Core Viewpoint - Weitlong Delicious (09985) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at 13.55 HKD with a transaction volume of 44.41 million HKD, indicating strong market interest and positive growth prospects for the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In September, Weitlong's overall growth rate exceeded 20%, with significant growth in konjac products and stabilization in spicy snack products [1] - The cost pressure for konjac powder has passed its peak, and a downward cost cycle is expected from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Product and Market Insights - Weitlong's konjac products are in a rapid growth phase, with classic flavors such as spicy, numbing, and sour gaining market penetration, and new sesame flavor sales are quickly rising [1] - The company has achieved comprehensive channel coverage, utilizing a "supplementary sales + assisted sales" model to support distributors and enhance growth [1] Group 3: Competitive Position - Weitlong is positioned at the top level in the snack industry regarding network coverage and terminal control, effectively empowering new product promotions through its channels [1]

Summary of Weilong Delicious Global Holdings (9985.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weilong Delicious Global Holdings (9985.HK) - **Industry**: Snacks, specifically konjac-based and seasoned flour products - **Market Position**: Dominant player in the konjac-based snacks category with a market share of approximately 42% as of 2024 [1][29] Key Points and Arguments 1. Growth Projections - **Sales and Net Profit CAGR**: Expected to grow at 11% and 13% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [2][44] - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues of RMB 6,266.3 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 9,087.4 million by 2027 [7][17] - **Volume Growth in Konjac**: Anticipated konjac volume growth of 25% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, driven by consumer penetration and channel expansion [22][29] 2. Competitive Landscape - **Rising Competition**: Acknowledgment of increasing competition from smaller players and the second-largest competitor, Yankershop [2][48] - **Weilong's Competitive Advantages**: - Established brand equity and market insight, allowing for better pricing strategies and consumer preference capture [23][51] - First-mover advantage with extensive national coverage, enabling flexible pricing in response to competition [24][56] - Smaller competitors face higher cost pressures and lower margins, making them vulnerable to Weilong's strategic pricing [23][51] 3. Pricing Strategy - **Gradual Price Reductions**: Expected price declines of 3% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 5% in 2027 due to increased market overlap with Yankershop [24][56] - **Impact of Pricing on Margins**: Despite competitive pricing pressures, Weilong is projected to maintain a stable gross profit margin (GPM) supported by raw material cost tailwinds and operational efficiencies [22][35] 4. Margin Trajectory - **Net Profit Margin (NPM) Improvement**: Expected to increase from 18.9% in 2025 to 19.5% in 2027 due to: - Declining raw material costs, with a projected 15% year-on-year decrease starting in 2026 [35] - Enhanced utilization rates and automation efforts, aiming for a utilization rate increase from 59% in 2022 to 95% by 2027 [36] - Positive operating leverage from scaling up operations and cross-selling between konjac and seasoned flour products [37] 5. Financial Metrics - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected to grow from RMB 0.48 in 2024 to RMB 0.73 in 2027 [7][17] - **Valuation**: Target price set at HK$13.90, based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2027E [3][41] - **Key Risks**: Include higher-than-expected competition, unfavorable raw material costs, and slower channel development [3][42] 6. Strategic Initiatives - **Channel Expansion**: Plans to increase point-of-sale (POS) coverage from 0.6 million to 1 million, enhancing market penetration [30] - **Product Diversification**: Opportunities for new SKUs and flavor enhancements to cater to diverse consumer preferences [31] Additional Important Insights - **Market Trends**: The konjac category is aligned with health-conscious consumer trends, with potential for significant growth as consumer awareness increases [21][29] - **Financial Health**: The company maintains a strong financial position with a market cap of HK$30.9 billion and an enterprise value of HK$24.4 billion [7][41] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding Weilong Delicious Global Holdings, highlighting its market position, growth potential, competitive advantages, and financial outlook.