Group 1 - The metal recycling sector saw an increase of 2.08%, ranking fifth among concept sectors, with 50 stocks rising, including Nanmin Group, Jinyuan Co., and Huahong Technology hitting the daily limit [1][2] - Notable gainers in the sector included Huaxin Environmental Protection, Kaida Catalysis, and Northern Rare Earth, which rose by 15.05%, 10.67%, and 9.87% respectively [1][2] - The sector experienced a net inflow of 2.542 billion yuan from main funds, with 26 stocks receiving net inflows, and 9 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth led the net inflow with 2.109 billion yuan, followed by Huahong Technology, Jinyuan Co., and Fulongma with net inflows of 150.21 million yuan, 114 million yuan, and 81.686 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The top three stocks by net inflow ratio were Jinyuan Co. at 45.14%, Nanmin Group at 31.26%, and High Energy Environment at 16.33% [3][4] - The overall performance of the metal recycling sector was supported by significant trading volumes, with Northern Rare Earth achieving a turnover rate of 12.69% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The metal industry experienced a significant increase, with a rise of 2.10% on July 18, driven by strong capital inflow, particularly in the rare earth sector [2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.50% on July 18, with 22 out of 28 sectors showing gains, led by the metal and basic chemical industries, which increased by 2.10% and 1.36% respectively [2]. - The electronic and media sectors faced declines, with drops of 0.49% and 0.98% respectively [2]. Capital Flow - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets was 229.87 billion yuan, with 10 sectors experiencing net inflows [2]. - The metal industry had the highest net capital inflow of 37.94 billion yuan, while the non-bank financial sector saw a modest inflow of 8.97 billion yuan [2]. Individual Stock Performance in Metal Industry - Out of 137 stocks in the metal sector, 107 stocks rose, with 5 hitting the daily limit up [3]. - The top three stocks with the highest net capital inflow were: - Northern Rare Earth: 2.10 billion yuan [3] - Dongfang Zircon: 434 million yuan [3] - Shengxin Lithium Energy: 327 million yuan [3]. - The stocks with the highest net outflow included: - Mingtai Aluminum: 115 million yuan [3] - Haixing Shares: 87 million yuan [3] - Zhongkuang Resources: 84 million yuan [3]. Capital Inflow and Outflow Rankings - The top stocks by capital inflow included: - Northern Rare Earth: 9.87% increase, 210.89 million yuan inflow [4] - Dongfang Zircon: 10.02% increase, 43.38 million yuan inflow [4] - Shengxin Lithium Energy: 10.00% increase, 32.65 million yuan inflow [4]. - The top stocks by capital outflow included: - Mingtai Aluminum: 0.81% increase, 115.29 million yuan outflow [6] - Haixing Shares: 10.03% increase, 87.20 million yuan outflow [6] - Zhongkuang Resources: 4.15% increase, 84.52 million yuan outflow [6].

Core Viewpoint - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 194.62 billion, with Northern Rare Earth and Xinyi Technology leading in individual stock trading volume. The non-ferrous metals sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the electronic sector experienced significant outflows [1][4][5]. Trading Volume Summary - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 92.08 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect was 102.54 billion [1]. - The top traded stocks in the Shanghai Stock Connect included Northern Rare Earth (1st, 1.343 billion), Guizhou Moutai (2nd, 1.329 billion), and Shanxi Fenjiu (3rd, 1.107 billion) [2]. - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Xinyi Technology topped the list (1st, 2.367 billion), followed by Zhongji Xuchuang (2nd, 2.246 billion) and CATL (3rd, 1.791 billion) [3]. Sector Performance Summary - The non-ferrous metals sector led with a net inflow of 3.873 billion, followed by small metals (0.806 billion) and diversified finance (0.798 billion) [4]. - The electronic sector had the highest net outflow of 8.962 billion, followed by the computer sector (5.595 billion) and transportation equipment (3.374 billion) [5]. Individual Stock Fund Flow Summary - The top stocks with net inflows included Northern Rare Earth (2.028 billion), Zhongyou Capital (1.047 billion), and Wanhua Chemical (0.660 billion) [6]. - The stocks with the highest net outflows were Changshan Beiming (-1.307 billion), Shengzuo Technology (-1.094 billion), and Hengbao Co., Ltd. (-0.736 billion) [7]. ETF Trading Summary - The top ETF by trading volume was the Hong Kong Securities ETF (1.397 billion), followed by the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (0.877 billion) [8]. - The ETF with the highest growth in trading volume was the Wine ETF (1.10189 billion, up 141.46%), followed by the Rare Earth ETF (0.33435 billion, up 113%) [9]. Futures Position Summary - In the futures market, the IH contract saw a net increase in long positions of 3,760 contracts, while the IF contract had an increase of 2,660 contracts [10]. Institutional Activity Summary - Institutional buying was notable in Northern Rare Earth (0.5423 billion) and Lisheng Pharmaceutical (0.630 billion) [11]. - Significant selling was observed in Spring Wind Power (-2.77 billion) and Mankun Technology (-0.5819 billion) [12]. Retail and Quantitative Activity Summary - Retail investors showed increased activity, with notable buying in Maigemi Te (over 2.4 billion) and selling in Hengbao Co., Ltd. (-1.16 billion) [14][15].

