透率加速提升重塑行业竞争格局，比亚迪发布全新智能驾驶 战略，全系标配天成智驾，推动智驾平权，超出市场预期。 • 吉利发布千里浩瀚高阶智驾方案，包括高速 N 微分和城市文化功能，将陆 续搭载于银河系列车型。 • 零跑汽车发布 B10，首次在 12 万元级别车型搭载激光雷达高阶智驾，全 系标配自动泊车，支持高速 A 及城区 CNAP 功能，实现智驾平权。 • 整车资产支架全面升级推动行情扩散，整车投资机会在于智能化赋能后的 销量和利润提升，零部件机会在于硬件公司业绩兑现和新技术供应商估值 提升。 • 比亚迪订单中智驾版占比受新旧款切换影响，清库缓慢经销商占比可达 50%以上，预计三月中下旬智驾版订单将全面爆发。 • 比亚迪核心竞争力在于成本控制能力，销量规模效应降低单车固定成本， 上游供应链优势支持其估值上行。 • 零跑汽车工程化能力强大，快速迭代至全新平台，B10 实现高速 NOA 等 功能，并推广至所有车型，24 年四季度首次实现净利润转正，毛利率达 13.3%，销量预计持续增长，PS 较低，股价上涨潜力大。 Q&A 2025 年乘用车板块的整体变 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for Leap Motor is 0.9x, suggesting potential for valuation re-rating compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net loss is forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. Sales and Market Performance - Leap Motor's Q4 2024 revenue reached RMB 13,461 million, a year-on-year increase of 155%, with a gross margin of 13.3% [9]. - The company sold 120,863 vehicles in Q4 2024, marking a 118% increase compared to the same quarter in the previous year [9]. - The average selling price of vehicles increased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 107,099 [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].