Group 1 - The China Securities and Insurance Index (399966) has shown strong growth, with significant increases in stocks such as Huatai Securities (601688) up by 10.01%, Guosheng Jin控 (002670) up by 9.99%, and GF Securities (000776) up by 9.78% [1] - As of September 26, insurance capital institutions have made 34 equity stakes in listed companies this year, surpassing last year's total of 20 [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that the improvement in the insurance industry's interest spread and the concentration of competition towards leading firms will maintain a positive long-term outlook, suggesting a trend of upward valuation for insurance stocks [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities and Insurance Index (399966) account for 63.14% of the index, including major companies like Ping An Insurance (601318) and CITIC Securities (600030) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a strong upward trend in the securities sector, with the Guozheng Securities Leading Index rising by 5.71% and key stocks like Huatai Securities and GF Securities showing significant gains of 10.01% and 9.59% respectively [1] - The brokerage sector is expected to experience sustained upward momentum due to high certainty in fundamentals as the fourth quarter approaches, alongside a recovery in valuations after a decline of approximately 8% in September [1][2] - Institutional funds are currently under-allocated in the brokerage sector, with positive quarterly report expectations and a shift in demand for absolute return allocations, suggesting a favorable environment for continued growth in the sector [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that the trading volume in A-shares remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 206% and a month-on-month increase of 6%, reaching 2.44 trillion RMB [2] - The brokerage sector's profit expectations are optimistic, with projected net profit growth of 48% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter for Q3 2025, leading to an annual growth forecast of 41% [2] - As of September 26, the A-share and Hong Kong brokerage sectors are trading at 1.53x and 0.98x P/B respectively, indicating they are at the 41% and 66% percentiles of their historical valuations over the past decade [2] Group 3 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index account for 79.16% of the index, with significant players including Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [3]

Group 1 - The second "Golden Unicorn Best Investment Advisor" selection has officially started, aiming to identify outstanding investment advisors in wealth management [1] - The competition includes various categories such as stock simulation trading, ETF simulation trading, public fund simulation allocation, and social service evaluation [1] - The weekly ranking data from September 22 to September 28 shows that Jin Xin from China Aviation Securities Fujian Branch achieved the highest weekly return of 19.5% in the stock simulation category [1][2] Group 2 - In the stock simulation trading group, the top three advisors are Jin Xin (19.5%), Zhang Hong (13.52%), and Wang Tan (13.41%) [2] - The ETF simulation trading group saw Zhang Yefeng from Guotai Haitong Securities achieve a weekly return of 9.16%, followed by Li Ting (6.66%) and Fan Chunqing (6.58%) [3] - In the public fund simulation allocation group, the top advisor is Ma Kengcheng from Changcheng Securities with a weekly return of 8.39%, followed by Jiang Wenjie (8.23%) and Zhang Yefeng (6.81%) [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3832.05 points, above the six-month moving average, with a slight increase of 0.10% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 940.447 billion yuan [1] Stocks Performance - A total of 117 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] - The stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - Kaiwang Technology (9.08%) - Liwang Co., Ltd. (6.87%) - Shenghui Technology (6.51%) [1] - Other stocks that have just crossed the six-month moving average with smaller deviation rates include: - China Merchants Securities - Renxin New Materials - Jihigh Development [1] Detailed Stock Data - The top three stocks with the highest daily increase and their respective metrics are: - Kaiwang Technology: 9.71% increase, 7.19% turnover rate, latest price 38.42 yuan [1] - Liwang Co., Ltd.: 13.11% increase, 12.32% turnover rate, latest price 30.03 yuan [1] - Shenghui Technology: 9.64% increase, 9.67% turnover rate, latest price 7.51 yuan [1] - Additional stocks with notable performance include: - Yuejian Intelligent: 5.39% increase, 1.95% turnover rate, latest price 16.03 yuan [1] - Haixing Electric: 4.15% increase, 1.24% turnover rate, latest price 28.13 yuan [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with minor deviations include: - Lingge Technology: 2.11% deviation [2] - Lixin Energy: 1.98% deviation [2] - Fengshan Group: 1.95% deviation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks showed a rebound in early trading, with significant gains observed across major firms, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential growth in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huatai Securities (601688) rose by 5.71%, reaching HKD 19.63 [1] - China Merchants Securities (600999) increased by 5.56%, reaching HKD 16.53 [1] - GF Securities (000776) saw a rise of 4.97%, reaching HKD 18.81 [1] - CITIC Securities (600030) gained 5.08%, reaching HKD 28.52 [1] Group 2: Market Forecast - Huaxi Securities reported that by Q3 2025, 45 listed brokerages are expected to achieve adjusted revenue of CNY 158.1 billion in a single quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, these brokerages are projected to realize adjusted operating income of CNY 398.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44% [1] Group 3: Business Outlook - Kaiyuan Securities noted a significant increase in trading activity and margin financing scale in Q3, suggesting that the year-on-year growth rate of brokerage earnings in the quarterly report is likely to expand further [1] - Looking ahead, improvements are expected in investment banking, derivatives, and public fund businesses, with leading brokerages' overseas operations and organic growth driving return on equity (ROE) expansion [1] - The brokerage sector remains undervalued, with institutional underallocation, presenting strategic allocation opportunities, particularly with upcoming quarterly reports and policy events as catalysts [1]

Core Insights - The overall sentiment in the securities industry remains optimistic, with expectations for continued profit growth in the third quarter driven by sustained demand for wealth management services [3][4]. Market Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index experienced fluctuations, with Huayin Securities leading gains at 0.56% [1]. - The broker ETF (512000) saw a significant increase in scale, growing by 336 million yuan over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [2]. - The broker ETF's latest share count reached 60.7 billion, marking a one-year high and leading among comparable funds [2]. Trading Activity - The broker ETF recorded a turnover of 0.04% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 14.93 million yuan [2]. - Over the past 22 days, the broker ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.262 billion yuan, totaling 7.274 billion yuan in net inflows [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The securities industry is expected to maintain a double-digit profit growth rate year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reflecting a robust fundamental outlook [3]. - Despite a strong equity market performance year-to-date, the broker sector's index has lagged behind the broader market, indicating potential value in large broker valuations [4]. Investor Sentiment - As holidays approach, the topic of "holding cash or stocks" becomes crucial for investors, with many brokerages recommending "holding stocks through the holiday" based on optimistic market outlooks [2].

