春糖期间水井坊在成都召开战略发布会，对品牌主张、营销策略、产品矩阵和渠道打法进行了全体系的 最新阐述。我们认为，水井坊是当下行业中较为稳健、务实的公司，这一特质也是当下调整期酒企的核 心竞争优势。本次发布会后，我们看到公司高管团队稳定性提升，内外部士气信心较足。此外，在制定 了较为清晰的品牌战略、梳理了产品线，并制定了详尽且可执行的渠道开拓方案后，公司战略方向更为 清晰，竞争优势有望强化。 公司首次提出"喝美酒，庆美事，国保美酒"的品牌主张，强调美酒与美好时刻的深度绑定，满足"对白 酒有要求，挑剔的消费者"的需求，将白酒从功能性消费升级为情感体验。我们认为，公司一直拥有较 为精致的品牌调性，通过打造"国保美酒"概念，并强化与消费者的沟通，有望形成品牌差异化并占领消 费者心智。 打造"水井坊+第一坊"双品牌运作，推出第一坊高端新品。过去公司产品梯次相对模糊，价格跨度大， 消费者难以区隔。本次发布会开启"水井坊+第一坊"双品牌运作模式，"水井坊"定位300-800 元，聚焦宴 席、节庆场景，主张"喝美酒，庆美事"，井台升级，通过序列感展示产品梯度，希望能够与八号形成双 轮驱动。"第一坊"定位高端（千元价格带），以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the white liquor industry, which is nearing a cyclical bottom, supported by improving economic indicators and consumer confidence [8][12] - The new management is actively reforming the product and market strategy, aiming to enhance brand positioning and market penetration [28][34] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 2.76, 3.03, and 3.42 yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5,218 million, 5,683 million, and 6,345 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.3%, 8.9%, and 11.6% respectively [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 82% for 2024-2026, while net profit margin is projected to be approximately 25.7% to 26.3% [6] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 18.5 in 2024 to 14.9 in 2026, indicating a potential for upward valuation [6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with key indicators such as real estate transactions and consumer spending improving [12][14] - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, which has helped maintain performance during industry downturns [35] - The core consumption scene for mid-range liquor is showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in restaurant revenue [42][46] Strategic Initiatives - The new management is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "Shuijingfang" and "Diyifang," targeting both mid-range and high-end markets [28][34] - The company is implementing a city-specific strategy to enhance market penetration and adapt to local conditions [34] - The proactive inventory management approach has positioned the company favorably against competitors during challenging market conditions [35]

舞台上的呼吁并非个例。市面上好酒众多，品质都不错，但消费者究竟该作何选择？当手握预算却无从下手时，"选择困难 症"正在成为白酒行业的新痛点。 当买酒变成技术活，"水井坊+第一坊"以"走心"为指南穿透选择迷雾 "选酒太难了！"33岁的张伟（化名）对记者表达自己的困惑。这位成都某互联网公司的中层管理者，去年为父亲六十大寿选酒 时，曾在超市货架前徘徊半小时："同一个品牌分什么不同酒体年份、酒体品质，根本搞不懂区别。售货员问我要什么场合喝， 又说不出个所以然，最后只能看价格盲选，结果家里人觉得不够用心。" 张伟的烦恼比比皆是。走进成都某大型零售商场酒水区，45岁的销售主管王芳（化名）见证了太多类似的"张伟时刻"："现在年 轻人买酒会做功课，但最后往往可能就是随便选一款。"这种结局背后的根本原因，是消费场景需求与白酒品牌价值定位之间的 （图注：水井坊·第一坊2025年战略发布大会现场） 3月的成都糖酒会，空气里飘着酒香与火锅味。在这个已成为消费者与行业同庆节日，一个特别的白酒战略发布会召开了。没有 明星站台，没有数据轰炸，取而代之的是一场对消费者选酒、用酒难题的直面回应。 "不同的款有什么区别吗？反正看起来都长得差不多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [1][5] Core Insights - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on product upgrades and market segmentation to achieve a leap in development over the next three to five years [5] - The introduction of the new high-end brand "Diyifang" aims to enhance brand positioning and capture market demand, particularly in group purchasing channels [5] - The company plans to refine its market strategy by categorizing cities into fortress, pioneer, and potential markets, allowing for tailored operational strategies [5] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,953 million yuan in 2023 to 6,238 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.3% in 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,269 million yuan in 2023 to 1,682 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 17.7% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.60 yuan in 2023 to 3.45 yuan in 2026 [1] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on high-end product launches and enhancing its brand image through the "Diyifang" and "Shuijingfang" brands, with a clear strategy to differentiate products based on quality and pricing [5] - The company has a robust channel quality compared to competitors, with inventory levels maintained at a healthy 2-2.5 months [5]

春糖期间公司召开2025 年战略发布大会，战略叙事全面重塑进阶，推新品、用新政，也与资本市场坦 诚交流，核心是在当前基础上，绘制三到五年跨越式发展蓝图，产品端全面序列化重塑升级、发布第一 坊高端新品，市场端进一步精细划分布局。我们前往参会，核心反馈如下： 中低档布局天号陈，占比约5%非战略重心，短期承接降档需求表现较优。 市场端三级精细划分，一地一策加强突破，堡垒市场是当前发展重心。公司根据市场容量/发展阶段/竞 争格局等将全国地级市划分为堡垒、先锋、潜力三大类别，一地一策差异化运营，以铺货、宴席、团购 为主要抓手，摒弃此前"一刀切"提升精细化运作与资源配置效率。具体来看： 堡垒市场（规模1 亿+）：约15-20 个，主要为公司优势市场，市占率及过往增速较好，计划布局全线产 品，加强精耕细作与资源倾斜，维护核心门店并挖掘基础/长尾客群，加大投入拓展宴席，并新增团购 商。