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

7月18日连板股分析：连板股晋级率持续下降 稀土永磁板块全线走强 今日共45股涨停，连板股总数13只，其中三连板及以上个股4只，上一交易日共16只连板股，连板股晋级率25%（不含ST股、退市股）。个股方面，虽然三 大指数集体上涨，创业板指盘中创年内新高，但短线情绪降温，连板股晋级率持续下降，除上纬新材外，昨日连板股中仅三只晋级，其中兰生股份、海星股 份盘中均多次开板，显示分歧加剧。板块方面，稀土永磁板块全线走强，北方稀土大涨9.87%成交额超147亿列两市第一，华宏科技反包涨停走出6天5板， 东方锆业、中色股份等涨停；锂电板块盘中异动，锂矿、盐湖提锂等上游分支领涨，久吾高科20CM涨停，金圆股份、国机通用、盛新锂能涨停。 | 连板数 | 晋级率 | | 2025-7-18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7讲8 | 1/1=100% | 上纬新材 (机器人) | | | 5进6 | 1/2=50% | 兰生股份(参股券商) | | | 2进3 | 2/11=18% | 天宸股份 (光伏+医院) | | | 1讲2 | 9/42=21% | 北化股份 (军工) | | | | | 海 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new closing high for the year, while the ChiNext Index hit a new high before retreating. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, lithium mining, non-ferrous metals, and coal saw significant gains, while sectors like gaming, photovoltaics, CPO, and consumer electronics experienced declines [2] - The banking sector, which had declined for three consecutive days, stabilized and rebounded, contributing to the overall market performance [5] Investment Trends - Institutional funds showed consistent large-scale buying, while funds from major players, retail investors, and others exhibited noticeable outflows, with a slight return of funds at the end of the trading day [8] - The report from Xiangcai Securities suggests that the market will maintain a "slow bull" trend, with long-term funds focusing on dividend-related sectors such as banking and insurance [13] Rare Earth Sector Insights - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced notable activity, driven by three main positive factors: 1. The National Security Department's announcement to cut illegal export channels for rare earth-related items, enhancing resource and national security [17] 2. The discovery of a new rare earth mineral named "Ned Yellow River" in Inner Mongolia [18] 3. The increasing demand for rare earths in humanoid robots, which is a significant application area [19] - Companies in the rare earth sector, such as Huahong Technology and Northern Rare Earth, reported substantial profit increases, with Northern Rare Earth expecting a net profit growth of 1883% to 2015% year-on-year for the first half of the year [19]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed a collective rise on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up 0.5%, indicating a positive market sentiment despite mixed performances across sectors [1]. Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - A total of 2600 stocks rose while over 2500 stocks fell, reflecting a divergence in stock performance [1]. Sector Analysis - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced significant gains, with notable stocks such as Jiuwu Gaoke hitting a 20% limit up, and Huaxin Environmental Protection rising over 15% [3][4]. - The lithium extraction sector also saw a rise of 3.30%, while the gaming sector faced declines, with stocks like Ice River Network dropping over 4% [4][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector surged in the afternoon, with stocks like Borui Pharmaceutical increasing over 14% [5]. Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and computers, while there was a net outflow from electronics, biomedicine, and light manufacturing sectors [8]. - Specific stocks that attracted significant net inflows included Northern Rare Earth (20.63 billion yuan), China National Petroleum Capital (10.4 billion yuan), and Wanhua Chemical (6.89 billion yuan) [9]. - Conversely, stocks like Changshan Beiming, Shenghong Technology, and Hengbao shares faced substantial net outflows of 11.87 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 8.08 billion yuan respectively [10]. Institutional Insights - Jianghai Securities noted that market hotspots are dispersed, potentially leading to a structural market trend, while the overall index uptrend remains intact despite significant individual stock performance variations [12]. - CITIC Securities expressed optimism regarding investment opportunities in the non-bank sector, citing macroeconomic stabilization and liquidity release as positive factors for market activity [12].

