Group 1 - The People's Bank of China Jiangsu Branch and the National Financial Regulatory Administration Jiangsu Bureau announced the 2024 assessment results for banking institutions' services in rural revitalization, with Jiangsu Bank receiving an "excellent" rating for the fourth consecutive year, highlighting its significant contributions in this area [1] - Jiangsu Bank is enhancing financial support for the entire grain supply chain, aligning with the national food security strategy, and collaborating with government departments on major projects to boost rural revitalization [1] - Jiangsu Bank provided a timely loan of 2 million yuan to Wuxi Anyou Agricultural Ecological Co., Ltd. to support the purchase of agricultural machinery, demonstrating its role in facilitating local agricultural development [2] Group 2 - Jiangsu Bank focuses on empowering Jiangsu's characteristic industries by innovating financial products and services, supporting the upgrade of agricultural processing and equipment, and promoting the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [2] - The bank has expanded its financial services for rural revitalization by supporting diverse food supply systems, including edible mushroom cultivation and marine ranching [2] - Jiangsu Bank provided a credit line of 2 million yuan to Huai'an Qianrun Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. during a critical purchasing season, showcasing its effective support for rural enterprises [2]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape among listed city commercial banks has significantly changed in Q1 2025, with Beijing Bank maintaining its leading position in asset size, while Jiangsu Bank leads in revenue and net profit [1][2] - The total number of listed city commercial banks with assets exceeding 2 trillion yuan has increased to six, including Beijing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [1] - Strong credit growth has driven asset expansion and supported revenue growth for major city commercial banks [1][3] Group 1: Asset Size and Rankings - As of Q1 2025, Jiangsu Bank's asset size reached 4.46 trillion yuan, closely trailing Beijing Bank by 98 billion yuan [1] - Ningbo Bank's asset size increased to 3.40 trillion yuan, surpassing Shanghai Bank's 3.27 trillion yuan [1] - Nanjing Bank approached 2.8 trillion yuan, while Hangzhou Bank exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the revenues of Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Shanghai Bank were 223.04 billion yuan, 184.95 billion yuan, 171.27 billion yuan, 141.90 billion yuan, and 135.97 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.21%, 5.63%, -3.18%, 6.53%, and 3.85% respectively [2] - Jiangsu Bank's net profit reached 97.8 billion yuan, followed by Beijing Bank at 76.72 billion yuan and Ningbo Bank at 74.17 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Credit Growth and Interest Income - The significant increase in credit issuance has led to a rise in net interest income for several city commercial banks, with Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Ningbo Bank reporting net interest incomes of 165.92 billion yuan, 77.52 billion yuan, and 128.35 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The year-on-year growth rates for net interest income were 21.94% for Jiangsu Bank, 17.80% for Nanjing Bank, and 11.59% for Ningbo Bank [3] - The strong performance in public loans was noted, with Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Nanjing Bank showing increases of 17.08%, 13.49%, 9.75%, and 8.75% respectively [2]

Market Analysis - Historical reference to the market performance post-2018 tariffs indicates that industries focused on self-sufficiency, domestic demand expansion, and stable dividends performed well[4] - Future market risk appetite is expected to rise, contingent on policy changes, including potential liquidity releases from the Federal Reserve due to U.S. bond and stock market liquidity issues[4] Recommended Industries - Key industries recommended for investment include metals, chemicals, electricity, military, non-banking financials, banking, retail, social services, automotive, and computing[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with self-sufficiency, domestic demand expansion, and stable dividends amid macroeconomic disturbances[4] Stock Recommendations - **Metals**: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (EPS forecast: 1.92 in 2025, PE: 13.8) shows strong performance potential[22] - **Chemicals**: Yara International ASA (EPS forecast: 2.42 in 2025, PE: 12.2) is positioned for significant growth due to its overseas potassium mining operations[22] - **Electricity**: Zhongmin Energy (EPS forecast: 0.36 in 2025, PE: 15.7) benefits from favorable wind resources in Fujian Province[22] - **Military**: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (EPS forecast: 1.44 in 2025, PE: 29.7) is expected to see steady growth driven by new aircraft models[22] - **Non-Banking Financials**: New China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (EPS forecast: 7.36 in 2025, PE: 6.5) has a strong leverage position in the market[22] - **Banking**: Jiangsu Bank (EPS forecast: 1.74 in 2025, PE: 6.0) offers high dividend yield and stable growth prospects[22] - **Retail**: Yiwu Small Commodity City (EPS forecast: 0.75 in 2025, PE: 20.7) is set to benefit from international trade reforms[22] - **Social Services**: Core International (EPS forecast: 1.46 in 2025, PE: 22.5) is leveraging AI for enhanced operational efficiency[22] - **Automotive**: Xiaomi Group (EPS forecast: 1.37 in 2025, PE: 34.7) is expected to see significant sales growth in electric vehicles[22] - **Computing**: Cambricon Technologies (EPS forecast: 2.74 in 2025, PE: 257.5) is positioned to benefit from the growing AI chip market[22]

