证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 2025年12月6日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 把握政策窗口期的投资机会 报告摘要 核心观点: 作者 | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱:liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525100001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 李博伦 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525040001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：libl@avicsec.com | | | 庞晨 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640124040009 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：pangc@ ...

Market Overview - The major stock indices in the market experienced fluctuations and retreated, with the ChiNext index dropping approximately 1% and falling below 2900 points, while around 3200 stocks were in the green [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% to 3821.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.59%, and the ChiNext index declined by 0.77%, with a total transaction volume of 1,032.6 billion yuan across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3] Sector Performance - Sectors such as coal, gas, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and stability saw declines, while military and pharmaceutical sectors rose against the trend, with military trade and AI application concepts being particularly active [3] Market Sentiment and Analysis - The current market is characterized by a "three-phase overlap": a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a critical period for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to market fluctuations and profit-taking as the year-end approaches [3] - Recent disturbances in the overseas environment, including repeated expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, have shaken global market liquidity expectations; despite Nvidia's earnings exceeding expectations, its stock price experienced volatility, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, which has affected sentiment in the A-share market [3] - Long-term factors supporting a slow bull market remain unchanged; however, in the short term, the strategy should focus on opportunistic positioning, awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the central economic work conference in mid-December, with potential for increased buying if adjustments are sufficient, while monitoring support levels at the 60-day and half-year moving averages and market volume conditions [3]

Core Insights - The news highlights ongoing financial distress among several real estate companies, with many facing significant debt defaults and legal issues, indicating a challenging environment for the sector [17] Company Summaries - First Capital Securities' subsidiary is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for failing to diligently supervise a convertible bond project involving Hongda Xingye [1][11] - Rongqiao Group has failed to repay loans totaling approximately 4.28 billion yuan, with additional commercial acceptance bills amounting to 20.64 million yuan also in default [2] - Zhengrong Real Estate has reported a new enforcement case with a value of 374 million yuan, indicating potential adverse effects on its debt repayment capabilities [3] - Sunshine City has outstanding debt principal totaling 65.46 billion yuan, with negotiations ongoing to resolve risks associated with overdue payments [4] - CIFI Group's subsidiaries have overdue debts totaling approximately 1.38 billion yuan, with ongoing bond restructuring efforts [5] - Greenland Group has faced 1,344 new lawsuits totaling 6.38 billion yuan, further complicating its financial situation [6] - AVIC Industry Finance has announced it will not disclose its Q3 2025 financial report on time, raising concerns about its financial transparency [7] - Pan Hai Holdings has been fined 4 million yuan for failing to disclose significant debt defaults, with penalties imposed on several executives for their lack of diligence [8] - Xi'an Construction has received a self-discipline penalty from the interbank market association for inaccurate disclosures regarding restricted funds and overdue debts [9] - Guangzhou Hanjing Group has reported new overdue debts of 1.63 billion yuan, alongside significant ongoing litigation [10] Market Overview - The real estate sector continues to face multiple challenges, including sluggish sales and restricted financing channels, with over 50% of 41 listed real estate companies reporting losses totaling 87.22 billion yuan in their latest financial disclosures [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term due to multiple positive factors, including policy support and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance market risk appetite [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Tuesday, the A-share market indices experienced a pullback after initially rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points but later retreating due to insufficient trading volume and profit-taking [5]. - The market is currently in a critical phase as it approaches the 4000-point mark, with a high level of recognition for the ongoing "slow bull" market, leading to a cautious stance among investors at significant price levels [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report has clarified the main goals for economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is expected to effectively boost market confidence [1]. - The earnings situation of listed companies is anticipated to gradually improve, providing additional upward momentum for the market, despite current earnings still being in a stabilization phase [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market environment is likely to continue improving marginally in the short term, supported by the upcoming release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, progress in US-China negotiations, and the nearing end of the A-share third-quarter report disclosures [5]. - In the medium term, factors such as anti-involution policies, increased household savings entering the market, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and technical reversals are expected to support a bullish trend in the A-share market for the fourth quarter [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In Q2 2025, the overall default rate of credit bonds showed a downward trend, with a new first - time defaulting entity. The default repayment rate was stable with a slight increase, mainly driven by Sunac's repayment. There were 20 newly - added default bonds, mostly in the real - estate industry with many secondary extensions. The number of urban investment non - standard risk events decreased, while the number of commercial paper overdue entities remained high. Two hot credit events were the failure of AVIC Industry Finance's off - site repayment plan and the extension of a Zhejiang construction private enterprise's debt [2][4][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Q2 2025: Overall Default Rate Continued to Decline, Repayment Rate Showed No Obvious Increase (1) Bond Default Rate - The overall default rate of credit bonds declined. There was one new first - time defaulting entity, Xinjie Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. The default scale in Q2 was 5.938 billion yuan, and the default rates from April to June were 1.02%, 1.02%, and 1.00% respectively, showing a downward trend. The default rate of private - enterprise credit bonds also decreased, with the default amounts from April to June being 4.588 billion yuan, 1.35 billion yuan, and 0 yuan respectively, and the default rates being 9.02%, 9.00%, and 8.92% respectively, lower than that in Q1 [14]. (2) Default Repayment Rate - The cumulative default repayment rate in Q2 2025 was stable with a slight increase. The repayment rate in April was higher than that in the previous quarter, mainly due to Sunac's repayment. The principal repayment scale in Q2 increased compared with the previous quarter, with the repayment amounts from April to June being 3.561 billion yuan, 0.266 billion yuan, and 0.016 billion yuan respectively. Sunac had the largest repayment amount, reaching 3.247 billion yuan in Q2, with a repayment progress of 29%. Many real - estate enterprises were promoting debt restructuring, but the cash repayment for investors was limited [20][24][25]. (3) Credit Event Statistics - In Q2 2025, there were 20 newly - added default bonds in domestic bonds, with a total balance of 14.049 billion yuan. Among them, 18 bonds reached extensions, mostly secondary extensions of real - estate industry bonds, and 2 bonds had substantial defaults. Other industries involved included communication equipment, non - bank finance, and medical [28]. (4) Urban Investment舆情 - The number of urban investment non - standard risk events decreased by 12 from Q1 to Q2 2025, mainly distributed in Shandong. In terms of administrative levels, district - level and prefecture - level entities accounted for 86% and 14% respectively. The number of urban investment commercial paper overdue entities remained high, with 57, 55, and 56 entities in April, May, and June respectively, mainly distributed in Shandong and Yunnan [31][33]. 2. Hotspot Analysis: AVIC Industry Finance's Off - site Repayment Plan Rejected, Zhejiang Construction Private Enterprise's Debt Extension (1) AVIC Industry Finance - AVIC Industry Finance planned to transfer off - site for orderly repayment but was not approved by the bondholders' meeting. Its stock was delisted, and it failed to disclose its 2024 annual report. As of July 23, 2025, it had 19 outstanding bonds, with a domestic bond balance of 20.47 billion yuan and overseas bonds of 300 million US dollars. With the support of AVIC Industry Group and its own equity assets that can be realized, the bond default risk was relatively controllable [39][40][49]. (2) Xinjie Holdings - Xinjie Holdings is a Zhejiang private construction enterprise. Its only outstanding bond, "23 Xinjie 01", with a balance of 350 million yuan, had its interest payment and maturity dates extended. The company's construction business income has been declining for three years, and it faces risks such as shrinking housing construction business, large asset restrictions, concentrated short - term debt repayment pressure, and increased guarantee compensation pressure [53][58][59].

