Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,523.97, down by 20.88 points or 0.08% as of September 18, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,568.27 and a low of 26,422.86 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 74.7354 million [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 108.106, up by 0.85% compared to the Hong Kong closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 642.805, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% from the Hong Kong closing price [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings saw a decrease of HKD 19.500, or 2.95%, with an ADR price of 642.805 [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) decreased by HKD 3.200, or 1.98%, with an ADR price of 157.960 [3] - HSBC Holdings increased by HKD 0.600, or 0.56%, with an ADR price of 108.106 [3] - China Construction Bank decreased by HKD 0.190, or 2.42%, with an ADR price of 7.641 [3] - AIA Group saw a decline of HKD 1.300, or 1.74%, with an ADR price of 73.536 [3] - NetEase experienced a drop of HKD 6.000, or 2.44%, with an ADR price of 237.834 [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by HKD 14.000, or 3.06%, with an ADR price of 446.269 [3] - Ping An Insurance decreased by HKD 1.500, or 2.69%, with an ADR price of 54.170 [3] - JD.com saw a decline of HKD 2.400, or 1.76%, with an ADR price of 137.583 [3] - Kuaishou Technology dropped by HKD 1.850, or 2.37%, with an ADR price of 72.913 [3]

Core Insights - On September 18, Hong Kong Broadband made its first appearance on the active trading list of Hong Kong Stock Connect in nearly a month [2] - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 763.71 billion, accounting for 36.27% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of HKD 33.31 billion [2] Trading Activity Summary - The top traded stock was Alibaba-W with a trading volume of HKD 210.72 billion, followed by SMIC and Tencent Holdings with trading volumes of HKD 140.50 billion and HKD 91.65 billion, respectively [2] - Over the past month, Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings were the most frequently listed stocks, appearing 23 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [2] Hong Kong Broadband Performance - On the day of its first listing, Hong Kong Broadband had a trading volume of HKD 26.49 billion and a net buying amount of HKD 4.28 billion, with its stock price increasing by 68.55% [2]

Market Overview - On September 18, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.35%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 210.55 billion, comprising HKD 108.42 billion in buying and HKD 102.13 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 6.28 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - Southbound trading through the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a total trading amount of HKD 76.78 billion, with buying at HKD 40.58 billion and selling at HKD 36.20 billion, leading to a net buying of HKD 4.38 billion [1] - The Shanghai Stock Connect recorded a total trading amount of HKD 133.77 billion, with buying at HKD 67.84 billion and selling at HKD 65.93 billion, resulting in a net buying of HKD 1.84 billion [1] Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock by southbound funds was Alibaba-W, with a total trading amount of HKD 210.72 billion, followed by SMIC and Tencent Holdings with HKD 140.50 billion and HKD 91.65 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net buying, Meituan-W led with a net buying amount of HKD 14.12 billion, followed by Alibaba-W with HKD 12.10 billion and Pop Mart with HKD 12.07 billion [1] - The stock with the highest net selling was Hua Hong Semiconductor, with a net selling amount of HKD 11.65 billion, while Tencent Holdings and SMIC had net selling amounts of HKD 4.18 billion and HKD 2.77 billion respectively [1] Continuous Net Buying - Two stocks, Alibaba-W and Meituan-W, have seen continuous net buying for over three days, with Alibaba-W having a total net buying of HKD 561.01 billion over 20 days and Meituan-W with HKD 49.01 billion over 4 days [2]

Core Insights - COMEX gold futures prices have surged, reaching over $3700 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase in one month and close to 40% year-to-date [2] - The rising gold prices have prompted both trendy companies and traditional gold shops to expand their presence in the gold jewelry market, with notable interest from luxury brands [2][12] Group 1: Market Trends - The launch of the "Baby Molly·Foot Gold" series by Pop Mart's jewelry brand popop features products priced from 980 yuan to 56,800 yuan, utilizing "hard gold + ancient methods + enamel" craftsmanship [4][5] - The average price per gram for the new gold products ranges from 1300 to 1800 yuan, which is lower than previous collaborations, indicating a strategic pricing approach [5] - The popularity of gold jewelry among younger consumers is evident, with significant foot traffic and sales growth reported in popop's stores following the launch [10] Group 2: Company Strategies - Pop Mart's founder emphasized the importance of diversifying product categories, with jewelry being a key area of exploration for the company [8] - The brand's strategy includes leveraging its IP to create unique gold jewelry designs, distinguishing itself from traditional gold shops [10] - Old Fengxiang Co., Ltd. is investing 50 million yuan to establish a luxury goods sales company, aiming to enhance brand image and tap into the mid-to-high-end market [11] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - LVMH's CEO was spotted visiting a traditional gold shop, highlighting the growing interest of international luxury brands in the Chinese gold market [12] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that rising gold prices have outpaced income growth, potentially affecting consumer purchasing behavior [11] - The increasing interest in local brands among Chinese consumers is noted, with some domestic jewelry companies experiencing explosive demand [12][13]

