智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报，根据中电联数据，单9月用电量同比增长4.5%，增速较8月的 5.0%下滑0.5个百分点。分部门看，9月二产用电需求持续修复至5.7%，三产用电需求增速依旧保持韧 性。推荐配置经营具备稳定性且估值重新具备安全边际的水电；兼具业绩弹性及低估值的H股龙头火 电；存在补贴发放预期改善且深度破净的H股绿电；受益数字化和新型电力系统日益融合的新场景及新 模式等，如虚拟电厂、微电网、综能服务、功率预测等。 中信证券主要观点如下： 二产用电持续回升，9月用电增长4.5%。 根据中电联数据(下同)，单9月用电量同比增长4.5%，增速较8月的5.0%下滑0.5个百分点。分部门看，9 月二产用电需求持续修复至5.7%，三产用电需求增速依旧保持韧性；9月气温环比下降明显，叠加去年 同期居民用电量基数较高导致居民单月用电同比增速转负；四大高耗能行业用电需求增速分化，其中黑 色金属行业用电需求同比高增、而非金属行业用电需求较为平淡。分区域看，9月高耗能地区用电增速 为5.8%，维持高位增长；受益出口的带动作用，沿海地区用电同比增速提升至7.2%。 1~9月国内累计新增风电/光伏分别为6,109/2 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the GMV growth rate for the e-commerce sector during the "Double 11" shopping festival (October 9 to November 11) is expected to remain consistent with last year's overall performance [1] E-commerce Performance - Instant retail platforms such as Meituan Flash Purchase and Taobao Flash Purchase have shown impressive growth during this year's event, warranting ongoing attention [1] - Categories like home appliances and 3C digital products, stimulated by national subsidies, have achieved steady growth despite high base comparisons from the previous year [1] - There is a noticeable recovery in discretionary consumption categories such as beauty and apparel, indicating an overall positive trend in consumer demand [1] Future Outlook - It is recommended to monitor the core e-commerce platforms' developments in supply chain capabilities, core user investments, and AI empowerment [1] - Continuous evaluation of the synergy between food delivery, instant retail investments, and e-commerce is suggested for future assessments [1]

Core Insights - Since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have shown impressive performance, with the computing power sector leading the market [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, domestic computing power is on the rise, with performance elasticity and investment certainty expected to replicate the long bull market seen in US stocks since 2023 [1] Sector Analysis - The urgency for development in semiconductor equipment and AI chips has increased due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - Domestic chip manufacturers have begun to explore solutions such as super nodes to compensate for single card performance disadvantages by leveraging multi-card advantages, facilitating breakthroughs in computing power [1] - The construction of multi-card clusters demands higher quality and quantity of components, presenting greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Sub-sectors such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCBs, and quantum computing are expected to experience higher performance elasticity [1] Application Opportunities - The model and application side is anticipated to witness localized explosive opportunities, particularly in internet tech giants empowered by AI [1] - Fast-developing AI application sectors include AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and commercial autonomous driving [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that since 2025, both Chinese and American technology stocks have performed remarkably, with the computing power sector leading the market in growth [1] - The outlook for 2026 indicates that domestic computing power is on the rise, showing both performance elasticity and investment certainty, potentially replicating the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023 [1] - There are expected localized explosive opportunities in models and applications, particularly in AI-enabled internet technology giants and rapidly commercializing AI applications such as AI advertising, AI agents, AI video generation, and automated driving [1]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry has experienced a significant performance surge in Q3 2025, with 42 listed brokerages achieving a total net profit of 169 billion yuan, marking a 62.4% year-on-year increase [1] Revenue Performance - The top five brokerages exhibit a clear "one super, one strong" revenue pattern, with CITIC Securities leading at 55.815 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Junan at 45.892 billion yuan, together contributing 1.01707 billion yuan, which accounts for 57.6% of the top five's total revenue [2] - Guotai Junan's revenue growth of 101.6% is primarily attributed to the merger with Haitong Securities, while China Galaxy and GF Securities reported revenue growth of 44.39% and 41.04%, respectively [2] Net Profit Performance - The industry saw five brokerages surpassing 10 billion yuan in net profit, with CITIC Securities at 23.159 billion yuan and Guotai Junan at 22.074 billion yuan, establishing a "dual giant" market structure [3] - Guotai Junan led in net profit growth at 131.80%, influenced by goodwill from the merger, while CITIC Securities showed a 37.86% increase, indicating strong profitability [4] Brokerage Business - The average daily trading volume in the market reached 1.64 trillion yuan, a 106.1% increase year-on-year, driving brokerage commission income growth of over 50% across the board [5] - Guotai Junan's commission income surged to 10.814 billion yuan, a 142.80% increase, while CITIC Securities led in scale with 10.939 billion yuan, reflecting a 52.90% growth [6] Proprietary Business - The top five brokerages collectively generated 83.579 billion yuan in proprietary business income, accounting for 47.02% of total revenue [6] - CITIC Securities led proprietary income at 31.603 billion yuan, a 45.88% increase, while Guotai Junan exceeded 20 billion yuan with 20.370 billion yuan, marking a 90.11% growth [6] - There is a notable divergence in proprietary income growth rates, with Guotai Junan leading at 90.11%, while Huatai Securities experienced a decline of 15.08% due to a high base effect from a previous year [7]

