撰文 / 牛跟尚 设计 / 师 超 1月6日，新年伊始，万象更新。以"汽车品牌创新推动力"为主题的第十一届金轩盛典典礼在北京举行。现场颁发"年度营销创新团队金奖""年度作品类 金奖""年度案例类金奖""年度公益与社会责任金奖""年度营销机构金奖"等50多项荣誉。这些年度金奖是从110个申报案例经过初评和终审按照票数及评 审委员会讨论产生。 来自一汽、东风、上汽、长安、北汽、奇瑞、广汽、江淮、吉利、长城、赛力斯、蔚来、零跑等汽车集团旗下40多个品牌以及固特异、汽车之家、中汽 传媒、迪光数字等汽车全生态链50多家板块（子分公司）及营销单元榜上有名，100多位汽车营销高管、总监、经理和行业专家、高校教授与学者，见 一个个精彩的营销案例如璀璨的星辰，照亮了商业的苍穹：从整合营销的宏大布局到事件营销的震撼出击，从 IP 营销的创意联动到公益营销的温暖传 递，每个获奖案例都是智慧和汗水的结晶，是创新和突破的象征。它们不仅为企业带来了荣耀和发展，更为整个汽车营销行业树立了新的标杆，指引了 前进的方向。 领取营销创新团队奖的一汽-大众销售有限责任公司媒介中心部长刘耿表示，回首2024年的核心词就是感谢，感谢社会各界、感谢广大 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company is positioned as a technology-driven smart electric vehicle manufacturer with comprehensive self-research and manufacturing capabilities, covering vehicle design, R&D, manufacturing, intelligent driving, and battery systems [9] - The company is accelerating its globalization efforts, with plans to launch new models in Europe, including the B10, C10, and T03, which are expected to enhance its market presence [10][28] - The company has established a strategic partnership with Stellantis to leverage its global market resources and enhance competitiveness in overseas markets [55][62] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Contribution - The overseas market, particularly Europe, is expected to contribute significantly to the company's growth, with a focus on meeting the 2025 carbon emission standards [5][35] - The T03 model has shown strong sales growth due to government policies promoting vehicle trade-in programs, achieving a year-on-year increase of 120% in sales [24] Section 2: Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2023, the company delivered 144,000 electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, with the C series models accounting for over 73.3% of total deliveries [15] - The company anticipates a significant increase in deliveries in 2024, with a projected total of 87,000 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 94.8% [15] Section 3: Product Development and Strategy - The company is developing seven new models, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and market competitiveness [10][53] - The C10 model is positioned to fill a gap in Stellantis's B-segment SUV lineup, expected to perform well in the European market due to its competitive pricing and features [59] Section 4: Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with Stellantis includes joint development and tuning of vehicle chassis to improve global competitiveness [30] - The establishment of a joint venture with Stellantis aims to facilitate the company's entry into international markets, with a focus on leveraging Stellantis's distribution network [55][62]

Group 1 - A new company named Leap International Trade (Jinhua) Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB, focusing on battery sales, automobile sales, new energy vehicle sales, and smart power distribution and control equipment sales [1] - Leap International Trade is wholly owned by Leap Motor (09863.HK) [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company, with a target market value range of 449-505 billion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of 35.92-40.41 HKD [2][360][369]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in domestic sales, with a significant increase in new model launches and an expansion of its sales channels, particularly through collaboration with Stellantis for international market entry [2][21][88]. - The company has achieved a turnaround in gross profit, with a gross margin of 8.10% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability as sales volumes increase [2][39][342]. - The company is set to launch new models (C10/C16) in 2024, which are expected to drive sales growth, with a cumulative sales increase of 100% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [2][53][54]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 314.13 billion, 561.00 billion, and 814.00 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to shift from losses of -37.21 billion and -5.78 billion in 2024 and 2025 to a profit of 23.72 billion in 2026 [3][342][351]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in sales volume, with domestic retail expected to reach 287,561 units in 2024 and 419,000 units in 2025 [342][345]. Market Dynamics - The global automotive market is segmented into five major regions, with the EU expected to become a significant growth area for Chinese automotive brands due to favorable tariff conditions and a growing preference for low-energy vehicles [2][100][129]. - The EU market for passenger vehicles