#20260126卫龙美味更新推荐：春节备货节奏正常，当前仍为26年极佳布局位置 今日股价早盘回调较多我们认为主要系资金面扰动，基本面春节备货如常推进，#回调为较好布局点位。 #魔芋（类薯片品类）有望成为百亿级的单品：魔芋品类"Q弹爽"+"低热量特性突出"，与其他零食品类具备足够的 区隔性，奠定百亿大单品的基础。 公司创新性开创该品类，消费心智强，魔芋口味矩阵完善且持续创新口味，26年魔芋品类红利有望持续强兑现。 #市场担忧魔芋竞争+渠道对上游议价：我们认为魔芋作为深加工商品，且公司逐步推新完善魔芋口味矩阵，零食 不会无限价格战（商品有差异度），竞争问题可更乐观看待。 产业链话语权的核心在于消费者的认知，消费者对于卫龙品牌认知深，头部品牌预计受到下游议价的影响小。 今日股价早盘回调较多我们认为主要系资金面扰动，基本面春节备货如常推进，#回调为较好布局点位。 26年辣条有望企稳+魔芋品类有望强兑现+新品类期权，26年业绩增速有望超20%，当前股价对应26年17.5亿净利润 为15XPE，#兼具成长性+低估值，看好26年估值修复至20X+。 #26年辣条有望企稳：公司23年推出麻辣麻辣进一步完善辣条口味矩阵，前期 ...

Core Points - The Zhengzhou Pingjiang Chamber of Commerce held its re-election conference and 2026 New Year meeting, attended by over 400 guests, marking a significant moment in the chamber's development history [1] - Liu Weiping, Chairman of Weilang Delicious, was elected as the new president of the third council, injecting new momentum into the chamber's development [1][4] - The second council president, Tang Minghui, presented a work report highlighting the chamber's achievements, including the growth of member enterprises to an annual output value exceeding 30 billion yuan and the establishment of national industry standards for seasoning noodle products [1][6] Group 1 - The new council was elected unanimously, including vice presidents and secretaries, with a formal inauguration ceremony for the third council [4] - The handover of the council flag symbolized the responsibility and mission of the chamber, emphasizing unity and collaboration [4] Group 2 - Liu Weiping emphasized the chamber's mission of "unity, communication, service, and win-win," aiming to create a broader platform for government-enterprise connections and resource sharing [6] - A cooperation agreement was signed between the Pingjiang High-tech Industrial Development Zone and the Zhengzhou Pingjiang Chamber of Commerce to enhance the collaboration of the food industry chain [6] - The Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce will continue to support and provide services for Hunan merchants, encouraging participation in the "Hunan Products Going Out" initiative to enhance the national influence of Hunan brands [6] Group 3 - Weilang, as a leading enterprise in China's snack food industry, has expanded from traditional seasoning noodle products to a diverse food industry group, including meat, bean, and konjac products [7] - The company has established strategic alliances with research institutions to promote industrial upgrades and has successfully penetrated both domestic and international markets [7] - The successful holding of this conference marks a new stage of high-quality development for the Zhengzhou Pingjiang Chamber of Commerce [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities as the peak season approaches [4][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.4% from January 19 to January 23, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.8 percentage points [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend, and has returned to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with strong demand for consumer goods, particularly in the snack segment, which continues to show upward momentum [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is positioned for a recovery as it approaches the peak season, with a notable increase in demand expected during the Spring Festival [4][12] - The sector's current valuation aligns with policy support aimed at boosting consumption, providing a safety margin for investments [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was weaker than the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like snacks (+6.1%), processed foods (+4.9%), and baked goods (+4.3%) showing relative strength [12][13] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder prices down 13.5% year-on-year as of January 20, 2026 [19][21] - The price of fresh milk was reported at 3.03 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [19][21] Alcohol Industry Data - In December 2025, the production of liquor (65-degree equivalent) decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a total production of 354.9 million liters for the year [42][43] Recommended Investment Targets - Key investment opportunities identified include raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector through reduced import costs, improved domestic demand, and increased foreign investment allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The RMB has accelerated its appreciation, breaking the 7 mark offshore on December 25 and reaching 6.96 onshore by January 22, indicating enhanced economic momentum and improved export competitiveness [1]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles (May-November 2020 and November-December 2022), the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Cost, Demand, and Valuation Dynamics - Cost: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the converted prices of imported raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic demand is a fundamental support for the strong RMB, which will further lower companies' restocking costs, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active restocking, thus reinforcing demand resilience [2]. - Valuation: The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, enhancing the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, which is expected to bring liquidity premiums to the food and beverage sector, known for its high foreign ownership [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main lines of focus for investment: 1. Cost benefits, recommending companies such as Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3]. 2. Demand recovery, recommending companies like Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3]. 3. Valuation recovery, recommending companies including Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3].

