Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in the gold industry, with the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index increasing by 5.80% and individual stocks like Laopu Gold and Hunan Gold seeing gains of 12.44% and 10.01% respectively [1] - The gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange surpassed $5000 per ounce, marking a historic milestone [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks will purchase 60 tons of gold monthly this year, and with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the scale of gold purchases by ETFs is expected to increase, leading to a revised year-end gold price forecast of $5400 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 63.58% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2] - The individual performance of key stocks includes Zijin Mining at 4.77% increase and Shandong Gold at 5.76% increase, with their respective weights in the index being 11.20% and 9.05% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals prices, particularly silver and gold, is driven by geopolitical factors and increasing industrial demand, leading to significant market movements and investment opportunities in related stocks [6][14]. Precious Metals Price Movement - On January 26, silver opened with a significant increase, surpassing $108, with a daily rise of over 4% [9][10]. - Gold prices also saw a notable rise, initially breaking the $5000 mark and continuing to increase, reaching over $5070 [3][11]. Stock Market Reaction - The rise in precious metal prices led to a collective increase in A-share gold stocks, with Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Xiaocheng Technology, Sichuan Gold, and Hengbang Shares also experiencing gains [4][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, with growing demand in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy contributing to a five-year supply shortage [5][12]. - Factors such as tightening export controls and historically low inventory levels have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in silver's price elasticity being significantly higher than that of gold [5][12]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from Haitong Futures and Jinrui Futures attribute the recent price increases in gold and silver to geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. fiscal policies, which have affected investor confidence in U.S. assets [6][14].

记者丨黎雨桐 翁榕涛 编辑丨金珊 1月26日上午，现货白银开盘大涨，截至9：48，突破108美元关口，日内涨超4%。 | W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 108.014 ª² | | | 103.341 | 总量 | | 0 | | +4.673 | +4.52% 开盘 | | 104.402 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 108.583 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 103.191 | 壇 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | | | 关时 | 五日 | 日K | 周Ｋ | 月K | 更多 | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 108.583 | | | | 5.07%. 卖一 108.069 | | | | | | | | 示一 | 108.014 | | | | | | | 9:48 | 107.928 | 0 | | | | | | 9:48 | 107.948 | 0 ...

港股有色金属股集体上涨，黄金白银股涨幅领先，其中，中国白银集团大涨超10%领先，赤峰黄金涨超 7%，珠峰黄金涨6.6%，紫金矿业涨5.3%，山东黄金涨4.8%，中国黄金国际、紫金黄金国际、灵宝黄金 均涨超4%，招金矿业涨3.3%。此外，赤峰黄金、紫金矿业、中国黄金国际、山东黄金、紫金黄金国 际、灵宝黄金均刷新历史新高价。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

每经AI快讯，黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693.HK)涨7.19%，报42.66港元；中国白银 集团(00815.HK)涨7.35%，报0.73港元；灵宝黄金(03330.HK)涨6.09%，报25.78港元；紫金矿业 (02899.HK)涨5.74%，报42.74港元；山东黄金(01787.HK)涨5.2%，报48.54港元。 ...

摩根大通认为，随着投资者在轮动中继续偏向增长股，在企业盈利和仓位因素的支撑下，A股和港股的 升势有望延续至农历新年，预计港股在上升行情中会跑赢A股。盈利预期上调正陆续出现，尤其集中在 材料和通信服务板块，而从估值、增长和流动性来看，市场并未出现过热。 中信建投认为，白酒产业"五底阶段"与资本市场"三低一高"共振，结合近期市场策略相继落地，站在春 节旺季来临之际，认为本轮白酒调整期拐点将至，资本市场预期先行，白酒板块迎来周期底部配置机 会。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 1月26日，恒生指数高开0.35%，恒生科技指数涨0.05%。盘面上，资源股强势，紫金矿业涨近3%，赤峰 黄金涨超4%；新消费走强，老铺黄金涨超5%，泡泡玛特涨超4%。 关于港股后市 兴业证券认为，港股有望继续震荡向上。该行指出，岁末的资金阶段性收紧效应过去，内资继续流入； 如果海外形势带来扰动反而是机会。一旦特朗普"TACO"，反而可能通过弱美元与资金再配置，对港股 形成边际支撑。此外，政策和产业层面也存在催化。 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records in 2026 [12] - Zinc is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the potential for precious metals to lead industrial metals in price increases, driven by a breakdown in the gold-silver ratio and a late-stage long-term debt cycle [7][12] - Specific investment opportunities include companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and others in the precious metals sector [7] Zinc Sector - The report identifies zinc as a critical material in the context of re-industrialization, with supply constraints and increasing demand expected to drive prices higher [13] Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply chain security [13] Steel Sector - The steel industry is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low period before the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production and consumption metrics indicate a slight increase in iron output but a decrease in rebar demand, reflecting a mixed outlook for the sector [19][26] New Energy Metals - The report notes significant increases in lithium and cobalt prices, with production metrics showing substantial year-on-year growth in lithium carbonate output [37][46] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures indicating continued growth in the sector [41] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the overall upward trend in industrial metal prices, driven by political policy risks and supply reduction expectations [56] - Specific metrics indicate rising copper production and declining refining fees, suggesting a tightening supply environment [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records [12] - Zinc is identified as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of precious metals in preserving wealth amid a declining trust in fiat currencies, recommending active investment in this sector [12] Zinc Sector - The report suggests that zinc, as a fundamental material for de-globalization, will see increased demand driven by infrastructure needs in emerging markets, despite current market skepticism [13] Aluminum Sector - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China is expected to benefit from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with a positive outlook for profitability and valuation [13] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [19] New Energy Metals - Lithium and carbonate prices have shown significant increases, with production levels rising sharply, indicating strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector [37][41] - The report notes a substantial increase in the production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide, reflecting the growing demand for electric vehicles [37] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that political risks and supply constraints are contributing to an overall increase in industrial metal prices, with copper production expected to rise despite declining refining fees [56][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].