Core Viewpoint - The overall credit growth in China's banking sector has slowed from double digits to single digits, primarily due to insufficient demand, especially from the household sector. However, some regional banks in the Yangtze River Delta continue to show robust credit growth due to local economic vitality [1]. Group 1: Credit Demand and Growth - Insufficient credit demand, particularly from the residential sector, has led to a slowdown in overall credit growth in China's banking industry [1]. - Regional banks in the Yangtze River Delta, such as city commercial banks, have maintained stable credit growth due to strong local economic activity [1][2]. Group 2: Asset Scale Changes - The asset scale rankings among city commercial banks in the Yangtze River Delta have shifted, with Jiangsu Bank reaching a scale of 4 trillion yuan, surpassing Beijing Bank to become the second-largest city commercial bank in China [3]. - Ningbo Bank has overtaken Shanghai Bank, with asset totals of 3.4 trillion yuan and 3.27 trillion yuan, respectively, as of the end of Q1 [3][6]. Group 3: Q1 Performance Highlights - Q1 is typically a peak period for commercial bank lending, contributing significantly to overall credit growth. Despite a general slowdown, banks in the Yangtze River Delta achieved an average asset growth rate of 7% in Q1 [4]. - Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank reported significant asset growth, with Jiangsu Bank leading with a 12.84% increase [6]. Group 4: Interest Income and Revenue Growth - Net interest income for banks in the Yangtze River Delta has seen substantial growth, with Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank all reporting double-digit increases [8]. - The average revenue growth for city commercial banks in the Yangtze River Delta was approximately 5% in Q1, outperforming the average growth of 1.59% for listed city commercial banks [11]. Group 5: Non-Interest Income and Investment Gains - Non-interest income, particularly from investment gains, has also shown strong performance, with Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Nanjing Bank reporting investment income growth around 30% [12]. - Investment income has become a significant contributor to overall revenue, with some banks achieving over 100% growth in this area [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's Q1 2025 revenue growth was 6.2%, with net profit growth of 8.2%. The significant increase in net interest income by 21.9% was attributed to stable interest margins and strong asset expansion. Total assets grew by 12.8% compared to the beginning of the year, with loans increasing by 8.0% and deposits rising by 14.2% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Jiangsu Bank's net interest income increased by 21.9%, leading to an unexpected revenue growth. Non-interest income decreased by 22.7% year-on-year due to a high base last year, but fee income grew by 21.8%. Investment income and other non-interest revenues declined by 32.7% due to market fluctuations and last year's high base [11][12]. Scale and Growth - The bank demonstrated strong deposit-taking capabilities, with total assets increasing by 12.8% in Q1 2025. Loans grew by 8.0%, with corporate loans increasing by 13.5%. Deposits rose by 14.2%, with corporate deposits growing by 14.4%. The bank expects to maintain a loan growth rate of over 10% for the year [11][12]. Interest Margin - The cost of liabilities is improving rapidly, alleviating pressure on interest margins. The interest margin is expected to stabilize and rise compared to the 2024 annual rate of 1.86%. The bank's focus on high-yield quality projects and the absence of interest rate cuts from policymakers are supporting asset yield [11][12]. Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality indicators improved, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreasing by 3 basis points to 0.86% at the end of Q1 2025. The coverage ratio slightly declined but remains robust at 344%. The bank is closely monitoring retail risk changes due to rising retail sector risks [11][12]. Investment Recommendation - Jiangsu Bank offers a high dividend yield of 5.3%, which is among the highest in the sector, and is currently undervalued with a price-to-book ratio of 0.74x. The bank's stable dividend payout ratio of 30% of net profit is expected to continue, making it a strong investment recommendation [11][12].

