Market Size and Forecast - The global lithium battery copper foil sales are expected to reach 1.487 million tons by 2025, driven by the growth in demand for downstream power batteries and energy storage batteries, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.1%. By 2030, the global lithium battery copper foil market size is projected to reach 4.184 million tons [2]. Price Trends and Forecast - From 2021 to 2035, the global lithium battery copper foil prices are generally expected to decline, with significant volatility. In 2025, the average price is projected to rebound to approximately 96,000 yuan per ton. The price trend from 2026 to 2027 is anticipated to show an "initial increase followed by high-level fluctuations," before entering a downward cycle. The growth factors include: 1) Increased demand from power and energy storage batteries leading to a surge in copper foil usage; 2) Rising costs of raw materials like copper and processing fees; 3) Long expansion cycles in the copper foil industry resulting in insufficient new supply [4]. 2025 Top 10 Lithium Battery Copper Foil Suppliers in China - The top 10 companies in terms of lithium battery copper foil shipments in China for 2025 are: 1. Defu Technology 2. Longdian Huaxin 3. Jiayuan Technology 4. Nord Shares 5. Huachuang New Materials 6. Zhongyi Technology 7. Tongguan Copper Foil 8. Jiangxi Copper Technology 9. Jiangxi Copper Industry 10. Far East Shares [7][8].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a preference order for the materials sector in 2026: Copper/Gold > Aluminum > Lithium > Coal > Steel [1] - The MSCI China Materials Index is expected to outperform the MSCI China Index this year due to supply disruptions or tight supply and further M&A activities [1] - Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick for the year, with continued optimism for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), China Aluminum (601600)(02600), and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Based on a positive outlook for copper, Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358) rating is upgraded to Neutral [1] - Chinese policies are seen as the main driver of commodity prices, but the execution and intensity of anti-involution policies post-Q4 2025 are expected to be milder than anticipated [1] - The effort to reduce excess capacity in the steel sector is a long-term endeavor, and without significant production cuts, steel profit margins are expected to remain low [1] Group 3 - Baosteel (600019)(600019.SH) rating is downgraded to Neutral, while Ansteel (000898)(00347) is downgraded to Underweight [1]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic for 2026, with expectations of continued price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, despite concerns about high valuations and potential risks in the market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index rising over 8% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historical high of 3369 points on January 9 [1]. - In 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Index recorded a cumulative increase of 91.67%, with leading stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper seeing price increases of 200.7% and 166% respectively [2]. - The futures market also reflected this trend, with LME copper futures prices increasing by over 40% in 2025, and LME tin and aluminum rising by 39% and 17% respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the demand for metals such as copper and aluminum will continue to rise due to increased global electricity construction and investment in power infrastructure, which is expected to outpace GDP growth [2][6]. - The electric aluminum sector is anticipated to mirror the coal market's performance from 2022 to 2024, with limited supply and high dividend yields making it attractive for value investors [3]. - The ongoing macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to create a favorable backdrop for both precious and non-ferrous metals [6]. Group 3: Institutional Activity and Caution - There has been a surge in public fund applications for non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest in the sector [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, there is a growing caution among market participants regarding high valuations, with the price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous sector rising from 2 to approximately 3.5 [6]. - Analysts recommend a balanced approach, advising against blindly chasing high valuations while recognizing the ongoing demand and investment opportunities in the sector [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - ST United (600358) has experienced a decline in stock price, closing at 5.96 yuan, down 1.65% from the previous week, with a current market capitalization of 3.009 billion yuan [1] Company Announcements - ST United has applied for an extension of up to one month to respond to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's inquiry regarding the issuance of shares to acquire 100% equity of Runtian Industrial [1] - Guolv Cultural Investment Group Co., Ltd. has also announced a delay in responding to the inquiry regarding its plan to acquire assets through share issuance and cash payment, with a similar extension of no more than one month [1]

摩根大通：将江西铜业A股评级上调至中性。 ...

Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations on January 8, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% during the session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of 53.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking the fourth consecutive day of trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.82% [1]. Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a resurgence, highlighted by the recent groundbreaking of a large liquid rocket assembly and recovery reuse base by Arrow Yuan Technology in Qiantang. This marks the establishment of China's first offshore recovery reusable rocket production base and the launch of the first stainless steel rocket super factory [2]. Commodity Market Dynamics - Experts warn that investors are now living in a new era of geopolitical risk, which has increasingly influenced commodity pricing mechanisms. The ongoing conflicts, from Ukraine to Venezuela, have impacted the prices of oil, gold, copper, and other commodities. Oxford Economics noted that geopolitical risks are becoming a persistent pricing factor rather than a temporary shock, with markets now incorporating a fixed risk premium reflecting supply chain vulnerabilities and resource nationalism [3][4]. Investment Opportunities - For those considering commodity investments, it is suggested to look into non-ferrous metal ETFs, which include top holdings such as Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum, among others. The report indicates that the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues [4][5][6]. Commercial Aerospace Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is characterized by a focus on energy technology companies linked to the growth of satellite solar cells. Perovskite solar cells, particularly flexible and ultra-thin variants, are seen as a promising alternative to traditional materials due to their lightweight, low-cost, and high conversion efficiency, aligning with the needs of large-scale low-orbit satellite constellations [10][13]. Yunnan Zinc Industry's Position - Yunnan Zinc Industry is a significant player in the indium phosphide (InP) sector, with its subsidiary, Yunnan Xinyao Semiconductor Materials, focusing on expanding production capacity to meet the growing demand in the industry. The company has reported a substantial increase in orders and revenue, particularly in the context of AI and data center applications [33][35][38].

