牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 手机用存储芯片非常紧缺、且大涨价 在回答投资者提问时，中芯国际透露，当前手机用存储芯片特别紧缺，还涨价很多。 11月17日，A股存储芯片概念再度走强，时空科技涨10%，普冉股份、佰维存储等盘中一度涨超 10%。 "虽然指引看起来比较平，但我们的产线实际上还是非常满的。 三季度产能利用率都到95.8%了， 产线是供不应求的状态。"中芯国际表示，之所以四季度指引没有大的跃升，主要有两个原因： 消息面上，三星对存储芯片继续涨价，或有力支撑了市场走势。但上证报记者注意到，中芯国际于 11月17日晚间披露的投资者调研纪要，则透露了更多存储行业趋势的信息。 一是手机市场现在存储器特别紧缺，价格也涨得非常厉害。客户担心，就算其他芯片都备齐了，万 一存储器不够，整机也组装不起来，这也导致客户控制其他芯片的成本。为此，手机厂商都在为这 个事谈判和观望。 二是在网通行业，客户在四季度下单就比较谨慎，怕自己货拿多了，总体比较谨慎，所以公司在四 季度并没有给出一个非常高的增长数值。 "存储大周期对制造业是正面影响，但对终端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high demand and capacity utilization, with companies like SMIC reporting a utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and sustained high prices [2]. Industry Insights - SMIC has reported a strong order book, particularly in analog and memory chips, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCU, amidst a supply shortage in the industry [2]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.92% and the Nasdaq by 0.84%, with major tech stocks like Dell and AMD experiencing significant declines, indicating market pressure on tech stocks, particularly those related to AI [2]. - Morgan Stanley has downgraded several equipment manufacturers due to expected profit compression from rising storage chip prices and continued price increases into 2026 [2]. - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to accelerate its domestic production efforts, driven by positive demand from AIGC and consumer sectors, alongside a wave of mergers and acquisitions [3]. - Relevant ETFs, such as the Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF, focus on semiconductor equipment and materials, which are crucial for domestic substitution and are expected to benefit from the AI-driven demand expansion [3].

Group 1: Company Investigation - Kexin Information (300730) has been investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, as announced on November 17, 2025 [1] - The company reported a revenue of 93.65 million yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 36.58%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 58.84 million yuan [1] - Kexin Information's stock price was 18.01 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 4.343 billion yuan as of November 17 [1] Group 2: Financing Trends - The financing balance of A-shares has reached a historical high of 24,746.99 billion yuan as of November 14, 2025, marking a 34.63% increase from the end of the previous half-year [2] - Thirteen primary industries have seen net financing purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan, with the electronics sector leading at 148.91 billion yuan [2] - The power equipment sector followed with net financing purchases of 91.57 billion yuan, while the communication and non-ferrous metal sectors also exceeded 40 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - A total of 110 stocks have recorded net financing purchases exceeding 1 billion yuan since the second half of 2025, with Ningde Times (300750) leading at 12.25 billion yuan [4] - Other notable stocks include Xinyi Technology (300502) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), with net financing purchases of 11.68 billion yuan and 11.43 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The demand for optical modules is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 22% over the next five years, driven by AI applications and network upgrades [5]