Summary of Wei Long Mei Wei Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Wei Long Mei Wei - **Industry**: Snack Food Industry, specifically focusing on spicy snacks and konjac products Key Points and Arguments - **Growth Expectations**: Wei Long Mei Wei anticipates over 30% growth during the New Year Festival, with the overall spicy snack business expected to stabilize and see slight growth throughout the year. The konjac new products are projected to continue exceeding expectations, driven by new flavors such as sesame sauce, porcini, and shock angle [2][4] - **Channel Management**: The company is enhancing its channel management by increasing product displays and SKU counts in convenience stores, which is expected to improve sales efficiency. The scale effect from konjac powder is also anticipated to bring cost benefits, slightly improving net profit margins [2][4] - **Market Position**: Wei Long Mei Wei is a leader in the spicy snack sector, having evolved from a noodle-based product company over nearly 30 years. The company has successfully upgraded its brand and product offerings, with vegetable products (especially konjac) now surpassing noodle products in market share [4] - **Consumer Trends**: There is a growing demand for healthy snacks among younger consumers, with konjac products showing a repurchase rate 1.2 times higher than spicy snacks. The innovation in sesame sauce flavor has gained significant market traction, maintaining over 20% growth [5][4] - **Sales Projections**: For 2026, konjac products are expected to contribute significantly to sales, with anticipated revenue from new flavors (porcini and shock angle) estimated at 400-500 million yuan. If distribution goes smoothly, actual sales may exceed these projections, with konjac products expected to achieve over 30% growth [6][4] - **Profit Forecast**: The total profit for 2026 is projected to be around 1.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 23%. The net profit margin is expected to rise to about 21%, benefiting from scale effects and reduced costs of konjac powder [3][9] - **Valuation**: The current valuation is approximately 16 times earnings, suggesting good upside potential. If the company is valued at 20-25 times earnings, there could be a 25%-50% increase in stock price [4][3] Additional Important Insights - **SKU Adjustments**: The spicy snack products are expected to see a slight decline in 2025 due to SKU adjustments, with some low-performing but well-rated products being removed. However, a slight recovery is expected in 2026, with a projected single-digit growth [7][8] - **Vegetable Products Growth**: The vegetable product segment is expected to grow by 28%, with seaweed contributing approximately 100 million yuan in revenue. If new product placements perform better than expected, growth forecasts may be revised upwards [9] - **Investment Recommendations**: Wei Long Mei Wei is highlighted as a key investment opportunity in the snack sector, with strong short-term performance indicators. Other recommended companies include Xi Mai and Wan Chen, but Wei Long is prioritized due to its favorable valuation [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights the "Spring Excitement" in the snack sector, indicating a historical high relative win rate of 70% for the food and beverage sector in the 40 days leading up to the Spring Festival [7][16] - The report emphasizes that the "Spring Excitement" is not solely dependent on the annual beta of the food and beverage sector, as structural opportunities still exist despite a long-term adjustment period since 2021 [7][16] - Key catalysts for the upcoming Spring Festival include concentrated demand for gifts and gatherings, which leads to more planned channel stocking, creating a positive feedback loop of expectations and validations [7][16][28] Group 2 - In December, the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 7.5 percentage points, with a decline of 5.2%, ranking last among 31 primary industries [7][61] - The report notes a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and soft drinks showing gains while liquor and beer experienced declines [7][61][64] - The absolute and relative valuations of the food and beverage sector are at their lowest since 2010, indicating potential investment opportunities [7][61][64] Group 3 - The report tracks the recovery of consumer confidence, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, showing improvement from the previous month [7][63] - It highlights that the liquor sector is facing weak demand and declining prices, with the price adjustments for premium liquor nearing levels seen between 2011 and 2015 [7][63][64] - The report identifies structural differentiation in costs, with some packaging materials and agricultural products experiencing price increases [7][63][64] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include a focus on liquor stocks that have undergone a four-year adjustment period, with potential for a "valuation + performance" double bottom [7][64] - For consumer goods, the report anticipates a moderate increase in industry prices in 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Anjuke Foods, Qianhe Flavor, and Eastroc Beverage [7][64] - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will provide a favorable environment for growth narratives, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and certain chain formats [7][64]

