Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Sell" rating on Flat A/H, Xinyi Solar, and Tongwei, while it has a "Buy" rating on Longi [10][11][19]. Core Insights - The recent rally in share prices for Solar Glass and Poly is seen as an overreaction to supply-side policy expectations, with a noted average increase of 17% from June 30 to July 2 [1][2]. - There is an anticipated decline in demand for solar modules, with projections indicating a year-over-year decrease of 57% in China and 40% globally for the second half of 2025 [2]. - The report highlights the need for significant production cuts in the glass segment to balance supply and demand, estimating that a 30% cut is necessary given the current oversupply situation [5][6]. Summary by Key Sub-segments Poly - Poly inventory reached 140GW by the end of June, equating to four months of average demand, indicating significant oversupply [5]. - The report anticipates a 15% decline in poly prices in the second half of 2025 to 2026, driven by excess capacity [20]. Glass - A 30% production cut is deemed necessary to align supply with demand, with current monthly supply at 50GW against an average demand of 34GW [6]. - The report suggests that the industry may face prolonged margin pressure due to challenges in executing production cuts [6]. Module - Increased inventory pressure is expected to enhance the bargaining power of module manufacturers, leading to price discounts of 5%-10% on contracts for Poly and Glass [6]. - Longi is expected to maintain a relatively resilient profitability outlook due to anticipated upstream price cuts [7]. Company-Specific Insights Longi - Longi is rated "Buy" due to its potential EBITDA inflection in the second half of 2025 and superior mid-cycle return on equity (ROE) compared to peers [7][10]. - The 12-month target price for Longi is set at Rmb19.8, indicating a potential upside of 27.2% from the current price [10]. Xinyi Solar - Xinyi Solar is rated "Sell" due to a deteriorating industry landscape and structural margin pressures, with a target price of HK$1.9, reflecting a downside of 31.2% [11][12]. Flat A/H - Flat A/H is also rated "Sell," with a target price of Rmb10.3, indicating a downside of 39.1% [15][16]. Tongwei - Tongwei is rated "Sell" due to its high exposure to the Poly segment and anticipated structural margin pressures, with a target price of Rmb13, suggesting a downside of 27% [19][23].

2025 年 07 月 04 日 工业硅：情绪发酵，盘面波动放大 多晶硅：市场消息发酵，盘面波动加剧 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） Si2509成交量（手） | 8,010 | -200 | 290 | 940 | | | | | 1,196,542 -447,106 | | 108,921 | 810,987 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 380,840 | -5,521 | 59,498 | 180,647 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 35,050 | 0 | 3,335 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 482,063 | 70,477 | 257,028 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） | 76,908 | ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market development status of hydrogen production technologies, specifically ALK/PEM/AEM, and highlights innovations in key materials and hydrogen production system technologies [1][11] - It emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and international cooperation in the photovoltaic industry to achieve sustainable development [2] - The total liabilities of photovoltaic companies reached approximately 2 trillion yuan, with an overall debt-to-asset ratio of 63.24%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.65 percentage points [2] Group 2 - A ranking of photovoltaic companies by total liabilities shows that the top three companies have liabilities exceeding 1 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth in some cases, such as Tongwei Co., which saw a 41.78% increase [3][4] - The article provides a detailed list of companies with their total liabilities and year-on-year growth rates, highlighting the financial health of the industry [3][4] - The article also includes a ranking of companies by debt-to-asset ratio, with some companies showing extremely high ratios, indicating potential financial risks [7][8] Group 3 - The upcoming "2025 Renewable Energy Hydrogen Production Industry Development Forum" will focus on key materials and system technologies, discussing trends in green hydrogen project applications [11][12] - The forum will feature various sessions on the current status and development trends of renewable energy hydrogen production, including discussions on PEM and alkaline hydrogen production technologies [13][15] - Notable speakers from leading institutions and companies will present their research and innovations in hydrogen production technologies, emphasizing the industry's growth potential [29][37]