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in liquor sales during the recent double festival period, while new consumer categories maintain growth [3][11] - The food and beverage index experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points [11][13] - The liquor market is estimated to have seen an overall sales decline of 20% during the double festival, aligning with previous market expectations [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report notes that the liquor market is facing two types of differentiation: scene differentiation, where banquet scenarios are supported by demand for gatherings, and price differentiation, where high-end and cost-effective products perform well [11][12] - The beverage sector shows resilience due to its essential consumption nature, with functional drinks aligning with health trends and outdoor activities [12] Market Performance - The beverage sector outperformed the liquor sector, with soft drinks (+4.9%), dairy products (+1.8%), and health products (+1.3%) leading the performance [11][13] - Individual stocks such as Zhuangyuan Pasture, Yangyuan Beverage, and Guangming Meat Industry showed significant gains, while brands like Huanlejia and Gujing Gongjiu faced declines [11][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of whole milk powder showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [17][21] - The price of fresh milk has decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in domestic milk prices [17][21] Liquor Industry News - The report mentions the global launch of a new 25-degree product by Shanxi Fenjiu, highlighting the brand's commitment to quality and innovation [42] - The report also notes a significant increase in sales for the "Maopu" brand, which saw a 115% year-on-year growth in September [42] Recommended Portfolio - The report recommends stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares, emphasizing their growth potential and market positioning [4][46]

| 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 √ | 最新价 | 总市值 | 年初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02097 | 蜜雪集团 | 9.07% | 409.000 | 1552.64亿 | 101.98% | | 01364 | 古茗 | 4.35% | 21.600 | 513.69 Z | 117.30% | | 09896 | 名创优品 | 3.55% | 43.800 | 535.1亿 | -4.47% | | 02517 | 锅圈 | 3.24% | 3.190 | 84.54亿 | 79.23% | | 09866 | 蔚来-SW | 1.50% | 61.000 | 1503.15亿 | 75.29% | | 01318 | 毛戈平 | 1.18% | 102.900 | 504.47 | 79.04% | | 00325 | 布鲁可 | 0.50% | 89.950 | 223.8亿 | 49.05% | | 09992 | 泡泡玛特 | 0.47% | 256.000 | 3437.93亿 | 188.41% | | 02015 | ...

2025年10月08日 证券研究报告 | 2025年四季度食品饮料行业投资策略 底部蓄能，强者恒强 行业研究 · 行业专题 食品饮料 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：杨苑 证券分析师：柴苏苏 证券分析师：张未艾 联系人：王新雨 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn 021-60933124 021-61761064 021-61761031 021-60875135 S0980523090001 yangyuan4@guosen.com.cn chaisusu@guosen.com.cn zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn wangxinyu8@guosen.com.cn S0980523090003 S0980524080003 S0980525070005 n 市场回顾：受内需和消费者信心不足影响，今年以来食品饮料板块跑输指数，A股和H股累计上涨1%，其中，A股食品饮料（申万）下跌 4.7%，明显跑输沪深300（+17.9%）；H股食品饮料（申万）上涨29.5%，跑输恒生指数（+34%）。 ü 品类分化，强者恒强。二季度以来酒类受政策影响，股价持 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09985 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,431,145,578 | | 0 | | 2,431,145,578 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,431,145,578 | | 0 | | 2,431,145,578 | 公司名稱: 卫龙美味全球控股有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） 呈交日期: ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on three companies in the consumer goods sector. The food and beverage index declined by 2.5%, ranking 23rd among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector (+0.9%), other food products (+0.0%), and meat products (-0.0%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor market is showing bottoming characteristics, with the consumer goods sector focusing on three companies. The liquor market's sales have improved slightly in Q3, but year-on-year declines persist due to the ongoing impact of alcohol bans on business consumption and overall consumer pressure [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 2.5%, ranking 23rd out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector, other food products, and meat products showed relatively better performance [12][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder in GDT auctions was $3,790 per ton, down 0.5% month-on-month but up 9.9% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, stable month-on-month but down 3.5% year-on-year [16][17]. Liquor Industry News - Moutai's terminal sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The company is deepening its reform process and emphasizing sustainable development, with an increased dividend rate [40][44]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business, with a downward trend in raw material costs expected to continue until 2027 [11]. 