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices hit a one-month low, with the S&P 500 down 0.92%, the Dow Jones down 1.18%, and the Nasdaq down 0.84% [1] - Financial and energy sectors fell nearly 2%, leading the decline in the S&P; the chip index dropped over 1% for three consecutive days, with Nvidia retreating nearly 2% [1] - The Chinese concept stock index fell over 1% for five consecutive days, with Xiaopeng Motors' stock dropping 10% after its earnings report [1] - US Treasury prices saw a decrease in decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield retreating after two days of increases [1] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar index continued to rise from a four-week low, while the offshore RMB fell over 100 points, breaching the 7.11 mark [2] - Oil prices retreated after two days of gains, and gold prices fell for three consecutive days to a one-week low, with spot gold dropping over 2% [2] Domestic Major Events - High-level financial dialogue between China and Germany held in Beijing, achieving multiple consensus outcomes and easing trade tensions [3] - The Hydrogen Energy Branch of the China Industrial Development Promotion Association held a seminar, releasing the "Initiative for Healthy Development of China's Electrolyzer Industry" [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments issued a notice to promote the "East Silk West Solid" initiative in the silk industry, encouraging the creation of regional public brands [3] - The National Medical Products Administration released opinions on deepening cosmetic regulation reforms to promote high-quality industry development [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with the Ministry of Finance, issued opinions on accelerating the construction of modern state-owned forest farms [3] - The 2025 Quantum Technology and Industry Conference will be held from November 20 to 22, showcasing significant technological and industrial achievements [3] Industry Insights - Semiconductor: SMIC reported a 95.8% capacity utilization rate in Q3, indicating high demand, but the lack of significant growth in Q4 guidance is attributed to high memory prices causing customer hesitance [8] - Shipping: European shipping futures surged by 6.73%, with Maersk planning to raise freight rates for routes from Far East to Northern Europe starting December 1 [9] - 3D Printing: A significant breakthrough was achieved with the successful flight test of a 3D-printed simplified turbojet engine, marking a transition from technology validation to large-scale application [10] - Cosmetics: The National Medical Products Administration's new policies aim to foster a supportive environment for innovation and promote the emergence of competitive domestic brands [11] Company Announcements - New IPO: Jingchuang Electric plans to issue shares at 12.10 yuan each, focusing on cold chain intelligent control products, holding the largest market share in China [13] - A-share companies are undergoing significant stock price fluctuations, with several companies like Pingtan Development and Haixia Innovation facing stock suspension for investigation due to abnormal price movements [14] - SMIC is experiencing a supply shortage in the memory industry, leading to sustained high prices [14]

Group 1 - SMIC reported a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating high demand and a supply shortage in its production lines [1] - The company has received a significant number of urgent orders for analog and storage products, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCUs, leading to a temporary decrease in the proportion of mobile business [1] - The global MCU market is projected to reach approximately $31.45 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.50% from 2024 to 2029, while the Chinese MCU market is expected to grow from $7.84 billion in 2024 to $12.68 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 10.09% [1] Group 2 - The demand for NOR Flash is expected to increase significantly due to the transition to HBM4 specifications in AI servers, with a projected 50% increase in usage [2] - Manufacturers like Winbond are experiencing full order books and may raise NOR Flash prices by 30% in Q1 of next year, with domestic manufacturers also expected to increase prices by at least 10% [2] - The supply of NOR Flash remains tight due to strong consumer demand and industrial recovery, with no clear increase in supply expected in the short term [2] Group 3 - Shanghai Beiling has launched its NOR Flash products for applications in IoT, energy monitoring, industrial control, automotive electronics, wearable devices, and consumer electronics [3]

早 报 精 选 4、中芯国际：公司承接了大量模拟、存储、MCU等急单，目前存储行业供应存在缺口预计高价位态势将持续。 5、宁德时代第三大股东黄世霖本次询价转让价格为376.12元/股，较昨日收盘价折价3.8%。 宏 观 新 闻 1、 2025年11月17日，中国国务院副总理何立峰与德国副总理兼财政部部长克林拜尔在北京共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。 声明中提到，双方欢迎符合条件的上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所上市公司在法兰克福证券交易所发行全球存托凭证。声明还提 到，双方支持加强在证券、期货及衍生品领域的交流合作。 2、日前，个别日本政客称中方对高市早苗涉台错误言论"反应过度"。日本内阁官房长官也辩称，日本政府在台湾问题上的立场没有 改变，与1972年《中日联合声明》一致。对此，外交部发言人毛宁表示，中方敦促日方本着对历史和双边关系负责的态度，停止越 线玩火，收回错误言行，切实把对华承诺体现在实际行动上。 3、据《金融时报》报道，美国白宫国家安全备忘录以及相关声明称，阿里巴巴集团向中国军方提供了针对美国目标的技术支持。外 交部发言人毛宁在昨日的例行记者会上表示，有关企业已经作出了回应。中国政府高度重视并依法 ...

