炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 智通财经1月11日讯（编辑 若宇）十大券商最新策略观点新鲜出炉，具体如下： | 券商 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 继续聚焦资源和传统制造定价权的提升 | | 年西证券 | 把握做多窗口 牛市行情或将继续推进 | | 信达证券 | 市场成交放量风险偏好回升 交易性资金有望回暖接力 | | 中泰证券 | 开年市场新高后或如何演绎? | | 来等班券 | 春季行情短期进入主升阶段 继续聚焦科技成长和周期成长主线 | | 方正证券 | 春季攻势已经展开 配置上建议关注三条主线 | | 浙商证券 | 市场选择直接上攻 均衡配行业、持仓迎春节 | | 光大证券 | 政策红利释放 A股市场热度短期有望延续 | | 东吴证券 | 建议以景气成长为主 | | 中国银河 | A股市场开启"躁动"行情 重点布局结构性投资机会 | 中信证券：继续聚焦资源和传统制造定价权的提升 从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动 的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修， ...

中信证券研报称，年初的躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中密集入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎 资金的追涨加速了行情演绎，但躁动主要发生在主题板块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布 仓方向。从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、 小票轮动的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状 态。不过，抛开短期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合 降低波动的诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"（而不是年初踏空资金）会持续流向的 方向。在配置上，建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合 波动。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 张铭楷 陈峰 高玉森 陈泽平 刘春彤 年初的躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中密集入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎资金的追涨加速了 行情演绎，但躁动主要发生在主题板块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布仓方向。从当前的 量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动的震荡上 行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状态。不过，抛开短 期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合降低波动的诉求是 更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"（而不是年初踏空资金）会持续流向的方向。在配置上， 建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合波动。 年初的躁动缘于跨年 踏空资金的集中密集入场 1）"人心思涨"是躁动的大背景，而一些前期谨慎资金的追涨加速了行情演绎。此轮躁动的性质与诸 如"超额储蓄/定存到期再配置"的流动性宏大叙事关系不大，躁动只是因为去年底还是有不少资金相对 谨慎，尤其是部 ...

权威答案来了。 去年11月，中信证券两次削减核心业务种类一事备受关注。当时，中信证券分别向证监会递交了两份减少业务 种类的申请材料，此事引发市场各种解读。 近日，证监会公布了相关情况。中信证券的其中一份申请材料，是拟将融资融券展业区域剔除广东省（深圳市 除外）、广西壮族自治区、海南省、云南省和贵州省。据悉，此为收购广州证券（现更名为中信证券华南）的 后续事项，是正常的业务调整。 申请减少业务种类 去年10月，中信证券分别向证监会递交了两份减少业务种类的申请材料。 第一份是： 关于中信证券股份有限 公司的《证券公司申请减少部分业务种类核准（证券经纪，证券投资咨询，与证券交易、证券投资活动有关的 财务顾问，证券自营，证券资产管理，证券承销，代销金融产品）》。 第二份是： 关于中信证券股份有限公司的《证券公司申请减少业务种类核准（证券保荐，证券融资融券，股 票期权做市交易，上市证券做市交易，通过子公司减少私募投资基金、另类投资、信息技术服务等业务，其他 业务）》。证监会于11月受理了相关申请。 记者注意到，由于当时公布出来的信息涉及减少的业务种类很广，包括投行、资管、经纪等，并未明确具体减 少哪一种，此事就在网上引 ...

- The report discusses a volume-timing model that has issued buy signals for major broad-based indices, indicating a positive market sentiment[1][2][22] - The volume-timing model is constructed by analyzing the volume indicators of major broad-based indices and their ETFs, which have shown an increase in trading volume, suggesting a bullish market outlook[1][2][22] - The specific construction process of the volume-timing model involves tracking the trading volume of major indices and ETFs, and when the volume increases significantly, the model issues a buy signal[1][2][22] - The evaluation of the volume-timing model indicates that it is effective in capturing market sentiment and providing timely buy signals[1][2][22] - The report also introduces a sentiment indicator based on the proportion of rising stocks within the CSI 300 index, which helps gauge market sentiment by tracking the number of stocks with positive returns over a specified period[23][24] - The construction process of this sentiment indicator involves calculating the proportion of CSI 300 index constituent stocks with positive returns over a given period, and using this proportion to assess market sentiment[23][24] - The evaluation of this sentiment indicator suggests that it is useful for quickly capturing market upturns, although it may miss out on gains during prolonged bullish phases and has limitations in predicting market downturns[23][24] - Another sentiment indicator discussed in the report is the moving average sentiment indicator, which uses the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 index to determine market trends[30][31] - The construction process of the moving average sentiment indicator involves calculating the eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) of the CSI 300 index closing prices, and assigning values based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds[30][31] - The evaluation of the moving average sentiment indicator indicates that it provides a clearer understanding of the market trends and is effective in identifying bullish phases[30][31] - The report includes backtesting results for the volume-timing model, showing that the model has consistently issued buy signals for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the ChiNext Index[23] - The sentiment indicator based on the proportion of rising stocks within the CSI 300 index has shown that the proportion of rising stocks is around 74%, indicating a positive market sentiment[24] - The moving average sentiment indicator shows that the CSI 300 index is currently in a bullish phase, as the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average[30][31]

