Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.2 to 42.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135%, which is above expectations [8] - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110% to 113%, driven by the increase in the fair value of financial assets [8] - The company achieved a record high net profit per vehicle of 103,600 yuan in Q4 2024, with sales reaching 15,572 units, the highest since 2020, benefiting from economies of scale and optimized sales structure [8] - The company has increased its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 36.5 billion yuan and 42.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 49.9 billion yuan [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 21.799 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 36.481 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.90% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 759.14 million yuan, expected to rise to 4.062 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 123.54% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.83 yuan in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 15.41 [1] - The company's total assets are expected to reach 35.346 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.12% [9]

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 to be between 3.82 billion and 4.27 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135%[3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 3.18 billion and 3.61 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 125% to 155%[4]. - In 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 1.82 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.41 billion CNY after deducting non-recurring gains and losses[6]. - The performance forecast data is preliminary and has not been audited by registered accountants[4]. - Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks as the final financial data will be disclosed in the official 2024 annual report[9]. Sales Performance - The company sold a total of 46,918 buses in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.48%[7]. - Export sales reached 14,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.73%, while domestic sales were 32,918 units, up 24.91%[7]. - The growth in overseas sales is attributed to the increasing competitiveness of Chinese bus products in the international market[7]. - The domestic market is benefiting from the recovery of the tourism sector and policies promoting the replacement of old buses with new energy buses[7]. Non-Recurring Gains - The increase in non-recurring gains is due to the appreciation of certain financial assets held by the company[7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in sales, with December sales of 8,615 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 130.6%. For the entire year of 2024, total sales reached 46,918 units, up 28.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The domestic market is experiencing continuous growth in seated buses, while the overseas market is benefiting from a globalization and high-end strategy, enhancing profitability through exports. The decline in battery costs, combined with economies of scale, supports the company's ongoing performance improvement [2][4]. - The company has slowed down capital expenditures, ensuring sufficient cash flow to support high dividends. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company distributed a total of 1.11 billion yuan in dividends, with a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% and a dividend yield of 1.8% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2024, the company sold 8,615 buses, with a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 130.6%. The sales of medium and large buses were 7,135 units, up 78.0% year-on-year and 160.0% month-on-month. The total sales for 2024 reached 46,918 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market is seeing a significant increase in seated buses, driven by effective policies such as trade-in programs. The fourth quarter has entered a peak period for bus procurement, with notable orders for electric buses [2][4]. - The company is expanding its direct sales and service model, enhancing service quality and efficiency. It ranked first in customer satisfaction for bus brands in 2024 and plans to open 56 direct service centers and 25 direct parts warehouses [2][4]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.51 billion yuan, 4.21 billion yuan, and 5.02 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.6X, 14.7X, and 12.3X [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 32.00, indicating an expected return exceeding market expectations by more than 6% over the next 12 months [5][24]. Core Insights - Yutong Bus anticipates a nearly 10% increase in export sales for 2025, with slight growth in the domestic market, supported by the vehicle replacement policy [1][2]. - The company expects favorable profit margins for Q4 2024 and the entirety of 2025 due to scale effects and improved product structure [1]. - Yutong Bus maintains its dividend strategy due to strong cash flow performance, with no changes to its dividend payout ratio and capital expenditure guidance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Export Market Outlook - Yutong Bus projects to export over 15,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% from 14,000 units in 2024, with faster growth expected in the new energy bus segment [2]. - The company estimates its reachable overseas market capacity at 80,000 to 100,000 units, primarily in the mid-to-high-end market where competition is relatively mild [2]. Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic bus market is expected to grow due to the enhancement of the vehicle replacement policy, although growth in the tourism bus segment may slow down [2]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The target price of RMB 32 is based on a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 6.5%, implying a projected P/E ratio of 16 times for 2025 [4]. - Revenue projections show a significant increase from RMB 27,042 million in 2023 to RMB 41,935 million in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 1,817 million in 2023 to RMB 4,347 million in 2025 [7]. Investor Sentiment - Recent investor feedback indicates a divergence in opinions, with some investors taking profits while others remain optimistic about the company's performance and cash dividends for 2024 and 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the high demand in December continues, with expectations for production and sales in 2024 to exceed forecasts [1] - The company experienced significant growth in production and sales in December, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacements and a peak in domestic and international deliveries [8] - The report highlights a strong performance in the sales of medium, large, and light buses, with December sales showing substantial year-on-year and month-on-month increases [8] - The new energy bus delivery volume reached a record high in December, showcasing the company's competitive strength in the new energy vehicle market [8] - The revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards due to better-than-expected sales performance [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 34.