Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their potential benefits from recent developments [3][4]. Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is expected to significantly boost demand for hydropower equipment, benefiting leading companies in the sector [4][14]. - The report highlights a decline in European and Asian gas prices due to varying supply and demand dynamics, suggesting a potential opportunity for gas companies [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yarlung Tsangpo Downstream Hydropower Project Commencement - The Yarlung Tsangpo River has substantial hydropower resources, with a theoretical capacity of 113 million kilowatts, making it one of the richest rivers in Tibet [8]. - The project involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, primarily for power transmission outside Tibet [9][10]. - The project is expected to create a demand for hydropower equipment, with estimated annual orders of 4 billion yuan for Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, ensuring stable long-term performance for these companies [14][16]. 2. Gas: Global Supply and Demand Variations - As of July 18, the Henry Hub spot price in the US was $3.57/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 7.57%, while European gas prices showed a decline [17][19]. - The report notes that despite high temperatures increasing gas demand in the US, the overall supply remains stable, leading to a mixed outlook for gas prices [20][26]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [37]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the public utility, power, power equipment, environmental protection, and gas sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index during the week [41]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives in Qingdao aim to accelerate the development of non-fossil energy and offshore wind projects, indicating a supportive policy environment for renewable energy [45]. - The report also highlights significant developments in nuclear power and energy storage projects in various provinces, showcasing ongoing investments in clean energy [47][48]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the public utility and environmental sectors, providing insights into their market positions and potential for growth [51].

消息面上，7月19日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程在西藏林芝正式开工。据了解，该工程采用截弯取直、隧洞引水模式，规划建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2 万亿元，电力以对外输送为主、兼顾西藏本地需求。作为国家级超级工程，其开工将推动西藏经济发展与能源结构优化，同时带动民爆、掘进等细分行业需 求增长。 中信证券认为，随着雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程的持续建设，将长期利好水电配套设备、电网外送工程核心设备等头部供应商。中信建投证券称，去年下半年 以来，中央层面多次强调整治"内卷式"竞争，治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出。而目前光伏、锂电均处于盈利底部，其中光伏亏损更为明 显，"反内卷"有望成为推动新能源行业中长期盈利修复的关键推动力。 截至7月18日，央企现代能源ETF近6月净值上涨2.16%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月18日，央企现代能源ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为10.03%，最长 连涨月数为7个月，最长连涨涨幅为23.43%，涨跌月数比为13/10，上涨月份平均收益率为3.05%，年盈利百分比为100.00%，历史持有1年盈利概率为 66.10%。截至2025年7月18日，央企现代能源ETF近3个月超越 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's hydropower generation increased by 2.85% year-on-year in Q2, but the growth rate has significantly narrowed. The average on-grid electricity price decreased by approximately 0.017 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 0.350 yuan per kilowatt-hour, primarily due to a reduction in the proportion of high-priced thermal power generation and a decline in long-term trading prices for thermal power in some regions. The overall performance of the clean energy sector is expected to be suppressed due to weak water and wind conditions, alongside a year-on-year drop in electricity prices [2][12] - The company's thermal power generation decreased by 8.10% year-on-year in Q2, influenced by an increase in clean energy generation in the region and higher external electricity sales. However, cost improvements are expected to support the thermal power performance, leading to a stable outlook for the company's Q2 performance [2][12] - The company is advancing its integrated hydropower, wind, and solar projects in the Yalong River basin, with a total potential hydropower capacity of approximately 30 million kilowatts. As of 2024, 19.2 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity has been put into operation, with additional projects under construction. The company maintains a broad development space while adhering to the principle of "efficiency first" in investment management [12] Summary by Sections Operating Data - In Q2 2025, the company's cumulative power generation reached 38.067 billion kilowatt-hours, with on-grid electricity of 37.074 billion kilowatt-hours, representing increases of 0.52% and 0.59% year-on-year, respectively [6] Financial Forecast - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.90 yuan, 0.99 yuan, and 1.05 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 16.57 times, 15.04 times, and 14.15 times, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [12][16]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose later, while the China Securities Public Utilities Index fell by 0.26% to 2486.53 points with a trading volume of 9.421 billion yuan [1] - The China Securities Public Utilities Index has decreased by 1.23% over the past month, increased by 0.59% over the past three months, and has declined by 3.17% year-to-date [2] - The top ten weights in the China Securities Public Utilities Index are: Changjiang Electric Power (15.15%), China Nuclear Power (10.46%), Three Gorges Energy (8.35%), Guodian Power (5.66%), State Power Investment (4.81%), Chuanwei Energy (4.29%), Yongtai Energy (4.2%), Huaneng International (4.15%), China General Nuclear Power (3.92%), and Zhejiang Energy Power (2.8%) [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Public Utilities Index consists entirely of public utility companies, with a sample adjustment occurring every six months [3] - The market share of the China Securities Public Utilities Index is 83.15% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 16.85% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - Adjustments to the index sample occur on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, with weight factors generally remaining fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Low Carbon Economy Theme Index has shown mixed performance, with a recent decline but positive growth over the past month and three months, indicating a volatile but potentially promising investment area in the low-carbon sector [1][2] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Low Carbon Economy Theme Index closed down 0.9% at 1583.71 points, with a trading volume of 36.979 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 7.35%, and by 10.32% over the last three months, while it has decreased by 1.71% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises companies involved in clean energy generation, energy conversion and storage, clean production and consumption, and waste treatment [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: CATL (15.42%), Yangtze Power (14.38%), Sungrow Power (6.18%), LONGi Green Energy (5.51%), China National Nuclear Power (4.37%), Three Gorges Energy (3.5%), TBEA (3.49%), EVE Energy (3.1%), Tongwei Co. (3.09%), and Guotou Power (2.01%) [1] Group 3: Market Segmentation - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (51.54%), followed by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (48.04%), and a small portion on the Beijing Stock Exchange (0.43%) [1] - In terms of industry distribution, the index's sample shows that 69.10% is in the industrial sector, while 30.90% is in public utilities [2] Group 4: Fund Tracking - Several public funds track the China Securities Low Carbon Economy Theme Index, including: Huaxia CSI Low Carbon Economy Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Low Carbon Economy Theme ETF, Yinhua CSI Low Carbon Economy Theme ETF, and others [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai 180 risk-weighted index at 5107.99 points, showing a 2.82% increase over the past month, a 6.34% increase over the past three months, and a 2.48% increase year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai 180 risk-weighted index and the Shanghai 380 risk-weighted index are designed to equalize the risk contribution of each sample, allowing for risk diversification and a higher Sharpe ratio compared to market capitalization-weighted indices [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings in the Shanghai 180 risk-weighted index include: Yangtze Power (1.85%), China Construction Bank (1.77%), Agricultural Bank of China (1.62%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1.54%), Bank of China (1.34%), Sichuan Investment Energy (1.27%), Guotou Power (1.17%), Shandong High-Speed (1.12%), China Mobile (1.05%), and Ninghu Expressway (1.04%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry allocation, the financial sector accounts for 27.44%, industrial sector for 23.49%, utilities for 10.34%, materials for 9.22%, information technology for 8.17%, consumer discretionary for 5.83%, energy for 5.07%, healthcare for 4.28%, consumer staples for 3.22%, communication services for 2.55%, and real estate for 0.39% [2] - The index samples are adjusted quarterly, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day following the second Friday of March, June, September, and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

证券代码：600886 证券简称：国投电力 公告编号：2025-037 站流域来水同比减少。 部分火电所在区域清洁能源发电量增加，以及外送电量影响。 陆续投产多个风电项目。 陆续投产多个光伏项目。 - 2 - 平均上网电价同比下降的主要原因：一是电量结构变化，即火电上网电量下 降，电价较高部分对应电量比例降低；二是部分区域火电中长期交易价格下降； 三是无补贴新能源项目占比逐渐提高。 二、装机容量情况 国投电力控股股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、电量电价情况 根据国投电力控股股份有限公司（以下简称公司）初步统计，2025 年 4-6 月，公司控股企业累计完成发电量 380.67 亿千瓦时，上网电量 370.74 亿千瓦时， 与去年同期相比分别增加 0.52%和 0.59%。2025 年 1-6 月，公司控股企业累计完 成发电量 770.59 亿千瓦时，上网电量 751.78 亿千瓦时，与去年同期相比分别减 少 0.54%和 0.25%。 比减少 4.6%。2025 年 1-6 月,公司控股企业平 ...

