Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised Alibaba's (09988, BABA.US) capital expenditure forecast for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to 460 billion RMB, marking one of the most aggressive predictions on Wall Street, driven by the transformation of AI capital expenditure into growth expectations [1] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Growth Expectations - The AI capital expenditure transformation framework is reshaping growth expectations for Alibaba, with analysts noting a two-year lag behind U.S. cloud service giants like Amazon AWS and Google Cloud [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates Alibaba's current data center capacity at 3-4 GW, with plans to expand to 20 GW by 2032, necessitating an annual addition of approximately 2 GW capacity [1] - The capital expenditure scenarios set by Goldman Sachs include a baseline of 460 billion RMB, an optimistic scenario of 550 billion RMB, and a pessimistic scenario of 380 billion RMB, with conversion ratios varying accordingly [2] Group 2: International Expansion and Revenue Growth - Alibaba Cloud has established 91 availability zones across 29 regions, with international business revenue expected to grow from single digits to about 25% by the fiscal year 2028, reflecting a high double-digit compound annual growth rate [2] - The international pricing of Alibaba Cloud's Qwen model is significantly higher than domestic levels, indicating a premium in overseas markets [2] - Alibaba Cloud is accelerating the construction of data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, while upgrading existing facilities in Mexico and Japan, adding 28 AI-specific suites [2] Group 3: Short-term Challenges and Market Competition - Despite the target price increase, Goldman Sachs warns of short-term challenges for Alibaba, particularly due to the impact of investments in the instant commerce business, which is expected to see a significant decline in EBITA for the September quarter [3] - The competition in the instant commerce sector is identified as a critical variable, with market share expected to stabilize among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD at a ratio of 5:4:1 [3] - Alibaba needs to demonstrate that its investments in instant commerce can yield synergies, particularly through cross-selling to enhance commercialization monetization rates (CMR) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast for the next three years significantly to 460 billion RMB, marking the highest market prediction, and has increased its 12-month target price for US stocks by 14% from $179 to $205, while also raising the target price for Hong Kong stocks by 14% from HK$174 to HK$199, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The future capital expenditure forecast for Alibaba has been raised to 460 billion RMB, which is the highest among market predictions [1] - The target price for US stocks has been increased by 14% from $179 to $205 [1] - The target price for Hong Kong stocks has also been raised by 14% from HK$174 to HK$199 [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth Expectations - Cloud revenue growth for the next three quarters has been adjusted to year-on-year increases of 31%, 38%, and 37% due to breakthroughs in AI models and diversified chip supply support [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunity - Despite recent declines in Alibaba's earnings due to losses from instant e-commerce investments, the market should focus on the initial profitability turnaround of the Taobao and Tmall platforms and the growth potential in international cloud services [1] - The recent stock price pullback is viewed as an attractive buying opportunity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised Alibaba's (09988, BABA.US) capital expenditure forecast for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to 460 billion RMB, marking one of the most aggressive predictions on Wall Street, driven by AI capital expenditure transformation reshaping growth expectations [1] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Growth Expectations - The capital expenditure forecast for Alibaba is set at 460 billion RMB under the base case, with a conversion ratio of capital expenditure to revenue between 0.2-0.3; optimistic scenario predicts 550 billion RMB with a conversion ratio exceeding 0.3; pessimistic scenario sees expenditure drop to 380 billion RMB with a conversion ratio below 0.2 [2] - Analysts believe Alibaba's development trajectory lags behind U.S. cloud service giants like Amazon AWS and Google Cloud by about two years, correlating with technological breakthroughs such as ChatGPT and DeepSeek [1][2] - Alibaba's current data center capacity is estimated at 3-4 GW, with plans to expand to 20 GW by 2032, necessitating an annual addition of approximately 2 GW capacity, supporting large-scale capital investment over the next three years [1] Group 2: International Expansion and Revenue Growth - Alibaba Cloud has established 91 availability zones across 29 regions, with international business revenue expected to grow from single digits to about 25% by the fiscal year 2028, reflecting a high double-digit compound annual growth rate [2] - The international pricing of Alibaba Cloud's Qwen model is significantly higher than domestic levels, indicating a premium in overseas markets [2] - Alibaba Cloud is accelerating the construction of its first data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, while upgrading existing facilities in Mexico and Japan, adding 28 AI-specific suites [2] Group 3: Short-term Challenges - Despite the upward revision of target prices, Alibaba faces short-term challenges, with a projected 80% year-on-year decline in group EBITA for the September quarter due to investments in instant commerce [3] - The instant commerce business, including food delivery, is expected to incur losses of 36 billion RMB in the September quarter, up from 11 billion RMB in June [3] - Competition in the instant commerce sector is seen as a critical variable, with market share expected to stabilize at a ratio of 5:4:1 among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com [3]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯紫光国微10月13日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司目前与阿里巴巴集团控股有限 公司及其下属芯片业务公司无直接合作关系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenyin Wanguo maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, projecting a revenue of 252.8 billion yuan for Q2 FY26, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.8 billion yuan, down 65% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Projected revenue for Q2 FY26 is 252.