Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor (09863) has seen a significant stock increase of over 5%, currently trading at HKD 50.45, with a transaction volume of HKD 494 million [1] Group 1: Store Expansion - Leap Motor has opened 85 new stores recently, bringing the total number of stores to 1,068 as of January 4, 2026, establishing a broad and synergistic sales service network [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - In December 2025, Leap Motor entered a strategic partnership with China FAW Group, with FAW investing HKD 3.744 billion at a premium [1] Group 3: Financial Performance - Huatai Securities reported that Leap Motor has completed a comprehensive self-research and platform construction over the past decade, achieving nearly 600,000 vehicle sales last year and is on track for its first annual profit [1] - The company aims for a sales target of 1 million vehicles this year and a long-term goal of 4 million vehicles [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - From 2025 to 2027, Leap Motor is expected to enter a new global vehicle cycle, with strategic partnerships contributing to incremental growth, leading to rapid revenue growth and a profitability turning point [1]

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor (09863) has seen a significant stock increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 50.45, with a trading volume of HKD 494 million, following the announcement of new store openings and strategic partnerships [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Leap Motor has opened 85 new stores recently, bringing the total number of stores to 1,068 as of January 4, 2026, establishing a broad and synergistic sales service network [1] - In December 2025, Leap Motor entered a strategic partnership with China FAW Group, with FAW investing HKD 3.744 billion at a premium [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - According to Huatai Securities, Leap Motor has completed a comprehensive self-research and platform construction over the past decade, achieving nearly 600,000 vehicle sales last year and is on track for its first annual profit [1] - The company aims to sell 1 million vehicles this year and has a long-term target of 4 million vehicles, with expectations of rapid revenue growth and a profitability turning point from 2025 to 2027 due to a new global vehicle cycle and strategic partnerships contributing incremental growth [1]

Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a dichotomy between companies focusing on volume, like BYD, and those emphasizing quality, like Seres [1] - BYD's total sales in 2025 reached 4.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, with the Ocean and Dynasty series contributing 88% of total sales [1] - Seres' new car deliveries exceeded 420,000 units in 2025, marking a 9.25% year-on-year growth [1] Financial Performance - BYD's cumulative global sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.26 million units, up 18.64% year-on-year, with revenue of 566.27 billion yuan, a 13% increase, and a net profit of 23.33 billion yuan, down 7.55% [3] - In comparison, Seres sold 340,700 units in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year decline of 3.82% in new energy vehicle sales, generating revenue of 110.53 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.31 billion yuan, up 31.56% [3][6] Market Dynamics - BYD earns approximately 7,157 yuan per vehicle sold, while Seres earns about 15,591 yuan, indicating a significant difference in profitability per unit sold [6] - The high-end model "Wenjie" contributes 90% of Seres' revenue, highlighting the importance of premium offerings in the current market landscape [6] Consumer Behavior - Price sensitivity has been a primary driver for consumers in the electric vehicle market, with many opting for brands like BYD and Seres based on affordability [7][8] - The perception of value for money has become a key factor in consumer decision-making, as seen in the experiences of buyers who prioritize cost-effectiveness [8] Competitive Landscape - Brands like BYD and Seres are attempting to penetrate the high-end market, but face challenges in shifting consumer perceptions from low-cost to high-value offerings [15][18] - The strategy of simply increasing product specifications without addressing brand perception and service quality has proven ineffective in the high-end segment [18] Strategic Insights - Successful high-end brands like NIO and Wenjie have established a comprehensive value system that goes beyond product specifications, focusing on quality, service, and user experience [21][24] - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift where consumers are increasingly prioritizing quality and reliability over low prices, indicating a potential challenge for brands that rely heavily on cost competitiveness [27][29] Future Outlook - For brands like BYD to succeed in the high-end