Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank is expected to achieve a 1.2% year-on-year growth in net profit to 150.2 billion yuan by 2025, surpassing both the bank's and market forecasts, primarily due to improvements in net interest income and a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline in non-interest income [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is anticipated to remain stable year-on-year for the previous year [1] - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to decline by 105 basis points to 13.4% [1] - The bank's provision coverage ratio has dropped below 400%, potentially due to stricter bad debt recognition standards and accelerated disposal of non-performing assets [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - The bank maintains a "Hold" rating, but the target price has been reduced from 52 HKD to 49 HKD to reflect the latest profit revisions and lower long-term ROE forecasts [1] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been increased by 1%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been decreased by 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) has shown a positive performance with a recent increase of 0.96%, reflecting a stable market trend and investor interest in the underlying assets [1]. Performance Summary - As of January 26, 2026, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.22%, with notable gains from stocks such as Zijin Mining (up 10.00%) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (up 6.66%) [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund has experienced a cumulative increase of 0.24% over the past week [1]. - The fund's year-to-date maximum drawdown is 1.30%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.06% [3]. Liquidity and Trading Activity - The trading volume for the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund was 6.07 thousand yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.1% [1]. - The average daily trading volume over the past year was 177.38 thousand yuan [1]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund has a Sharpe ratio of 2.12 since its inception, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [2]. - The tracking error over the past three months is 0.022%, demonstrating the fund's close alignment with the Shanghai 180 Index [5]. Fee Structure - The management fee for the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4]. Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 25.29% of the index, with notable companies including Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance [5]. - The top ten stocks and their respective weightings are as follows: - Kweichow Moutai: 4.22% - Zijin Mining: 4.03% - Ping An Insurance: 2.87% - Hengrui Medicine: 2.46% - WuXi AppTec: 2.08% - China Merchants Bank: 2.04% - Cambricon Technologies: 1.97% - Yangtze Power: 1.88% - SMIC: 1.80% - Industrial Fulian: 1.79% [5].

Group 1 - The article presents the top 20 stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index (CSPSADRP) based on their daily and year-to-date performance as of January 26, 2026 [1][6] - China Gold (600916.SH) leads with a daily increase of 9.98% and a year-to-date increase of 24.42%, with a dividend yield of 3.80% [1][6] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) follows with a daily rise of 8.26% and a year-to-date rise of 36.43%, offering a dividend yield of 5.75% [1][6] Group 2 - Other notable performers include Tian Guo Hai Tan (600938.SH) with a daily increase of 6.66% and a year-to-date increase of 10.97%, and Cai Zi Co., Ltd. (605599.SH) with a daily rise of 6.26% and a year-to-date rise of 26.57% [1][6] - The index also features China Petroleum (601857.SH) with a slight daily increase of 5.70% but a year-to-date decline of 0.19%, and China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a daily rise of 4.13% and a year-to-date increase of 2.84% [1][6] - The data indicates a mix of performance among the top 20 stocks, with some showing significant year-to-date gains while others are experiencing declines [1][6]

资产质量进一步改善 规模有序扩张 已披露2025年业绩快报的8家银行（4家股份行、3家城商行、1家农商行）均实现归母净利润同比正增 长，其中7家银行实现营业收入与归母净利润"双增"。 城商行业绩增长势头较为强劲。2025年，杭州银行以12.05%的归母净利润同比增速位居前列；宁波银 行实现归母净利润293.33亿元，同比增长8.13%；南京银行实现归母净利润218.07亿元，同比增长 8.08%。股份行中，2025年，浦发银行实现归母净利润500.17亿元，同比增长10.52%，增速较为突出； 中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行在面临多重挑战的经营环境下，归母净利润分别实现了2.98%、 1.21%、0.34%的增长。 在盈利向好的同时，8家银行资产规模保持稳健有序扩张。股份行资产规模进一步增长，截至2025年 末，招商银行总资产突破13万亿元，兴业银行总资产站上11万亿元，中信银行与浦发银行也双双迈入10 万亿元总资产行列。城农商行的资产扩张速度更为明显，截至2025年末，南京银行、宁波银行总资产较 上年末分别增长16.63%、16.11%，杭州银行也实现了11.96%的资产增长。 值得注意的是，已披露业绩快报的 ...

