ZMNY(600163)
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公用事业行业跟踪周报:9月江苏电价不及预期,关注新能源对火电发电量的挤占影响-20250901
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-01 08:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The weighted average price of electricity in Jiangsu for September 2025 was 319.48 RMB/MWh, which is lower than market expectations. The total electricity traded was 8.111 billion kWh, with various sources contributing different amounts and prices [4]. - The report highlights a continued increase in electricity demand, with a 3.7% year-on-year growth in total electricity consumption for the first half of 2025 [15]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in green energy, photovoltaic assets, charging station assets, thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, emphasizing the potential for value reassessment in these areas [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index decreased by 0.67% from August 25 to August 29, 2025, underperforming compared to the ChiNext index [9]. - The top five gainers included Zhaoxin Co. (+33.6%) and Tianlun Gas (+13.2%), while the top five losers included ST Shengda (-9.5%) and Jiawei New Energy (-7.9%) [13]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in H1 2025 reached 4.84 trillion kWh, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase [15]. - The growth rates for different sectors were: primary industry (+8.7%), secondary industry (+2.4%), tertiary industry (+7.1%), and urban-rural residential consumption (+4.1%) [15]. 2.2. Power Generation - Total power generation in H1 2025 was 4.54 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. However, thermal and hydropower generation saw declines of 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively [23]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in August 2025 was 388 RMB/MWh, down 2% year-on-year but up 1.3% month-on-month [41]. 2.4. Thermal Power - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 690 RMB/ton as of August 29, 2025, a decrease of 17.76% year-on-year [46]. - The cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.47 billion kW, with an increase of 4.7% year-on-year [49]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 162.19 meters, which is normal compared to previous years. Inflow and outflow rates increased by 35.48% and 47.46% year-on-year, respectively [55]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a positive trend in the development of nuclear power [67]. 2.7. Green Energy - New installations of wind and solar power in H1 2025 increased by 99% and 107% year-on-year, respectively [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Changjiang Electric for high dividend yield assets, and suggests monitoring companies involved in green energy and charging stations for potential value reassessment [4].
中闽能源(600163):来风偏弱限制单季业绩,着眼成长无惧短期波动
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-31 10:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's performance in the second quarter was impacted by weaker wind conditions in Fujian and increased power restriction rates in regions where its external units are located, leading to a year-on-year decrease in power generation by 18.08% [2][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 280 million yuan in the second quarter, a decrease of 20.58% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 63 million yuan, down 51.11% year-on-year [2][6]. - Despite the short-term performance pressure, the company is focused on long-term growth opportunities, including potential asset injections from the group and ongoing project developments [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 794 million yuan, a decrease of 2.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 314 million yuan, down 8.07% year-on-year [6]. - The total power generation for the first half was 1.405 billion kWh, a slight decrease of 0.89% year-on-year [12]. Operational Challenges - The second quarter saw a significant drop in power generation, with Fujian's wind power output at 445 million kWh, down 18.76% year-on-year, and external units in Heilongjiang experiencing a 19.59% decrease [12]. - The company's operating costs increased by 4.27% year-on-year in the second quarter, totaling 174 million yuan, which further pressured profit margins [12]. Growth Prospects - The company is expected to benefit from future asset injections, including projects like Yongtai Pumped Storage and various offshore wind assets, which could enhance earnings per share [12]. - The company is actively pursuing both internal development and quality project acquisitions, indicating significant growth potential in the coming years [12].
中闽能源(600163):福建风电业绩稳定 拟投资建设福建海风长乐B
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 13:21
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased tax expenses and reduced electricity generation in certain regions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 794 million yuan, a decrease of 2.95% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 314 million yuan, down 8.07% year-on-year [1]. - The company's net profit was impacted by a 64.31% increase in income tax expenses, totaling 97 million yuan, due to full taxation on some subsidiaries [1]. Electricity Generation - The total electricity generation for H1 2025 was 1.37 billion kWh, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, with specific regional performances varying significantly [2]. - Fujian wind power generation increased by 2.7% year-on-year to 1.25 billion kWh, while other regions like Heilongjiang and Xinjiang saw significant declines in generation [2]. Project Investments - The company approved an investment in the Changle B District offshore wind farm project, with a total installed capacity of 114 MW and an estimated total investment of 1.177 billion yuan [3]. - The project is expected to generate approximately 456.542 GWh of electricity annually, contributing to the company's growth in offshore wind capacity [3]. Asset Management - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a controlled installed capacity of 957,300 kW, with wind power accounting for 907,300 kW, remaining stable year-on-year [4]. - The company is advancing several offshore wind and solar projects in Fujian and is in discussions for potential asset injections from its controlling shareholder [4]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 920 million, 1 billion, and 1.04 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2, 10.3, and 9.9 times [4].
