Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9] Core Views - The recent interest rate cuts are expected to boost market liquidity and improve market sentiment, particularly benefiting the liquor sector [7] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with demand stabilizing and companies focusing on optimizing channels and brand cultivation for growth [7] - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in share buybacks and increasing dividend payouts [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the past month, the food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 2.6% [3] Market News - China's beer export value increased by 8.3% in the first quarter of 2025 [18] - The white liquor industry in Lüliang aims for an output value exceeding 13.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [18] - The EU's total export value of alcoholic beverages is projected to reach 29.8 billion euros in 2024 [18] Investment Insights - The report highlights two main lines for investment recommendations in the liquor sector: companies with valuation advantages and those expected to perform well throughout the year [7] - Recommended companies include: Water Well, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Liquor for valuation advantages; and Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu for overall recommendations [7] Key Company Feedback - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for major players in the liquor sector, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu [11] Industry Data Trends - The cumulative production of white liquor in 2024 is reported at 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [37] - The revenue of the white liquor industry in 2023 reached 756.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [37] - The seasoning industry has seen a market scale growth from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 592.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6% [41]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound after the May Day holiday, with the WIND white liquor index ending a four-week decline, rising by 2.06% this week [1][2] - 33 liquor companies saw their stock prices increase, accounting for over 80% of the sector, with *ST Lanhuang and *ST Yedao leading the gains at 14.05% and 8.46% respectively [2][4] - The performance of liquor companies that reported a decline in net profit for Q1 2025 was generally weak, with stock price increases of less than 1%, underperforming the white liquor index [1][7] Group 2 - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that liquor companies are entering a phase of easing pressure, with the industry expected to reach a bottom signal after further clearing in Q2 2025, potentially leading to a recovery in the second half of the year [6] - Some liquor stocks showed weak rebounds due to significant declines in Q1 performance, with companies like Yanghe and Shede experiencing over 30% drops in both revenue and net profit [7] - The competitive landscape in the liquor industry is intensifying, and companies that fall behind in operational and brand competitiveness may face capital abandonment [8]

Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by a decline in both production and sales, a slowdown in terminal sales, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue decline has increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant revenue drops for two consecutive years [1] Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai leads the industry with a gross margin of 91.93%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao at 87.54% and Shui Jing Fang at 82.76%. Shui Jing Fang's high gross margin is attributed to the elimination of low-end products, focusing on high-end liquor [2] - The lowest gross margins are reported by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture, at 36.03% and 34.94% respectively. Jin Zhong Zi Jiu's gross margin has decreased by 5.38 percentage points, while Shun Xin Agriculture's margin increased by 4.23 percentage points, mainly due to its slaughtering business [2] Gross Margin Trends - In 2024, the median gross margin for 19 liquor companies is 73.16%, down by 2 percentage points from the previous year. 12 companies, accounting for 63%, reported a decline in gross margins, with She De Jiu Ye experiencing the most significant drop of nearly 9 percentage points [3] - Jiu Gui Jiu also saw a gross margin decline of nearly 7 percentage points, indicating that mid-range liquor brands are facing the most severe impacts in this industry adjustment [3] Net Profit Margin Analysis - Guizhou Moutai boasts a net profit margin of 52.27%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye at 43.27% and 37.22% respectively, although all three companies experienced slight declines in net profit margins compared to the previous year [4] - The lowest net profit margins are found in Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, Shun Xin Agriculture, Tian You De Jiu, and She De Jiu Ye, all below 10%. The most significant declines in net profit margins were seen in She De Jiu Ye and Jiu Gui Jiu [5] Financial Summary - The financial performance of major liquor companies shows a trend of declining margins, with notable companies like Jiu Gui Jiu reporting a net profit margin as low as 0.88% [4][5] - The financial data indicates that while some companies have managed to improve their net profit margins, the overall trend in the industry is one of contraction and increased pressure on mid-range and low-end products [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for various products [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is facing dual declines in production and sales, with a notable slowdown in revenue growth for liquor companies in 2024 [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant downturns for two consecutive years [1] Group 2: Sales Expenses - The total sales expenses for 19 listed liquor companies reached 45.87 billion yuan in the previous year, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, which outpaced revenue growth [2] - The median sales expense ratio rose from 16.26% to 19.1%, indicating a growing burden on companies [2] - Notably, Wu Liang Ye had the highest sales expenses at 10.692 billion yuan, followed by Gu Qing Gong Jiu and Kweichow Moutai [2] Group 3: Management Expenses - The total management expenses for listed liquor companies amounted to 22.85 billion yuan, slightly up from 22.66 billion yuan the previous year, with a median management expense ratio of 7.27% [3] - Eleven companies reported an increase in management expenses, while eight companies saw a decline [3] - Companies like Shanxi Fen Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Tian You De Jiu experienced management expense growth exceeding 10% [3] Group 4: Expense Ratios - Jiu Gui Jiu had the highest sales expense ratio at 42.94%, followed by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu at 31.84% and Gu Qing Gong Jiu at 26.22% [4] - Kweichow Moutai had the lowest sales expense ratio at 3.24%, indicating efficient cost management [4] - The management expense ratios for Tian You De Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Jin Zhong Zi Jiu exceeded 10%, while companies like Wu Liang Ye and Kweichow Moutai maintained lower ratios [4]