堡垒市场是今年拓展重心，后续率先推进渠道改革试点； 先锋市场（规模5000 万-1 亿）：约60-80 个，重点布局井台+臻酿八号，同步拓展核心及长尾门店，采 取差异化方案引流转化宴席场景； 产品全面序列化重塑升级，"水井坊+第一坊"双品牌卡位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly for the liquor sector, indicating a positive outlook based on policy support and expected recovery in demand [1]. Core Insights - China's consumption policies are positively oriented, leading to an uplift in expectations for the liquor industry. The government has emphasized the need to boost consumption and expand domestic demand through various initiatives [7][32]. - The liquor industry's performance is expected to show differentiation, with a forecast of a "front low and back high" trend for the year, as demand gradually recovers and the previous year's low base effects come into play [7][32]. - Liquor valuations are currently below historical averages, suggesting potential for recovery as market sentiment improves amid easing external uncertainties [7][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Positive Policy Orientation and Liquor Recovery Expectations - The report highlights that recent government meetings have focused on boosting consumption and investment efficiency, which is expected to positively impact the liquor market [7][32]. - The liquor market has experienced a three-year adjustment period, and the current economic recovery is anticipated to drive the liquor cycle upward [15][32]. 2. Liquor Sales Stability and Confidence Boosting Measures - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a decline of approximately 10% year-on-year, but there are signs of improvement in demand post-holiday [36]. - Companies are implementing inventory control measures to stabilize prices during the off-season, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [33][38]. - High-end liquor prices are expected to remain stable, with key brands maintaining their pricing strategies amid positive consumption policies [39]. 3. Market Dynamics and Company Strategies - The report notes that leading liquor companies are adopting pragmatic strategies focused on stability and quality, with many emphasizing consumer-centric approaches in their business models [44][46]. - Several companies, including Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, are actively engaging in share buybacks and increasing their holdings to bolster market confidence [48]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as regional brands showing strong sales performance [7][32]. - It also recommends monitoring companies that have experienced significant declines and may be poised for recovery, such as Shede Liquor and Shui Jing Fang [7][32].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic initiatives of Shui Jing Fang in response to the evolving white liquor market, emphasizing a dual-brand strategy and targeted marketing approaches to enhance sales performance [3][4][5]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - Shui Jing Fang has launched a dual-brand strategy, combining "Shui Jing Fang" and "Di Yi Fang" to target both mid-range and high-end markets, aiming to leverage brand synergy for value enhancement [5][6]. - The company is focusing on consumer-defined value in the current market, shifting from a producer-led approach to one that emphasizes quality, brand, and service [4][5]. - The strategic adjustments are driven by changes in consumer behavior, with a notable increase in demand for specific social occasions and emotional consumption scenarios [5][6]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Performance - Shui Jing Fang reported a projected net profit of approximately 134.08 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 6%, and an expected revenue of around 521.67 million yuan, up by approximately 5% [6]. - The company is implementing a "one city, one policy" approach to optimize resource allocation and enhance sales effectiveness across different markets [6][7]. - The strategic focus includes improving operational efficiency through digital platforms and supporting distributors in store expansion and management [7]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Marketing - The company aims to create a sales activation system centered around key consumption scenarios such as banquets and group purchases, which are critical for maintaining market share [7]. - Shui Jing Fang plans to integrate marketing strategies with local cultural and consumption habits during major festivals to enhance brand storytelling and consumer connection [5][6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic response of Shui Jing Fang to the current adjustment period in the Chinese liquor industry, focusing on creating new consumption scenarios and a dual-brand system to adapt to changing consumer demands [1][3][4]. Brand Strategy - Shui Jing Fang aims to shape a new market scenario with the concept of "drinking fine wine to celebrate beautiful moments," targeting the mid-to-high-end market while also developing unique high-end products [1][14]. - The company is establishing a dual-brand system consisting of "Shui Jing Fang" for the mid-range market and "Di Yi Fang" for the high-end market, allowing for differentiated positioning and consumer targeting [16][19]. Consumer Insights - The shift in consumer behavior is highlighted, with a move away from traditional business-oriented consumption towards emotional connections in social settings, such as family gatherings and celebrations [10][12]. - The concept of "emotional value" is emphasized, where consumers