贵州茅台更新&推荐：重视茅台批价上行信号，或领军行业走向反转 3从茅台角度看—— 1周末批价反馈：本周六/日批价1760/1690元，整体保持稳定。 2白酒板块近期受飞天批价上行延续较好情绪，明显跑赢大盘。 我们看好本轮由贵州茅台领军带动的白酒板块低位向上弹性行情，从板块角度看—— ① 消费环境看：25年在股市财富效应带动下，无论是高端商场还是国际品牌消费均在改善，呈现出高端消 1周末批价反馈：本周六/日批价1760/1690元，整体保持稳定。 2白酒板块近期受飞天批价上行延续较好情绪，明显跑赢大盘。 我们看好本轮由贵州茅台领军带动的白酒板块低位向上弹性行情，从板块角度看—— ① 消费环境看：25年在股市财富效应带动下，无论是高端商场还是国际品牌消费均在改善，呈现出高端消费率先 修复的趋势； ② 白酒需求看：预计春节期间动销降幅环比25H2收窄；另外，1月以来虽茅台线上/线下均同比加速投放，但i茅台 投放1499元飞天有效刺激长尾C端需求，大众高端需求仍在&有较大开拓空间； ③ 白酒供给端看：酒企仍以稳价盘/促动销为原则布局春节，在回款/发货端相对理性，随着老酒储备继续增加， 未来白酒行业或进入"质价比"阶段 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a slight decline in retail prices for the top ten products, indicating a structural differentiation while maintaining a high-level consolidation trend [1][6]. Price Movements - Among the top ten products, seven saw price declines while three experienced increases. The notable price increases include: - Qinghua Lang rose by 9 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 7 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price growth due to pre-festival consumption and channel replenishment support - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation saw a minor increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1][7] - Conversely, the price declines included: - Feitian Moutai decreased by 9 yuan per bottle - Premium Moutai fell by 4 yuan per bottle after a period of strong price increases - Guojiao 1573 and Qinghua Fen 20 both dropped by 3 yuan per bottle - Ancient Well Tribute 20 decreased by 2 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin and Crystal Jian Nan Chun both saw minor declines of 1 yuan per bottle [1][7]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for liquor prices is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The aim is to provide an objective, real, and scientifically traceable dataset regarding well-known liquor market prices [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai has begun to show a magnetic influence on their market retail prices. The iMoutai platform started selling Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle, which has contributed to price adjustments [2][7]. - Bernstein's recent report highlights a positive outlook on Moutai's RTM (Route to Market) channel reform, indicating a shift from passive pricing to active value chain control. Moutai has implemented dynamic contracts to replace fixed quotas, allowing for flexible price and volume adjustments [8]. Profitability and Inventory Management - Moutai's wholesale price has stabilized and rebounded, with the 500ml Feitian Moutai now priced approximately 28% higher than traditional wholesale channels, enhancing profit margins. The company has reduced the supply of high-end variants by 30%-50%, leading to a significant recovery in wholesale prices [8]. - The expected inventory of aged liquor by 2027 is projected to reach 64,000 tons, providing a solid foundation for price management. Currently, the channel profit margin for Feitian Moutai stands at 25%, significantly higher than competitors, ensuring channel loyalty and price system resilience [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a slight decline in retail prices for the top ten products, indicating a structural differentiation while maintaining a high-level consolidation trend [1][6]. Price Changes - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products is 9,215 yuan, down 6 yuan from the previous day [1][6]. - Among the top ten products, seven saw price declines while three experienced increases [1][7]. - The price increases were led by Qinghua Lang, which rose by 9 yuan per bottle, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which increased by 7 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price growth [1][7]. - Conversely, Feitian Moutai dropped by 9 yuan per bottle, and the premium Moutai decreased by 4 yuan per bottle, following a period of strong price increases [1][7]. Data Collection Methodology - The price data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable overview of the liquor market [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai and premium Moutai has begun to show a magnetic influence on their retail prices [2][8]. - Bernstein's report highlights the successful channel reform of Kweichow Moutai, transitioning from passive pricing to active value chain control, which has led to a stabilization and rebound in wholesale prices [8]. - The implementation of dynamic contracts instead of fixed quotas allows for flexible price and volume adjustments, contributing to a significant increase in profit margins [8]. Future Outlook - The expected inventory of aged liquor by 2027 is projected to reach 64,000 tons, providing a solid foundation for price management [8]. - The profit margin for Feitian Moutai is currently at 25%, significantly higher than competitors, ensuring channel loyalty and resilience in the pricing system [8].

