I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09992 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 500, ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox," as the rapid expansion of production capacity is transforming the once-scarce Labubu IP into a mass consumer product, which will diminish its fashion appeal and secondary market prices [1][2]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Pop Mart's production capacity has surged from an average of 10 million units per month in the first half of the year to 50 million units per month by the end of the year [1]. - This aggressive capacity expansion is seen as a risky gamble, trading scarcity for short-term revenue growth [1]. Financial Projections - Deutsche Bank estimates that this strategy will yield an adjusted net profit of approximately RMB 14.5 billion in 2025 [2]. - The bank maintains a "Hold" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 228, based on a projected P/E ratio of 18x to 20x for 2025 [1][11]. Market Sentiment and Pricing Trends - Since August 2025, the premium prices for Labubu and other popular IPs have significantly declined, with some hidden variants losing over 50% of their peak value [5]. - The secondary market has shown alarming signs, with regular versions of Labubu dropping below official retail prices on platforms like "Qian Dao" and "Xian Yu" [5]. Consumer Behavior and Product Reception - The popularity of Labubu has shifted from a "must-have" to a readily available product, leading to a decrease in consumer interest and a drop in search trends on Google since mid-2025 [7]. - Recent product launches, such as "Labubu Mini" and "The Monsters 1 a.m.," have not sold out as quickly as previous releases, indicating potential consumer fatigue [10]. Valuation Scenarios - Deutsche Bank presents two contrasting valuation scenarios for Pop Mart: - Bear Case: If Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new IPs, net profit could drop to RMB 10.6 billion, leading to a P/E ratio of 23x [11]. - Bull Case: If growth continues and new IPs emerge, net profit could exceed RMB 23.1 billion, resulting in a P/E ratio of 13x [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights the focus on opportunities in the segmented development of the Chinese consumer sector, with expectations of recovery driven by relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] Group 1: Consumer Sector Outlook - The outlook for the Chinese consumer sector emphasizes the recovery of high-end consumption, supported by favorable monetary policies and market conditions [1] - Credit Lyonnais predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, allowing companies to capture opportunities in market segmentation and global expansion [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - The report identifies three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] - The firm also suggests monitoring the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) [1] Group 3: Industry-Specific Predictions - Credit Lyonnais forecasts a 3% to 4% year-on-year growth in China's sportswear retail sales for the coming year, attributing this to major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth in the next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelers' sales are still anticipated to be affected [1] - In the collectible toy segment, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP developments beyond Labubu [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese consumer sector is expected to focus on opportunities in niche markets and high-end consumption, benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] - The report predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, with companies poised to capture opportunities in market scaling, globalization, and the recovery of high-end consumption [1] - The report highlights three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] Group 2 - The forecast for China's sports apparel retail sales is a year-on-year growth of 3% to 4% for next year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while product price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelry sales volume is still expected to be affected [1] Group 3 - In the collectible toy sector, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP development beyond Labubu [1] - Investors are also advised to pay attention to the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (01880) [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese gift industry is undergoing a paradigm shift driven by the Z generation's purchasing decisions, with digital procurement penetration exceeding 11.5% and emotional value premium rising by 16% annually [2][3][11] Industry Trends - The industry has transitioned from a phase of scale growth to a critical period of "value reconstruction" and "efficiency revolution" [2] - The confidence index for the gift industry in 2025 has increased by 9 points year-on-year, reaching 80, indicating a positive outlook [2] - There is a significant divergence in confidence among different segments, with cross-category and brand channel merchants scoring 86, while processing and OEM factories score only 75 [2] Key Contradictions - Demand upgrade vs. budget contraction: Z generation employees demand personalized and high-quality gifts, while corporate welfare budgets are shrinking [2] - Digital efficiency vs. compliance risk: 48% of companies are increasing digital procurement investments, but this leads to heightened compliance and risk management challenges [2] - Homogeneous competition vs. differentiated breakthroughs: Standard products face declining profit margins, while demand for cultural and health-related gifts is growing [2] Strategic Responses - Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement: 46% of companies prioritize improving quality-price ratios, leveraging digital tools to streamline procurement processes [2][4] - Compliance risk management: 35% of companies focus on compliance management, with third-party inspection mechanisms becoming more prevalent [2][4] Market Dynamics - The procurement landscape is becoming younger, with 90% of decision-makers being under 34 years old, leading to a shift in purchasing logic [3][11] - Small and medium-sized private enterprises account for over 70% of the market share, indicating a shift in purchasing power [3] Product and Service Innovations - The gift industry is moving towards professional competition, with a focus on emotional value and brand expression [11] - Successful case studies highlight the importance of integrating cultural elements and innovative marketing strategies to enhance product appeal [7][10] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue evolving towards high-quality development, with a focus on emotional value and compliance-driven procurement practices [11] - Companies that can adapt to changing consumer demands, embrace digital transformation, and maintain compliance will emerge as industry leaders [11]