Market Overview - A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index showing strong performance, particularly in sectors like computing hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The market is currently in a trend of steady upward movement, with trading volume stabilizing around 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift from "large-cap stocks" to "thematic plays" [1][3] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with ETF sizes steadily increasing and insurance funds continuing to flow in, providing significant support to the market [3] Economic Indicators - No significant negative macroeconomic factors are present before August, suggesting a new bullish window for the market [1] - The domestic economy is stabilizing, and potential liquidity release from interest rate cuts could further enhance market activity in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in electronic components, software development, communication equipment, and aerospace industries, while banking, insurance, precious metals, and real estate sectors lagged [3] - The "anti-involution" policy, if effectively implemented, could alleviate the challenges of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" for companies, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [1] Policy Impact - The new regulations in the securities industry may lead to revenue growth for brokerage firms, while long-term insurance fund assessment policies could improve investment returns and valuations [3] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could significantly boost global risk appetite, benefiting the A-share market [3]

Group 1 - The application for the change of major shareholders or actual controllers of AVIC Securities has been accepted on July 8 [1] - The market is speculating about the potential changes in the shareholding structure, particularly regarding the 28.29% stake held by the recently delisted second shareholder AVIC Capital and the 71.71% stake held by the controlling shareholder AVIC Investment [1] - Speculations regarding the change in the frozen shares held by AVIC Capital have been denied by informed sources, shifting the market's focus to the shareholding situation of AVIC Investment [1]

