Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - Emotional consumption and the rise of the "Guzi economy" are driving the growth of the trendy toy market, with the Z generation leading a new landscape. By 2024, the population of the pan-2D community in China is expected to exceed 500 million, with a market size of approximately 600 billion yuan, and the Guzi economy alone surpassing 150 billion yuan [1][24] - The trendy toy industry is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" pattern, with Pop Mart leading the industry, while foreign brands like LEGO and Bandai hold a certain market share. Domestic brands such as Blok and Card Game are also experiencing rapid growth, with IP operation and overseas market expansion being key future directions for the industry [1][4] Summary by Sections 1. Emotional Consumption and the Rise of Trendy Toys - Emotional consumption has emerged as a new economic driver, with trendy toys becoming a significant social label for consumers. These toys provide emotional value, helping to alleviate anxiety and affirm consumer identity [22][23] - The Guzi economy, which focuses on IP-derived peripheral products, is deeply integrated with 2D culture, creating a vibrant narrative and emotional connection for consumers [23][24] - The market for trendy toys is expected to grow significantly, with the pan-entertainment toy market projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2029, and the trendy toy market reaching 110 billion yuan by 2027 [1][36] 2. Growth Drivers: Blind Boxes, Building Toys, and Card Games - Blind boxes are driven by the thrill of the unknown, with a market size expected to reach 580 billion yuan by 2025. The consumer base is predominantly female, with 75% of buyers being women, and the Z generation pushing for a shift towards mid-to-high-end products [2][67] - Building toys are designed for all age groups, with a market size projected to reach 640 billion yuan by 2028. Local brand Blok leads this segment, focusing on educational aspects [2][3] - The card game market, driven by rarity and low pricing, is expected to reach 446 billion yuan by 2029, with Card Game holding a dominant position [2][3] 3. Competitive Landscape and Key Players - Leading companies such as Pop Mart, Blok, and Card Game are driving industry development through differentiated competition. Pop Mart focuses on IP incubation and blind box mechanisms, while Blok emphasizes educational scenarios through building blocks [4][5] - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with Pop Mart holding a 28% market share in the blind box segment. The CR5 of the blind box market is expected to rise from 38% in 2020 to 50% in 2024 [76] 4. International Expansion and Lessons from Overseas - The report highlights the importance of IP-driven multi-business ecosystems, as seen in successful overseas companies like Disney and Bandai. These companies leverage their IP across various platforms, creating a robust business model [4][56] - Chinese toy companies are actively expanding into international markets, with significant growth in exports to the US and Central Asia. This diversification is crucial for mitigating risks associated with reliance on single markets [56][57]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of new products by Pop Mart, including the "Star People Good Dream Meteorological Bureau" and "MOKOKO Sunbathing Summer" series, has led to significant price speculation on secondary markets, with some items being listed at four times their original price, raising concerns about potential market bubbles [1][2][5]. Pricing Dynamics - The MOKOKO plush hanging ornament originally priced at 199 yuan is being resold for over 800 yuan, while the Star People plush blind box, originally priced at 474 yuan for six, is being marked up significantly, with individual prices ranging from dozens to hundreds of yuan [2][5]. - Historical data shows that the LABUBU series experienced a price drop of 60% due to restocking, indicating that similar trends could occur with the new series if market hype diminishes or supply increases [5][6]. Market Behavior - The surge in prices is attributed to speculative behavior by resellers, often referred to as "scalpers," who drive initial prices up, creating a bubble that may eventually burst as the market corrects itself [5][6]. - The marketing strategies employed by Pop Mart, such as limited releases and hidden variants, create a sense of scarcity that fuels consumer demand and speculation [6][9]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumer attitudes towards purchasing these collectibles are polarized, with some viewing Pop Mart as a long-term investment akin to "Moutai for the '00s," while others criticize the inflated prices and the role of scalpers in the market [7][9]. - Motivations for buying include the thrill of collecting, the potential for profit through resale, and the desire to showcase rare items on social media as a form of social capital [9].

