为持续向投资者普及ETF基础知识，招商证券携手十大基金公司，联合全景网共同举办2025年招商证 券"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播，旨在帮助投资者提升资产配置与风险管理能力，促进ETF市场的健 康发展。 2025年7月24日，"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播邀请到了银华基金指数投资分析师辛迪，一起探讨 《创新药板块崛起，后市还有哪些机会？》。 辛迪表示，经过近几年的快速发展，我国已成为全球创新药领域的重要力量，尤其在研发管线规模、靶 点覆盖及国际化合作方面表现突出，而众多创新药企也将开始进入成果兑现阶段，中国创新药行业或正 在进入厚积薄发的"收获期"。 "总体而言，政策、资本、产业因素共振，中国创新药行业长期成长逻辑坚实。"辛迪进一步表示，"我 认为创新药估值仍有非常充足的上扬空间。" 部分企业业绩超预期，创新药或步入"收获期" 辛迪：从基本面来看，我们认为创新药仍是当前医药板块中产业趋势最为明确且具备未来成长空间的子 行业，全年维度创新药作为医药板块的投资主线不会变化，创新药大时代已然到来。此外，7月中报业 绩预告/快报陆续披露，GLP-1景气赛道、困境反转的原料药等表现亮眼，从半年报情况看，部分企业 H1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products to 1.99% marks the first downward revision since the implementation of the dynamic adjustment mechanism, which helps the industry mitigate long-term interest spread loss risks in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The China Insurance Industry Association announced a new predetermined interest rate of 1.99%, down from 2.34% and 2.13% in the previous two quarters, triggering the dynamic adjustment mechanism for the first time [2][3]. - Major insurers such as China Life, Ping An, and Taikang have announced that starting in September, the maximum predetermined interest rates for ordinary life insurance products will be reduced from 2.5% to 2.0%, and for participating insurance from 2.0% to 1.75% [1][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The gap between the maximum predetermined interest rates for participating insurance and ordinary insurance has narrowed to 25 basis points (BP), enhancing the competitive advantage of insurance products [3][5]. - The adjustment of the maximum predetermined interest rates for various insurance products reflects a clear shift towards floating yield products, indicating a strategic transformation by leading insurers [5]. Group 3: Market Impact and Product Transition - The adjustment is expected to stabilize market expectations and industry development, reducing the impact on insurers' daily operations, especially during the year-end sales peak [4]. - The transition to new products is anticipated to be swift, with a one-month timeframe for switching, which may lessen the short-term impact of product suspensions on premium growth compared to previous years [4].

证券之星消息，7月29日证券板块较上一交易日上涨0.22%，中银证券领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3609.71，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于11289.41，上涨0.64%。证券板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日证券板块主力资金净流出21.81亿元，游资资金净流出1695.48万元，散户资金净 流入21.98亿元。证券板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601162 | 天风证券 | 5.89 Z | 10.93% | -3.18 Z | -5.91% | -2.71 Z- | -5.02% | | 601688 | 华泰证券 | 1.91亿 | 7.47% | -6486.95万 | -2.54% | -1.26 Z | -4.93% | | 000712 锦龙股份 | | 1.02亿 | 7.69% | 3865.88万 | 2.92% | -1.40亿 | -1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Jida Zhengyuan (003029.SZ) is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders ranging from 38 million to 45 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a worsening financial performance compared to the previous year's loss of 31.19 million yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The projected net loss attributable to shareholders for the current reporting period is between 38 million and 45 million yuan, compared to a loss of 31.19 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. - The net loss after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 39 million and 47 million yuan, compared to a loss of 33.95 million yuan in the previous year [1][2]. - Basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of 0.20 to 0.23 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.16 yuan per share last year [2]. Historical Financial Data - In 2022, 2023, and 2024, the net profits attributable to shareholders were -33.72 million yuan, -157 million yuan, and -139 million yuan, respectively [2]. - The net profits attributable to shareholders after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the same years were -36.34 million yuan, -166 million yuan, and -143 million yuan, respectively [2]. - The operating revenue for 2024 was approximately 406.67 million yuan, showing a decrease of 0.32% from 407.96 million yuan in 2023, and a significant drop from 491.18 million yuan in 2022 [3]. Capital Raising Activities - The company raised a total of 508.28 million yuan through its initial public offering, with a net amount of 458.18 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [4]. - The funds raised are intended for technology research projects, the construction of a new generation application security support platform, and the establishment of a marketing network and technical service system [4]. - In a subsequent issuance, the company raised approximately 179.71 million yuan, with a net amount of about 176.63 million yuan after costs, through the issuance of 11,439,127 shares at a price of 15.71 yuan per share [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that招商证券 has conducted a thorough review of the convertible bond repurchase matters related to山东赫达, confirming compliance with relevant regulations and the company's decision-making processes [1][6][7] - 山东赫达 issued 6 million convertible bonds with a total fundraising amount of 600 million RMB, netting 592.75 million RMB after deducting related expenses [1][2] - The bonds, named "赫达转债," began trading on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on July 19, 2023, under the code "127088" [2] Group 2 - The repurchase rights for bondholders are triggered if there are significant changes in the investment projects funded by the raised capital, as outlined in the募集说明书 [2][3] - The repurchase price for the bonds is set at 100.088 RMB per bond, which includes accrued interest and tax considerations [3][4] - The repurchase process includes a public announcement period and a specific declaration period from August 4 to August 8, 2025, during which bondholders can exercise their repurchase rights [5][6] Group 3 - The company will continue to trade the bonds during the repurchase period but will suspend conversion to shares [6] - 招商证券 has no objections to the repurchase matters, affirming that all necessary decision-making procedures have been followed [6][7]

