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“反内卷”降温,煤炭行情结束了吗?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-03 13:13
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in coal prices, influenced by the cooling of "anti-involution" measures, does not signify the end of the coal equity market. The report suggests that the bottom for coal equities has been established, and valuations are expected to continue to recover, particularly for companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy, which have growth potential and improving balance sheets [2][7][9]. Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze River) fell by 4.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.79 percentage points. The decline in coal prices is attributed to a divergence between sentiment and reality, with thermal coal prices at 663 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton week-on-week, and coking coal prices stable at 1680 RMB/ton [6][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 31, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 607.8 million tons, an increase of 8.1% week-on-week. The total coal inventory was 122.48 million tons, down 1.2% week-on-week, with a usable days supply of 20.2 days, a decrease of 1.9 days [17][33]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is 663 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10 RMB/ton. Coking coal prices remain stable at 1680 RMB/ton, while the price of metallurgical coke has increased by 50 RMB/ton to 1430 RMB/ton [16][42]. Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Elastic stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H), Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma Energy, Huainan Mining, Jin Coal International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua Energy (A+H), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 3. Transitioning growth: Electric Power Investment Energy [9][8].
煤炭行业周报(8月第1周):神华拟收购集团资产,8月煤价有望上涨-20250803
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 11:22
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Shenhua plans to acquire group assets, and coal prices are expected to rise in August. Domestic power plants maintain daily coal consumption, leading to continued price increases. The coal association has advocated for controlling production and improving quality, while the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to environmental factors affecting capacity utilization, with supply and demand gradually balancing in the second half of the year [6][42]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector declined, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.81 percentage points, with a drop of 4.56% as of August 1, 2025. Among 37 stocks, Chengzhi Co. had the smallest decline at 0.89% [2]. - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 6.64 million tons from July 25 to July 31, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9% but a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The total coal inventory was 28.87 million tons, down 5.5% week-on-week and up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. Price Trends - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 665 CNY/ton, up 0.15% week-on-week. The price of imported thermal coal was 763 CNY/ton, up 0.13% week-on-week. Prices at various ports, including Qinhuangdao and Huanghua, also saw increases [3]. - For coking coal, the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was stable at 1,650 CNY/ton, while prices for metallurgical coke increased by 3.4% for first-grade and 3.94% for second-grade [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 146.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. Power and chemical industries saw coal consumption changes of -2.7% and +16.9% respectively [2][41]. - The chemical industry’s total coal consumption was reported at 21.39 million tons as of August 1, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and turnaround coking coal companies. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][42].
供需驱动煤价回升,关注板块回调配置机遇
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-03 08:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector during price corrections [11][12] - The supply side is tightening due to a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is increasing, particularly in inland provinces [11][12] - The coal price has established a new support level, and high-quality coal companies are characterized by strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of August 2, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 655 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][28] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [30] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 90.9%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week [11][45] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 44.4 thousand tons/day (+13.05%) [11][46] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 1.0 thousand tons/day (+0.45%) [11][46] Inventory Situation - As of July 31, coal inventory in inland provinces decreased by 1.20% week-on-week, while daily consumption increased [46] - Coastal provinces saw a 1.08% decrease in coal inventory week-on-week [46] Company Performance - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others [12][13]
8月焦煤长协价上涨,第五轮焦炭提涨开启
Huafu Securities· 2025-08-03 05:23
Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The coal prices have shown a continuous upward trend due to increased daily consumption and reduced inventory as the peak season approaches [5] - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 5.524 million tons, an increase of 1.096 million tons, while the coal arrival volume was 6.376 million tons, up by 1.31 million tons year-on-year [5] - The coal supply elasticity is limited due to strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, leading to a potential new normal of underproduction [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index dropped by 4.67%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.92 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the coal index has decreased by 10.35%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 3.05% [15] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 1, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 663 CNY/ton, up by 1.5% week-on-week [3][30] - The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.474 million tons, down by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.2 Annual Long-term Price - The long-term price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [28] 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for Inner Mongolia's 5500K coal rose by 25.5 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's price increased by 32 CNY/ton [30] 2.4 Supply and Demand 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 80.2%, down by 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [40] - The average daily output of thermal coal from 462 sample mines decreased by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.4.2 Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased slightly to 87.7 million tons, up by 0.63% week-on-week [46] - The inventory of these power plants decreased to 1,394.3 million tons, down by 0.26% week-on-week [46] 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The total inventory index for thermal coal was 192 points, down by 1.8% week-on-week [56] - The inventory at Qinhuangdao port dropped significantly to 535 million tons, down by 8.23% week-on-week [66] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remained stable at 1,680 CNY/ton [80] - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines was 77.7 million tons [80] 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for Shanxi's coking coal increased by 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while prices in Henan and Anhui remained unchanged [81]
煤炭周报:供需双重给力,动力煤价预计重回“8”字头-20250802
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-02 11:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and Zhongmei Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will rebound to the "8" range due to dual support from supply and demand, with a price center expected to maintain around 700 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity demand, with total power generation growth reaching 8.57% year-on-year, and thermal power growth at 5.48% [2][7]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to production checks and adverse weather conditions, leading to a structural shortage of coal [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are on an upward trend, driven by supply constraints and increased electricity demand [2][7]. - It mentions that the daily coal consumption of power plants has risen to over 6 million tons, with further upward potential [2][7]. 2. Market Performance - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 4.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report details the performance of various coal companies, with Jin Control Coal Industry experiencing the largest decline of 11.94% [17][20]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the tightening supply in the coal market, with significant drops in railway shipments and port inventories [2][9]. - It highlights the expected recovery in production capacity in mid-August, which may influence price dynamics [2][7]. 4. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, stable performance, and growth potential, such as Lu'an Huanneng, Jin Control Coal Industry, and others [3][11].