春节假期是白酒传统消费旺季，今年春节前第3~4周白酒实际动销流速已经开始加快，比往年提前1~2 周，主要受益于礼赠市场需求表现好于市场预期。节前1-2周以及春节假期期间，大众聚饮等需求有望 逐步释放，再考虑到2026年春节假期同比2025年多一天，且春节等重要节假日消费存在一定韧性，春节 白酒消费以居民返乡聚饮为主，长假多一天有利于白酒消费场景的增加，综合判断2026年春节旺季白酒 动销表现有望平稳好于市场预期。截至2026年2月6日，白酒板块市盈率(TTM)约为19.5x，处于中长期 的历史底部区间，在3年/5年/10年/上市以来的30%/18%/10%/16%分位，已反应较多中长期的悲观预期。 此外，2024年以来白酒头部企业股东回报稳步提升，龙头公司分红率普遍在65%以上，不断增厚投资安 全边际。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，临近春节白酒动销逐步升温，考虑到2026年春节假期同比 2025年多一天，且春节等重要节假日消费存在一定韧性，春节白酒消费以居民返乡聚饮为主，长假多一 天有利于白酒消费场景的增加，综合判断2026年春节旺季白酒动销表现有望平稳好于市场预期。 白酒行业已连续调整多年，当前 ...

Group 1: Moutai's New Product Launch - Moutai's "Zhenxiang" edition of 53% vol 500ml Guizhou Moutai liquor will be available for sale from February 10 to February 16, with daily sales starting at 9:00 AM until sold out [1] - The "Moutai" brand will have four major sales events throughout the year, including Spring Festival, brand day, Mid-Autumn Festival, and Winter [1] - The launch of the zodiac edition during the Spring Festival is expected to boost direct sales revenue and gross margin, capitalizing on gifting and collecting demand [1] Group 2: Appointment of New General Manager at Kuaijishan - Kuaijishan has appointed Tang Guijiang as the new General Manager, with a term aligned with the seventh board of directors [2] - Tang has a background in sales management from Budweiser and China Resources Snow Beer, indicating the company's intention to leverage experienced management from the fast-moving consumer goods sector [2] - The new General Manager's marketing experience is anticipated to enhance the company's sales management system and channel layout [2] Group 3: Huaren Beer’s Engagement with Industry Association - Huaren Beer’s President Jin Hanquan visited the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, accompanied by executives from several liquor companies [3] - The discussion focused on the current industry landscape and Huaren's project developments, highlighting the company's positive growth in the beer sector and steady exploration in the liquor sector [3] - The visit signifies Huaren's commitment to its "dual empowerment" strategy in both beer and liquor, aiming for improved resource integration efficiency [3] Group 4: Introduction of New Brand by Fenggu - Fenggu Liquor plans to launch an innovative brand named FORGOOD, targeting new consumer groups with a preference for non-fragrant liquor [4] - The company aims to develop "fragrance-free liquor" and other alcoholic beverages that do not adhere to traditional fragrance classifications [4] - This initiative reflects Fenggu's proactive exploration in product development and market segmentation, contributing to a differentiated product matrix [4]

格隆汇2月10日｜中信建投指出，i茅台放量赋能，茅五回暖信号凸显。近期高端酒行业显著回暖，i茅 台成为核心驱动力，其平台上UMEET气泡酒新品首销成绩亮眼，资本市场中白酒股亦表现强势，中证 白酒指数触底后反弹超10%，龙头酒价企稳印证行业触底回升的周期规律。i茅台自1月上线500ml飞天 茅台后发展迅猛，单月新增用户628万、月活超1531万，成交转化效率可观，飞天订单占总订单量 67.45%，大幅降低普通消费者购酒门槛，成功激活了此前与茅台销售体系绝缘的消费群体。i茅台销售 与履约端表现俱佳，飞天成为营收核心支撑，新增发货仓后配送效率显著提升，线下门店交付也形成有 效补充；市场端需求持续旺盛，茅台3月飞天首批配额已售罄，第二批正申报，充分印证白酒行业真实 消费需求的释放。2026 年春节旺季五粮液终端动销超预期，市场需求持续火爆，核心单品表现亮眼。 目前，白酒板块估值处于历史低位，具备较强底部配置价值，同时关注消费政策催化。以业绩出清卸包 袱+强品牌支撑动销+强运营赋能渠道+新营销模式探索的底部配置逻辑。 ...

本报记者 于宏 同时，券商还对多只个股给出了目标价，以供投资者参考。例如，天风证券给予华鲁恒升的目标价为46.37元/股，其最新 收盘价（2月9日收盘价，下同）为36.34元/股；华泰证券给予新和成的目标价为38.24元/股，其最新收盘价为29.83元/股。 此外，今年以来，有282只个股获得了券商的首次关注。其中，按券商家数排序，世纪华通获得5家券商的首次关注；日联 科技获得4家券商首次关注；悍高集团、锦华新材、西麦食品均获得3家券商的首次关注。 今年以来，随着A股公司2025年业绩预告、快报陆续披露，券商也在加速更新个股评级。Wind资讯数据显示，年内截至2 月9日（下同），券商已对25只个股上调评级；从另一个维度来看，券商对713只个股给出了"买入"评级，其中，电子、电力设 备、机械设备、汽车等板块较受关注。 在券商上调个股评级方面，上述25只个股中，有3只获得了"强烈推荐"评级。具体来看，方正证券对淮北矿业的评级由"推 荐"上调至"强烈推荐"；招商证券对中国中免、帝科股份的评级均由"增持"上调至"强烈推荐"；菜百股份、潍柴动力等22只个股 的评级，被券商由"增持"上调至"买入"。 在券商给予个股"买入 ...