Core Insights - The China Securities Association released special statistics on bond underwriting by securities firms for the first half of 2025, covering various types of bonds including green bonds, low-carbon transition bonds, and technology innovation bonds [1] Group 1: Technology Innovation Bonds - Technology innovation bonds (Sci-Tech bonds) emerged as the most prominent category, with 68 securities firms underwriting 380 bonds, a significant increase from 45 firms and 208 bonds in the same period last year, totaling 381.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.5% [2] - Leading securities firms in the Sci-Tech bond underwriting space include CITIC Securities (46.73), CITIC Jiantou (38.63), Guotai Junan (34.67), CICC (24.09), and Huatai United (21.69) based on the number of underwritings [2][3] - In terms of underwriting amount, the top five firms are CITIC Securities (71.10 billion yuan), CITIC Jiantou (63.17 billion yuan), Guotai Junan (48.43 billion yuan), CICC (29.91 billion yuan), and Huatai United (22.08 billion yuan), with Huatai United being a new entrant in the top five [2][3] Group 2: Low-Carbon Transition Bonds - In the low-carbon transition bond sector, 17 firms acted as lead underwriters for 14 bonds, totaling 8.35 billion yuan [5] - Notably, Caixin Securities and Ping An Securities excelled in the number of lead underwritings, ranking first and second with 1.50 and 1.25 underwritings respectively, while Guoxin Securities achieved an underwriting amount of 1 billion yuan, tying with Guotai Junan for the top position [5][6] Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - For small and micro enterprise support bonds, 32 firms served as lead underwriters for 30 bonds, with a total amount of 11.82 billion yuan [5] - Wukuang Securities led in both the number of underwritings (4) and underwriting amount (1.1 billion yuan) in this category [5][6] - Zhejiang Securities and Guotai Junan ranked second and third in the number of underwritings, while Changjiang Securities and Caida Securities ranked second and third in underwriting amount [5][6]

Market Performance - The market opened high on July 28, experienced a short-term drop, and then rebounded in the afternoon, with the Securities ETF leading (560090) rising by 0.76% [1] - The Securities ETF reached a high of 1.344 and a low of 1.310, with a trading volume of 48.75 million and a turnover rate of 2.51% [1] Sector Analysis - The financial sector has shown differentiation this year, with the brokerage sector lagging behind, underperforming the broader market by 2% year-to-date, but since May, the brokerage sector has outperformed the market index by nearly 10% [4] - Recent strong performance in the brokerage sector is attributed to improved market sentiment, thematic catalysts, and deepening capital market reforms [6] Company News - Guotai Junan Asset Management announced the absorption merger with Haitong Asset Management, marking the first merger case of a brokerage asset management subsidiary in the domestic securities industry [3] - Major stocks in the Securities ETF saw significant gains, with Zhongyin Securities rising nearly 7%, Guotai Haitong up over 3%, and Huatai Securities increasing over 2% [1] Investment Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a favorable valuation and a potential increase in return on equity (ROE) due to ongoing capital market reforms [6] - The current market conditions suggest a strong rebound in fundamentals and a solid safety margin in valuations, making the Securities ETF (560090) an attractive investment tool for exposure to the brokerage sector [6]

Group 1 - The second "Golden Unicorn Best Investment Advisor" selection is underway, focusing on identifying outstanding investment advisors in wealth management [1] - The weekly ranking data from July 14 to July 20 shows that Wang Weilong from Bank of China Securities achieved the highest weekly return of 20.22% in stock simulation trading [1][2] - In the ETF simulation trading group, Sun Baoyan from Xinda Securities topped the list with a weekly return of 10.81% [2][3] Group 2 - In the public fund simulation configuration group, Sun Baoyan also led with a weekly return of 10.91%, followed by He Weidong from Dongxing Securities with 5.88% [3][5] - The social service evaluation highlights top advisors based on their IP homepage and simulated portfolio heat values, with Mei Xingxia from Dongfang Securities leading in IP homepage heat value [11]