煤炭开采板块7月31日跌2.24%,淮北矿业领跌,主力资金净流出8.63亿元
Group 1 - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 2.24% on July 31, with Huabei Mining leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11009.77, down 1.73% [1] - Major coal mining stocks showed significant declines, with Huabei Mining down 4.95% and other notable declines including Lu'an Environmental Energy down 4.85% and Pingmei Shenma down 4.57% [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 863 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 624 million yuan [1] - The table of fund flows indicates that China Shennong had a net inflow of 72.29 million yuan from main funds, while other companies like Electric Power Energy and SuNeng had mixed results in fund flows [2] - The overall trend shows that while main funds are withdrawing, retail investors are actively buying into certain stocks within the coal mining sector [2]
A股钢铁、煤炭股等周期股走低
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-07-31 02:03
格隆汇7月31日|A股钢铁、煤炭等周期股早盘集体走低,安阳钢铁、酒钢宏兴、新钢股份、安泰集 团、包钢股份跌超5%,晋控煤业、山西焦煤、重庆钢铁、华菱钢铁、三钢闽光等跟跌。 ...
钢铁、煤炭股集体走低 安阳钢铁等多股跌超5%
news flash· 2025-07-31 01:53
智通财经7月31日电,钢铁、煤炭等周期股早盘集体走低,安阳钢铁、酒钢宏兴、新钢股份、安泰集 团、包钢股份跌超5%,晋控煤业、山西焦煤、重庆钢铁、华菱钢铁、三钢闽光等跟跌。 钢铁、煤炭股集体走低 安阳钢铁等多股跌超5% ...
煤炭基本面利多持续,拐点右侧布局进行时
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-28 09:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices for thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a favorable fundamental outlook [4][17] - The current price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 653 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.2% increase from the lowest price earlier this year [4][35] - The supply side remains constrained with a low operating rate of 81.3% among 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [4][25] - The demand for electricity coal is high due to the summer peak season, supporting price increases [4][25] - Coking coal prices have also surged, with the price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1680 CNY/ton, a 16.67% increase [4][26] Summary by Sections Investment Perspective - The coal market fundamentals are favorable, and it is time to position for growth as prices are expected to recover towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY [4][17] - The price of coking coal is more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices indicating a recovery from previous lows [4][17] Market Performance - The coal index rose by 7.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.29 percentage points [28] - Major coal companies have shown significant price increases, with Lu'an Energy up by 31.22% and Jinko Coal up by 18.83% [28] Key Indicators - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.23, and the PB ratio is 1.26, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [29][32] - The port price for thermal coal has seen a slight increase, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price rising by 1.71% [35][38] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of coal mines is at a low level, which may lead to further price increases as supply tightens [4][25] - The demand for non-electric coal remains strong, with methanol production rates at historical highs [4][25] Investment Recommendations - Four main investment lines are suggested: 1. Cycle logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华 and 中煤能源 for dividend potential 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][18]
中证沪港深互联互通中小综合能源指数报2129.79点,前十大权重包含中海油田服务等
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-28 08:02
从中证沪港深互联互通中小综合能源指数持仓样本的行业来看,煤炭占比37.69%、焦炭占比19.45%、 油气开采占比12.76%、燃油炼制占比12.13%、油田服务占比8.87%、油气流通及其他占比5.85%、天然 气加工占比3.25%。 资料显示,该指数系列样本每半年调整一次,样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五 的下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整,调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一 个定期调整日前,权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对该指数系列样本进行临时调整。当样本退市 时,将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理,参照计算与维护细则处 理。当中证沪港深500指数、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合指数和中证沪港深互联互通综合指数样本发 生变动时,将进行相应调整。 据了解,中证沪港深行业指数系列将中证沪港深 500、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合以及中证沪港深互 联互通综合指数样本按行业分类标准分别分为 11 个行业,再以各行业全部证券作为样本编制指数,以 反映中证沪港深指数系列中不同行业公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日,以1000.0 ...