Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions [4][16]. Core Insights - In July, the national electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, reaching 10,226 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [4][7]. - The increase in electricity consumption was primarily driven by urban and rural residents, contributing 38% to the total growth, with significant contributions from the secondary and tertiary industries as well [8][9]. - The report highlights the impact of high temperatures on electricity demand, noting that July was the hottest month since 1961, which significantly boosted residential electricity usage [8][9]. - Natural gas prices in Europe have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, while prices in Asia and the US have decreased, indicating a mixed market environment [16][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the biomass energy sector following the introduction of new methodologies for carbon emissions reduction [4][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity - July's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kWh, marking a historic milestone with an 8.6% year-on-year growth [4][7]. - The first, second, and third industries, along with urban and rural residents, contributed to the overall electricity consumption growth, with the second industry showing a recovery in electricity usage [8][9]. - Recommendations include investing in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, and thermal power companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International [14][15]. Natural Gas - The report notes a stable supply-demand balance in the natural gas market, with US prices dropping to $2.76/mmBtu, while European prices have seen fluctuations due to geopolitical risks [16][20]. - Recommendations for investment include companies in the city gas sector and integrated natural gas traders, highlighting firms like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [41][42]. Environmental Sector - The introduction of new methodologies for biomass energy projects is expected to enhance profitability, with a focus on companies like Evergreen Group and China Everbright [4][16]. Market Performance - The report reviews market performance from August 18 to August 22, indicating that the gas, public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Guoneng (Shenyang) Thermal Power Co., Ltd. indicates a strategic move in the energy sector, focusing on power generation and supply services [1] Company Summary - Guoneng (Shenyang) Thermal Power Co., Ltd. was established on August 23 with a registered capital of 1 billion RMB [1] - The company is fully owned by Beijing Guodian Power Co., Ltd., which is held approximately 57% by Guodian Power (600795) and 43% by China Shenhua (601088) [1] - The operational scope includes power generation, transmission, distribution, heating services, and research in emerging energy technologies [1]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 风险提示：电价不及预期，来水不及预期，煤价上涨超预期。 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 180,999 | 179,182 | 169,500 | 173,053 | 172,481 | | 同比增长率（%） | -7.02% | -1.00% | -5.40% | 2.10% | -0.33% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,609 | 9,831 | 6,809 | 7,614 | 7,901 | | 同比增长率（%） | 98.80% | 75.28% | -30.74% | 11.81% | 3.78% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.44 | | ROE（%） | 11.50% | 17.54% | 11.59% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guodian Power (600795) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The company is expected to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 60% in the next three years, with a proposed cash dividend of no less than 0.22 CNY per share (including tax) [4][10] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, the company has shown strong operational profit growth, particularly in non-recurring profit adjustments [7][10] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 77.65 billion CNY, down 9.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.69 billion CNY, down 45.1% year-on-year [4][10] - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 37.84 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.88 billion CNY, down 62% year-on-year [4][10] - The company reported a significant increase in non-recurring net profit in Q2 2025, primarily due to a 4.6 billion CNY investment gain from the transfer of Guodian Investment Inner Mongolia Energy Company [7][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 177.9 billion CNY, 185.7 billion CNY, and 186.9 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.14 billion CNY, 7.63 billion CNY, and 8.24 billion CNY [9][10] - The expected diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.40 CNY, 0.43 CNY, and 0.46 CNY respectively [9][10] Market Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the current stock price is 4.79 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 4.07 CNY to 6.02 CNY [3][11] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 85.43 billion CNY [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electricity and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment [5]. Core Insights - In July, the national electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, reaching 10,226 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [10][11]. - The increase in electricity consumption was primarily driven by urban and rural residents, contributing 38% to the total growth, while the secondary and tertiary industries contributed 33% and 25%, respectively [11]. - The report highlights the impact of high temperatures in July, which were 1.3°C above the historical average, leading to increased electricity demand from residential sectors [11]. - In the gas sector, European gas prices have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, while Asian and US gas prices have declined [19][30]. - The report suggests that the gas supply-demand balance remains loose, with US gas production at historical highs, contributing to lower prices [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: July National Electricity Consumption Exceeds 1 Trillion kWh - The national electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kWh in July, marking a historic milestone [10]. - The first industry saw a 20.2% increase in electricity consumption, while the second and third industries grew by 4.7% and 10.7%, respectively [12]. - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to July was 58,633 billion kWh, a 4.5% year-on-year increase [14]. 