Core Viewpoint - Weitlong Meiwei has announced a donation of 500,000 yuan to the Yanran Angel Children's Hospital, specifically aimed at supporting medical assistance and rehabilitation for children with cleft lip and palate [1] Group 1: Donation and Impact - The donation will help the hospital provide professional medical services to more impoverished families with children suffering from cleft lip and palate [1] - The initiative reflects the company's commitment to social responsibility and the health and growth of special children, emphasizing that children are the hope of families and the future of society [1] Group 2: Ongoing Philanthropic Efforts - Weitlong's philanthropic activities have been continuous, including disaster relief efforts in Pingjiang and Gansu, as well as long-term involvement in giant panda protection and rural revitalization [1] - The company's sustained investment across various fields of public welfare highlights its dedication to combining corporate development with social responsibility [1] Group 3: Future Commitment - Weitlong plans to continue addressing social welfare needs and investing in public welfare initiatives, aiming to gather warmth and encourage more social participation in building a caring society [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the leading spicy snack company is expected to stabilize its noodle products in 2026 while experiencing rapid growth in its konjac new products, driven by scale effects that may lead to better-than-expected performance [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Outlook - The market perceives insufficient growth momentum for noodle products, with potential ongoing pressure due to weakened industry demand. However, the report suggests that noodle products may stabilize or see slight growth in 2026, while the konjac category is expected to achieve rapid growth through new flavors [2][3] Growth Drivers 1. The konjac industry is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size exceeding 30 billion yuan by 2025 and a CAGR of 12% over the next five years. The company holds the leading market share and has established strong brand recognition, which provides a competitive advantage. The growth in 2026 will be supported by three new flavors [3] 2. The decline in noodle products is attributed to SKU adjustments, but this impact is expected to diminish in 2026. New flavors and optimized channel displays are anticipated to enhance sales performance [3] 3. The combination of scale effects and cost advantages is expected to improve the company's profitability [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.26 billion, 8.59 billion, and 10.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 18%, and 18%. Net profit is expected to reach 1.41 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 32%, 23%, and 20% [5][3] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 16.69, indicating a favorable valuation compared to the industry average of 20.4. The report suggests a target P/E range of 20-25 for the company, corresponding to a market capitalization of 34.5 billion to 43 billion yuan, representing a potential upside of 20%-50% [3]

Company Developments - Former CEO of Wei Long, Sun Yinan, has joined Dayao as CEO, bringing extensive experience from Coca-Cola and other food companies [2][3] - Qian Dama International Holdings has initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong, aiming to raise funds for expanding its store network and enhancing supply chain capabilities, with a projected GMV of 14.8 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3] - Muyuan Foods has forecasted a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, representing a decline of 12.20% to 17.79% compared to the previous year [2][3][5] - Jinlongyu has announced the transfer of its stake in a joint venture with Mars China, with a total transaction value of $60 million, which is expected to impact its 2026 earnings significantly [6][5] Industry Trends - The fresh food retail sector is seeing significant growth, with Qian Dama leading the community fresh food chain market in China for five consecutive years [2][3] - The coffee industry in Yunnan has expanded its global reach, exporting to 34 countries and regions, with a notable increase in production and agricultural output [11] - The World Health Organization has called for increased taxation on sugary and alcoholic beverages to address public health issues, highlighting the economic burden of these products [12]