Group 1 - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, is promoting free preschool education as a significant welfare initiative affecting many families, emphasizing the need for local governments to develop detailed plans and ensure timely funding [2] - The China Capital Market Society was established, with the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing as the head, marking the creation of an official think tank for the capital market [4] - The CSRC is revising the Corporate Governance Guidelines to enhance the regulatory framework for listed companies, focusing on preventing significant adverse impacts from competition and improving related party transaction oversight [5] Group 2 - The China Pesticide Industry Association is launching a three-year campaign to address issues like illegal production and disorderly competition in the pesticide industry, aiming for improved market order and product quality by 2027 [8] - The market sentiment is high, with the CSRC's commitment to stabilizing the market, indicating a potential influx of new funds as the market shows signs of recovery [17] - The A-share market is expected to challenge 2024 highs, driven by the "anti-involution" policy and positive feedback from increased public and private fund positions [26] Group 3 - The recent market rally is characterized by a rotation strategy, with a focus on sectors that have lagged behind, such as steel and construction, which are now benefiting from themes like "anti-involution" and infrastructure projects [23] - The AI industry is anticipated to enter a "computing power-driven" phase, with domestic chip and infrastructure development expected to gain momentum [22] - The current market environment suggests a preference for "rotation and supplementary gains," with an emphasis on identifying sectors that have historically performed well under similar conditions [25]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Quantitative Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity indicators to generate short-term market timing signals[24][25][26] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Manufacturing PMI: Current value at 49.70, 44.92% percentile over the past 5 years, indicating neutral sentiment[24] - Long-term RMB loan growth: 0.00% percentile, indicating weak credit growth and cautious signals[24] - M1 growth rate: 94.92% percentile, indicating strong growth and optimistic signals[24] - **Valuation**: - PE median: 43.18, 97.19% percentile, indicating high valuation and neutral signals[25] - PB median: 2.85, 86.77% percentile, indicating high valuation and neutral signals[25] - **Sentiment**: - Beta dispersion: -0.59%, 40.68% percentile, indicating neutral sentiment[25] - Volume sentiment score: 0.98, 99.59% percentile, indicating strong sentiment and optimism[25] - Volatility: 7.53% (annualized), 0.17% percentile, indicating optimism[25] - **Liquidity**: - Monetary rate: -0.10, 33.90% percentile, indicating relative ease and optimism[26] - Exchange rate expectations: -0.09%, 40.68% percentile, indicating neutrality[26] - 5-day average financing: 50.66 billion RMB, 95.53% percentile, indicating neutral leverage signals[26] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance with significant excess returns and reduced drawdowns compared to benchmarks[26][30] 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates growth and value styles based on macroeconomic fundamentals, valuation, and sentiment indicators to recommend allocation[35] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Profit cycle slope: High, favoring growth[37] - Interest rate cycle: High, favoring value[37] - Credit cycle: Weak, favoring value[37] - **Valuation**: - PE difference: 19.57% percentile, favoring growth[37] - PB difference: 38.03% percentile, favoring growth[37] - **Sentiment**: - Turnover difference: 38.13% percentile, favoring value[37] - Volatility difference: 17.73% percentile, favoring balanced allocation[37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has historically delivered significant excess returns over benchmarks, though recent performance has been mixed[36][39] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model assesses small-cap and large-cap styles using macroeconomic fundamentals, valuation, and sentiment indicators to suggest balanced allocation[40] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Profit cycle slope: High, favoring small-cap[42] - Interest rate cycle: High, favoring large-cap[42] - Credit cycle: Weak, favoring large-cap[42] - **Valuation**: - PE difference: 78.86% percentile, favoring large-cap[42] - PB difference: 96.59% percentile, favoring large-cap[42] - **Sentiment**: - Turnover difference: 72.56% percentile, favoring small-cap[42] - Volatility difference: 62.60% percentile, favoring large-cap[42] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently outperformed benchmarks, delivering significant excess returns over time[41][44] 4. Model Name: Four-Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines insights from growth-value and small-cap-large-cap models to allocate across four styles: small-cap growth, small-cap value, large-cap growth, and large-cap value[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - Allocation recommendation: Small-cap growth (12.5%), small-cap value (37.5%), large-cap growth (12.5%), large-cap value (37.5%)[45] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has historically generated significant excess returns, though recent performance has been slightly below benchmarks[45][46] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Short-term Quantitative Timing Model - Annualized return: 16.98% - Annualized volatility: 14.55% - Maximum drawdown: 27.70% - Sharpe ratio: 1.0138 - Excess return (2024 onwards): 2.26%[26][30][33] 2. Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - Annualized return: 11.82% - Annualized volatility: 20.79% - Maximum drawdown: 43.07% - Sharpe ratio: 0.5457 - Excess return (2025 YTD): -2.32%[36][39] 3. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - Annualized return: 12.38% - Annualized volatility: 22.69% - Maximum drawdown: 50.65% - Sharpe ratio: 0.5408 - Excess return (2025 YTD): -5.11%[41][44] 4. Four-Style Rotation Model - Annualized return: 13.29% - Annualized volatility: 21.53% - Maximum drawdown: 47.91% - Sharpe ratio: 0.6001 - Excess return (2025 YTD): -3.25%[45][46]