Core Insights - The brokerage business has shown remarkable performance in the third quarter of 2025, becoming a significant driver of revenue growth for listed brokerages [1][2] - The transformation towards wealth management is timely as retail investors increasingly allocate assets to equity markets, emphasizing the need for brokerages to enhance their professional service capabilities [1][3] Group 1: Brokerage Business Performance - In the first three quarters, 42 brokerages reported a total net income from brokerage fees of 111.77 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 74.64% [1] - Leading firms such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan achieved net income from brokerage fees exceeding 10 billion yuan, with figures of 10.939 billion yuan and 10.814 billion yuan respectively [1] - Other notable brokerages like GF Securities, China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, and others also reported net income from brokerage fees exceeding 6 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Growth Rates and Market Dynamics - All listed brokerages reported year-on-year growth in net income from brokerage fees, with the lowest growth rate being 47.91% [2] - Guolian Minsheng led the industry with a staggering year-on-year growth rate of 293.05% in net income from brokerage fees [2] - Smaller brokerages such as First Capital, Caida Securities, and others also reported growth rates exceeding 80% [2] Group 3: Wealth Management Transformation - The securities industry has been actively pursuing wealth management transformation since 2017, with many brokerages rebranding their brokerage departments to focus on wealth management [3] - Despite facing challenges in product and service offerings compared to banks, brokerages possess strong investment capabilities and research strengths, providing them with advantages in wealth management [3] - The construction of product platforms is seen as a critical breakthrough for the transformation of wealth management [3] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives by Brokerages - First Capital is focusing on a comprehensive service model to enhance customer loyalty and mitigate fee pressure through improved service quality [4] - GF Securities aims to develop high-quality customer segments and efficient online operations while enhancing multi-asset allocation capabilities [4] - Dongxing Securities emphasizes a "buy-side" approach in its wealth management strategy, aiming to strengthen its operational capabilities and product offerings [4]

Core Viewpoint - Securities firms are optimistic about the industry outlook for 2026, focusing on valuation recovery and structural opportunities, with a shift in market drivers from valuation to earnings fundamentals [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Development Trends - The securities industry is expected to see core growth areas in wealth management, investment banking, internationalization, and technology empowerment [2]. - Wealth management is entering an upward trend, with strong new account openings and record-high financing balances, while A-share daily trading volume is projected to stabilize at 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The construction of product platforms is crucial for the transformation of wealth management, requiring alignment of product supply and sales channels [2]. Group 2: International Business Development - Developing international business is essential for securities firms to become leading investment banks, driven by increasing demand from overseas investors for Chinese assets [3]. - The international business revenue of securities firms has seen significant growth, with historical highs in the first half of 2025, supported by strong cross-border investment demand [3]. - The focus on AI technology applications and cross-border business will enhance service efficiency and asset pricing capabilities, helping to escape the homogenization of competition [3]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery Potential - The current valuation of the securities sector remains relatively low, with a projected net asset return of around 7.2% for 2026, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [4]. - The capital market is undergoing profound changes, with increased attractiveness of equity assets in a low-interest-rate environment, suggesting a positive development cycle ahead [4]. - Improved liquidity and favorable policies are expected to further enhance the valuation of securities stocks as the market improves [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The securities sector is anticipated to undergo a reshaping of its landscape, with a focus on leading firms with international capabilities and comprehensive service advantages [5]. - Mid-sized and large securities firms that can achieve leapfrog development through mergers and acquisitions are also expected to present investment opportunities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global