Core Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, 14 out of 17 A-share listed city commercial banks reported positive revenue growth, with an average growth rate of 2.96%, a decline from 5.61% in the same period last year [1][3][6] - The net profit for 14 banks also showed positive growth, averaging 5.49%, down from 7.05% year-on-year [1][6][7] - The asset scale of A-share listed city commercial banks increased by 6.53% compared to the end of the previous year, up from 4.65% year-on-year [2][9] Revenue Performance - Qingdao Bank led the revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 9.69%, followed by Xi'an Bank (8.14%), Nanjing Bank (6.53%), and Jiangsu Bank (6.21%) [3][5] - Three banks reported negative revenue growth: Beijing Bank (-3.18%), Guiyang Bank (-16.91%), and Xiamen Bank (-18.42%) [4][5] - Jiangsu Bank achieved the highest revenue among the listed banks, totaling 22.304 billion yuan, while Xiamen Bank had the lowest at 1.214 billion yuan [4][5] Net Profit Performance - Hangzhou Bank led in net profit growth with a 17.3% increase, followed by Qilu Bank (16.47%) and Qingdao Bank (16.42%) [7][8] - Negative net profit growth was reported by Beijing Bank (-2.44%), Guiyang Bank (-6.82%), and Xiamen Bank (-14.21%) [7][8] - Jiangsu Bank reported the highest net profit at 9.78 billion yuan, while Xiamen Bank had the lowest at 0.645 billion yuan [7][8] Asset Scale and Quality - As of March 31, 2025, eight A-share listed city commercial banks had asset scales exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with Beijing Bank and Jiangsu Bank surpassing 4 trillion yuan [9][10] - The overall asset quality showed improvement, with seven banks reporting non-performing loan ratios below 1%, the lowest being Chengdu Bank at 0.66% [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of various banking sectors in China, highlighting that the six major banks and rural commercial banks are generally overvalued, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are seen as undervalued [2][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) is introduced as a valuation parameter, calculated as Market Price to Earnings Ratio (PE) divided by Return on Equity (ROE), with a specific formula: PR = PE / (ROE / 100) [2][3]. - The average valuation of the six major banks' A-shares has reached above 1.0 PR, indicating overvaluation, while their H-shares average above 0.8 PR [4][5]. - The Postal Savings Bank is noted as the least favored among the six major banks, with a valuation below 1.0 PR in the A-share market [4]. Group 2: Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks are not generally overvalued, with an average A-share valuation of over 0.9 PR and H-share valuation at 0.8 PR [5][6]. - The disparity in valuation between A-shares and H-shares is highlighted, with examples such as China Merchants Bank showing stronger performance in H-shares compared to A-shares [5]. Group 3: City Commercial Banks - City commercial banks are identified as undervalued, with average A-share valuations around 0.8 PR, and specific banks like Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank noted as significant value opportunities with valuations of 0.65 PR [7][8]. Group 4: Rural Commercial Banks - The article suggests that rural commercial banks are not as clear-cut in terms of valuation, as they are generally seen as growth banks with lower dividend payout ratios, leading to higher correction coefficients [9][10]. - Only one rural commercial bank, Changshu Bank, is noted to have a valuation below 0.4 PR, indicating limited undervaluation compared to city commercial banks [9][10]. Group 5: Growth Banks - Four banks are identified as growth stocks with improving ROE: Hangzhou Bank, Qilu Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Changshu Bank [11][12]. - The article emphasizes that the valuation of these growth banks may not reflect their potential due to their lower dividend payout ratios [11][12]. Group 6: Market Environment - The article discusses the impact of a low-interest environment on stock valuations, suggesting that while valuations should theoretically rise, the relationship is not strictly inverse [12]. - It is recommended that banks with high valuations should be sold as they rise, particularly in the A-share market above 1.0 PR and H-share market above 0.8 PR [12].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the companies analyzed, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [10][19][33]. Group 2: Core Insights - The active bond fund market shows a slight increase in the number of funds and total assets, with 3,263 funds and a total scale of 7.90 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% and 1.0% increase respectively [7][8]. - The performance of active bond funds in Q1 was influenced by rising government bond yields, with short-term pure bond funds performing particularly well [7][8]. - The report highlights a shift in asset allocation within mixed secondary bond funds, with increased holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and steel [8][9]. - The medical device company Mindray achieved a revenue of 36.