Group 1 - The stock of ST United (600358) closed at 6.03 yuan on January 8, 2026, down 0.66% from the previous trading day, with a total market value of 3.045 billion yuan [1] - The stock opened at 6.07 yuan, reached a high of 6.09 yuan, and a low of 6.02 yuan, with a trading volume of 43.7226 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.43% [1] - The company announced that Guotour Cultural Investment Group Co., Ltd. received an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its plan to acquire 100% of Jiangxi Runtian Industrial Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, along with raising supporting funds [1] Group 2 - The company has applied for an extension to respond to the inquiry letter, with the extension period not exceeding one month, and will disclose the response document within the stipulated timeframe [1] - The transaction is subject to approval by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and registration by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1]

Core Insights - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing a significant trade deficit, with imports far exceeding exports, leading to an increasing trend in trade deficit from 2019 to 2024 [1][2]. Trade Deficit - In 2024, the total import and export value of copper smelting-related products in China reached 811.86 billion yuan, with a trade deficit expanding by 114.51 billion yuan [1]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the trade deficit was recorded at 195.81 billion yuan, indicating a continued trend of high import reliance [2]. Import Volume and Value - The import volume of copper smelting-related products in China reached 33.02 million tons in 2024, marking a 2.34% increase from 2023, with an import value of 807.29 billion yuan, which is a 14.48% increase compared to 2020 [3]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the import volume was 20.00 million tons, with an import value of 507.56 billion yuan [3]. Import Price Trends - The average import price of copper smelting-related products has shown an upward trend from 2019 to July 2025, with significant increases noted during the 2020-2021 period due to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. Export Volume and Value - The export volume of copper smelting-related products in China was 456,400 tons in 2024, with an export value of 31.60 billion yuan, reaching a peak during the observed period [7]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the export volume was 421,600 tons, with an export value of 28.92 billion yuan [7]. Export Price Trends - The average export price of copper smelting-related products has generally increased from 2019 to July 2025, although some products exhibited significant price volatility due to smaller export volumes [10].

资金流向方面，主力资金净流入4076.10万元，特大单买入3.13亿元，占比14.54%，卖出3.02亿元，占比 14.04%；大单买入5.94亿元，占比27.56%，卖出5.64亿元，占比26.17%。 江西铜业今年以来股价涨2.69%，近5个交易日涨12.24%，近20日涨34.19%，近60日涨47.71%。 资料显示，江西铜业股份有限公司位于江西省南昌市高新开发区昌东大道7666号，成立日期1997年1月 24日，上市日期2002年1月11日，公司主营业务涉及铜和黄金的采选、冶炼与加工;稀散金属的提取与加 工;硫化工以及金融、贸易等领域。主营业务收入构成为：阴极铜50.21%，铜杆线19.55%，黄金 14.50%，铜精矿、稀散及其他有色金属6.91%，白银3.21%，铜加工产品2.66%，其他产品1.65%，化工 产品(硫酸硫精矿)0.85%，其他(补充)0.46%。 1月8日，江西铜业盘中上涨2.03%，截至10:55，报56.40元/股，成交21.54亿元，换手率1.88%，总市值 1952.98亿元。 分红方面，江西铜业A股上市后累计派现235.64亿元。近三年，累计派现76.00亿元。 机构 ...

Summary of Jiangxi Copper 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK) - **Date of Call**: January 6, 2026 - **Participants**: Mr. Gong Kun, IR Manager Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Jiangxi Copper signed a long-term agreement with Antofagasta in December 2025, establishing a long-term TC/RC (Treatment Charge/Refining Charge) of **0** for 2026E, with a slight increase in recovery rate [1][2] - The company is in negotiations with other copper concentrate producers, anticipating similar TC/RC terms [2] Production and Raw Material Usage - Management expects a year-over-year decrease in the percentage of copper cathode output derived from copper concentrate in 2026E, with an increase in the use of crude copper as raw material [3] - Jiangxi Copper's improved bargaining power allows it to secure better TC/RC than the market spot price for copper concentrate [3] - There is an expectation that spot TC/RC could improve as Chinese copper smelters may reduce their consumption of copper concentrate in 2026E [3] Financial Performance and Acquisitions - The acquisition of SolGold has received approval from Chinese authorities and is pending shareholder approval, expected to be completed in the first half of 2026E [5] - The profitability of copper smelting using crude copper and copper anode has remained stable over the past two years [4] Pricing and Demand Factors - The price of sulfuric acid has reached approximately **Rmb 1,000/t** in Jiangxi since December 2025, with expectations for high prices in the short term due to strong demand, although further increases are unlikely due to government price control efforts [6] - Management anticipates mergers and acquisitions in the copper smelting industry in China, driven by government anti-involution efforts, with a slowdown in future capacity additions [7] Investment Outlook - Current share price is **HK$44.80** with a target price of **HK$39.80**, indicating an expected share price return of **-11.2%** and a total return of **-9.2%** [8] - Market capitalization is reported at **HK$155,130 million** (approximately **US$19,926 million**) [8] Risks - Potential downside risks include a slowdown in China's grid investment, a more significant than expected decline in property demand affecting copper prices, and rising mining or smelting costs [12] Additional Insights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating from analysts, reflecting confidence in its strategic positioning and market dynamics [1]