中闽能源(600163):电量下降及所得税增加影响业绩,海上风电项目建设稳步推进
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 12:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Views - The company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company both decreased year-on-year, with operating revenue of 794 million yuan (-2.95%) and net profit of 314 million yuan (-8.07%) in the first half of 2025. The decline in revenue is primarily due to increased power curtailment rates in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang, as well as the expiration of certain project price subsidies [1][8]. - The company is actively advancing offshore wind power projects in Fujian Province, with the Changle B District offshore wind farm project starting construction in August 2025, expected to add 114 MW of installed capacity [2][22]. - Due to increased income tax, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 685 million yuan, 739 million yuan, and 813 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 8.0%, and 10.2% [3][24]. Financial Performance Summary - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported a significant decline in power generation and grid-connected power, with generation at 507 million kWh (-18.08%) and grid-connected power at 490 million kWh (-18.30%) [2][15]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 57.51%, down 1.15 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in power generation [17]. - The return on equity (ROE) fell to 4.56%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, while operating cash flow decreased by 13.88% year-on-year [20][21]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 1.806 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.7% compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to be 685 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.36 yuan [4][26]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a PE ratio of 14.6 for 2025, with a projected decline in the PE ratio over the next few years [4][26]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its asset base by actively pursuing offshore wind power resources and projects in both Fujian and other regions with abundant renewable energy resources [2][22]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence and asset scale by accelerating project implementation and resource allocation in the offshore wind sector [22].
中闽能源(600163):2025年半年报点评:福建风电业绩稳定,拟投资建设福建海风长乐B
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-29 11:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company announced its 2025 semi-annual report, indicating stable performance in Fujian's wind power sector and plans to invest in the construction of the Changle B offshore wind farm [2] - The company's total revenue for 2025H1 was 794 million yuan, a decrease of 2.95% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 314 million yuan, down 8.07% year-on-year [8] - The company is expanding its offshore wind power capacity with a new project that has an estimated total investment of 1.177 billion yuan and is expected to generate approximately 456.542 GWh of annual electricity [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to increase from 1,741 million yuan in 2024 to 2,444 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.36% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 651 million yuan in 2024 to 922.84 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 41.72% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.34 yuan in 2024 to 0.48 yuan in 2025 [1] Project and Market Insights - The company reported a slight increase in wind power generation in Fujian, with a total of 1.25 billion kWh generated in 2025H1, up 2.7% year-on-year [8] - The company is actively pursuing new projects and asset injections from its controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance its operational capacity and profitability [8]
中闽能源(600163):业绩受限电及所得税影响,积极推进新海风项目
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-29 08:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance is constrained by power restrictions and increased income tax expenses, while actively advancing the new offshore wind project [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the scarcity of quality wind resources and the long-term certainty of project development and asset injection [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 1,732 million, 1,741 million, 1,769 million, 1,808 million, and 1,985 million respectively, with growth rates of -3.3%, 0.5%, 1.6%, 2.2%, and 9.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 678 million, 651 million, 694 million, 723 million, and 804 million from 2023A to 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.9%, -4.0%, 6.6%, 4.1%, and 11.2% [1] - The company's latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.36, 0.34, 0.36, 0.38, and 0.42 from 2023A to 2027E [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 14.8 in 2023A to 12.5 in 2027E [1] Operational Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 794 million, a decrease of 2.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 314 million, down 8.07% year-on-year [2] - The company's total power generation in the first half of 2025 was 1.405 billion kWh, a slight decrease of 0.89% year-on-year, with a notable decline in certain regions due to power restrictions [2] - The company plans to invest 1.177 billion to construct the Chang Le B District offshore wind farm project, with an expected annual grid-connected power generation of approximately 456.542 GWh [3]
中闽能源(600163):2025 年中报点评:限电及来风偏弱导致25H1业绩承压,看好海风远期成长弹性
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-29 07:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][22]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure due to power restrictions and weak wind conditions, but there is optimism regarding the long-term growth potential of offshore wind projects [6]. - The report highlights the importance of upcoming offshore wind project allocations and the potential for asset injections to enhance future performance [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies promoting marine economic development and the growth of offshore wind energy [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,741 million in 2024 to 2,190 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 651 million in 2024 to 826 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 11.4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.34 in 2024 to 0.43 in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 15 to 12 over the same period [2]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 314 million, a decrease of 8.07% year-on-year, with total revenue of 794 million, down 2.95% [6]. - The total power generation in the first half of 2025 was 14.05 billion kWh, a decline of 0.89% year-on-year, with significant drops in certain project outputs [6]. - The company’s offshore wind farms showed higher utilization hours compared to the national average, indicating operational efficiency [6]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a strong geographical advantage and is well-positioned to leverage good wind resources and support from its parent company [6]. - The report anticipates that if the company secures new offshore wind resources, it will significantly bolster its growth prospects [6]. - The offshore wind sector is identified as a key development area for the upcoming five-year plan, with substantial growth potential expected [6].