2. Gas: Gas Supply-Demand Remains Loose, Geopolitical Tensions Affect European Gas Prices - As of August 22, the Henry Hub spot price in the US was $2.76/mmBtu, a weekly decrease of 7.19% [19]. - The TTF spot price in Europe rose to €33.10/MWh, reflecting an 8.17% increase due to geopolitical tensions [20]. - The report notes that European gas inventories are significantly lower than last year and the five-year average, raising concerns about supply stability [30]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the gas, public utilities, electricity, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index during the period from August 18 to August 22 [47]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the release of a notice regarding the bidding arrangement for new energy projects in Gansu Province, indicating ongoing developments in the renewable energy sector [54]. - Key announcements from companies such as Guodian Power and Kunlun Energy highlight their financial performance and strategic initiatives [55][58]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the public utility sector, indicating buy ratings for several firms, including China Nuclear Power and Huaneng International [59].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guodian Power (600795), has announced a robust cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, ensuring a minimum of 60% of net profit will be distributed as dividends, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns despite short-term revenue pressures [1][2]. Dividend Plan - The cash dividend plan stipulates that for the next three years, the total cash dividend (including interim dividends) will not be less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, provided that profits and cumulative undistributed profits are positive, and there are no significant investment plans exceeding 10% of total assets (approximately 51 billion) within 12 months [2]. - If the distributable profits are insufficient to meet the dividend standards, the company will supplement from cumulative undistributed profits [2]. - As of June 2025, the company reported cumulative undistributed profits of 54.018 billion, along with 68.7 billion in cash and financial assets, providing a solid financial cushion for the high dividend commitment [2]. Shareholder Rights Protection - The plan includes multiple mechanisms to protect the rights of minority shareholders, such as allowing independent directors to gather opinions from minority shareholders and submit dividend proposals for board review [3]. - The company will communicate with shareholders through various channels before the general meeting to address their concerns [3]. - Any adjustments to the dividend policy must be approved by at least two-thirds of the voting rights at the shareholders' meeting, ensuring stability and transparency in the dividend system [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase of 56% in net profit after deducting non-recurring items, indicating strong operational resilience despite short-term revenue fluctuations [4]. - The growth is attributed to cost optimization in the thermal power sector and the expansion of renewable energy, with solar power being the primary contributor to new installations and a substantial increase in generation volume [4]. - The renewable energy segment has become a crucial growth driver, with net profit from wind and solar surpassing 30%, making it the second-largest profit source after thermal power [4]. - The company has ample projects under construction and in reserve, with clear targets for new installations, laying the groundwork for long-term profitability and dividend fulfillment [4]. - The company's 60% dividend floor is significantly higher than the industry average, and its stable profitability, supported by long-term coal contracts and over 20% of installed capacity from renewables, enhances the sustainability of high dividends [4]. - Based on the current stock price and a minimum dividend of 0.22 per share, the company’s dividend yield could reach 6.18%, which is approximately 1.5 times higher than the industry average [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Daan Project by State Power Investment Corporation demonstrates a sustainable method for ammonia production using renewable energy, significantly reducing carbon emissions compared to traditional fossil fuel methods [10][11]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Daan Project commenced construction in May 2023 and was completed and put into operation on July 26, 2023 [10]. - It utilizes 800 MW of renewable energy generation capacity (700 MW wind and 100 MW solar) to produce 32,000 tons of green hydrogen and 180,000 tons of green ammonia annually, saving approximately 230,000 tons of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 500,000 households [10][11]. Group 2: Industry Context - China's renewable energy sector is rapidly growing, with projected cumulative installed capacity reaching 1.41 billion kW by the end of 2024, contributing over 60% to the growth in electricity generation [11]. - The Daan Project aims to address the mismatch between renewable energy generation and grid consumption capacity, particularly the challenges of "curtailment" during peak generation periods [12]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The project integrates a full industrial chain from "green electricity to green hydrogen to green ammonia," overcoming technical challenges in energy conversion and storage [13][14]. - It employs a combination of alkaline and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis technologies for hydrogen production, achieving a 10% reduction in overall electricity consumption compared to traditional methods [16][17]. - The project features the world's largest solid-state hydrogen storage system, allowing for safe and efficient long-term hydrogen storage [17][18]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - A flexible control system has been developed to optimize the entire production process, enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy utilization and addressing the variability of renewable sources [20][21]. - Since its launch, the Daan Project has produced over 1,900 tons of green ammonia, showcasing its operational success and potential as a replicable model for renewable energy integration [21].