Core Insights - On September 18, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 13.163 billion, 9.044 billion, and 5.634 billion respectively [1][2] - Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also led the trading volume in the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 7.909 billion, 5.005 billion, and 3.531 billion respectively [1][2] Southbound Trading Highlights - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 13.163 billion, net buying of 0.315 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 9.044 billion, net selling of 0.395 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 5.634 billion, net selling of 0.940 billion [2] - Meituan-W (03690): Trading amount of 4.440 billion, net buying of 0.568 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 3.518 billion, net buying of 0.280 billion [2] - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 7.909 billion, net buying of 0.895 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 5.005 billion, net buying of 0.117 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 3.531 billion, net buying of 0.522 billion [2] - Meituan-W (03690): Trading amount of 2.495 billion, net buying of 0.844 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 2.236 billion, net buying of 0.381 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds saw significant inflow today, with a total transaction amount of approximately 210.55 billion HKD, marking an increase of nearly 32 billion HKD compared to the previous day, representing about 50.94% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index [2] Southbound Fund Flow - The net inflow of southbound funds today was approximately 6.288 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing about 1.907 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing about 4.382 billion HKD [2][4] - Major net inflows included Meituan-W (14.12 billion HKD), Alibaba-W (12.1 billion HKD), Pop Mart (12.07 billion HKD), and Xiaomi Group-W (6.61 billion HKD) [2] - Significant net outflows were observed in Hua Hong Semiconductor (11.65 billion HKD), Tencent Holdings (4.18 billion HKD), and SMIC (2.77 billion HKD) [2] Stock Performance - Meituan-W increased by 0.29%, but short-term funds have been predominantly flowing out, with a reduction of 1.237 million shares over the past five days [3] - Alibaba-W decreased by 1.98%, with short-term funds continuing to flow in, accumulating 12 million shares over the past five days [3] - Pop Mart rose by 4.62%, yet short-term funds continued to show a trend of outflow, with a reduction of 397,000 shares over the past five days [3] - Xiaomi Group-W fell by 1.73%, with a continued outflow trend, reducing 2.099 million shares over the past five days [3] - Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by 8.62%, with an unclear short-term fund trend, having accumulated 1.069 million shares over the past five days [3] - Tencent Holdings decreased by 2.95%, with an unclear short-term fund trend, reducing 820,000 shares over the past five days [3] - SMIC rose by 2.66%, with short-term funds predominantly flowing in, accumulating 2.057 million shares over the past five days [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the business models of two companies, Moutai and Pop Mart, comparing their profitability and sustainability, ultimately suggesting that both have strong business models but differ in market dynamics and future potential [2][3][8]. Profitability Metrics - Moutai has a gross margin of 90% and a net margin of 50%, making it one of the best globally [3]. - Pop Mart has a gross margin of 70% and a net margin of 35%, ranking among the top five but not surpassing Moutai [3]. Sustainability of Business Models - The white liquor market is expected to face a decline in consumer demographics, which poses challenges for Moutai in maintaining or increasing market share [5]. - Pop Mart has the potential for better sustainability due to its broader market appeal and the ability to tap into international markets, particularly the U.S. [6][7]. Market Opportunities - Pop Mart's IP, labubu, is considered significantly undervalued, with the potential to contribute substantial value alongside a matrix of top-tier IPs [6]. - The U.S. market is viewed as a major opportunity, with potential revenues estimated to be 2-3 times that of the domestic market, given the higher average revenue per store [6]. Management Quality - Moutai's management is seen as competent but not as strong as that of leading global companies like Apple [10]. - Pop Mart's management is viewed favorably, with aspirations to reach the level of Apple in the future [11]. Valuation Comparison - Current static PE ratios are approximately 25 for Pop Mart and 20 for Moutai, indicating they are in a similar valuation range [11]. - Both companies are expected to show stable performance in the short term, with earnings serving as a lower bound for future performance [11]. Revenue Growth Potential - Pop Mart is projected to reach 50 billion in revenue, with a trajectory towards 100 billion, indicating strong growth potential [12].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Pop Mart (09992) will experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm expects sales for Pop Mart in Q3 to grow over 180% year-on-year, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected P/E ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report addresses investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the IP collectibles market is substantial and continues to grow, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model poised to capture the increasing "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart (09992) is expected to experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm anticipates that Pop Mart's sales will grow over 180% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report counters investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the market for IP collectibles is substantial and continues to grow, with confidence in Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages to capture the rising "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices rose to $3702.8 per ounce on September 17, marking a nearly 10% increase from $3378 per ounce on August 18 [1] - Popop, a jewelry brand under Bubble Mart, launched its first solid gold series featuring products like gold beads, pendants, gold bars, and ornaments [1] - Within three days of launch, foot traffic in two Popop stores significantly increased, leading to a noticeable rise in sales [1] Group 2 - The new solid gold series is not a limited edition, with prices ranging from 1300 to 1700 RMB per gram, indicating a premium over market prices [5] - Unlike traditional gold brands that use a "gold price + processing fee" pricing strategy, Popop employs a fixed price model for its products [5] - The demand for emotional value from consumers has contributed to the rising popularity of Bubble Mart's IP, reflected in the company's performance [5] Group 3 - Bubble Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [5] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 4.71 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 362.8% [5] - The company's revenue surpassed 10 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with net profit exceeding the total for the entire year of 2024 [5]