Core Viewpoint - The surge in domestic software concept stocks is closely linked to recent U.S. export control threats on key software, which may accelerate the localization of industrial and foundational software in China [1][6][7] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 13, amidst a general market adjustment, several domestic software stocks saw significant gains, with Rongji Software hitting the daily limit, Yingjian Technology rising by 20%, and China Software also reaching the daily limit [3] - Kingsoft Office experienced an increase of over 18%, while Chengmai Technology rose by over 13%, with other companies like Anlu Technology and Youfu Network also following suit [3] Group 2: Key Events and Reactions - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Commerce, which included a shift to WPS format for official documents, gained traction on social media, contributing to the interest in Kingsoft Office's WPS product [3][4] - The announcement also included new export control measures on certain rare earth-related items, which are set to take effect soon, further emphasizing the urgency for domestic software alternatives [3][6] Group 3: Industry Insights - Analysts from Dongfang Securities noted that U.S. export controls on foundational software could significantly accelerate the localization process for industrial software, highlighting the potential for growth in this sector [6][8] - Western Securities emphasized that while there may be short-term technical adaptation challenges, the situation creates a golden opportunity for domestic software development and ecosystem building [7] - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) market, crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, currently has a localization rate of less than 20%, dominated by foreign companies, but is expected to see increased domestic development due to geopolitical tensions [7][8]

Group 1: Software ETF Performance - The Software ETF has a turnover rate of 13.16% and a trading volume of 720 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The latest scale of the Software ETF reached 5.434 billion yuan, marking a one-month high and ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The latest share count of the Software ETF is 5.827 billion shares, also a one-month high and leading among comparable funds [1] - Over the past four days, the Software ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 507 million yuan, totaling 620 million yuan [1] - As of October 10, 2025, the net value of the Software ETF has increased by 34.34% over the past three years [1] - The highest monthly return since inception is 39.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being three months and a maximum increase of 69.40% [1] - The average return during the months of increase is 10.06% [1] Group 2: Key Holdings in Software Sector - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Software Service Index include iFlytek, Tonghuashun, Kingsoft Office, Zhinan Zhen, Hengsheng Electronics, Runhe Software, 360, Tuo Wei Information, Yonyou Network, and Deepin Technology, collectively accounting for 62.41% of the index [1] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain foreign rare earth-related items containing Chinese components, with the announcement format changing to WPS, which has sparked discussions [2] - Huachuang Securities noted that the demand for domestic software is accelerating due to the need for self-reliance in technology, driving the development of secure and controllable industrial software and computing power industries [2] - The Ministry of Finance's procurement standards for 2024 emphasize self-reliance, and continuous updates to security assessments are expected to lead to high-quality industry development [2] - The domestic software industry's performance is gradually improving, confirming a turning point [2]

Core Viewpoint - Some cloud computing concept stocks are rising against the market trend, indicating potential investor interest in this sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kingsoft (03888) increased by 15.13%, trading at HKD 36.96 [1] - China Software International (00354) rose by 6.1%, trading at HKD 6.26 [1] - Inspur Digital Enterprise (00596) gained 5.07%, trading at HKD 8.49 [1] - Kingdee International (00268) saw a modest increase of 1.04%, trading at HKD 16.48 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 61 of 2025, implementing export controls on certain overseas rare earth-related items with Chinese components [1] - The new regulations state that military-use exports are generally not permitted [1] - The announcement's attachment has shifted to WPS format, requiring application documents to be submitted in Chinese, which has sparked significant discussion [1] Group 3: Industry Implications - The use of WPS for government documents reflects a broader initiative to promote key technology self-sufficiency and ensure information security [1] - Open Source Securities highlights that ongoing external friction emphasizes the trend towards self-sufficiency in core technology products, suggesting investment opportunities in the "Xinchuang" sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant rise in domestic software stocks, with notable gains from companies like Kingsoft Office and Chengmai Technology, driven by recent news related to the Ministry of Commerce's announcement [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Kingsoft Office (688111) led the sector with a rise of 17.84%, reaching a market capitalization of 162.1 billion [2]. - Chengmai Technology (300598) increased by 13.08%, with a total market value of 12.3 billion [2]. - Kirin Security (688152) saw an 11.44% gain, bringing its market cap to 6.0 billion [2]. - China Software (600536) rose by 10%, with a market capitalization of 50.7 billion [2]. - China Great Wall (000066) increased by 6.10%, with a market value of 57.2 billion [2]. - Other notable performers include Taiji Co. (002368) up 5.10%, Inspur Software (600756) up 4.93%, and Runhe Software (300339) up 4.86% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in software stocks coincided with a trending topic on Weibo regarding the Ministry of Commerce's announcement, which included a shift to WPS format for certain documents, sparking public interest [1][2]. - The announcement also included export controls on certain rare earth-related items with Chinese components, which may have implications for the tech sector [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Some cloud computing stocks are rising against the market trend, indicating potential investor interest and confidence in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kingsoft Corporation (03888) increased by 15.13%, reaching HKD 36.96 [1] - China Software International (00354) rose by 6.1%, reaching HKD 6.26 [1] - Inspur Digital Enterprise (00596) saw a 5.07% increase, reaching HKD 8.49 [1] - Kingdee International (00268) grew by 1.04%, reaching HKD 16.48 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 61 of 2025, implementing export controls on certain overseas rare earth-related items with Chinese components [1] - The new regulations state that military-use exports are generally not permitted [1] - The announcement's attachment now uses WPS format, requiring application documents to be submitted in Chinese, which has sparked significant discussion [1] Group 3: Industry Implications - The use of WPS for government documents reflects a broader initiative to promote key technology self-sufficiency and ensure information security [1] - Open Source Securities highlights the trend towards self-controllable core technology products amid escalating external friction [1] - There is an emphasis on investment opportunities in the "Xinchuang" sector, which focuses on domestic innovation and technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic software sector experienced a significant rally, with notable stocks such as China Software hitting the daily limit, and Kirin Security rising over 10% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Software reached the daily limit, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the stock [1] - Kirin Security saw an increase of over 10%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Runhe Software, Yingfang Software, and Zhuoyi Information also experienced upward movement, suggesting a broader trend in the sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry in China, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. plans to impose export controls on "critical software," which includes both foundational and industrial software, highlighting its strategic importance in the ongoing U.S.-China technological competition [9]. - The domestic market for industrial design software is expected to accelerate its localization process due to potential U.S. export restrictions, with significant growth opportunities identified in this area [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that while industrial design software has a low localization rate, the industrial control systems have a relatively higher domestic market share, particularly in DCS systems [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that if the U.S. imposes export controls on foundational software, it will significantly boost the localization of industrial and foundational software. Key investment targets include: - Industrial Software: Zhongwang Software (688083, Buy), Huada Jiutian (301269, Buy), and others [3]. - Foundational Software: Dameng Data (688692, Not Rated), Dongtu Technology (300353, Not Rated), and others [3]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic significance of critical software, which includes operating systems and databases, and notes that the domestic market share for PC operating systems has reached 20-25%, while server operating systems are at 40-50% [9]. - The report highlights that the localization rate for industrial operating systems is still low, at around 10-15%, but is expected to improve as domestic products gain traction [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The urgency for domestic software innovation (信创) has significantly increased due to the U.S. imposing export controls on critical software and announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 [1][10]. - The domestic software market is projected to reach a scale of 2.66 trillion yuan by 2026, with a steady replacement rhythm of "2+8+N" in 2023 [2][20]. - Companies in the software sector have shown a recovery in Q2 2025, with notable revenue and profit growth, indicating a potential bottoming out of performance [3][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. Export Controls and Domestic Urgency - The U.S. has announced export controls on all critical software, which has heightened the urgency for