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.14%, while its international business grew by 21.28% [10][11]. - Haibo Technology reported a revenue of 8.27 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18.44% increase, with a significant focus on energy storage systems [15][18]. - The refrigerant manufacturer Sanmei achieved a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 26.42% increase, driven by strong demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors [26][27]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Active Bond Funds - As of Q1 2025, the number of active bond funds reached 3,263, with a total scale of 7.90 trillion yuan, and 43 new funds were issued, totaling 783.7 billion yuan [7][8]. - The performance of short-term pure bond funds was notably strong due to rising yields, while mixed bond funds showed volatility [7][8]. Mindray Medical - Mindray's revenue for 2024 was 36.73 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.67 billion yuan, and a proposed cash dividend of 5.6 yuan per 10 shares [10][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in domestic business in 2025, with international revenue expected to continue growing [11][12]. Haibo Technology - Haibo's revenue for 2024 was 8.27 billion yuan, with a focus on energy storage systems, which accounted for a significant portion of its revenue [15][18]. - The company has established partnerships with international firms to explore new market opportunities [18]. Sanmei - Sanmei's revenue for 2024 was 4.04 billion yuan, with a significant increase in refrigerant prices due to supply constraints [26][27]. - The company is well-positioned in the market with a leading share in the production of third-generation refrigerants [29]. Huayu Automotive - Huayu reported a revenue of 168.85 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decline in net profit due to cost pressures [31][32]. - The company is adjusting its customer structure to mitigate risks associated with its largest client, SAIC [32][33].

Core Insights - Financial investment business is evolving from traditional tools to a new revenue engine for listed banks amid narrowing net interest margins and sluggish profit growth [2][3] - Bond investments are showing strong yield elasticity during the market interest rate decline in 2024, effectively cushioning the impact of declining net interest income on financial statements [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, 42 listed A-share banks reported a total net profit of 2.14 trillion yuan, averaging daily earnings of approximately 58.58 billion yuan [3] - The total financial investment amount reached 91.41 trillion yuan, generating 512.8 billion yuan in investment income, with over 90% of banks achieving year-on-year positive growth in investment income [3][4] - Among these banks, 37 reported positive growth in investment income, with five small and medium-sized banks achieving over 100% year-on-year growth [3][4] Group 2: Investment Trends - The average proportion of investment income to total revenue for the 42 listed banks increased to 15.61% in 2024, up from 12.33% in 2023 [4] - Nine banks had investment income accounting for over 20% of their revenue, all of which were small and medium-sized banks [4] - Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Beijing Bank reported investment income exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The preference for bond investments among small and medium-sized banks is attributed to narrowing net interest margins and increased competition [6][7] - The bond market has become a significant source of income for banks, especially for rural commercial banks, which have become active participants in the bond market [6][7] - The overall bond yield trend in 2024 was downward, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing to 1.68% by December 31, creating favorable conditions for bond investment income growth [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Many banks maintain an optimistic outlook on bond investments for 2025, anticipating continued opportunities in the bond market due to expected fluctuations in bond rates [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Bank [2][3] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's performance remains robust with a revenue growth of 6.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and a net profit growth of 8.2% year-on-year [3][11] - The bank's net interest income increased significantly by 21.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by a resilient net interest margin [12][14] - Asset quality indicators such as non-performing loan ratio and overdue rates have shown improvement, indicating a positive trend in credit quality [19] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Jiangsu Bank's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 6.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while net profit rose by 8.2% [11][7] - The bank's net interest margin improved to 1.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13 basis points [12][9] - The bank's total loans grew by 13% year-on-year, with corporate loans increasing by 25.9% and retail loans by 10% [14][15] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income decreased by 23.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in other non-interest income [18] - However, fee income increased by 21.8% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in non-interest income [18] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 0.86%, down 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 5 basis points year-on-year [19] - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains high at 343.51%, despite a slight decrease [19] - The overdue rate decreased to 1.10%, indicating better asset quality management [19]