Group 1 - Supply-side changes are crucial for the photovoltaic industry's capacity clearance, and supply clearance is a decisive factor for the industry to recover in the second half of the year [1] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a collective rise in stock prices, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Shuangliang Eco-Energy hitting the daily limit on July 2 [1][4] - The cash flow of silicon material manufacturers is under pressure due to continuous losses, with the average asset-liability ratio of photovoltaic companies rising [1][4] Group 2 - Silicon material prices have shown a slight recovery due to stable supply and demand, while silicon wafer prices have declined due to weak terminal demand [2][3] - The average transaction price of multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials increased by 0.87% to 34,700 yuan/ton, while N-type granular silicon remained at 33,500 yuan/ton [2] - The production of multi-crystalline silicon in June was approximately 102,000 tons, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 44.1% in the first half of the year [3] Group 3 - The reduction in production capacity is essential for reversing the current difficulties in the multi-crystalline silicon industry [4][5] - The asset-liability ratio of many photovoltaic companies has exceeded 70%, indicating significant financial pressure [4][5] - Companies like Tongwei and Daqo Energy have indicated that the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change in the short term, with silicon material prices expected to remain low [5] Group 4 - The global nominal capacity of multi-crystalline silicon is projected to reach approximately 3.04 million tons by May 2025, with domestic capacity accounting for about 97% [6] - The photovoltaic industry's supply-side adjustments are expected to deepen, with the multi-crystalline silicon sector likely to be one of the first to complete adjustments [6]

| 股票代码：600438 | 股票简称：通威股份 | | | 公告编号：2025-064 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110085 | 债券简称：通 | 22 | 转债 | | 通威股份有限公司关于 "通 22 转债"预计满足转股价格修正条件的提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、"通 22 转债"发行上市概况 经中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可[2021]4028 号文核准，公司于 2022 年 2 月 24 日公开发行了 12,000 万张可转换公司债券，每张面值 100 元，共计 120 亿元。本次可转债期限 6 年，自 2022 年 2 月 24 日起至 2028 年 2 月 23 日止， 票面利率为第一年 0.20%、第二年 0.40%、第三年 0.60%、第四年 1.50%、第 五年 1.80%、第六年 2.00%。 经上海证券交易所自律监管决定书[2022]61 号文同意，公司本次发行的 1,200,000.00 万元可转换公司债券于 ...

公司近况 7 月2 日，公司公告子公司永祥股份引入战略投资者进展暨实施增资扩股完成。公司与11 家战略投资者 就增资扩股事宜签署相关协议，收到本次战略投资者股权增资款合计约49.16 亿元人民币，并于近日完 成永祥股份的工商变更登记手续。 评论 硅料行业报价上涨，中期供给侧改革可期。根据硅业分会本周数据，N型复投料成交价格区间为3.40- 3.80 万元/吨，成交均价3.47 万元/吨，环比小幅回升0.87%；N型颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.30-3.40 万元/ 吨，成交均价维持在3.35 万元/吨。我们认为硅料报价上涨主要由于：1）近期硅料产量相对稳定，行业 累库压力有限；2）国家相关部门多措并举，持续释放供给侧改革利好信号。我们认为当前光伏板块底 部明确，走出本轮底部周期的关键在于解决供给大于需求的矛盾，而光伏行业经过超过一年经营性亏 损，单纯市场化出清存在一定难度，政策端供给侧改革是最直接有效的方法。考虑硅料环节供需矛盾相 对深、成本曲线相对陡峭、且位于光伏主产业链最上游，因此我们认为硅料环节的供给侧改革对于产业 链供需和盈利修复影响更大。考虑通威股份为硅料行业产能/销量市占第一，成本位于西门子法硅料成 ...

在当下中国经济新旧动能转换的关键时期，产业格局正经历深刻变革，新产业蓬勃兴起，传统产业加速 升级。然而，"内卷式"竞争这一顽疾却在部分行业悄然滋生。部分光伏、储能等领域企业为争夺市场份 额，不惜低价倾销，扰乱市场秩序。 多位受访的业内人士对中国证券报记者表示，"内卷式"竞争的深层次原因主要是技术创新不足、专利保 护缺失、市场信号不清等。面对这一困境，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局等多部门密集出台整治举 措，力求斩断"内卷"枷锁。与此同时，业内头部企业纷纷探索破局之道，以模式创新、技术革新及强化 专利保护为利刃，在激烈竞争中开辟差异化发展路径，引领行业从"价格内卷"向"价值创造"转型。 以模式创新走差异化之路 在市场供求关系变化的背景下，光伏、储能行业的上市公司逐渐从"供给侧创新"向"需求侧创新"转变， 挖掘贴近市场需求的发展新模式。 "未来靠单独生产组件来'卷'产品，已经不能满足客户的需求，未来光伏产品要从过去的'单一性'向'系 统性'转变，以模式创新实现差异化发展。"天合光能战略、产品与市场负责人张映斌在接受中国证券报 记者采访时表示，随着不同细分场景需求的日渐多元，为客户提供综合解决方案将是光伏行业破除"内 ...

