Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.33% and trading volume increasing by 12.76% compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - The coal industry led the gains with a rise of 5.13%, followed by building materials at 3.42% and building decoration at 3.10% [1]. - The banking sector experienced the largest decline, down by 1.38%, followed by the computer and communication sectors, which fell by 0.76% and 0.70% respectively [2]. Trading Volume and Changes - Total trading volume reached 1,221.18 million shares, with a total transaction value of 15,541.60 billion yuan [1]. - The coal industry had a trading volume of 231.18 billion yuan, marking an increase of 128.36% from the previous day [1]. - The building materials sector recorded a trading volume of 302.17 billion yuan, up by 29.36% [1]. Leading Stocks - The top-performing stock in the coal sector was Shanmei International, which increased by 10.04% [1]. - In the building materials sector, Zhongtie Zhuangpei rose by 10.77% [1]. - The leading stock in the building decoration industry was Zhubo Design, which surged by 20.02% [1]. Declining Stocks - The banking sector's leading stock, Xiamen Bank, fell by 3.80% [2]. - In the computer sector, Yookede dropped by 6.18% [2]. - The communication sector's top stock, Youfang Technology, decreased by 5.38% [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3570.20 points, above the six-month moving average, with a change of 0.29% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 15610.05 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 61 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Huabei Mining: 8.00% deviation rate, with a price increase of 8.60% [1] - Hengjin Induction: 7.25% deviation rate, with a price increase of 8.04% [1] - Shanmei International: 7.00% deviation rate, with a price increase of 10.04% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the six-month moving average include: - Juhua Technology: minor deviation rate [1] - *ST Chuntian: minor deviation rate [1] - Hanzhong Precision Machinery: minor deviation rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown strong performance, with a 1.80% increase, driven by significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tunnel Co. (600820) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) rose by 1.83%, marking a third consecutive increase [1] - Key stocks in the coal sector, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy, experienced a 10% limit up [1] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to strong demand and favorable pricing conditions [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Everbright Securities noted that the "anti-involution" expectations are strengthening, predicting a bullish trend for coal prices as the peak demand season approaches [1] - Guosen Securities highlighted the resilience of coal demand and the potential for price rebounds in the second half of the year, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - The coal sector demonstrated strong performance metrics in Q1 2025, including a low debt-to-asset ratio of 44.7%, a net profit margin of 12.7%, and a relatively high return on equity (ROE) [1] Group 3: Index Composition - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index comprises 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2] - The top five industries represented in the index are banking, coal, transportation, real estate, and media [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 15.81% of the total index weight, with significant contributions from companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in coal futures, particularly coking coal and coke, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [1][6][8] - The energy ETF (159930) saw a strong surge, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan and an increase of over 4% at one point [1][3] - Major coal stocks, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, reached their daily price limits, indicating strong market performance [3][4] Group 2 - The government announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and coal, aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated production capacity [4] - Coal production rates have been affected by environmental inspections, leading to a decrease in operational coal mines, which has tightened supply [4][7] - The price of thermal coal has rebounded, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price reaching 642 yuan per ton, a 5.4% increase from its lowest point earlier this year [5][6] Group 3 - The current market for thermal coal is characterized by high seasonal demand and tightening supply, with operational coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at a low utilization rate of 81.1% [7][8] - The inventory of coal at ports has decreased by 18.7% compared to the highest levels earlier this year, indicating a tightening supply situation [7] - The demand for electricity has increased due to high temperatures, leading to a rise in coal consumption for power generation [7][8]

大同证券指出，当前动力煤市场呈现"旺季需求主导、供给结构性收紧"的特征，受全国多地持续高温影 响，价格在高温驱动下稳步上涨。焦炭首轮提涨，焦煤价格继续上涨。在暴雨天气影响下，煤矿产量恢 复缓慢，"反内卷"政策和下游阶段性补库需求，以及焦炭首轮提涨下，炼焦煤价格仍有继续上涨的可 能。 截至2025年7月22日 13:35，中证全指能源指数(000986)强势上涨4.18%，成分股山西焦煤(000983)、山煤 国际(600546)、潞安环能(601699)纷纷10cm涨停，晋控煤业(601001)，淮北矿业(600985)等个股跟涨。能 源ETF广发(159945)上涨4.06%， 冲击4连涨。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证全指能源指数(000986)前十大权重股分别为中国神华(601088)、中 国石油(601857)、中国石化(600028)、陕西煤业(601225)、中国海油(600938)、广汇能源(600256)、兖矿 能源(600188)、杰瑞股份(002353)、中煤能源(601898)、山西焦煤(000983)，前十大权重股合计占比 67.97%。 东兴证券认为，一方面，由于夏季用电 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The coal sector is currently characterized by low capacity utilization, high inventory levels, and poor profitability, indicating a significant oversupply situation. This suggests a higher likelihood of "anti-involution" measures being effective. Additionally, the coal sector is undervalued, with coking coal showing the highest valuation advantage, followed by thermal coal [2][7]. - Companies such as Pingmei Shenma, Panjiang, Shanmei International, Kailuan, Hengyuan Coal Power, and Gansu Energy show greater elasticity in their operations. However, when considering investment safety (debt ratios), Pingmei Shenma, Kailuan, Hengyuan Coal Power, and Jinkong Coal are more favorable [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.78 percentage points, ranking 27th out of 32 industries. The thermal coal market price as of July 18 was 642 CNY/ton, up by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week. The outlook suggests potential short-term price increases due to high temperature demand, although rising port inventories may limit sustained price growth [6][21][22]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 6.33 million tons, up 11.1% week-on-week. The total coal inventory was 123.41 million tons, down 0.8% from the previous week, with a usable days supply of 19.5 days, a decrease of 2.3 days [22][41]. Individual Company Analysis - The report highlights specific companies with significant operational elasticity: Pingmei Shenma, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International are noted as elastic stocks. For long-term stable profit leaders, China Coal Energy and China Shenhua are recommended, while for transformation and growth, Electric Power Investment and Xinji Energy are suggested [8][38]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to remain supported in the short term due to tight supply conditions, while coking coal prices are also expected to maintain strength due to ongoing demand from steel production [22][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by high temperatures and a recovering supply from major production areas [2][59] - The report highlights that the focus should be on companies with stable performance and high return on equity (ROE), as well as those with attractive valuations and dividend yields [60] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - Thermal coal prices have rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal closing at 644 RMB/ton on July 18, an increase of 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][12] - Coking coal prices have also risen, with Shanxi coking coal reaching 1420 RMB/ton, up 110 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][32] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of thermal coal is tightening, with June imports down 26% year-on-year [2][59] - Daily consumption of thermal coal has increased, with coastal provinces averaging 222.3 million tons per day, a week-on-week increase of 3.5 million tons [17][21] 3. Price Trends - The long-term contract price for thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 666 RMB/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [3][12] - The coking coal price index is at 1111 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42 RMB/ton, while the cost index is at 1286 RMB/ton, indicating a gap of 175 RMB/ton [37][38] 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a combination of companies including Shanxi Coal International, Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others for investment [2][60] 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with specific stocks showing varied performance [54][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stable performance and growth potential [3][12]. Core Insights - National electricity load has reached new highs, with peak season demand expected to drive coal prices upward. The report anticipates that by mid-August, prices may exceed 750 RMB/ton, with a price center around 700 RMB/ton for the second half of the year [2][7]. - Coal supply is decreasing significantly, with June 2025 coal imports down by 11.1% year-on-year, and domestic coal production showing mixed results. The overall capacity utilization rate in the coal mining sector has dropped to 69.3%, the lowest since Q1 2020 [2][21][38]. - The demand side shows a positive trend, with thermal power generation growth turning positive since late May, and electricity consumption reaching record levels due to rising temperatures [2][7][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Huayang Co., Ltd. for stable performance and year-on-year production growth 2. Jinko Coal Industry for high net cash growth potential 3. Industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua for stable earnings 4. Shanmei International for recovery in production 5. Xinji Energy for coal-electricity integrated growth 6. CGN Mining for benefiting from nuclear power growth [3][12]. Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the coal sector has seen a weekly decline of 0.7%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [13][15]. - Yunnan Coal Energy has shown the highest weekly increase at 4.11%, while Dayou Energy has experienced the largest decline at 10.33% [18][19]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that coal prices are on an upward trend, with significant increases in both port and production prices. For instance, Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reached 634 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 10 RMB/ton [8][10]. - The report highlights the structural tightness in coal supply, with power plants' coal inventories dropping below levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [2][7].

Group 1: Coal Sector Insights - The coal sector experienced a significant boost on July 14, with stocks like Zhengzhou Coal Power hitting the daily limit up, and other companies such as Shanxi Coal International and Liaoning Energy also seeing substantial gains [4][7]. - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held a meeting emphasizing the need for coal companies to recognize the severe imbalance in supply and demand, and to strictly implement long-term contracts for electricity coal [7]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of maintaining safety and stability in production, improving coal supply quality, and addressing "involution" competition within the industry [7]. Group 2: Market Performance - On July 14, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45% respectively [15]. - A total of 3,179 stocks rose, with 72 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,064 stocks declined, including 18 that hit the daily limit down [16][17]. - The total trading volume reached 14,809.22 billion CNY, with a total of 122,924.9 million shares traded [17]. Group 3: Other Sector Developments - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to stimulate market liquidity and has drawn comparisons to the "Belt and Road Initiative" in terms of its long-term narrative potential [8]. - Various sectors, including construction, steel, and cement, have expressed intentions to address structural contradictions within their industries, with specific policies anticipated to be introduced soon [9]. - In Dongguan, a new plan was released to promote high-quality service consumption, including initiatives to enhance dining experiences and expand elderly care services [11][13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market performance, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized around 3500 points, driven by policy expectations and potential government stimulus measures [1][2] - Analysts from Citigroup predict that the upcoming Politburo meeting will not revise the budget or increase government bond quotas, but will focus on implementing existing policies to support consumption and the real estate sector [1][2] - The article highlights that the real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with a potential for further gains in the coming weeks, based on historical trends of policy-driven market movements [3][5] Group 2 - The banking sector is expected to see an increase in dividend yields due to upcoming dividend distributions, which could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [7] - The article notes that the insurance sector is adjusting its investment strategies to favor high-dividend assets, which may impact the overall market dynamics [7] - The article mentions that the real estate index has risen by 9.69% since June 23, indicating a positive trend relative to the Shanghai Composite Index [3][5] Group 3 - The article outlines the upcoming key events in the financial calendar, including the Politburo meeting and FOMC meetings, which are expected to influence market sentiment and policy direction [2] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and policy announcements as they could significantly impact market performance in the second half of the year [2][10] - The article suggests that sectors such as renewable energy, construction materials, and industrial metals are likely to benefit from current market trends and policy support [15][18]