2. Weilong Delicious: New product launches are expected to stabilize the noodle product line, with significant growth in the konjac category [11]. 3. Bairun Co.: The cocktail business is expected to see slight growth, with a focus on new products and whiskey brand development [11][44].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully transformed from a street snack into a national business over the past two decades, with a strong focus on product innovation, channel expansion, and governance efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Product and Revenue - The classic spicy strips continue to provide stable cash flow, while vegetable products like konjac and seaweed snacks are capturing the growing health-conscious demand, with projected revenue of 3.37 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 54% of total revenue [1] - The spicy strip industry is experiencing expansion, with the company leading in the sweet and spicy segment, supported by a differentiated product strategy that includes five major flavor types [1][2] Group 2: Channel Strategy - The company has a solid foundation in traditional retail channels such as supermarkets and convenience stores, while rapidly expanding into bulk snacks and live e-commerce, achieving 94 live broadcasts on Douyin in 90 days [1] - The company employs a dual-channel strategy to enhance control over distributors, with the number of cooperative distributors increasing to 1,879, a year-on-year growth of approximately 10% [1] Group 3: Supply Chain and Governance - The company operates five direct-owned factories in Henan and has introduced 5G production lines, which have reduced costs and ensured food safety [1] - Family ownership of 78% enhances decision-making efficiency, and equity incentives are in place to bind the core team for future expansion [1] Group 4: Growth Potential in Konjac Products - The konjac food segment has shown a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2014 to 2023, indicating significant market potential [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing flavor research and expanding its product offerings to solidify its leading position in the konjac market [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are 7.517 billion yuan, 9.019 billion yuan, and 10.630 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.0% for the first two years and 17.9% for 2027 [2] - Expected net profit for the same years is 1.408 billion yuan, 1.739 billion yuan, and 2.151 billion yuan, with growth rates of 31.8%, 23.5%, and 23.7% respectively [2]

Company Overview - Guotou Securities has issued a "Buy-A" investment rating for Weilong Delicious (09985) with a 6-month target price of HKD 14.27 [1] - The classic spicy strips continue to provide stable cash flow, while vegetable products like konjac and seaweed snacks are capturing the health-conscious demand, with projected revenue of CNY 3.37 billion in 2024, accounting for 54% of total revenue, marking the first time these products become the largest category [1] Industry Trends - The spicy strip industry is experiencing expansion, with flavor differentiation reshaping the competitive landscape, where Weilong's sweet and spicy flavor leads the market [2] - The industry has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% from 2014 to 2023, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3] Competitive Advantages - Weilong has established itself as a high-trust brand through automated and transparent factories, enhancing production efficiency [2] - The company employs a differentiated strategy with five major flavor categories: sweet, spicy, fragrant, durian spicy, and regional spicy, continuously innovating its product matrix [2] - Weilong has effectively turned spicy strips into a social currency among younger consumers, increasing user engagement [2] Distribution and Supply Chain - The company maintains a solid foundation in traditional channels such as supermarkets and convenience stores while rapidly expanding into bulk snacks and live e-commerce, with 94 live broadcasts on Douyin in 90 days, leading to a continuous increase in online sales proportion [1][2] - The number of cooperative distributors is expected to increase to 1,879 in 2024, a year-on-year growth of approximately 10% [2] - Weilong's supply chain includes five direct-operated factories in Henan, incorporating 5G production lines to reduce costs and ensure food safety [1] Future Outlook - The konjac food segment is still in its early growth phase, with significant market potential, and the versatility of konjac allows for extensive flavor innovation [3] - To maintain its leading position, Weilong needs to enhance flavor research and development, leverage its brand influence to promote new flavors, and expand its distribution network and SKU offerings [3]