Core Insights - The opening of the first store of Fei Dazhu Chili Stir-Fry in Nanjing on November 15 attracted massive crowds, leading to what has been termed a "phenomenal queue" [2] - Nanjing has become a focal point for the "first store" economy, with policies introduced in 2022 to promote this trend, resulting in the introduction of 276 first stores in the past seven months, averaging about 40 new stores per month [3][4] - The city has been recognized as a pilot city for new consumption models, receiving financial support from the central government due to its strong consumer base and innovative development [3] First Store Economy - The first store phenomenon is reshaping the commercial landscape in Nanjing, with a significant increase in foot traffic and consumer engagement [3][4] - The restaurant sector leads the first store introduction, accounting for 44.73% of new stores, while retail follows closely at 43.96%, together contributing to 88.7% of the market share [6] - The introduction of first stores has been linked to increased sales and customer flow in surrounding businesses, with some restaurants experiencing wait times of up to an hour [5][6] Cultural and Historical Integration - Historical districts like Mendo and Xinanli are becoming experimental grounds for first stores, blending cultural heritage with modern retail experiences [8][9] - The MINISO FRIENDS store in Mendo has attracted a young audience, showcasing a mix of cultural and creative products [7][8] - The integration of first stores into historical areas has revitalized these spaces, creating unique consumer experiences that combine shopping with cultural engagement [9][10] Innovation and Consumer Experience - The concept of "micro-innovation" is emphasized as a key driver for the success of first stores, allowing brands to differentiate themselves while minimizing risks [13][14] - Brands like Ma Wuwang are leveraging innovative strategies, including seasonal product iterations and collaborations with popular IPs, to maintain consumer interest and drive repeat purchases [15][16] - The focus on creating immersive and engaging shopping experiences is evident in the design and operation of new stores, which aim to enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty [12][19] Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Nanjing has attracted over 1,500 first stores, including global and Asian firsts, positioning itself as a leader in the first store economy [16][18] - The city's commercial landscape is evolving, with a mix of high-end and innovative retail options catering to diverse consumer preferences [16][18] - Upcoming projects, such as the Jinling Changlefang, aim to further enhance the cultural and commercial offerings in Nanjing, indicating a continued focus on integrating new retail concepts with local heritage [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pop Mart (09992) maintains a "buy" rating due to its rich IP matrix and mature operational capabilities, which continue to activate overseas markets and expand offline channels, leading to sales surges during holiday seasons [1][2] - The company has successfully expanded its global presence, with a total of 171 overseas retail stores as of October 30, including 62 in North America, 28 in Europe, and 44 in Southeast Asia, indicating significant growth potential in new regions [2] - The popularity of the Labubu IP and other new products is expected to drive social engagement and revenue growth during the upcoming holiday season, particularly around Halloween and year-end festivities [2][3] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, with successful product innovation maintaining fan engagement, while the overall brand strength has significantly improved due to the global success of Labubu and other leading IPs [3][4] - The business model is viewed as having strong competitive barriers, with the ability to realize long-term value from IP through effective operations, as evidenced by the healthy supply-demand ecosystem for its products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), highlighting its strong IP matrix and operational capabilities that continue to activate overseas markets and expand offline channels, leading to sales surges during holiday seasons [1] Group 1: Global Expansion and Market Demand - The globalization process is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding overseas supply chains and channels to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category has strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the number of overseas retail stores reached 171, with significant growth potential in North America (62 stores), Europe (28 stores), and Southeast Asia (44 stores) [1] - The recent Halloween product launches in North America have generated strong sales, and the upcoming holiday season is expected to boost social engagement and revenue growth for new IPs like Labubu [1] Group 2: Brand Strength and IP Development - The success of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the brand's strength significantly improving [2] - Labubu's revenue contribution is healthy, and the company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other key IPs has elevated Pop Mart's brand presence, exemplified by participation in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3: Long-term Business Model Viability - The company is viewed as one of the most competitive globally in terms of IP design, operation, and supply chain, capable of realizing long-term value through effective IP management [3] - Recent product launches have maintained a slight premium, indicating a healthier supply-demand ecosystem compared to June, which is beneficial for cultivating long-term fans [3]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced a volatile trend in November, with the index fluctuating between 25,178.63 and 27,188.81 points, failing to break the 27,000-point mark or drop below 25,000 points [1][2] - The market was initially buoyed by the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown and easing tensions between China and the U.S., but later faced declines due to concerns over potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait [1][2] Sector Performance - Bank stocks performed well, with several state-owned banks reaching historical highs, while innovative drug companies like BeiGene (06160) also saw significant gains [2] - Solid-state battery stocks showed strong performance, driven by trends in energy storage and price increases, with notable gains from companies like Longpan Technology (603906) and Weichai Power (000338) [2] Economic Indicators and Expectations - The Federal Reserve's December meeting is a key focus, with market expectations for a rate cut rising significantly, from about 30% to 80% following dovish comments from Fed officials [3] - Upcoming economic work meetings in December are expected to provide guidance on fiscal and monetary policies, with potential increases in deficit rates and special bond quotas [4] Currency and International Factors - The Chinese yuan continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, indicating strong domestic factors driving this trend, alongside positive sentiment from foreign investors towards Chinese assets [5] - The market is closely monitoring Japan's potential interest rate hike, which could lead to capital inflows into undervalued Hong Kong stocks [5] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for December emphasizes following market expectations, particularly regarding policy changes and major events [7][8] - Key sectors to watch include technology, consumer goods, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from upcoming trends and events [8] Company Highlights - **Rongchang Bio (09995)**: Reported a revenue of 1.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, with a gross margin of 84.27% [11] - **Leap Motor (09863)**: Achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan [14] - **TCL Electronics (01070)**: Reported a 8.7% increase in TV sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rise in MiniLED TV sales [16][17] - **MGM China (02282)**: Announced a net income of 8.51 billion HKD in Q3 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase, driven by strong high-end demand [28][29] - **China Gold International (02099)**: Achieved a revenue of 925 million USD in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, with a significant increase in gold and copper production [30][31]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the IP collectibles market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$37.7 billion as of November 27, 2025 Key Points 2026 Outlook - **Price Target**: Adjusted from HK$382.00 to HK$325.00, reflecting market conditions and growth expectations [1] - **Sales Forecast**: Expected total sales of Rmb48 billion in 2026, representing a 26% year-over-year growth [11] - **Growth Drivers**: Sustained momentum anticipated from China and APAC regions, supported by strategic marketing and store openings in the US [1][2] Performance Metrics - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Labubu sales projected at Rmb15.5 billion in 2025, with growth moderating to 13% in 2026 [3][17] - Non-Labubu IPs expected to contribute Rmb22.4 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 35% in 2026 [11][13] - **Net Profit Margin**: Expected to remain high, around 32% in 2026, supported by lower advertising and promotional expenses [4][46] Market Dynamics - **US Market Growth**: Forecasted sales growth of 34% in 2026, with a long-term view that the US market could surpass China due to its size and demand for IP collectibles [22][23] - **Offline Expansion**: Emphasis on increasing offline presence, which currently accounts for only 35% of US revenue, compared to 60% in the broader toy and hobby category [25][30] Strategic Initiatives - **Product Launches**: Management plans to increase product launches in 2026, including new figurine collections and plush series [20][21] - **Localized Marketing**: Enhanced marketing efforts to strengthen Labubu's global presence through localized designs and collaborations [31][32] Financial Adjustments - **P/E Ratio**: Target P/E reduced from 32x to 26x for 2026, reflecting unfavorable market conditions and a focus on near-term growth [5][59] - **Sales Volatility**: Increased sales volatility expected in the short term due to market dynamics and consumer behavior shifts [5][59] Regional Insights - **Greater China**: Sales estimated at Rmb21 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 22% in 2026 [38] - **APAC Opportunities**: Strong growth potential in Japan and Korea, leveraging cultural similarities and consumer preferences [42][43] Risks and Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: Current bearish sentiment may overlook the long-term growth potential driven by a recurring customer base [2][3] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Management is exploring production options in Latin America to shorten supply chains and improve US operations [35] Conclusion - Pop Mart is positioned for sustained growth in the IP collectibles market, with strategic initiatives aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing brand presence both domestically and internationally. The company’s focus on offline expansion and localized marketing efforts is expected to drive future sales growth, despite current market volatility and adjustments in financial projections.