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 12.8 billion yuan, which is a significant decrease of 65% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Operations - Healthy growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Taobao and Tmall, with an emphasis on improving monetization rates across the platform [1] - Cloud business maintains the largest market share, indicating strong competitive positioning [1] Group 3: Strategic Focus - International business is approaching breakeven, showcasing improved operational efficiency [1] - Strategic focus is on AI, cloud services, and instant retail, suggesting a long-term growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's stock performance has improved due to strong growth in its cloud business and advancements in AI, despite concerns over U.S.-China tensions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Goldman Sachs raised Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast for fiscal 2026–2028 to 460 billion Chinese yuan, among the highest in the market, and increased cloud revenue growth projections to 31%, 38%, and 37% year-over-year for the next three fiscal years [3] - Analysts expect Alibaba's second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue to rise 3.8% year-over-year to 245.5 billion Chinese yuan, with adjusted EBITA expected to fall 83% to 7.1 billion Chinese yuan [9] - CICC lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast by 1% to 1.06 trillion Chinese yuan and revised adjusted net profit downward by 17% for 2026 to 101.2 billion Chinese yuan [13] Group 2: Cloud Business and AI Developments - Analysts highlighted Alibaba Cloud's growth and early profit recovery on Taobao and Tmall as key drivers behind the stock rebound [1] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is projected to be 30% year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with an EBITA margin of 9% [9] - The firm noted that Alibaba unveiled new AI models and applications at its Apsara Conference, which are expected to drive sustained revenue and profit growth for the cloud unit [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs lifted its price forecast for Alibaba from $179 to $205, reflecting stronger visibility in e-commerce profitability and international cloud expansion [4] - Daiwa Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating despite projecting a relatively high EBITA loss of up to 35 billion Chinese yuan in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 [6][8] - CICC maintained an Outperform rating with a price forecast of $204, despite lowering its profit expectations due to expanded losses in flash purchase services [13]

Core Insights - On October 13, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 22.61 billion, 12.67 billion, and 9.13 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and SMIC (00981) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 9.69 billion, 6.19 billion, and 5.05 billion respectively [1] Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 22.61 billion with a net buy of -2.18 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) recorded a trading amount of 12.67 billion with a net buy of -1.81 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 9.13 billion with a net buy of +0.13 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 9.13 billion with a net buy of -3.31 billion [1] - The Yingfu Fund (02800) saw a trading amount of 5.42 billion with a net buy of +5.21 billion [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a trading amount of 5.17 billion with a net buy of +0.79 billion [1] - Other notable companies included Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), ZTE Corporation (00763), Meituan-W (03690), and Kingsoft Corporation (03888) with varying trading amounts and net buys [1] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 9.69 billion with a net buy of +0.55 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 6.19 billion with a net buy of +0.76 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 5.05 billion with a net buy of +1.29 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 4.47 billion with a net buy of +0.86 billion [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw a trading amount of 3.04 billion with a net buy of +0.56 billion [1] - Other companies such as Yingfu Fund (02800), Meituan-W (03690), ZTE Corporation (00763), WuXi Biologics (02269), and Innovent Biologics (01801) also participated with varying trading amounts and net buys [1]