Group 1 - The core announcement from Pop Mart is the launch of the mini version of Labubu, consisting of two models (A/B), each with 14 regular versions and 1 hidden version, with probabilities of 1:14 for regular and 1:168 for hidden [2] - The price for a single blind box is set at 79 yuan, while the complete set is priced at 1106 yuan, with online sales starting on August 28 and offline on August 29 [2] - Following the announcement, Pop Mart's market capitalization reached 430 billion HKD, and the latest financial report indicates a gross margin of 70.3% for the first half of 2025, surpassing LVMH and nearing Hermès [2] Group 2 - The revenue from the THE MONSTERS series, which includes Labubu, surged by 668%, establishing it as a significant revenue generator for the company [2] - The success of Labubu is attributed to a seven-year buildup before gaining widespread popularity [2] - In contrast, celebrity-driven IPs have shown quicker success, with examples like Zhou Shen's "Zhou Keke" selling over 10 million in five minutes, and Jay Chou's "Zhou Classmate" generating over 1 billion from IP licensing alone [4] Group 3 - The potential risks associated with celebrity IPs include their dependency on the celebrity's reputation, which can lead to a total loss of value if the celebrity faces controversies [4] - Despite the risks, the profitability of celebrity IPs has attracted significant interest, prompting companies to consider replicating the success of Labubu [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing optimistic growth prospects due to successful overseas expansion and the emergence of new IPs [11]. Core Insights - The company reported profits exceeding expectations for the first half of 2025, with significant growth anticipated in key markets, particularly in the Americas, where new IPs are expected to gain consumer favor [2]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 138.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, while net profit was 46.8 billion RMB, up 385.6% [11]. - The IP matrix has formed a "one strong, many strong" pattern, with five major IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in revenue, indicating robust growth potential in overseas markets [4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue to grow from 6,345 million RMB in 2023 to 68,713 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.4% [5]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 1,082 million RMB in 2023 to 23,843 million RMB in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 127.5% in 2024 [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 61.32% in 2023 to 76% by 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a current market capitalization of 430,279 million HKD, with a 52-week price range of 45.35 to 320.40 HKD [8]. - The report highlights that the Americas market has seen a revenue increase of over 11 times year-on-year, with expectations for continued high growth [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth momentum and potential for continued performance improvement in the future [1][2][6] Domestic Performance - In H1 2025, domestic revenue reached 82.8 billion yuan, up 135.2% year-on-year, with offline channel revenue at 50.8 billion yuan (+117.1%) and online channel revenue at 29.4 billion yuan (+212.2%) [2] - The company opened 12 new retail stores, bringing the total to 443, achieving a record high in average store efficiency [2] - Membership numbers increased by 28% to 59.12 million, with a rise in per capita spending [2] - The pre-sale model initiated in June contributed to contract liabilities of 850 million yuan, more than tripling year-on-year, which is expected to boost performance in the second half of the year [2] International Performance - In H1 2025, overseas revenue reached 55.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 314%, with significant growth across regions [3] - Asia-Pacific revenue was 28.5 billion yuan (+258%), the Americas saw revenue of 22.7 billion yuan (+1142%), and Europe and others generated 4.8 billion yuan (+729%) [3] - The company opened 30 new stores in Asia-Pacific, 31 in the Americas, and 9 in Europe, indicating ongoing expansion efforts [3] - The online growth rate significantly outpaced offline, suggesting unmet demand and further expansion opportunities in various regions [3] Product Perspective - The IP matrix showed comprehensive growth, with the core character Labubu generating 48.1 billion yuan in revenue, a 668% increase [4] - Other IPs also performed well, with new IP CRYBABY generating 12.2 billion yuan (+249%) and classic IPs like MOLLY and SKULLPANDA maintaining growth [4] - The company’s ability to operate and develop IP effectively provides a strong competitive advantage [4] Category Performance - Revenue from plush toys, figures, MEGA, and derivatives reached 61.4 billion yuan, 51.8 billion yuan, 10.1 billion yuan, and 15.5 billion yuan respectively, with plush toys seeing a remarkable