根据国投电力控股股份有限公司（以下简称公司）初步统计，2025 年 4-6 月，公司控股企业累计完成发电量 380.67 亿千瓦时，上网电量 370.74 亿千瓦时， 与去年同期相比分别增加 0.52%和 0.59%。2025 年 1-6 月，公司控股企业累计完 成发电量 770.59 亿千瓦时，上网电量 751.78 亿千瓦时，与去年同期相比分别减 少 0.54%和 0.25%。 2025 年 4-6 月,公司控股企业平均上网电价 0.350 元/千瓦时,与去年同期相 比减少 4.6%。2025 年 1-6 月,公司控股企业平均上网电价 0.353 元/千瓦时,与去 年同期相比减少 6.4%。 - 1 - 证券代码：600886 证券简称：国投电力 公告编号：2025-037 国投电力控股股份有限公司 2025 年二季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、电量电价情况 部分火电所在区域清洁能源发电量增加，以及外送电量影响。 项 目 发电量 (亿千瓦时） 上网电量 （亿千瓦时） 本期 去年 同 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant safety incident occurred at the Huifeng New Energy's wind farm project in Guizhou, which is controlled by Guotou Electric Power, prompting an investigation by local authorities [2][3]. Company Overview - Guotou Electric Power is a major player in China's clean energy sector, primarily relying on hydropower, and is the third-largest listed company by hydropower installed capacity in the country [4]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 44.63 million kilowatts as of the end of 2024, with hydropower accounting for 21.30 million kilowatts, representing 47.73% of its total capacity [4][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Guotou Electric Power reported a revenue of 57.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, but net profit decreased by 0.92% to 6.64 billion yuan [5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in net profit, dropping by 90.01% to 0.65 billion yuan, primarily due to increased income tax expenses [5][6]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.99% to 13.12 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 2.10% to 2.08 billion yuan, driven by growth in hydropower generation [6]. Business Segmentation - The revenue from hydropower in 2024 was 26.62 billion yuan, accounting for 75.5% of total revenue, while the revenue from thermal power was 21.78 billion yuan, and from new energy sources was 4.85 billion yuan [6]. - The company’s hydropower segment showed a growth of 4.1% in revenue, while the new energy segment's revenue grew by 6.4% [6]. Debt and Financial Strategy - As of the end of 2024, Guotou Electric Power had significant liabilities, including short-term loans of 9.28 billion yuan and long-term loans of 117.79 billion yuan, leading to high interest expenses of 4.37 billion yuan [7]. - The capital-intensive nature of hydropower development necessitates substantial borrowing, which impacts profitability until projects become operational [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The increase in renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 510 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy by 2025 [2][6][19] - The transition of the aluminum electrolysis industry from monitoring to assessment will significantly boost the demand for non-hydropower green certificates, estimated at around 150 million certificates [7][26] - The inclusion of four major energy-consuming industries (steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers) into monitoring is projected to create a potential demand for approximately 800 million non-hydropower green certificates [8][29] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption will significantly increase in 2025, with unfulfilled portions not carried over to the next year. The new policy mandates that the responsibility weight must be completed within the year [6][17] - The "Three North" regions have a higher responsibility weight, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai set at 30%, while regions like Shanghai and Guangdong remain below 15% [18] Electrolytic Aluminum Green Power Consumption - The green power consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will shift from monitoring to assessment in 2025, leading to a significant increase in demand for non-hydropower green certificates [7][26] - The estimated demand for non-hydropower green certificates from the electrolytic aluminum sector is about 150 million certificates due to the new assessment requirements [26] Expansion of Monitoring to Other Industries - The addition of steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers into the monitoring framework is expected to create a substantial potential demand for green certificates, estimated at around 800 million certificates [8][29] - The projected total demand from these sectors could reach approximately 980 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy, accounting for about 53% of the 2024 new energy volume [34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is expected to expand significantly due to the assessment of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the inclusion of new energy-consuming sectors, while the supply side will see a reduction in the issuance of green certificates due to policy changes [8][34] - The overall market dynamics are anticipated to shift from a surplus supply to a more balanced state, providing long-term support for green certificate prices [8][34]