seek not just quality products but also meaningful experiences that enhance their social interactions [10][12]. Market Positioning - Shui Jing Fang's core product, Zhen Niang No. 8, has successfully captured a significant market share, contributing over 80% of revenue, indicating strong competitive positioning in the mid-range segment [22][23]. - The company plans to refine its product offerings across different price ranges, focusing on both high-end and mid-range markets to meet diverse consumer needs [23]. Channel Strategy - The company is implementing a new channel strategy to address the challenges posed by high inventory levels and competitive pressures, emphasizing a tailored approach based on local market conditions [24][25]. - Shui Jing Fang is enhancing its collaboration with distributors, providing them with tools and resources to optimize store performance and improve sales efficiency [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant supply-side adjustment, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye adopting low-key strategies during the Chengdu Spring Sugar Conference, indicating a "bottoming out" phase for the industry [1][2][4][11] Industry Adjustments - The Spring Sugar Conference has become a platform for supply-side experiments, reflecting a deep adjustment in the liquor industry that is believed to exceed previous cycles [1][4] - Major liquor companies are focusing on inventory optimization and price control rather than aggressive marketing and expansion [5][10] Brand Strategies - Moutai has simplified its exhibition strategy, reducing the number of showcased products and focusing on brand display rather than extensive product promotion [2][3] - Wuliangye has canceled its hotel exhibition, signaling a shift in strategy among traditional liquor giants [3] Market Dynamics - The liquor market is experiencing a polarization, with top brands reducing marketing efforts while smaller brands engage in aggressive promotions [5][6] - The industry is facing severe challenges, including inventory buildup and price declines, with Moutai's price dropping from 3000 yuan to around 2200 yuan [9][10] Consumer Behavior - There is a shift in consumer expectations towards quality, brand, and cultural values, prompting a need for supply-side reforms [4][7] - The trend of "dual red envelope" marketing is being reconsidered, with some companies moving towards direct consumer engagement strategies [8][9] Future Outlook - The industry is in a transitional phase, with a focus on brand strength and market research rather than immediate sales [3][6] - Analysts suggest that while the industry may have shown signs of bottoming out, the future remains uncertain, particularly for smaller enterprises [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating that the overall upward risk outweighs the downward risk, especially with the current low positioning of the sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a "corporate agony period," with signs of a bottom reversal established. The report suggests that while performance may be under pressure in the next two quarters, stock prices are expected to rebound [1][7][27]. - High-end liquor and strong regional brands are anticipated to lead the market recovery, with a particular focus on the evolution of Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][7][42]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Historical Review of the Industry - The previous adjustment period from 2012 to 2015 saw stock prices decline ahead of performance, with a notable drop of 61% in the index from its peak [11][16]. - The report outlines two phases during the last cycle: the "channel agony period" and the "corporate agony period," highlighting how stock prices often lead performance by 2-3 quarters [11][20]. Section 2: Current Cycle Analysis - The current cycle has transitioned from a "channel agony period" starting in 2022 to a "corporate agony period," with inventory levels decreasing and market conditions improving [7][27]. - The report notes that the current adjustment has been less severe than the previous one, with the index experiencing a 45% decline from its peak, compared to a more rapid decline in the earlier cycle [27][30]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong market dynamics and improved strategic capabilities, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to outperform due to their robust distribution networks and mature pricing strategies [1][7][42]. - It also highlights the potential for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye to benefit from the recovery, as they have historically led rebounds in previous cycles [1][42]. Section 4: Market Performance Metrics - The report provides data on the industry scale, noting 143 listed companies with a total market value of 5,313 billion [3]. - It also includes performance metrics, indicating a 6.3% absolute performance over one month and a 37.6% performance over six months [5].