energy storage industry has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% over the past 1 to 2 years, with positive prospects for continued growth in the coming year due to supportive policies and market conditions [1] Industry Summary - The domestic energy storage market is expected to benefit from the implementation of capacity pricing policies and supporting measures from various provinces, leading to improved terminal yield and sustained growth across the entire supply chain from bidding to installation [1] - The energy storage industry is projected to maintain a growth rate above 50% in the next year, supported by national policies and the backdrop of global energy shortages, indicating a promising future for the sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry, particularly focusing on equity wealth management [1]. Core Insights - The equity market in China is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in the issuance of equity mutual funds, indicating a robust development in equity wealth management [4][9]. - The demand for wealth preservation and appreciation among residents is strong, suggesting a shift in asset allocation towards equities, which presents substantial potential for the equity wealth management market [25][30]. - Securities firms are positioned as key players in equity wealth management, benefiting from the sector's growth due to their inherent advantages in market investment capabilities, asset acquisition, research capabilities, and customer base [30][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Equity Market Recovery - As of September 2025, the total market capitalization of the Chinese stock market reached 105 trillion yuan, accounting for 78% of GDP, marking a high since 2022 [9]. - The average monthly new account openings reached 2.9 million from October 2024 to September 2025, a 48% increase from 2023 [9]. - Daily average trading volumes for stock funds hit historical highs, with a peak of 3.6 trillion yuan [9][18]. 2. Future of Equity Wealth Management - The report emphasizes the strong potential for equity wealth management, driven by structural upgrades in the economy, declining interest rates, and supportive policies [25][30]. - The shift in asset allocation from real estate to equities is anticipated, with a growing focus on equity wealth management services [25][30]. 3. Securities Firms' Role - Securities firms are transitioning from traditional brokerage services to wealth management, with a significant reduction in brokerage income share from 70.5% in 2008 to 27% in 2025 [31][32]. - The firms are enhancing their product offerings and investment advisory services, with 29 firms approved for fund advisory business trials [30][35]. - The market share of securities firms in mutual fund distribution has increased from 6% in 2017 to 11% in 2023, with a notable advantage in ETF sales [41][47].

Core Viewpoint - Major brokerage firms are optimistic about the securities industry in 2026, anticipating a "Davis Double Play" due to recovering market conditions and improving fundamentals, while current valuations remain at historical lows [1] Group 1: Performance Growth - The A-share market's upward trend has significantly boosted brokerage firms' performance, with a total margin balance nearing 2.4 trillion yuan and a record high trading volume of 301.56 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - Listed brokerages achieved a net profit of 169.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 63% year-on-year increase, with the third quarter alone reaching a record 72.5 billion yuan [2] - Core business segments such as brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest income, and investment returns saw year-on-year growth rates of 74%, 23%, 2%, 56%, and 43% respectively, indicating a broad-based recovery [2] Group 2: Valuation Discrepancy - Despite strong performance, the brokerage sector's stock prices have lagged, with the Wind brokerage index rising only 6.02% year-to-date compared to significant gains in major indices [3] - The industry is expected to see a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 7.2% in 2026, which is above the 70th percentile since 2016, while current valuations are at the 40th percentile, indicating substantial room for future growth [3] - Institutional holdings in the brokerage sector are at a historical low, with the sector accounting for only 0.86% of actively managed fund holdings as of Q3 2025, underweighting the standard allocation by 3.21 percentage points [3] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - Wealth management, institutional business, and internationalization are identified as the three main growth engines for the brokerage industry moving forward [6] - The wealth management sector is expected to see a clear upward trend, with daily trading volumes in A-shares potentially stabilizing at 2 trillion yuan, and a recovery in financial product distribution [6] - The investment banking market is recovering, and the international business is benefiting from improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with major brokerages increasing their overseas revenue contributions [6] - Mergers and acquisitions, along with the application of AI technology, are anticipated to catalyze further growth in the sector, with policies encouraging consolidation among quality brokerages [6]