Core Insights - The report by TrendForce indicates a significant increase in capital expenditure (CapEx) among major cloud service providers (CSPs) driven by the rapid expansion of AI server demand, with a projected total CapEx exceeding $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% year-over-year increase compared to 2023 and 2024 combined [1] - By 2026, the total CapEx for these CSPs is expected to reach over $520 billion, marking a 24% year-over-year growth, as the spending structure shifts towards assets like servers and GPUs to strengthen long-term competitiveness [1] Group 1: CSPs and AI Solutions - The GB200/GB300 Rack is identified as a key AI solution for CSPs, with demand expected to exceed initial forecasts, particularly from North America's top four CSPs and Oracle, as well as companies like Tesla/xAI and Coreweave [2] - CSPs are anticipated to increase their self-developed chip shipments annually, with North American CSPs focusing on AI ASICs to enhance autonomy and cost control in generative AI and large language model computations [2] Group 2: Specific CSP Developments - AWS is set to deploy Trainium v2, with a liquid-cooled version expected by the end of 2025, and Trainium v3 projected to begin mass production in Q1 2026, with a forecasted shipment increase of over 100% in 2025 [3] - Meta is enhancing its collaboration with Broadcom, expecting to mass-produce MTIA v2 by Q4 2025, with significant growth anticipated in shipments [3] - Microsoft plans to produce Maia v2 with GUC's assistance, although its self-developed chip shipments are expected to lag behind competitors in the short term [3] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Tencent's capital expenditure saw a year-over-year increase of 119% in Q2, reaching 19.107 billion RMB, with total investments exceeding 83.1 billion RMB over the last three quarters [3] - Alibaba's capital expenditure reached a record high of 38.6 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a commitment to invest 380 billion RMB over the next three years for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure [4]

Core Insights - The competition among major tech companies in the AI model space is shifting towards open-source strategies, with companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu releasing their models simultaneously, indicating a consensus on the necessity of open-source approaches [1][2][10] - Open-source is no longer an optional strategy but a critical requirement for companies to gain a competitive edge in the evolving market [2][10] - The focus is now on the breadth and depth of ecosystems rather than just the technical superiority of individual models, as companies aim to create comprehensive platforms for developers [11][16] Group 1: Open-Source Strategy - Major companies are increasingly adopting open-source models to leverage collective developer intelligence and enhance model capabilities [1][2][5] - Tencent's recent releases, including the "Hunyuan Image 3.0" model, highlight its strategy to engage external developers and accelerate advancements in complex tasks like 3D modeling [2][3] - Alibaba has released multiple models, including the flagship Qwen3-Max, and has opened over 300 models with significant download numbers, aiming to become the preferred choice for developers [3][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The open-source movement is seen as a response to diverse industry needs, with companies like Baidu optimizing their models for specific applications such as OCR and education [5][10] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies needing to demonstrate not just technical capabilities but also the ability to integrate their models into broader industry applications [11][14] - The shift towards open-source is expected to lower barriers for enterprises, allowing them to adopt advanced AI technologies at a reduced cost [5][10] Group 3: Ecosystem Development - Companies are focusing on building extensive ecosystems around their open-source models, which will drive dependency on their cloud infrastructure and services [7][10] - The competition is not just about releasing models but also about how effectively companies can convert these open-source capabilities into industry applications and developer loyalty [10][16] - Baidu's strategy involves integrating its models with proprietary hardware, enhancing the overall ecosystem and making it more appealing for enterprise clients [13][16]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 198.04 billion HKD from northbound trading on October 13, with 75.98 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 122.06 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The most bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] - The most sold stocks were Tencent (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and SMIC (00981) [1] - Alibaba-W had a buy amount of 102.16 billion HKD and a sell amount of 123.94 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 21.78 billion HKD [2] - SMIC had a buy amount of 54.30 billion HKD and a sell amount of 72.40 billion HKD, leading to a net outflow of 18.10 billion HKD [2] - Tencent had a buy amount of 29.11 billion HKD and a sell amount of 62.19 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 33.08 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The market is experiencing a decline in investor risk appetite due to escalating US-China trade tensions, which has led to a valuation correction in Hong Kong stocks [4] - Despite the current market challenges, there are expectations for stabilization in investor sentiment due to domestic growth-supporting policies and long-term measures to stabilize the stock market [4] - The semiconductor sector is showing divergence, with Hua Hong Semiconductor receiving a net inflow of 13.47 billion HKD, while SMIC faced a net outflow of 5.23 billion HKD [5] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of 8.88 billion HKD despite a nearly 9% drop in its stock price due to safety concerns following a fire incident involving one of its vehicles [5] - Kingsoft (03888) received a net inflow of 2.86 billion HKD amid discussions on export controls related to rare earth materials [5] - Northbound trading sold off tech stocks, with Alibaba-W and Tencent facing significant net outflows of 24.45 billion HKD and 16.23 billion HKD, respectively [6]