事件：公司发布2025 年半年度报告，2025 年H1 公司实现营业收入776.55亿元，同比-9.52%；实现归母 净利润36.87 亿元，同比-45.11%；实现扣非归母净利润34.10 亿元，同比+56.12%。其中，2025 年Q2 公 司实现营业收入378.42 亿元，同比-6.04%；分别实现归母净利润和扣非归母净利润18.76和18.03 亿元， 同比分别-61.96%和+302.47%。 发电业务量价齐跌，营业收入同比下滑。根据公司发布的2025 年上半年电量情况公告，2025 年H1 公司 合并报表口径完成上网电量1958.01 亿千瓦时，可比口径较上年同期-1.96%；其中2025 年Q2 公司合并 报表口径完成上网电量1008.66 亿千瓦时，可比口径较上年同期+0.48%。分类型看，2025年H1 公司火 电/水电/风电/光伏的上网电量分别同比变化-7.51%/-6.44%/+11.11%/+122.83%，其中火电电量下滑主要 系受新能源装机增长挤压火电需求以及国电建设对外转让影响。价格方面，2025 年H1 公司发电业务的 平均上网电价为409.70 元/兆瓦时，同比下滑2.95 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the power sector [6]. Core Views - Leading power companies have announced dividend commitments, enhancing expectations for shareholder returns and reinforcing the dividend advantage of the power sector, which is considered to have long-term investment value [4][16]. - In July, solar power installations added 11 GW, while wind and solar installations saw a continued decline compared to June. As of the end of July, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [4][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - Leading power enterprises have released dividend plans, strengthening dividend expectations and enhancing the high dividend value of the power sector. For instance, Changjiang Power announced a profit distribution plan for 2026-2030, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with an expected dividend yield of 3.5% for 2025 [4][16]. - Guodian Power also announced a cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum cash dividend of 0.22 RMB per share, leading to an expected dividend yield of 5.3% for 2025 [4][16]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3825.76 points, up 3.49%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4378.00 points, up 4.18%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3051.63 points, up 1.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.58 percentage points [54][55]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued green power sectors, particularly in Hong Kong and wind power operators. Specific companies to watch include Xintian Green Energy (H), Zhongmin Energy, and Funeng Shares. It also suggests monitoring flexible thermal power companies such as Huaneng International and Huadian International, as well as leaders in thermal power flexibility transformation like Qingda Environmental Protection and Huaguang Huaneng [4][16]. Installed Capacity Data - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed capacity for solar power reached 1.11 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%, while wind power capacity reached 570 million kilowatts, up 22.1% year-on-year. However, the monthly additions for solar and wind power saw a decline compared to June [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on power generation assets in regions with tight supply-demand balance and favorable competition dynamics, particularly recommending companies like Sheneng Co. and Huadian International in the thermal power sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of dividend yield in investment strategies, particularly in the public utility sector, where companies like Yangtze Power and Guodian Power are expected to increase their dividend payouts significantly over the next few years [4][40]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index increased by 5.85% during the week of August 18-22. The carbon neutrality sector saw a 4.35% increase, while the public utility sector rose by 1.75% [12]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance issued guidelines to regulate the construction and operation of existing PPP projects, aiming to enhance efficiency and public service levels [66]. - The National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in July reached 10,226 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [66]. Investment Recommendations - **Thermal Power Sector**: Focus on companies with assets in regions with tight supply-demand and good competition dynamics, such as Anhui Energy and Huadian International [4]. - **Hydropower**: Recommend leading hydropower operator Yangtze Power due to stable electricity prices and regional supply-demand tightness [4]. - **Nuclear Power**: Suggest investing in China National Nuclear Power, which is expected to benefit from stable electricity prices and high dividend capabilities [4]. - **Renewable Energy**: Highlight Longyuan Power as a leading wind power operator to watch [4]. - **Environmental Sector**: Recommend Yuhua Tian as a leading urban comprehensive operation management service provider [4].