Group 1 - The small metal sector has shown significant activity, with a collective increase of over 3% in stock prices, particularly for companies like Dongfang Zirconium and Haotong Technology, which saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - Supply constraints are evident due to domestic export quota management for antimony, bismuth, germanium, and tungsten, alongside transportation disruptions in Myanmar, leading to a global supply gap exceeding 30% [1] - Demand for small metals is rising, driven by applications in new energy vehicles, energy storage, military high-temperature alloys, and semiconductor packaging materials, with a notable increase in consumption of cobalt and nickel sulfate [1] Group 2 - Small metals have been classified as "strategic resources" by authorities, with export controls on gallium and germanium in 2024 and additional controls on tungsten, bismuth, and antimony in 2025, leading to increased scarcity premiums [1] - Leading companies are expected to report substantial profit growth, with Northern Rare Earth projected to see a more than 18-fold increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [1] - Securities firms express optimism, highlighting that the relaxation of export controls could lead to a convergence of domestic and international prices, benefiting the sector through both valuation and profit increases [2][3] Group 3 - Dongfang Zirconium specializes in the research, production, and sales of zirconium series products, including zirconium silicate and zirconium oxide [2] - Haotong Technology focuses on precious metal recovery and related products, with key offerings including platinum, palladium, and rhodium [2] - Shenghe Resources produces rare earth concentrates and various rare earth products, contributing to the small metal supply chain [3] Group 4 - Guiyan Platinum's product range includes various precious metal compounds such as platinum, palladium, and rhodium [3] - Xianglu Tungsten's main products consist of tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, and tungsten carbide [3] - Tin Industry Co. engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of tin, zinc, copper, and indium, offering a wide array of products [3] Group 5 - Dongfang Tantalum is involved in the research, production, and sales of rare metals like tantalum and niobium [4] - Baotai Co. is recognized as China's largest specialized producer of titanium-based rare metal materials, holding over 40% market share [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound today, with all three major indices closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34%. The total trading volume reached 1.571 trillion, an increase of 31.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance 1. Lithium Mining Surge - The lithium mining sector saw significant gains due to three main factors: 1. Cangge Mining announced that its potassium fertilizer company received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development, impacting lithium supply [2] 2. The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose over 4%, surpassing 70,000 yuan [2] 3. The global demand for lithium, driven by the booming electric vehicle industry and the rapid development of energy storage, continues to grow [2] 2. Rare Earths Rally - The rare earth sector experienced a surge due to two key reasons: 1. Several rare earth permanent magnet companies reported significant profit increases, with Huahong Technology expecting a net profit growth of 3047%-3722% year-on-year, and Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit increase of 1883%-2015% [3] 2. A new rare earth mineral named "Neodymium Yellow River" was discovered in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to positively impact the rare earth sector [3] 3. Coal and Nonferrous Metals Rise - The coal and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial increases due to: 1. High summer temperatures leading to increased electricity demand, boosting coal consumption for thermal power generation [4] 2. The CCTD reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region rose again, with a week-on-week increase of 14, 19, and 18 yuan per ton [5] 3. Rainfall affecting coal production, with a 3.6% decrease in output and a 2.6% reduction in total inventory week-on-week [5] 4. Protests at overseas mines exacerbating resource supply concerns, contributing to price increases in metals like tin and zinc [5] 4. AI Sector Activity - The AI sector was active today, primarily due to OpenAI's technical live stream showcasing the new ChatGPT agent, which possesses autonomous thinking and action capabilities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth permanent magnet sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases and ETFs tracking rare earth indices also seeing gains [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has seen notable stock price increases, with Jiuwu Gaoke rising nearly 12%, and companies like Dongfang Zhaoye, Huahong Technology, and Zhongse Co. reaching their daily limit [1]. - Several rare earth ETFs have also performed well, with gains of 3.82% for the Guangfa Rare Metal ETF and 3.73% for the E Fund Rare Earth ETF [1][3]. Group 2: Price Expectations and Market Dynamics - Northern Rare Earth expressed optimism regarding future rare earth prices, attributing price movements to supply-demand dynamics and recent policy impacts [5]. - The rare earth sector has seen a cumulative increase of over 25% since May 28, driven by easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. and positive earnings expectations for the sector [5][6]. Group 3: Export Regulations and Price Impact - Recent developments indicate a potential easing of export controls on rare earths, with China approving export licenses for several manufacturers, which is expected to positively influence market prices [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the relaxation of export controls could lead to a significant increase in rare earth prices, benefiting companies in the sector [6][7]. Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [6]. - Companies in the rare earth permanent magnet industry, such as Huahong Technology, are expected to report significant profit increases, with projections of up to 3722% year-on-year growth [7].