growth of 1276% [5] - The company’s supply chain capabilities have improved significantly, allowing for better alignment with high growth demand [5] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 70.3%, up 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 33.0%, the highest in history [5] Future Growth Potential - The upcoming Mini Labubu product is expected to expand into new usage scenarios, potentially becoming a best-seller [6] - Continued rapid store openings in the overseas market and gradual expansion into the Middle East and South America are anticipated [6] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in the second half of the year, supported by new product categories and business models [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in its 2025 H1 financial results, with revenue reaching 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204%, and adjusted net profit soaring by 363% to 4.71 billion yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 H1 was 13.88 billion yuan, up 204% year-on-year - Gross margin stood at 70.3%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year - Adjusted net profit reached 4.71 billion yuan, reflecting a 363% increase year-on-year [1] Regional Growth - Domestic sales reached approximately 8.3 billion yuan, a 135% increase year-on-year - Asia-Pacific revenue was nearly 2.9 billion yuan, up 258% year-on-year - Americas revenue was about 2.3 billion yuan, showing a staggering 1142% increase year-on-year - Europe and other regions generated 480 million yuan, a 729% increase year-on-year [1] IP Performance - In 2025 H1, 13 artist IPs generated over 100 million yuan in revenue, with 5 exceeding 1 billion yuan - Notable IP revenues included THEMONSTERS at 4.8 billion yuan (+668%), MOLLY at 1.4 billion yuan (+74%), and others showing significant growth [1] Product Performance - Plush products became a phenomenon, generating 6.1 billion yuan in revenue, a 1276% increase, accounting for 44% of total revenue - Figures for other product categories included figurines at 5.2 billion yuan (+95%), MEGA at 1 billion yuan (+72%), and derivatives at 1.6 billion yuan (+79%) [2] Profitability Drivers - The increase in gross margin to 70.3% was attributed to a higher proportion of overseas sales, optimized product design, and improved cost control - The company expects continued growth in adjusted net profit, forecasting 11.2 billion yuan for 2025, 16.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 20.7 billion yuan for 2027 [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for 1H25, representing a year-over-year increase of 204.4% with a gross profit of 9.76 billion RMB and a gross margin of 70.3%, up 6.3 percentage points year-over-year [1] - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 reached 4.71 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 362.8% and a net profit margin of 33.9% [1] - The company projects a minimum revenue of 30 billion RMB for the year 2025, with an expected adjusted net profit margin of around 35% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue in China was 8.28 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 135.2%, accounting for 59.7% of total revenue [1] - Offline channel revenue was 5.08 billion RMB, up 117.1%, with retail store revenue at 4.41 billion RMB, increasing by 119.9% [2] - Online channel revenue reached 2.94 billion RMB, growing by 212.2%, with significant contributions from various platforms [2] - Revenue from the Asia-Pacific region was 2.85 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 257.8% [2] - Offline channel revenue was 1.53 billion RMB, up 203.5%, while online channel revenue surged to 1.07 billion RMB, increasing by 546.7% [2] - Revenue from the Americas was 2.27 billion RMB, showing a remarkable year-over-year growth of 1142.3% [3] - Offline channel revenue was 840 million RMB, up 744.3%, and online channel revenue reached 1.33 billion RMB, increasing by 1977.4% [3] - Revenue from Europe and other regions was 480 million RMB, a year-over-year increase of 729.2% [3] IP and Product Categories - In 1H25, five IPs generated over 1 billion RMB in revenue, including THE MONSTERS, MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, DIMOO, and CRYBABY, with THE MONSTERS accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [3] - Plush toys became the largest product category, increasing from less than 10% in 24H1 to 44% [3] Operational Efficiency - The gross margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3%, driven by higher pricing of overseas products and a reduction in the proportion of externally sourced goods [4] - The sales and management expense ratios decreased by 6.7 percentage points and 4.0 percentage points, respectively, to 23.0% and 5.6% [4] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading IP operation platform with a global presence and a robust IP matrix, creating competitive barriers [4] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 