● 本报记者 吴杨 截至1月26日中国证券报记者发稿时，招商银行、浦发银行、中信银行、杭州银行等8家银行披露了业绩 快报。数据显示，2025年这些银行整体保持稳健发展态势，营业收入与归母净利润普遍实现正增长，资 产质量核心指标稳中向好。 规模有序扩张 已披露2025年业绩快报的8家银行（4家股份行、3家城商行、1家农商行）均实现归母净利润同比正增 长，其中7家银行实现营业收入与归母净利润"双增"。 城商行业绩增长势头较为强劲。2025年，杭州银行以12.05%的归母净利润同比增速位居前列；宁波银 行实现归母净利润293.33亿元，同比增长8.13%；南京银行实现归母净利润218.07亿元，同比增长 8.08%。股份行中，2025年，浦发银行实现归母净利润500.17亿元，同比增长10.52%，增速较为突出； 中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行在面临多重挑战的经营环境下，归母净利润分别实现了2.98%、 对于拨备水平的适度回调，市场观点认为，这主要源于资产质量整体改善，部分银行得以释放拨备来支 撑利润增长。国联民生证券银行业首席分析师王先爽表示，银行通过拨备反哺利润需满足两方面条件： 一是拨备储备较为充足，二是上一期 ...

今年年初，银行的债券配置超出了许多人的预期。尽管市场普遍认为 2026 年 的债券市场前景不佳，但实际上银行在增配债券。主要原因在于三大约束—— 资本金、利率和流动性——在年初得到了缓解。 首先是资本金约束，由于 1V1 指标暂时不会影响，加上跨季后资源重新规划，资本金约束在年初并未构成实 质性影响。其次是利率约束，今年银行负债成本预计大幅下降，主要由于定期 存款到期重置。例如国股行负债成本下行速度为 1~10 个 BP，而部分城商行 甚至超过 20 个 BP。因此，即使十年国债收益率为 185BP，相比去年 160BP 也显得更具吸引力。最后是流动性约束，今年一季度存款开门红超预期，使得 资金价格宽松，流动性没有出现明显紧张。 因此，在这种背景下，银行增配国 债成为可能且合理。此外，从综合 EVA 价值考虑，国债因免税且不占 RWA， 相较政金债和地方债更具优势。因此，银行选择了增配国债，并且更多地购买 7~10 年的期限品种。 二季度 39 个月封闭期产品规模约 1,200 亿，将关注剩余期限适配的 "神券"，如 240,208 和 220,209 等信用较好的五年期发行债券。 本周需关注资金面情况、地方 ...

Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential of certain stocks, particularly focusing on banks and utility companies, suggesting that holding these stocks can provide stable returns over time, especially in a bullish market or during a style rotation [1][16]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Companies like China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Yangtze Power, and China Mobile are highlighted as potential investments, with the worst-case scenario being the collection of dividends over time [1]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of China Merchants Bank is approximately 0.89, which is historically low, indicating that the opportunity outweighs the risk [3]. - The article suggests that convertible bonds are currently overpriced, and many investors may have forgotten the risks associated with them, as seen in previous years [3][4]. Group 2: Comparisons Between Investment Types - The article contrasts convertible bonds with the mentioned stocks, arguing that the latter lacks investor-friendly features such as buyback options and downwards adjustments [14]. - It is noted that while convertible bonds have protective clauses, many investors are primarily attracted to the potential for price appreciation rather than the guaranteed returns [16]. - The discussion includes the idea that the current low prices of certain stocks may present a buying opportunity, especially as they are core assets that could rebound [16]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Historical Context - The article reflects on past market behaviors, mentioning that sectors like real estate and liquor have faced significant downturns, which raises concerns about the stability of banks [6][7]. - There is a sentiment that the current market conditions may lead to a rotation in asset classes, suggesting that the undervalued stocks could start to gain traction [16]. - The potential for a bullish market or style rotation is emphasized, indicating that these stocks could experience a rebound in value [16].

1月26日，A股市场震荡，顺周期板块强势，截至15:00，银行ETF汇添富（512820）逆势收涨0.37%，终结三连阴，资金持续涌入高股息的银行板块，银行 ETF汇添富（512820）已连续12日吸金超1.3亿元。 | 1分 5分 15分 = | 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 Q 2 » | 银行ETF汇添 | 1.350 +0.005 +0.37% | 【银行ETF汇添富】2026/01/26 收1.350 幅0.37%(0.005) 开1.343 高1.360 低1.338 四 | 512 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7J MA120 1.447J MA250 1.4191 | 2024/11/25-2026/01/26(286日)▼ | SSE CNY 15:00:15 闭市 查看L2全图 | -1.610 | 交生 | -6.70% 120日 ...

Group 1 - The banking sector saw a slight decline of 0.0% on January 26, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Major banks in the sector experienced varied performance, with China Merchants Bank rising by 1.39% and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank falling by 1.52% [1] Group 2 - The banking sector experienced a net outflow of 244 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 938 million yuan [1] - Specific banks like Minsheng Bank and Huaxia Bank had mixed capital flows, with Minsheng Bank seeing a net inflow of 107 million yuan from institutional investors [1] - The overall trading volume for the banking sector was significant, with China Merchants Bank recording a trading volume of 216.68 million shares [1]