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 28.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.55 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 95.58% [1] - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.61 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.21 times [1] - For 2025 and 2026, the revenue is projected to be 41.45 billion yuan and 49.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.12 billion yuan and 4.97 billion yuan [1][8]

Key Points Industry/Company - **Industry**: Bus manufacturing industry - **Company**:宇通客车 (Yutong Bus) Core Views and Arguments - **Investment Recommendation**: The analyst emphasizes the opportunity in宇通客车's third round of growth, suggesting investors should not miss out on this round if they missed the previous two rounds in 2023 and 2024 [1]. - **Stock Selection**: The analyst favors companies with a宇通客车-style dividend growth, particularly in the first two months of the first quarter due to the pre-Chinese New Year rush [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: The key to宇通客车's investment is to judge annual sales, performance, and dividends. The analyst believes the core driver is 2024's sales and economic performance [2]. - **Revenue and Valuation**: The analyst expects the company's revenue to break through 50 billion and reach 80 billion, with valuation to be further clarified by the company's performance forecast, dividend guidance, and shareholder meetings in the first quarter [3]. - **Sales Data**:宇通客车 achieved a total sales volume of 86,000 units in December, a new high since 2020, with exports reaching 2,600 units, exceeding expectations, especially with 800 units being new energy exports [4]. - **Export Sales Structure**:宇通客车's export sales structure has improved significantly, with Europe accounting for a significant portion of the exports and profits, driven by the strong performance of new energy exports [6]. - **Profit Expectations**: The analyst has updated the profit forecast to over 3.5 billion for 2024, with Q4 expected to be around 1.2 billion. The 2025 profit forecast is conservatively set at 4.2 billion [7]. - **Export Outlook**: The analyst expects the export volume to reach 16,000 to 18,000 units in 2025, with new energy exports expected to exceed 3,600 units [8]. - **Performance and Valuation Switch**:宇通客车 is entering a period of intense catalysts, similar to previous growth cycles. The analyst believes the company's performance and stock price growth are driven by both earnings and sales volume verification [10]. - **Historical Performance**:宇通客车 has consistently achieved sales targets, with only one exception during the pandemic. The analyst emphasizes the industry's predictability and the reliability of the company's guidance [13]. Other Important Points - **Dividend Expectations**: The analyst expects the company to provide a more reasonable dividend forecast after the official guidance from the company [12]. - **Industry Predictability**: The analyst compares the bus manufacturing industry's predictability to that of the city bus industry, emphasizing the importance of the company's guidance and its impact on stock prices [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.24 CNY per share [78][96] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the large and medium-sized bus market, with a market share of 36.1% in 2023, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [80][63] - The company's new energy bus sales accounted for 40.7% of total sales in 2018, up from 12.1% in 2014 [80][69] - The company's export business has been growing rapidly, with export sales increasing by 78.9% in 2023, accounting for 27.9% of total sales [107][109] - The company's profitability has improved significantly, with net profit increasing by 131.49% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [8][96] Industry Overview - The new energy bus industry has seen strong growth, with cumulative sales of 6-meter and above new energy buses reaching 39,400 units from January to November 2024, up 22.9% year-on-year [1] - The industry is benefiting from policy support, including subsidies for new energy city buses and battery replacements, with subsidies of up to 80,000 CNY per vehicle [72] - The export market for buses has also been growing, with industry exports reaching 55,000 units from January to November 2024, up 38.7% year-on-year [93] Company Performance - The company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.075 billion CNY, up 27.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.432 billion CNY, up 131.49% year-on-year [8] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 12.32%, or 23.9% after adjusting for accounting standards, with overseas business gross margin significantly higher at 31.7% compared to 23% for domestic business [12][13] - The company's operating cash flow has been strong, with net operating cash flow reaching 4.717 billion CNY in 2023, up 45% year-on-year [17] Export Business - The company's export business has been a key growth driver, with export sales reaching 10,200 units in 2023, up 78.9% year-on-year, and accounting for 27.9% of total sales [107][109] - The company's export ASP is nearly double the domestic ASP, contributing to improved profitability [8] - The company has achieved significant export milestones, including the largest single delivery of new energy buses to Chile (214 units) and the largest batch of new energy buses to Europe (250 units to Greece) [6] New Energy and Hydrogen Strategy - The company is actively exploring hydrogen fuel cell solutions, with its fuel cell system platform offering advantages such as low hydrogen consumption (4.43kg/100km for 12-meter buses), long lifespan (11,062 hours with 1.8% decay), and good low-temperature performance [1] - The company has been involved in hydrogen fuel cell