market, they must resolve the conflict between their low-cost heritage and the demands for high-end value, transitioning from a focus on selling products to selling value [29]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company aims to become a world-class automotive enterprise, targeting sales of 1 million units in 2026 and 4 million units in the long term [4][5] - The company has established a comprehensive self-research and platform-based manufacturing system, achieving a sales volume of approximately 597,000 units in 2025, marking a significant improvement in its fundamentals [2][3] - The strategic investment from FAW Group, acquiring approximately 5% equity for about HKD 3.74 billion, highlights the recognition of the company's long-term strategy [3] Sales and Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve sales of 600,000, 1,040,000, and 1,420,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 68.3 billion, RMB 123.5 billion, and RMB 168.8 billion [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 6.6 million, RMB 51.1 million, and RMB 82.5 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11] Strategic Developments - The company has signed a powertrain cooperation agreement with FAW, focusing on the joint development of range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the first model expected to be mass-produced in 2026 [3] - The D-series models, including D19 and D99, are set to launch in 2026, enhancing the company's high-end product lineup [3][4] Market Expansion - The company plans to leverage Stellantis' distribution channels to export over 60,000 vehicles in 2025, entering 35 countries with more than 800 overseas stores [2][4] - The strategic cooperation with FAW and Stellantis is expected to drive growth and profitability during the upcoming new vehicle cycle [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong automotive stocks collectively declined, with Great Wall Motors falling nearly 7%, NIO and Xpeng down over 4.2%, and other companies like Chery, Leap Motor, and Geely dropping close to 4% [1] - A report from CICC indicates that by 2026, the domestic automotive industry in China will face certain challenges in internal demand, while overseas sales are expected to grow steadily. The investment strategy favors auto parts over complete vehicles, focusing on opportunities in AI-related sectors such as robotics, intelligent driving, and data center liquid cooling [1] - A separate report forecasts that global electric vehicle sales growth will reach its lowest level since the pandemic began in 2020, with an expected increase of only 13% to 24 million units by 2026, significantly lower than the 22% growth anticipated for 2025 due to a slowdown in the European market and a rapid decline in the U.S. market [1] Group 2 - The latest stock prices and changes for major automotive companies are as follows: Great Wall Motors at 14.090 (-6.81%), NIO at 39.440 (-4.55%), Xpeng at 76.950 (-4.23%), Chery at 29.040 (-3.84%), Leap Motor at 47.700 (-3.75%), Geely at 17.550 (-3.57%), Li Auto at 66.600 (-2.13%), BYD at 96.950 (-1.82%), and others showing minor declines [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles. The policy is expected to significantly boost the sales of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][9][18]. - The report maintains a judgment of "price increase and stable volume" for domestic passenger car demand in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry despite potential market fluctuations [18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2026 Vehicle Replacement Policy - The policy supports scrapping and replacing personal vehicles with subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 CNY) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 CNY) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [9][10]. - It also includes support for scrapping old commercial vehicles and promoting the electrification of city buses [9][10]. 2. Market Share Tracking in PHEV Segment - The report focuses on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as they adjust their market strategies and configurations [11]. - The analysis indicates significant variance in market shares due to increased supply and competitive strategies [11]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy aligns with expectations, and the report anticipates a rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger car sales due to the subsidy structure [18]. - The report reflects on the previous year's strategy of "emerging from deflation," which has proven to be correct, and emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes and strategic adjustments by leading companies [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, and others for potential growth [19]. - Specific companies are categorized into "right-side" and "left-side" targets based on their operational performance and market positioning [19].