Core Viewpoint - SMIC reported a strong demand for its production capacity, with a utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the market. The company has adjusted its order fulfillment strategy due to a shortage of memory chips, particularly affecting its mobile business segment [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, SMIC's revenue reached approximately 49.51 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 3.82 billion RMB, up 41.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.2%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, SMIC's revenue was 17.16 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9%. The net profit for the quarter was 1.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 43.1%, with a gross margin of 25.5%, up 4.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][2][3]. Production Capacity and Market Conditions - SMIC's production capacity utilization increased from 92.5% in Q2 to 95.8% in Q3, with a monthly capacity of approximately 1.02 million wafers [2][3]. - The company has received a significant number of urgent orders for various products, including NOR/NAND Flash and MCUs, leading to a temporary reduction in mobile business share as non-urgent orders were postponed [1][4]. Market Outlook - Despite a traditionally slow Q4, SMIC's revenue guidance remains stable, projecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0% to 2%. The company anticipates maintaining a full production line and a gross margin of 18% to 20% [4]. - The ongoing shortage of memory chips has led to significant price increases, with DRAM prices rising by 171.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025. This situation has created a cautious ordering environment among clients, particularly in the networking industry [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - The current price surge in memory chips is attributed to the global demand for AI chips, with major manufacturers shifting their focus to higher-margin products, resulting in a tight supply of standard memory chips [5][6]. - SMIC believes that the supply chain's price increases will continue to impact downstream products, leading to price pressures for OEMs while maintaining a cautious outlook for future supply availability [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that SMIC's (00981) Q4 guidance is generally in line with market expectations, despite being a traditional off-season, with strong demand anticipated. The company's capacity utilization and wafer production are better than the Q4 guidance, leading to a forecast of stable or slightly increased capital expenditure in 2025, and a 5% to 22% upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, reflecting improved gross margin expectations. The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 58.8 to HKD 93.3, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]. Group 1 - SMIC's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing by 7.8% quarter-on-quarter to USD 2.38 billion, surpassing the guidance of 5% to 7% growth [1]. - The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 22%, also exceeding the guidance of 18% to 20%, driven by increased capacity utilization at 95.8%, reduced production volatility, and product mix adjustments [1]. - The net profit for the last quarter grew by 29% year-on-year to USD 192 million, which was 6% above market expectations [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the storage "super cycle" on end-user demand and the outlook for domestic chip production trends in China, particularly focusing on the performance and projections of SMIC. Group 1: Financial Performance - SMIC reported a 7.8% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 22.0%, exceeding company guidance [1] - The company anticipates Q4 revenue to remain flat or grow by 2%, with a gross margin forecast of 18-20%, which is below Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The rapid growth in storage demand for AI applications, such as HBM and eSSD, has led to significant price increases in consumer-grade DRAM and NAND over the past few months [1] - Due to concerns over adequate storage supply, downstream customers in sectors like mobile and automotive are adopting a cautious approach in their 2026 production planning, which may impact the capacity utilization of SMIC's mobile-related process platforms [1] Group 3: Domestic Production Outlook - In Q3, revenue from the Chinese market grew by 11% quarter-on-quarter, increasing its share by 2.1 percentage points to 86%, indicating an accelerated trend towards domestic production in the supply chain [2] - The company is optimistic about the continued strong demand for domestic chip production in sectors such as home appliances and networking in 2026 [2] Group 4: Revenue Forecast Adjustments - The company has lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 4.8% and 3.1%, respectively, and reduced net profit forecasts for the same years by 3.0% and 3.6% [3] - After adjustments, the company expects total revenue of $10.81 billion in 2026, representing a 17% year-on-year growth [3] - SMIC is viewed as the only company in mainland China capable of large-scale production of advanced process technologies, which gives it strategic scarcity, and it is assigned a valuation of 4.7x 2026 EPB [3]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's fourth-quarter revenue guidance indicates flat or 2% growth, reflecting cautious customer behavior in planning for the upcoming year [1] Group 1: Revenue Guidance - The fourth-quarter revenue guidance is expected to be flat or show a 2% increase, with no significant quarter-on-quarter leap [1] - This cautious outlook is attributed to customers adjusting shipment volumes in preparation for next year's plans [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - Despite the flat revenue guidance, the company's production lines are operating at a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in the third quarter, indicating strong demand and a supply-constrained situation [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The smartphone market is experiencing a severe shortage of memory chips, leading to significant price increases, which raises concerns for customers about assembling complete devices [1] - In the networking and communication sector, customers are placing orders more cautiously in the fourth quarter, fearing excess inventory, while market orders are shifting to competitors [1]