2月9日，A股迎来普涨行情，双创指数涨近3%，4612只个股收红，光通信模块、影视概念等板块涨幅靠前。 受访人士表示，内外因素共振推动A股反弹，但市场量能未明显放大，叠加融资余额持续回落，反弹持续性存疑。预计节前最后一周市场大概率延续震荡 上行态势，本周可逢低加大仓位。 科技、资源股大涨 指数高开高走，沪指收涨1.41%报4123.09点，创业板指收涨2.98%报3332.77点，深证成指收涨2.17%。沪深300、上证50、北证50涨幅均超过1%，科创50 收涨2.51%。 市场放量1067亿元，三市日成交额增至2.27万亿元。杠杆资金热度持续回落，截至2月6日，沪深京两融余额降至2.66万亿元。 盘面上，CPO概念、影视概念、AI语料、Chiplet概念、光电子器件均大涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | . 涨幅% ↑ | 最新 | 总市值 | 成交额 | 年初至今涨幅% | 周涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 801890 | 机械设备(中) | 2.54 | 2353.57 | 62378 Z | 1719亿 | 9 43 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory reduction ongoing during the Spring Festival cycle. Moutai's performance in terms of volume and price has shown continuous improvement before the festival, and the trend of exchanging price for volume is expected to accelerate inventory reduction [2][7] - The demand for consumer goods is expected to gradually recover, with the Spring Festival stocking period potentially leading to a strong start to the year. Recommended companies include Ganhe Weiye, Guizhou Moutai, Guoquan, Mengniu Dairy, Angel Yeast, Wuliangye, Wancheng Group, Anjixin Food, Qiaqia Food, Babi Food, Ruoyu Chen, Dongpeng Beverage, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kuaijishan [2][7] Summary by Sections Dairy Products Supply and Demand Trends - The deep processing and low-temperature liquid milk sectors are driving structural prosperity in the dairy industry. The price of raw milk has stabilized, indicating an approaching supply-demand inflection point. The total sales scale of various dairy products in China for 2024 is estimated to be approximately 653.5 billion yuan, with liquid milk at 355 billion yuan, milk powder at 176.6 billion yuan, and other dairy products at 121.9 billion yuan. While liquid milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, other dairy products (such as cheese and cream) are projected to continue growing, with growth in other dairy products expected to outpace that of liquid milk and milk powder over the next five years [4][18] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China for 2024 is estimated to be about 40.5 kg per person per year, indicating significant room for improvement compared to the world average and other developed economies [20] - The consumption scale of chilled and ambient liquid milk in 2024 is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan and 89.7 billion yuan, respectively. The penetration rate of chilled milk is expected to rise to over 30% by 2029, up from 25% in 2024 [22] Market Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the Food and Beverage (Yangtze River) Index has risen by 4.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has increased by 0.29%. This performance is primarily driven by the liquor, seasoning, and soft drink sectors due to the stocking effect of the Spring Festival [6][35] - The white liquor sector continues to show improvement in sales dynamics, with high-end liquor performing the best. The overall market is expected to benefit from the ongoing inventory reduction and the gradual recovery of demand [7][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that the online demand for Moutai has shown strong explosive growth, supporting the price stability of Moutai. Additionally, some inventory replenishment demand has amplified the price fluctuations of Moutai. On the supply side, changes in the delivery rhythm have also caused certain disturbances to Moutai's wholesale prices [2][7] Summary by Sections Moutai Price Fluctuations - Since the beginning of 2026, Moutai's wholesale prices have experienced volatility. The price of original Moutai bottles dropped to around 1505 CNY per bottle at the start of 2026 but subsequently broke through the 1600 CNY and 1700 CNY thresholds by the end of January. As of February 5, 2026, the price rose to 1660 CNY per bottle [6][17] - For bulk Moutai, the price initially fell to 1490 CNY per bottle, then rose to 1650 CNY by the end of January, before dropping to 1570 CNY in early February, and finally rebounding to 1610 CNY by February 5 [6][17] Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand: The "i Moutai" app had over 15.31 million active users in January 2026, with more than 1.45 million users purchasing desired products, resulting in over 2.12 million transactions. The explosive online demand has supported Moutai's strong price performance. Additionally, some channel replenishment and purchasing demand have further increased price volatility [7][18] - Supply: During the Spring Festival peak season, demand is favorable, but the overall supply of Moutai is tight, with limited channel inventory. Some regions have applied for additional quotas, and certain distributors have begun selling March quotas for Moutai [7][18] Short-term and Long-term Price Outlook - In the short term, Moutai is expected to achieve a narrow bottom fluctuation as supply is gradually controlled, and demand is recovering. The acceleration of pre-holiday supply will help control prices post-holiday. In the long term, Moutai's price fluctuations will be determined by economic growth and supply growth factors [8][21] - The report emphasizes that Moutai's price fluctuations are fundamentally driven by supply and demand relationships. Demand is closely related to residents' income and consumer confidence, while supply is influenced by Moutai's pricing strategy. Since 2009, the number of Moutai bottles that urban residents can purchase monthly has fluctuated around a historical average of 2 bottles [8][22]