Wind统计各类债券发行数据显示， 2025 年度中国内地债券发行增势不减，全年各类债券发行合计 89.0 万亿，同比增长 11% 。利率债发行达到 33.0 万 亿，较去年增长 18% ，其中国债同比增长 28% 、地方政府债同比增长 5% 、政策性金融债同比增长 17% 。信用债发行 22.2 万亿，较去年增长 8% 。同业 存单累计发行 33.8 万亿，同比增长 7% 。 | 债券类别 | 只数 | 发行额(亿元)同比增长率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 利率债 | 3534 | 329,829.6 | 18% | | 国债 | 206 | 160,140.2 | 28% | | 地方政府债 | 2449 | 102.901.0 | 5% | | 政策银行债 | 879 | 66.788.4 | 17% | | 信用债 | 24003 | 222,246.7 | 8% | | 金融债 | 1499 | 56,780.6 | 25% | | 商业银行债 | 242 | 15.002.0 | 46% | | 商业银行次级债券 | 166 | 20.696.7 | 9% | ...

Core Insights - The ABS market in 2025 showed a robust issuance trend, with a total of 2,435 new projects and an issuance scale of 23,250 billion yuan, representing a 14% increase compared to the previous year (20,417 billion yuan) [1][6]. Segment Summaries Credit ABS - A total of 238 new projects were issued, with a total amount of 2,915 billion yuan, marking an 8% year-on-year increase. The largest asset class was personal auto loans, with 32 issuances totaling 1,185 billion yuan, followed by non-performing loans with 178 issuances totaling 821 billion yuan [2][9]. Corporate ABS - The corporate ABS segment saw 1,560 issuances, totaling 14,133 billion yuan, which is a 20% increase year-on-year. The largest issuance was in financing lease receivables, with 295 projects totaling 2,891 billion yuan, followed by corporate receivables with 246 projects totaling 2,308 billion yuan [2][12]. Asset-Backed Notes (ABN) - The ABN market had 612 issuances, with a total amount of 5,731 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase. The main types of issuances were bank/internet consumer loans (191 projects, 1,685 billion yuan) and general small loan receivables (141 projects, 1,295 billion yuan) [2][15]. Market Size and Composition - As of 2025, the cumulative market size reached approximately 35,832 billion yuan, with credit ABS at 4,339 billion yuan, corporate ABS at 22,808 billion yuan, ABN at 6,535 billion yuan, and public REITs at 2,150 billion yuan [4]. Underwriting Performance - In the underwriting rankings for 2025, CITIC Securities led with 527 projects and a total underwriting amount of 2,809 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Junan with 464 projects totaling 2,329.1 billion yuan, and Ping An Securities with 287 projects totaling 1,749.6 billion yuan [17][19]. Detailed Underwriting Rankings - For credit ABS, CITIC Securities topped the list with 109 projects and 538.5 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Securities with 120 projects and 445.4 billion yuan [23][25]. - In the corporate ABS segment, CITIC Securities also ranked first with 308 projects and 1,853.5 billion yuan, while Ping An Securities followed with 257 projects totaling 1,693.3 billion yuan [28][30]. Asset Class Rankings - The top three asset classes by issuance volume in 2025 were financing lease receivables, bank/internet consumer loans, and corporate receivables [33]. - In the financing lease category, Ping An Securities led with 614 billion yuan, followed closely by Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities [34]. - For bank/internet consumer loans, China Merchants Securities topped the rankings with 502.6 billion yuan, followed by Huatai Securities and CICC [39]. Public REITs - In the public REITs market, the original rights holders' rankings showed Runze Technology Development at the top with 45 billion yuan, followed by Beijing Shou Nong Information Industry and Suning Commercial Group [55][56]. - The plan managers' rankings for public REITs were led by CITIC Securities with 127.9 billion yuan, followed by Southern Capital Management and CICC [58][59].

(本文来自第一财经) 中信证券指出，展望2026年，我们认为AI依然是板块估值上行的核心催化，核心关注：1）模型迭代、 应用落地以及业绩兑现带来的叙事强化；2）模型公司上市后带来的估值对标，有望进一步驱动互联网 公司AI业务价值重估。对于短期AI相关性较低的公司，业绩能见度和估值性价比将是选股核心要素， 建议关注竞争格局相对稳定、业绩韧性较强的垂类龙头、以供给创新带动的高景气赛道以及低估值下的 绝对收益标的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of chemical companies is expected to gradually bottom out and recover, driven by a backdrop of weakening industry capital expenditure and the domestic push against "involution" [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on high-energy-consuming products such as calcium carbide, caustic soda, and yellow phosphorus, which may become effective tools against "involution" [1] - Attention to segments where self-discipline is steadily advancing and initial results of the "involution" countermeasures are visible [1] - Certain products have fallen below or are close to the industry cash cost line, with leading companies having significant cost advantages [1] - Chemical products with strong demand or new demand drivers that have the potential for sustained price increases [1] - Chemical products related to new materials and new applications [1]

中信证券研报称，1月3日特朗普政府突袭委内瑞拉首都，绑架其总统马杜罗。该举措正是在贯彻2025年 美国《国家安全战略》中的"门罗主义特朗普推论"，对南美各国加强控制力。我们认为该类行动正在透 支美国国家信用，加速破坏基于规则的国际秩序。但同时，由于美国的军事投送能力下降，这类"绑架 行动"或"斩首行动"已经很难在非南美洲国家实施。而21世纪以来，全球央行的购金主力是非南美洲的 南方国家央行。因此我们认为，委内瑞拉事件后，特朗普任期内，黄金价格上行将会因此加速。 ...