is approximately 10 million units, with a notable shift towards small, low-energy vehicles, creating opportunities for Chinese brands to penetrate this market [2][105][129]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its strong product capabilities, full-stack self-research in electronic and electrical architecture, and international partnerships to enhance its competitive position [2][21][81]. - The "Four-Leaf Clover" architecture, which integrates multiple functionalities into a single system, supports the company's strategy of low-cost, high-intelligence vehicle production [2][82][86]. International Expansion - The establishment of "Leap International" in partnership with Stellantis marks a strategic move to expand into international markets, with plans to open over 500 sales points globally by the end of 2025 [2][88][330]. - The company has already opened 339 stores in 13 European countries, indicating a strong start to its international sales strategy [2][330][331].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company achieved a record monthly delivery of 40,169 vehicles in November, representing a year-on-year growth of 117.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2%. Cumulatively, from January to November, the total sales reached 251,000 vehicles, marking a 100.1% increase year-on-year, thus exceeding the annual target of 250,000 vehicles ahead of schedule [6][8]. - The company is expected to continue its strong sales growth due to a robust order backlog, a rich new vehicle lineup, and the anticipated launch of high-priced models like the C16. The sales target for 2025 is set at 500,000 vehicles, indicating a sustained high growth rate [6][8]. - The company is expanding its product offerings globally, with plans to launch 2-3 new models each year over the next three years. The B series, including the compact SUV B10, is scheduled for release in Q1 2025 [7][8]. - The domestic market is characterized by a strong new vehicle cycle and competitive pricing, which is expected to drive sales growth and improve financial metrics. The partnership with Stellantis for overseas expansion is anticipated to enhance profitability through a low-investment, flexible approach [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November deliveries reached 40,169 units, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 117.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2%. Total sales from January to November amounted to 251,000 units, achieving a 100.1% year-on-year growth [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company has a strong order pipeline and plans to introduce new models, with a sales target of 500,000 vehicles for 2025. The anticipated growth is supported by the launch of high-priced models and expansion into overseas markets [6][8]. Product Development - The company plans to launch 2-3 new models annually over the next three years, with the B series set to debut in early 2025. The focus is on expanding its product range to cater to different market segments [7][8]. Market Strategy - The domestic market strategy emphasizes competitive pricing and a strong new vehicle cycle, while the international strategy involves collaboration with Stellantis to leverage its global resources for efficient market entry [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Leap Motor's operational performance improved in the third quarter, with a year-on-year sales increase of 95% to 86,000 units and a revenue growth of 74% to 9.86 billion yuan [1] - The growth is attributed to the support of the old car replacement subsidy policy and the company's continuous launch of new models to meet consumer demand, with expected monthly sales to remain between 25,000 to 40,000 units [1] Group 2 - The firm maintains a "Outperform" rating for Leap Motor and raises the target price from 30.1 HKD to 46.1 HKD [2]

新消费本周跨境出海的主要内容有：10月汽车出口54.2万辆 同比增长11.1%；比亚迪计划明年初起在韩 国推出乘用车；厦门空港跨境电商出口包裹年内突破1亿件。 行业要闻 零跑汽车计划在2025年底前实现欧洲本地化生产 由于欧盟加征关税，零跑汽车加速推进本地化生产计划，计划在欧洲实现本地化制造，以降低关税和运 输成本，其预计在2025年年底前实现本地化生产。据悉，该公司计划在2025年实现50万台或更高的销量 目标，并通过B系列车型的推出进一步提升市场份额，预计毛利率将达到10%以上。 厦门空港跨境电商出口包裹年内突破1亿件 据海关总署消息，受益"双11"与"黑五"促销叠加，厦门空港口岸迎来跨境电商包裹出口高峰。截至11月 11日，厦门海关年内共监管经厦门空港口岸出口的跨境电商包裹数突破1亿件。据了解，希音、拼多 多、菜鸟等头部跨境电商平台先后落地厦门空港，厦门空港口岸跨境电商货物出口单量继续保持快速增 长态势。 比亚迪海狮07EV在欧洲正式上市 11月12日，比亚迪在德国法兰克福举办海狮07EV（BYD SEALION 7）欧洲暨德国上市发布会。这是比 亚迪在欧洲推出的第七款纯电动汽车。海狮07EV预计明年向 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in gross margin and a reduction in net loss for Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 8.1%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year and 5.