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a positive trend despite short-term fluctuations, with October A-shares likely entering a critical window period for risk appetite recovery [1][2][4] - Historical data suggests that the market typically performs well after the National Day holiday, with current valuations remaining reasonable and not overly stretched [1][3] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with opportunities for "high-low cut" strategies within this sector [6][7] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market is anticipated to remain favorable, supported by factors such as the upward trend in margin financing and potential seasonal inflows from foreign capital [1][4][5] - The focus on cyclical industries is expected to yield better performance in the fourth quarter, with over 65% probability of these sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - Areas with improving earnings or sustained high growth are projected to generate excess returns, particularly in mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the AI industry chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in bond issuance by securities firms in China reflects a strong demand for capital, driven by increased market activity, expansion of capital-intensive businesses, and favorable financing conditions in a low-interest-rate environment [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Scale - As of September 28, 2023, the total bond issuance by securities firms has exceeded 1.18 trillion yuan, marking an 83.27% year-on-year increase, with 616 bonds issued compared to 366 in the same period last year [2]. - Monthly issuance saw a significant increase, with July reaching 142.99 billion yuan and August further rising to 275.5 billion yuan, setting new records for both volume and scale [2]. - Leading firms dominate the issuance, with seven firms surpassing 50 billion yuan in bond issuance, including China Galaxy, which issued over 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Use of Funds - The bond issuance is characterized by a diverse allocation of funds, including debt repayment, liquidity support, and targeted investments, particularly in margin trading and derivatives [3]. - A significant portion of the funds is used for refinancing high-interest debt, optimizing debt structures, and enhancing operational capital for business expansion [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Demand - The increase in bond issuance is attributed to multiple factors, including a strong A-share market, lower financing costs, and a supportive regulatory environment [4]. - The A-share market's performance, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing key thresholds, has led to a surge in trading activity, boosting demand for capital [4]. Group 4: Issuance Costs - The average interest rates for bond issuance have decreased compared to the previous year, with company bonds averaging 1.89%, subordinate bonds at 2.25%, and short-term financing bonds at 1.77% [5]. - Debt financing is favored over equity financing due to its larger funding capacity, lower costs in the current environment, and flexibility in meeting different business funding cycles without diluting equity [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for capital among securities firms is expected to remain strong, with projections indicating continued high bond issuance in the fourth quarter [6]. - Leading firms are likely to strengthen their competitive positions due to capital and cost advantages, potentially intensifying the "Matthew Effect" in the industry [6].

Domestic Economic Trends - Q3 price stabilization trend has strengthened, with traditional industry prices rebounding in September, and a more pronounced recovery in the new energy sector due to improved downstream demand[1] - Domestic growth stabilization policies are expected to intensify, with concentrated fiscal efforts in Q4, although achieving the annual growth target remains under pressure due to significant economic data declines in July and August[1] International Economic Developments - On September 25, Trump announced tariffs on heavy trucks, kitchen and bathroom materials, furniture, and pharmaceuticals, with some tariffs supported by Section 232 investigations[1] - The US Q2 GDP was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, and August durable goods orders increased by 2.9%, significantly exceeding expectations[1] Asset Market Insights - The domestic policy tone has temporarily shifted back to growth stabilization, potentially leading to a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, with expectations of a short-term buying window for interest rate bonds[1] - The US economic fundamentals show no recession risk, and the recent FOMC has significantly lowered the 2026 rate cut expectations, suggesting that changes in future rate cut expectations are unlikely to negatively impact the market[1] Monetary Liquidity and Market Conditions - The overall funding environment remains tight as the quarter-end and National Day holiday approach, with the benchmark interest rate rising by approximately 1.92 basis points[2] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 1,047.21 billion yuan, reaching 72,679.9995 billion yuan[5] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds was negative at -3,225.7 billion yuan, with a planned issuance of 107.15 billion yuan for the upcoming week, a significant decrease from 443.58 billion yuan this week[6] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.6589%, reflecting a slight increase of 1.79 basis points compared to the previous week[7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 28 日 维持震荡看多，风格转向大盘 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250928 1. 当前市场观察 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 金融工程 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 本周市场继续震荡，大盘成长风格维持强势，价值风格继续走弱。具体来 看，万得全 A 指数上涨约 0.25%，上证 50、沪深 300 分别上涨约 1.09%、 1.09%，中证 1000 则下跌约 0.52%。国证价值下跌约 0.25%，而国证成长上 涨约 2.37%，创业板指、科创 50 分别上涨约 1.97%、6.47%。 ❑ 择时方面，继续看多 A 股，但短期看好程度有所下降。继续看好的核心原因 为当前市场交易情绪仍相对较强、人民币升值背景下内外部流动性宽裕、基 本面上信贷脉冲不弱且消费 ...