bus demonstrations in Zhengzhou, with 423 hydrogen fuel cell buses in operation as of November 2023 [1] - The company's hydrogen fuel cell bus sales are expected to grow significantly, with a target of 5,000 units by 2025 and 20,000 units by 2030 [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 34.424 billion CNY in 2024, up 27.3% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.246 billion CNY, up 78.65% year-on-year [96] - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 46.521 billion CNY by 2026, with net profit reaching 5.022 billion CNY [96] - The company's EPS is expected to be 1.47 CNY in 2024, 1.88 CNY in 2025, and 2.27 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 17.90x, 13.96x, and 11.57x respectively [96]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses a company in the high-end vehicle manufacturing industry, particularly focusing on electric and intelligent vehicle technologies. The company has established a strong competitive position in Western markets through significant R&D investments, leading to higher selling prices compared to peers [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **High-End Strategy Success**: The company's high-end strategy is deemed successful, especially in export markets where average selling prices are significantly above industry levels. For instance, the average selling price of BYD's products in Europe has reached over 4.4 million RMB, while Yutong's average is around 3.3 million RMB, compared to Yutong's overall new energy export average of approximately 2.34 million RMB [1][2]. 2. **Cost Control Advantages**: The company employs an accelerated depreciation method, specifically the double declining balance method, resulting in a high annual depreciation rate of 9.7% to 19.4%. This approach, combined with stable fixed asset investments, enhances cost control and profitability [1][2]. 3. **Export Price Trends**: The company has seen a significant increase in export prices, with new energy product export prices exceeding 2.3 million RMB, which is higher than the industry average of 1.6 million RMB. The potential for further price increases is anticipated as Yutong's export volume in Europe grows [1][2]. 4. **Acquisition Impact**: The acquisition of a parts supplier, Jindai, has led to improved operational synergies, reducing procurement costs and logistics expenses, thereby enhancing overall profitability. Jindai had previously demonstrated strong profitability with gross margins above 26% and net margins between 13% to 15% [3]. 5. **Labor Cost Advantages**: The company benefits from lower labor costs in Henan province, which is advantageous for a labor-intensive industry like bus manufacturing. This geographic advantage helps in maintaining competitive pricing and reducing operational costs [3]. 6. **Dividend Policy**: The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a current dividend yield exceeding 8%. This is supported by increasing profits and low capital expenditures, making it an attractive option for investors seeking dividend income [4]. 7. **Profit Forecasts**: Short-term profit forecasts indicate a projected profit of approximately 3.4 billion RMB for the current year, increasing to around 4.2 billion RMB next year, and reaching 4.8 to 5 billion RMB by 2026. This reflects a strong growth trajectory, particularly in the context of new energy vehicle demand [4]. 8. **Market Positioning**: The company is positioned as a leading global player in new energy technology, expected to benefit from ongoing industry growth and policy support for electric vehicles. The combination of dividend yield and growth potential is highlighted as a compelling investment opportunity [4]. Other Important Insights - The company has implemented stock incentive plans for over 1,000 key personnel, indicating a commitment to aligning employee interests with company performance [3]. - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the timing for investment in Yutong, suggesting that the company is well-positioned for future stock price appreciation [4].

证券代码:600066 证券简称：宇通客车 编号：临 2024-059 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 宇通客车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会于2024 年12月19日收到财务总监吴屹伦先生的辞职报告书，吴屹伦先生 因个人原因申请辞去公司财务总监职务，辞职报告书自送达董事 会之日起生效。公司董事会对吴屹伦先生在任职期间为公司所做 的工作表示衷心感谢。 李盼盼先生简历后附。 宇通客车股份有限公司 2024 年 12 月 20 日，公司召开董事会审计委员会 2024 年第 五次会议和董事会提名委员会 2024 年第二次会议，审议通过了 《关于聘任财务负责人的议案》；同日，公司召开第十一届董事 会第九次会议，同意聘任李盼盼先生兼任公司财务负责人，任期 与本届董事会一致。 特此公告。 宇通客车股份有限公司董事会 二零二四年十二月二十日 附简历： 李盼盼 男，1985 年出生，本科学历。2008 年毕业于湖南 大学车辆工程专业，同年 7 月进入公司，历任公司公交产品开发 经理、质量保证部副部长、质量总监兼质量保证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [3][6][15]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in sales, with November sales increasing year-on-year by 39.6% and month-on-month by 31.1% for large buses, and 13.7% and 16.0% for medium buses, respectively [3][6]. - The demand for new energy buses is expected to rise due to policy incentives, with an average subsidy of 60,000 yuan per vehicle for replacing old buses and 80,000 yuan for new energy city buses [3][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the new energy bus sector, with a market share of 14.5% in exports and a total of 8,844 new energy buses sold from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.0% [3][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - The closing price of the company is 23.46 yuan, with a market capitalization of 51.939 billion yuan [3]. - The company achieved a total bus sales volume of 38,303 units from January to November, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4% [3]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 34.424 billion yuan, 39.864 billion yuan, and 46.521 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.47 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 2.25 yuan [6][7]. - The expected PE ratios for the same years are 15.71, 12.32, and 10.23, respectively [6][7]. Sales Performance - The company reported a significant increase in light bus sales, with a month-on-month growth of 254.3% in November [3]. - The total sales of buses in November reached 4,665 units, with a notable increase in light bus exports, including a large order of 500 units to Latin America [3]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand growth in the bus industry driven by the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the ongoing recovery of the tourism sector [3][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upward cycle in the industry, with a strong focus on expanding its overseas market presence [3][6].