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The company achieved record-high vehicle deliveries in Q3 2024, with 86,000 units delivered, representing a 94% year-on-year increase and a 62% quarter-on-quarter increase [7] - The company is expanding its global presence, having launched models in Europe and established a comprehensive partnership with Stellantis [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.86 billion yuan, a 74% increase year-on-year and an 84% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - The net loss for Q3 2024 was 690 million yuan, down from 990 million yuan in Q3 2023 and 1.2 billion yuan in Q2 2024, indicating a narrowing loss [5][6] Sales and Delivery - The sales structure improved, leading to a quarter-on-quarter increase in average revenue per vehicle, estimated at approximately 114,000 yuan, which is a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter [7] - The sales volume for different models in Q3 2024 was as follows: T03 (17,000 units), C10 (5,000 units), C11 (21,000 units), C16 (22,000 units), and others [7] Global Expansion - The company has completed EU WVTA certification for models C10 and T03, officially launching in Europe in September 2024 [8] - As of October 2024, the company has opened 339 dealerships in Europe, all equipped for sales and after-sales services, with plans to expand into Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and South America by 2025 [8] Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts sales of 287,000 and 518,000 units for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with projected revenues of 33.3 billion and 59.1 billion yuan [9] - The estimated net profit for 2024 is projected to be -3.4 billion yuan, improving to -213 million yuan in 2025, and turning positive with a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan in 2026 [10][12]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Leapmotor (9863 HK) [8] Core Views - Leapmotor's Q3 2024 results exceeded expectations, with gross margin improvement and record high per-vehicle profitability driven by product mix optimization and economies of scale [1][3][4] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 9 86 billion in Q3 2024, up 74 3% YoY, with net loss narrowing to RMB -6 9 billion [3] - Q3 2024 sales reached 86,000 units, approaching H1 2024 cumulative sales, with monthly sales hitting new highs [3] - Gross margin improved to 8 1% in Q3 2024, up 6 9pct YoY and 5 3pct QoQ, with per-vehicle gross profit reaching RMB 0 9 million, a historical high [4] - The company is entering a strong new product cycle globally, with plans to launch 2-3 new models annually over the next three years [5] Business Performance - Q3 2024 sales increased 94 4% YoY and 61 7% QoQ to 86,000 units, with July-September sales of 22,000, 30,000, and 34,000 units respectively [3] - Revenue per vehicle was RMB 114,000 in Q3 2024, down RMB 13,000 YoY but up RMB 14,000 QoQ due to increased C-series contribution (78 3% of sales) [3] - October 2024 orders exceeded 40,000 units, indicating strong momentum for Q4 2024 [3] - Sales and administrative expense ratio decreased to 9 0% in Q3 2024, down 2 5pct YoY and 5 4pct QoQ [4] - R&D expense ratio was 7 9% in Q3 2024, down 0 5pct YoY and 5 2pct QoQ [4] Product and Market Strategy - Leapmotor covers the RMB 50,000-200,000 price segment and has expanded internationally with T03 and C10 models [5] - The company plans to launch 3 B-series models in 2025, priced between RMB 100,000-150,000, including the compact SUV B10 in Q1 2025 [5] - Domestic sales network includes 493 sales outlets and 362 service centers across 204 cities as of September 2024 [5] - International presence includes 339 European outlets as of October 2024, with plans to exceed 500 global outlets by 2025 [5] - The company is accelerating autonomous driving development, planning to expand its team to 500 by end-2024 and introduce advanced ADAS features on the LEAP 3 5 platform in H1 2025 [5] Growth Outlook - Domestic growth driven by strong new product cycle and competitive pricing, with scale effects and product mix optimization expected to boost profitability [6] - International expansion through partnership with Stellantis enables asset-light overseas growth with low initial investment and rapid deployment [6] - Sales forecasts: 300,000 units in 2024, 500,000 units in 2025, and 750,000 units in 2026 [6]

零跑汽车（09863.HK） 乘用车 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 14 日 国内基本盘毛利率大幅改善，出海进程加速 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...