有9家酒企归母净利润低于10亿元，4家净利润低于1亿元。去年只有金种子酒一家酒企亏损，亏损金额 从上年的0.22亿元扩大到2.58亿元。 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 19家上市白酒公司归母净利润增长7.6% 贵州茅台一家占比达到52% 2024年19家上市白酒公司（剔除*ST岩石（维权）），总共实现归母净利润1668.48亿元，同比增长 7.6%。 贵州茅台去年净利润达到862.28亿元，占上市白酒净利润的近52%，提升了3.48个百分点。其次是五粮 液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒，归母净利润分别为318.5 ...

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 3家酒企经营活动现金流净额转负 经营活动现金流是衡量上市公司核心盈利能力和财务健康度的关键指标，2024年3家酒企经营活动现金 流净额转负，分别为舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子酒，比上年多了两家。 去年8家公司经营活动现金流净额同比增长，剔除皇台酒业之后，增速最快的是泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 口子窖。此外贵州茅台增长38.85%，也排在前列。 此外，伊力特、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、舍得酒业、金种子酒、酒鬼酒在收入下滑的情况下，存货仍在增 长。 | | | 2024年上市白酒公司存货、现金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in elasticity as the economy stabilizes [5][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 25% and 37% [5] - The company is experiencing a shift in product structure leading to a decline in gross margin, while management expenses are being optimized [5] - E-commerce channels have shown strong performance, with sales growth of 37% year-on-year, while wholesale and agency sales declined by 32% [6] - The company is focusing on developing its domestic market, particularly in regions like Suining, which has resulted in a notable increase in revenue contribution from these areas [6] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with gross margin at 69% and net margin at 22%, both down year-on-year [5] - Operating cash flow increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 107% [5] Sales Channels - E-commerce sales accounted for 14.21% of total revenue, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, while traditional sales channels faced declines [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market was 4.94 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province fell by 33% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to recover as business scenarios improve, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28, 20, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to recover elasticity in the future, maintaining a "buy" rating for Shéde Jiǔyè [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 25% and 37% [3]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 69% and 22%, down by 4.8 and 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating net cash flow increased significantly, reaching 224 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107% [3]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q1 2025 was 1.234 billion and 208 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 28% and 13% year-on-year [4]. - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, with revenue of 205 million yuan, up 37% year-on-year, and its revenue share increased by 7 percentage points to 14.21% [4]. - The company has focused on developing its domestic market, particularly in Suining, resulting in a year-on-year revenue share increase of 7 percentage points to 34.23% [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak liquor consumption, but long-term prospects are positive as business scenarios are anticipated to recover, enhancing brand strength in the mid-to-high-end market [5]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 20, and 16 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in elasticity as the economy stabilizes [5][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 25% and 37% [5]. - The company is positioned as a resilient player in the mid-to-high-end market, with anticipated brand strength improvement post-economic recovery [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 69% and 22%, showing declines of 4.8 and 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company's operating cash flow significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 107% to 224 million yuan [5]. - Contract liabilities reached 206 million yuan by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41 million yuan [5]. Sales Channel and Product Performance - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 37%, while wholesale and agency sales declined by 32% [6]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q1 2025 was 1.234 billion and 208 million yuan, respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales experiencing a larger decline [6]. - The company has focused on developing its domestic market, particularly in regions like Suining, resulting in a year-on-year revenue increase of 7 percentage points in provincial markets [6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 20, and 16 times [7][10]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in business dining scenarios, which will enhance its performance in the next few years [7].