昨日A股 7月2日，A股三大指数集体下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌1.13%，北证 50指数跌1.23%。全市场成交额14051亿元，较上日缩量914亿元。全市场超3200只个股下跌。板块题材 上，光伏、钢铁、养殖、代糖、煤炭、海工装备板块涨幅居前；算力硬件、半导体、脑机接口、数字货 币、多元金融板块跌幅居前。 盘面上，光伏板块集体大涨，钢铁板块午后强势拉升，海工装备板块集体爆发，算力硬件板块集体走 低，脑机接口板块集体调整。 | 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3454.79 | -2.96(-0.09%) | | 深证指数 | 10412.63 | -63.66(-0.61%) | | 创业板指 | 2123.72 | -24.2(-1.13%) | | | 日期:7月2日 制图:21投资通 | | 隔夜外盘 纽约股市三大股指7月2日涨跌不一。截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌10.52点， 收于44484.42点，跌幅为0.02%；标准普尔500种股票指数上涨29.41点，收于6227.42点 ...

Overview - Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced the completion of capital increase and share expansion for its subsidiary Yongxiang Co., Ltd. to enhance capital strength and optimize financial structure in the photovoltaic industry [1][10] Capital Increase Details - Yongxiang Co., Ltd. plans to introduce strategic investors with a pre-investment valuation of 27 billion yuan [1][10] - The total capital raised from strategic investors is approximately 6.82 billion yuan [2][10] - The capital will be used primarily to repay bank loans and supplement working capital for Yongxiang and its subsidiaries [10] Strategic Investors - Key strategic investors include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. and China CITIC Financial Asset Management Co., Ltd. [2][3] - The shareholding structure post-capital increase shows a total of 63,143,126,251 shares held by major investors, representing 78.69% [3][8] Financial Assessment - As of September 30, 2024, Yongxiang's audited equity attributable to the parent company was 25.693 billion yuan, with a valuation of 28.215 billion yuan, reflecting a valuation increase of 252.25 million yuan and a growth rate of 9.82% [10][11] Corporate Changes - Yongxiang has completed the business registration changes and received a new business license from the market supervision authority [10][12] - The registered capital of Yongxiang increased from 1,060,866,905 yuan after the capital increase [12]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a significant price increase due to production cuts driven by environmental regulations and government policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity. This has led to a reduction in steel output expectations, particularly in Tangshan, where a 30% production cut has been mandated from July 4 to July 15. The market anticipates further impacts on steel production as a result of these measures [1][3]. Group 1: Steel Industry Insights - The recent meeting of the Financial and Economic Committee emphasized the need to push for the elimination of outdated production capacity, directly influencing the steel market [1]. - Tangshan steel mills have received directives for a 30% production cut, which is expected to significantly lower steel inventories and production levels [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that steel billet exports in the first four months of 2025 have already surpassed the total for 2024, prompting suggestions for export restrictions [1]. - A total of approximately 30 million tons of production cuts have been ordered for the year, coinciding with a seasonal demand lull, which has heightened market expectations for reduced steel output [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Longjiang Securities noted that administrative production cuts could act as a bullish option for the steel sector, particularly in July, which is traditionally a slow season for demand [3]. - The announcement of production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector has also led to significant price increases in that market, indicating a broader trend of supply-side reforms impacting various sectors [3]. - The steel sector saw a strong rally in stock prices, with companies like Liugang and Chongqing Steel hitting their daily price limits amid these developments [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The overall A-share market experienced a decline, with major indices falling and a significant number of stocks trading lower, reflecting broader economic pressures [9]. - The government is expected to focus on structural adjustments across multiple industries, including steel, refining, and new energy sectors, as part of its economic strategy [7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors have begun to sell off some positions in response to the recent price increases in steel, indicating a cautious approach to the current market dynamics [1][4]. - The market's reaction to production cuts in both the steel and photovoltaic sectors suggests a growing trend towards supply-side management as a means to stabilize prices and manage excess capacity [3].