Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the gaming sector, highlighting its strong performance compared to other sub-industries within the media and internet sectors [3][5]. Core Insights - The gaming industry is experiencing significant growth, with mobile game market size increasing by 16% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while PC games show a 5% increase [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the high demand for entertainment consumption, particularly in gaming, music, and trendy toys, while long-form video content has reached a low point [3][8]. - Cloud computing and AI applications are accelerating, with notable revenue growth in cloud services, particularly from Alibaba Cloud and Kingsoft Cloud, which reported year-on-year growth of 26% and 24% respectively [3][8]. - The advertising sector shows resilience, particularly in short video platforms and elevator advertising, with initial signs of AI integration [3][8]. - The internet healthcare sector is witnessing an uplift in market conditions, indicating a positive trend [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - The report summarizes the performance of the media and internet sectors, noting the standout performance of the gaming industry [3][4]. 2. Entertainment Consumption - The gaming, music, and trendy toy IPs are thriving, while long-form video content is struggling [3][4]. - The gaming sector's revenue growth is driven by regulatory easing, increased demand from younger users, and innovative overseas strategies [3][14]. 3. Cloud Computing and AI Applications - Cloud services are experiencing accelerated growth, with significant investments from major players like Alibaba and Tencent [3][8]. - AI applications are beginning to monetize effectively, particularly in emotional consumption and productivity tools [3][8]. 4. Advertising - The advertising sector remains robust, with short video platforms and elevator ads showing resilience [3][8]. 5. Internet Healthcare - The report notes an improvement in the internet healthcare sector's market conditions [3][8]. 6. Publishing - The publishing sector is experiencing flat revenue growth, but tax exemptions are helping to restore profit margins [3][8].

Core Insights - The LABUBU secondary market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping sharply from initial highs shortly after new product releases [1][2][9] - The stock price of Pop Mart has declined over 15% since reaching a historical high of 339.8 HKD on August 26, reflecting the negative sentiment in the market [1][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The release of the MINI version LABUBU blind box on August 28 saw initial resale prices soar to over 1800 RMB, but prices quickly fell as supply outpaced demand [2][11] - Consumers are experiencing shorter "window periods" for selling new products, with the resale value dropping significantly within days of release [2][11] - The rapid introduction of new products has disrupted the supply-demand balance, leading to consumer fatigue and a decrease in speculative buying behavior [11][12] Group 2: Seller Experiences - Sellers like Liu Hui have reported significant losses, with some LABUBU items selling for over 30% below their purchase price, leading to total losses exceeding 10,000 RMB [3][5] - The influx of counterfeit products has further complicated the market, causing hesitation among buyers and impacting sales for legitimate sellers [7][12] - Yellow market participants are adjusting their strategies, focusing on high-demand items while avoiding overstocking less popular products [7][12] Group 3: Company Performance - Pop Mart's market capitalization has decreased by approximately 295.45 billion HKD as of September 8, indicating a substantial loss in investor confidence [9][12] - The company's strategy of releasing multiple new products in a short timeframe has been criticized for contributing to market instability and consumer dissatisfaction [11][12] - There are ongoing consumer concerns regarding the company's supply management practices, with accusations of maintaining artificial scarcity while simultaneously attempting to curb scalping [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.01%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.27%, indicating a positive trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Company Performance - Bilibili saw a significant increase, rising over 7% [1] - Three Life Pharmaceutical experienced a decline, falling over 8% [1] - Laopu Gold dropped by more than 7% [1] - Pop Mart fell by over 4% [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,200.26 points, up 1.01% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.27% to 5,902.69 points [1] - The National Enterprises Index increased by 0.93% to 9,328.16 points [1] - The Red Chip Index gained 0.58%, closing at 4,376.55 points [1] Top Gainers - Bilibili-W surged over 7% to a price of 198.000 [2] - Dama Entertainment increased by over 5% to 1.190 [2] - JD Logistics and Lenovo Group both rose over 4%, with JD Logistics at 13.820 [2] - Other notable gainers include Beike-W, Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank, all rising over 3% [1][2] Top Losers - Tianqi Lithium Industries fell by 7.97% to 39.960 [2] - Ganfeng Lithium dropped by 7.08% to 33.880 [2] - Pop Mart decreased by 4.09% to 276.400 [2] - Other significant decliners include Bosideng and Zhou Hei Ya, both down over 2% [1][2]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) opened in Beijing, with Pop Mart participating as the exclusive trendy cultural brand partner, showcasing various popular IP products and interactive experiences [1][2] - Pop Mart created two exhibition areas themed "Cake a wish," featuring a dessert house inspired by its IPs, allowing visitors to enjoy both visual and taste experiences with products like SKULLPANDA ice cream and MOLLY chocolate [2][3] - The company presented its SPACE MOLLY collection and large outdoor art installations, enhancing the aesthetic experience and emotional connection for attendees [3] Group 2 - This year marks Pop Mart's sixth participation in CIFTIS, aiming to showcase the diversity and extensibility of trendy IPs on an international stage, receiving widespread recognition from attendees [4] - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8%, with five major IPs generating over one billion yuan in revenue [4][5] - The company is actively exploring various creative expressions and new business formats centered around IP, with significant growth in international markets, including a tenfold increase in the Americas [5]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart's brand popularity is expected to rebound with the release of the "Labubu and Friends" animation and Labubu 4.0 version, alongside a rise in search interest for "Mini Labubu" since June, now comparable to Skullpanda and Dimoo [1] - The search index for Skullpanda increased by 40% compared to May, anticipating a new plush toy series launch in June, while Crybaby's average search index remained stable from July to August [1] - The interaction volume on Pop Mart's global social media accounts increased by 3% over the past two weeks, leading Morgan Stanley to maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of HKD 400 [1] Group 1 - Mini and large-sized Labubu are hot-selling items, with the "THE MONSTERS Pin For Love" series and "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" series selling out within a minute during their launch on August 28 [2] - The retail price for Mini Labubu is RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, with a secondary market price increase of 45% as of September 5 [2] - The large Labubu is priced at RMB 499 in mainland China and HKD 583 in Hong Kong, with a secondary market price increase of 56% as of September 5 [2] Group 2 - Twinkle Twinkle is identified as a new emerging IP, with expected sales of RMB 389 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than other IPs like Crybaby and Hirono [3] - The "Sweet Dream Forecast" series, priced at RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, is set to launch in August 2025 and has already shown a secondary market premium of 110% in mainland China and 36% overseas as of September 5 [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the brand popularity of Pop Mart (09992) is expected to rebound due to the launch of the "Labubu and Friends" animation and Labubu 4.0 version, with search interest for "Mini Labubu" rising since June, now comparable to Skullpanda and Dimoo [1] - The search index for Skullpanda increased by 40% compared to May, anticipating the release of a new plush toy series in June, while Crybaby's average search index remained stable from July to August [1] - The global social media engagement for Pop Mart's official accounts rose by 3% over the past two weeks, leading Morgan Stanley to maintain an "overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 400 for Pop Mart [1] Group 2 - Mini and large-sized Labubu are identified as hot-selling items, with the "THE MONSTERS Pin For Love" series (mini version) and "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" series (40 cm version) selling out within one minute during their launch on August 28 [2] - The pricing for Mini Labubu is set at RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, with secondary market prices showing a 45% increase as of September 5, while the large Labubu is priced at RMB 499 and HKD 583, with a 56% increase in secondary market prices [2] Group 3 - Twinkle Twinkle is recognized as an emerging IP, with Pop Mart planning to launch it in August 2024, projecting sales of RMB 389 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than other IPs like Crybaby and Hirono [3] - The "Sweet Dream Forecast" series, priced at RMB 79 and HKD 95, is set to launch in mid-August 2025 and is expected to sell out quickly, with secondary market prices showing a premium of 110% in mainland China and 36% overseas as of September 5 [3]

面对市场巨变，玩家群体呈现分化态势。广州收藏者阿杰认为："迷你LABUBU本质是大众消费品，官方持续补货导致稀缺性消 失，价格回归理性是必然。"在社交平台，玩家自发组织的"互换活动"日益活跃，某小红书帖子下的评论区已演变为虚拟交换市 场。有玩家表示："14款不同造型的套装，没必要为收集全套支付溢价，互换才是理性选择。" 对于价格波动，泡泡玛特官方尚未作出正式回应。但据接近企业的消息人士透露，公司正在调整生产策略，未来可能通过控制 产量和丰富产品线来稳定市场。业内专家指出，潮玩市场需要建立更健康的消费生态，过度依赖稀缺性营销的模式难以持续。 但市场热度持续不到三个月便急转直下。截至9月8日，得物平台最新交易数据显示，LABUBU迷你系列整盒价格已回落至1446 元，较峰值下跌55%。隐藏款"爱心"从近千元跌至595元，跌幅达40.5%。北京玩家小林向记者透露："发售当晚我转手两整盒赚 了5600元，现在同样规格的套装在二手平台挂1500元都无人问津。" 价格崩盘直接导致黄牛群体撤离。多位从业者表示，目前已暂停收购LABUBU系列产品。"市场上突然涌现大量货源，但买家都 在持币观望。"从事潮玩交易三年的黄牛老张透 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading prices of Labubu products in the second-hand market are experiencing significant fluctuations, with a general downward trend in average transaction prices and a higher number of bearish sentiments among traders [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The average transaction price for Labubu products has decreased, with a notable drop of ¥3 from the previous week, currently standing at ¥105 [3]. - The "hidden" version of the Labubu product, known as "Ben Wo," which was once priced at nearly ¥5000 in the secondary market, has seen its price fall to the range of ¥700-800, indicating a clear downward trend over the past 30 days [6]. - The "mini version Labubu," launched on August 28, 2025, has also seen a decline in average transaction prices, now ranging from ¥80-650, down from previous high premiums [13]. Group 2: Company Actions - In response to high premiums in the secondary market, the company executed a large-scale restock on June 18, 2025, with an estimated total replenishment of 4-5 million units across various platforms, leading to a significant drop in secondary market prices [15]. - Following the restock, the prices for complete sets of Labubu blind boxes plummeted from ¥1500-2800 to ¥650-800, with some individual hidden versions dropping from ¥250 to ¥100 [16]. - The company's stock price has been on a continuous rise this year, reaching a market capitalization of approximately HKD 370 billion, although it has recently experienced a decline, falling below HKD 300 to HKD 270 [16].

该行看好泡泡玛特，因1)发掘及变现IP能力强；2)IP组合多元(预计2027年Labubu占集团销售31%)；3)国 际化(预计2027年海外销售占比61%)，泡泡玛特仍是中国消费板块首选，维持"增持"评级及目标价400港 元。 摩根大通发表报告，从泡泡玛特双周品牌热度分析显示：1)Labubu现时搜索热度只有7月高峰的60%， 预期随着Labubu与朋友动画及Labubu4.0版本推出，未来搜索热度将回升。(2)6月起Mini Labubu搜索热 度上升，现时与Skullpanda及Dimoo相当。3)Skullpanda过去两周搜索指数回落25%，但仍较5月高40%， 因预计6月有新毛绒玩具系列推出。4)Crybaby的8月平均搜索指数与7月持平。5)泡泡玛特全球社交平台 官方账户互动量过去两周升3%(尤其TikTok与X，对比上次追踪期升2%)。 该行强调，搜索热度下跌并不等于产品生命周期终结。当超级IP变得广为人知，忠实消费者会直接浏览 公司网页、会员计划、大型平台的在线旗舰店等，而非依赖Google或百度搜索。历史数据显示，知名IP 的搜寻热度最终会回落至高峰的15%至20%，但销售增长仍可保持强劲 ...