Group 1 - Qingmu Technology plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 3%, amounting to no more than 2.776 million shares [1] - Newcap received a decision from the police to revoke the case against its actual controller, who was previously detained for insider trading [2] - Rhine Biotech's directors and executives plan to collectively reduce their holdings by up to 0.14%, totaling no more than 1.0185 million shares [3] Group 2 - Puli Tui's stock and convertible bonds will be delisted on May 22, 2025 [5] - *ST Nong Shang will have its delisting risk warning lifted and will resume trading on May 23, 2025 [7] - State Grid Information Communication plans to acquire 100% equity of Yili Technology for approximately 1.853 billion yuan [9] Group 3 - Kelun Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received drug registration approval for a new injectable product, which is the first of its kind in China [10] - Aishida plans to acquire 7% equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang Qianjiang Robot Co., Ltd. for 13.09 million yuan [11] - Hongming Co. is planning to acquire 83% equity of Shenzhen Chisu Automation Equipment Co., Ltd. for approximately 151 million yuan [12] Group 4 - JuJiao Co. plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.6%, totaling no more than 2.093 million shares [14] - AVIC Financial's stock will be delisted on May 27, 2025 [16] - Jingwang Electronics' major shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.99% [17] Group 5 - Huaren Health intends to acquire stakes in three pharmaceutical chain companies for a total of 327 million yuan [18] - Huanrui Century's original shareholders are required to compensate for unfulfilled performance commitments with 116 million shares [20] - Tefa Service's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% [21] Group 6 - Maipu Medical is planning to acquire at least 51% of Easy Medical's equity, which will constitute a major asset restructuring [22] - *ST Jinshi will have its delisting risk warning lifted and its stock will resume trading on May 23, 2025 [22] - Guoke Micro is planning a major asset restructuring and will suspend trading [23] Group 7 - Defu Technology intends to acquire 100% equity of an overseas electronic circuit copper foil company [24] - Xince Standard's shareholder plans to reduce its holdings by up to 1% [25] - Xiouqiang Co. plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3% [27]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with all three major indices posting their largest drop in a month. The Dow Jones fell by 1.91%, the Nasdaq decreased by 1.41%, and the S&P 500 dropped by 1.61% [3] - Major technology stocks also saw declines, with Tesla and Apple each dropping over 2%, while Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia fell more than 1%. In contrast, Google saw an increase of nearly 3% [3] Economic Indicators - The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 5.09%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury increased by 11.5 basis points to 4.59%. The 2-year Treasury yield also rose by 4.7 basis points to 4.01%, indicating a close relationship with interest rate expectations [3] Policy Measures - A joint announcement from several Chinese financial regulatory bodies outlined 23 measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing financing supply, reducing costs, and improving efficiency [4] - The Shanghai government released a special action plan to boost consumption, emphasizing the integration of advanced technologies like AI and big data into consumer sectors [5] Corporate Actions - Guokai Micro announced plans to acquire assets through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, focusing on semiconductor wafer foundry and customized chip manufacturing, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [7] - Vanke A signed a borrowing agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group for up to 4.2 billion yuan, using up to 6 billion yuan worth of stock as collateral [8] - Myp Medical is planning to acquire at least 51% of Easy Medical, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [10] - Hongming Co. is planning to purchase 83% of Shenzhen Chisu Automation Equipment for an estimated 151 million yuan, which will also constitute a major asset restructuring [12]

Group 1 - The State Financial Supervision Administration and seven other departments issued measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, emphasizing the establishment of a coordination mechanism for financing support [1] - The measures include conducting extensive visits to small and micro enterprises to assess their operational status and financing needs, facilitating direct access to bank credit [1] - There is a focus on addressing the operational difficulties faced by small and micro enterprises and encouraging support for key sectors such as foreign trade, private enterprises, technology, and consumption [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, a total of 130 domestic online games were approved by the National Press and Publication Administration [2] Group 3 - The State Council announced the removal of Wang Jianjun from the position of Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3] Group 4 - The Shanghai Municipal Government issued a plan to boost consumption, which includes measures to promote reasonable income growth and improve wage distribution mechanisms [4] - The plan aims to enhance the minimum wage adjustment mechanism and support the development of the rural economy and new business models [4] Group 5 - Shanghai is accelerating the introduction of childcare subsidies and maternity social security subsidies as part of its efforts to build a family-friendly society [5] - The city plans to explore increasing parental leave and spouse's paternity leave while enhancing the quality of public kindergartens [5] Group 6 - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China has the capability and confidence to handle external risks, including tariff wars, as evidenced by a 2.4% year-on-year increase in total goods import and export in the first four months of the year [6] - Exports grew by 7.5%, indicating strong international competitiveness despite high tariff barriers [6] Group 7 - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed strong opposition to the EU's unilateral sanctions against Chinese companies, emphasizing the need for fair trade practices [8] - The ministry highlighted that normal business interactions between Chinese and Russian companies should not be disrupted by these sanctions [8] Group 8 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced trading arrangements for the Dragon Boat Festival period, with a market closure from May 31 to June 2, 2025, and a return to normal trading on June 3 [9] Group 9 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical set the issuance price for its H-shares at HKD 44.05 per share [11] - Xinyuan Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11] - The company Guokai Microelectronics is planning a major asset restructuring, leading to a suspension of its stock from May 22 [11]