中闽能源(600163):限电及来风偏弱导致25H1业绩承压 看好海风远期成长弹性
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 06:26
Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 314 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.07% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 63 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 51.11% [1] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 794 million yuan, down 2.95% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was 280 million yuan, a decrease of 20.58% [1] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 57.51%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points year-on-year; Q2 gross margin was 37.98%, down 14.78 percentage points year-on-year [1] Operational Data - Total power generation in the first half of 2025 was 1.405 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.89%; grid-connected power was 1.366 billion kWh, down 0.71% [2] - Power generation by type included: Fujian wind power (1.284 billion kWh, +2.60%), Heilongjiang wind power (0.088 billion kWh, -28.91%), Heilongjiang biomass (0.024 billion kWh, -14.99%), and Xinjiang Hami photovoltaic (0.010 billion kWh, -34.95%) [2] - The utilization hours for Fujian onshore wind farms were 1,356 hours, and for offshore wind farms, 2,037 hours, both above the national average of 1,087 hours [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a controllable grid-connected installed capacity of 957,300 kW, with onshore wind, offshore wind, photovoltaic, and biomass capacities of 611,300 kW, 296,000 kW, 20,000 kW, and 30,000 kW respectively [2] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on the distribution of offshore wind projects and the realization of asset injections [3] - In 2025, there is potential for new offshore wind allocations in Fujian, which could significantly support the company's future growth [3] - The company plans to initiate asset injection procedures for the Haidian Phase III project within three months after the renewable energy subsidy audit results are confirmed [3] - The government has identified "deep-sea technology" as a key area for strategic emerging industries, indicating potential policy support for offshore wind development [3] - The offshore wind sector has significant growth potential, with only 41 GW of installed capacity as of 2024, representing just 1.2% of total capacity [3] Investment Recommendations - The company has strong regional advantages and good wind resource conditions, indicating broad future growth potential [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 700 million, 740 million, and 830 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.37, 0.39, and 0.43 yuan [4] - The company is assigned a target market value of 13.9 billion yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, with a target price of 7.3 yuan, representing a 39% upside from the current price [4]
格隆汇公告精选︱信捷电气:拟投资8亿元建设机器人智能驱控系统生产项目;中国人寿:上半年净利润为409.31亿元,同比增长6.9% 上半年取得总保费5250.88亿元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-28 11:18
Group 1: Company Announcements - Nengke Technology's AI products and services are still in the early stages of development [1] - Zhongmin Energy plans to invest 1.177 billion yuan in the construction of the Changle B District offshore wind farm project [1] - Kesi Technology won a bid for a project worth 61.7584 million yuan for hardware and software [1] - Anyang Iron and Steel is selling all shares of Yongtong Company and Yuhe Company to its controlling shareholder, Angang Group [1] - Haomuxing intends to repurchase shares worth between 18 million to 36 million yuan [1] Group 2: Performance Reports - Wuliangye reported a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan for the first half of the year, an increase of 2.28% year-on-year [2] - Transsion Holdings experienced a net profit of 1.213 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.48% year-on-year [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.533 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% year-on-year [2] - China Life Insurance achieved a net profit of 40.931 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, with total premiums of 525.088 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Shareholding Changes - Hehui Optoelectronics plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 2% [2] - Zheng Liansong, the actual controller of Zhengyu Industrial, intends to reduce his holdings by no more than 1% [2] - Wang Shuqin from Hengyin Technology plans to reduce her holdings by no more than 3% [2]
中闽能源(600163):业绩低于预期,海上风电新项目启动
HTSC· 2025-08-28 04:48
证券研究报告 中闽能源 (600163 CH) 业绩低于预期,海上风电新项目启动 2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国内地 发电 中闽能源发布半年报,1H25 实现营收 7.94 亿元(yoy-3%),归母净利 3.14 亿元(yoy-8%),扣非净利 3.02 亿元(yoy-7%)。其中 Q2 实现营收 2.80 亿元(yoy-21%,qoq-45%),归母净利 6,325 万元(yoy-51%,qoq-75%), 归母净利低于我们的预测(1.05~1.16 亿元)、主要是电价下降导致毛利率 低于预期。长乐 B 区海上风电项目完成投决,我们预计有望于 26 年底前投 运、27 年贡献利润增量。维持"买入"评级。 并网装机同比持平,来风资源影响净利表现 截至 2025 年 6 月末公司并网装机合计 95.73 万千瓦,较年初无变化。1H25 福建海上风电净利 yoy-3.5%至 2.22 亿元、福建陆上风电净利 yoy+20%至 1.55 亿元。来风大小是影响公司业绩的核心变量,1H25 公司的福建陆上/ 海上风电利用小时分别为 1,356/2,037 小时(yoy+6.6%/-1.6%),均好于国 内风电均 ...