Core Insights - The 2025 Chinese automotive market showcased a "stronger getting stronger, increasing differentiation" trend amid deepening new energy transitions and intense industry competition [1] Group 1: Performance of Leading Companies - BYD achieved sales of 4.6024 million vehicles in 2025, with overseas sales surpassing 1 million for the first time, marking a 145% year-on-year increase in passenger and pickup truck sales [2] - BYD's pure electric vehicle sales reached 2.2567 million units, a nearly 28% increase, surpassing Tesla's 1.636 million units, making BYD the global leader in annual electric vehicle sales [2] - Geely also exceeded its annual sales target, achieving 3.0246 million units sold, a 39% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.6878 million units, up 90% [2] Group 2: Performance of Other Companies - Dongfeng Motor achieved its dual target of over 1 million new energy vehicles and 1.5 million total vehicle sales, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.04 million, a 21% increase [3] - Changan Automobile reported sales of 2.913 million vehicles, a growth of 8.5%, with new energy vehicle sales of 1.109 million, up 51% [5] - Chery Group sold 2.8064 million vehicles, a 7.8% increase, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 903,800 units, a 54.9% increase [5] Group 3: Underperformance of Certain Companies - China FAW achieved a total vehicle sales of 3.302 million, a 3.2% increase, but fell short of its target of 3.45 million [4] - Great Wall Motors reported sales of 1.3237 million vehicles, a 7.33% increase, but only achieved 33.09% of its 4 million target [5][6] - New energy vehicle sales for Great Wall reached 403,700 units, a 25.44% increase, but the overall performance was below expectations [5][6] Group 4: New Forces in the Market - Among new forces, Leap Motor, Xiaomi, and Xpeng all exceeded their annual sales targets, with Leap Motor achieving 596,600 units sold, marking a 119.3% target completion rate [7] - Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries surpassed 50,000 in December 2025, exceeding its annual target of 350,000 [7] - NIO and Li Auto, however, did not meet their targets, with NIO selling 326,000 units and Li Auto selling 406,300 units, both falling short of their respective goals [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor aims to transition from a follower to a leader in the electric vehicle industry over the next decade, leveraging its technological advancements and product maturity to achieve sales targets exceeding 4 million units annually [2][3]. Company Overview - Leap Motor was established on December 24, 2015, and is positioned as a technology-driven smart electric vehicle company, launching its first mass-produced model, the Leap S01, in November 2017 [3]. - The company has developed a competitive in-house parts system and claims to have mastered all core technologies necessary for electric vehicle production [3]. Technological Development - Leap Motor emphasizes "full-domain self-research," covering 65% of the vehicle's cost with core technologies, and maintains a high proportion of R&D personnel, which was 90% during its startup phase and remains at 80% [3][4]. - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in sales, with a projected delivery of 596,555 vehicles in 2025, representing a 103% year-on-year growth [4]. Market Positioning - Leap Motor is transitioning from being categorized as a new force in the automotive industry to aiming for global recognition as a world-class electric vehicle manufacturer [5]. - The D series, which includes flagship models priced between 250,000 to 300,000 yuan, is designed to compete with luxury vehicles priced between 500,000 to 1,000,000 yuan, while maintaining a cost-based pricing strategy [5]. Strategic Partnerships - China FAW Group has become a strategic shareholder in Leap Motor, marking a significant recognition of the company's achievements over the past decade [6]. - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to enhance Leap Motor's international presence and operational efficiency, with the company currently covering 35 countries and regions globally [7]. Future Outlook - Leap Motor aims to achieve its goal of becoming a world-class smart electric vehicle company, supported by its technological capabilities and strategic partnerships [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to become a world-class smart electric vehicle manufacturer in the next decade, driven by technological innovation and global expansion [1][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - The founder and CEO, Zhu Jiangming, reflected on the company's ten-year journey in the automotive industry, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control by the founding team despite new investments [2]. - As of now, the company has delivered over 1.2 million vehicles, with an expected annual sales volume of nearly 600,000 units in 2025, positioning it as a leader among new automotive manufacturers [2]. Group 2: Historical Challenges - The company faced significant challenges in its early years, describing the past decade as "nine lives," indicating the difficulties encountered in achieving profitability and market acceptance [3]. - The initial market response to the first model, S01, was lukewarm, leading to financial and market pressures until the successful launch of the T03 model in 2020, which validated the company's strategy of offering high-value products [5]. Group 3: Product Development and Financial Milestones - The launch of the C11 model in September 2021 marked a significant turning point, offering strong product capabilities and achieving a notable market presence [6]. - In 2023, the company achieved a milestone by reaching a positive gross margin of 0.5%, indicating its first profitable year in vehicle manufacturing [6]. Group 4: Future Goals and Strategies - The company has set an ambitious target of achieving annual sales of 4 million vehicles in the next decade, supported by a clear strategy that includes expanding its product line and accelerating global operations [9][12]. - Plans include launching a full range of vehicles from A0 to D class over the next three years and establishing a presence in key international markets through partnerships and local operations [12]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - The company will face intense competition in the mainstream market segment priced between 150,000 to 250,000 yuan, with new entrants like Huawei and Xiaomi [14]. - Global expansion will require adaptation to local regulations, consumer habits, and infrastructure, alongside the need to build multiple factories to support the production of 4 million vehicles [14].