domestic software innovation in China [1][10]. - The specific details of the export controls are still pending, but they are expected to primarily affect foundational and high-end industrial software [1]. Section 2: Policy and Financial Tools - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance, with significant financial tools being introduced to support emerging industries and infrastructure [2][16]. - A new policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan is being directed towards sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [16]. Section 3: Industry Performance and Positioning - Q2 2025 performance of key software companies indicates a recovery, with revenue growth rates such as 25% for China Software and 151% for Taiji Co. [22][23]. - Despite being a core area for AI, the computer sector has seen lower institutional allocation and growth compared to other TMT sectors [3][22]. Section 4: Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include China Software, Kingsoft, Dameng Data, and Taiji Co. in the critical software space, and Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Zhongke Shuguang in domestic computing power [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of U.S. tariffs and export controls on Chinese products, particularly in the software and hardware sectors, emphasizing the need for domestic innovation and self-reliance [1] - The Chinese government is actively promoting domestic products through favorable procurement policies, including a 20% price deduction for local products in competitive bidding [1] - The report indicates that the domestic chip industry is gaining traction, particularly in the financial sector, with major projects like the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's procurement of Huaguang chip servers valued at approximately 3 billion yuan [1] - The report notes a substantial increase in domestic server procurement by China Unicom, with 90.1% of the servers being domestically produced, reflecting a strong trend towards localization [2] - The report anticipates a turning point for the domestic innovation industry (Xinchang) driven by supportive policies and improving performance of listed companies in the sector [2][3] Summary by Sections - **Policy Support**: The government emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance as a key development focus, aiming to enhance core technology research and innovation capabilities [2] - **Market Performance**: Several listed companies in the Xinchang sector have shown improved performance compared to the previous year, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on key players in the Xinchang sector, including China Software, Dameng Data, and others, as well as leaders in specific sub-sectors like industrial software and the Harmony OS ecosystem [3]

Summary of China Software Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The China software industry experienced a growth of **15.1% YoY** in August 2025, an increase from **14.9%** in July and **14.0%** in June 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1][10] - Cumulative revenues for the first eight months of 2025 (8M25) grew by **12.6% YoY**, compared to **11.2% YoY** in the same period of 2024 [1][18] Key Insights - The growth in the software market is supported by increased spending on AI tools by consumer clients and successful project wins in the business sector, particularly in enterprise and government [1][10] - The **Small and Medium Business (SMB) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)** improved to **48.2** in September 2025 from **46.6** in August, although it remains below the **49.3** level seen in May 2025, suggesting a gradual recovery in client IT spending [10][17] - The integration of AI capabilities into software applications is expected to drive sequential growth in the coming months [1][10] Segment Performance - In August, segments such as **semi design**, **cloud computing**, and **basic software** outperformed others [2] - The **AI software products** segment showed strong performance, with notable increases in Monthly Active Users (MAU) for productivity tools and video/image generation tools [2][5] Financial Metrics - The aggregate revenue of software companies in China reached **Rmb1.3 trillion (US$183 billion)** in August 2025, with a net margin of **17.4%**, slightly down from **18.2%** in July [18][19] - The net income for the software sector in August was **Rmb230 billion (US$32 billion)**, contributing to an 8M25 net margin of **13.7%**, which is an improvement from **13.1%** in 7M25 [19][26] Market Dynamics - The IT services segment remains the largest contributor to revenue, accounting for **68%** of total revenues, followed by software products at **22%** and embedded system software at **8%** [25][29] - The revenue from non-China markets increased to **US$6.5 billion**, representing an overseas exposure of **3.5%**, up from **3.2%** in July 2025 [25][30] Investment Recommendations - Companies highlighted for potential investment include **Sensetime** (AI), **Kingsoft Office** (Office Software), **Kingdee** (ERP), **Hundsun** (Finance), **TUYA** (IoT software), and **Empyrean** (EDA software) [3] Conclusion - The China software industry is on a positive trajectory with strong growth in AI spending and improving SMB sentiment, indicating a favorable environment for investment and expansion in the sector [1][10][18]