11.1 billion RMB, 17 billion RMB, and 21.2 billion RMB, reflecting increases of 70%, 77%, and 72% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in its global strategy, achieving a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of 4.57 billion yuan, up 396.5% [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross profit margin reached 70.3%, an increase of 6.3%, driven by a higher proportion of overseas business and improved supply chain efficiency [2] - The net profit margin improved to 33.0%, up 12.8 percentage points, with adjusted net profit margin at 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points [2] IP Development - The company has successfully diversified its IP operations, with 13 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in sales, and 5 IPs exceeding 1 billion yuan [2] - The top IP, THE MONSTERS (LABUBU), contributed 4.81 billion yuan in H1 2025, a staggering increase of 668% [2] Global Expansion - The company's revenue from overseas markets reached 5.59 billion yuan, a 440% increase, accounting for 40.3% of total revenue [2] - The company plans to enter the South American and Middle Eastern markets by 2025, with expectations for further revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions [2]

Industry Trends - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is transitioning from "generic" to "innovation," with the proportion of FIC drugs increasing from 9% to 31% over the past decade, driven by policy reforms and increased R&D investment[2] - In the first half of 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, indicating significant industry resilience despite a slowdown in growth[10] - The global e-commerce sales are projected to reach $6.8 trillion by 2025, with Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms rapidly expanding through innovative models[10] Market Opportunities - The Indonesian government has established a "negative investment list" that outlines sectors where foreign investment is restricted, including drugs, gambling, and high-risk mining activities, emphasizing the need for compliance with local regulations[2] - The Chinese hydrogen energy sector is accelerating its internationalization, with 44 overseas projects initiated this year, focusing on equipment exports and technology licensing[4] - The Chinese IP toy market is expected to grow significantly, with the market share of leading companies only at 20.8%, indicating opportunities for new entrants[8] Brand Dynamics - XGIMI Technology plans to issue H-shares for its Hong Kong listing, with overseas revenue increasing to 31.9%, highlighting the importance of global strategy amid domestic market challenges[12] - Luckin Coffee has entered the North American market with a competitive strategy against Starbucks, utilizing a digital operation model and aggressive pricing to attract consumers[12] - JD.com aims to acquire European electronics leader Ceconomy for €2.2 billion, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy[13]

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has recently secured investment from Temasek, achieving a post-investment valuation of approximately HKD 10 billion [3][4] - The investment reflects Temasek's confidence in the emotional value encapsulated in products targeting Generation Z, positioning TOP TOY as a key player in the Asian Z-generation consumer market [10][12] Company Overview - TOP TOY was launched in 2020, initially testing the "global潮玩集合平台" concept with a single store, and has since expanded to over 280 stores across more than 80 cities in China, with plans for international expansion [4][5] - The brand offers a wide range of products, including blind boxes, figurines, and collaborations with over 200 international IPs, appealing to consumers aged 10 to 40 [4][5] Investment Details - Temasek's investment is seen as a strategic move to capitalize on the growing潮玩 market, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the market is experiencing a compound annual growth rate of over 40% [11][12] - The investment is also viewed as a potential precursor to TOP TOY's separate IPO, with Miniso exploring the possibility of spinning off the潮玩 business to optimize shareholder value [6][7] Market Dynamics - The潮玩 industry is characterized by high emotional value, with products serving as "emotional factories" that transform abstract feelings into tangible assets [16][20] - The business model leverages psychological triggers and social media to drive impulse purchases, creating a cycle of consumption that resonates with younger consumers [17][18] Strategic Positioning - Temasek's investment aligns with its focus on long-term trends, particularly in the context of the Asian Z-generation cultural consumption, which is one of the fastest-growing segments [13][14] - The partnership is expected to enhance TOP TOY's operational efficiency and market reach, leveraging Temasek's resources and connections in Southeast Asia [12][14]