信达证券（601059）股份有限公司左前明,刘波,高升近期对华菱钢铁（000932）进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司首 次覆盖报告：蓄劲待时：华菱钢铁的"弹"与"韧"》，首次覆盖华菱钢铁给予买入评级，目标价7.07元。 华菱钢铁 最新盈利预测明细如下： "高端化"——公司积极推动高端化战略。2016年以来华菱钢铁研发支出占营收比例均维持3%-4%，研发支出总额及占 比均处于行业内较高水平。通过研发创新，高端产能持续落地，2024年重点品种钢销量占比达到65%，较2023年再提 升2个百分点。展望未来，1)宽厚板领域：持续巩固造船板、海工钢等战略品种竞争优势；2)薄板板块：推动汽车板 实现从基板到高端镀锌产品的产业链延伸，同步推进硅钢产品迭代升级；3)线棒材与钢管业务：加速"优转特"战略落 地。 "强内功"——公司持续提质增效。2024年公司资产负债率为56%，较2016年峰值下降约30pct，有息负债率39.4%，较 峰值下降约20pct，公司财务费用持续下降，2024年降至0.88亿元，考虑到当前钢铁行业所处的底部位置，公司整体偿 债能力较优。 投资建议：我们认为华菱钢铁有望充分受益产量增长的规模效益及高端化 ...

一、主要会计数据和财务指标 | 报告期指标 | 2025年一季报 | 2024年一季报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2023年一季报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 0 | 0.0700 | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.89 | 5.53 | 6.51 | 5.12 | | 每股公积金(元) | 1.24 | 1.24 | 0 | 1.24 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 2.37 | 2.15 | 10.23 | 1.89 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 9.67 | 8.35 | 15.81 | 10.9 | | 净利润(亿元) | 2.05 | 1.85 | 10.81 | 2.16 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 0.86 | 0.99 | -13.13 | 1.39 | 前十大流通股东累计持有： 19492.12万股，累计占流通股比： 28.19%，较上期变化： -2678.94万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比例( ...

Core Insights - The number of brokerage apps with over 1 million monthly active users reached 25, showing a positive month-on-month growth with an average increase of 3.35% in March compared to February [1][2] - The highest month-on-month growth was observed in Xinda Securities' app "Xinda Tianxia" with an increase of 5.29%, while the lowest growth was in Huaxi Securities' app "Huacai Rensheng" with an increase of only 2.07% [1][2] Monthly Active User Growth of Brokerage Apps - The top brokerage apps by month-on-month growth in March are as follows: - 1st: "Zhangle Caifutong" by Huatai Securities with a growth of 2.79% [2] - 2nd: "Guotai Haitong Junhong" by Guotai Junan Securities with a growth of 2.66% [2] - 3rd: "Ping An Securities" with a growth of 2.80% [2] - 4th: "Zhaoshang Securities" with a growth of 4.37% [2] - 5th: "CITIC Securities Xin E-Tou" with a growth of 3.95% [2] - 6th: "Guotai Haitong Tongcai" by Haitong Securities with a growth of 2.38% [2] - 7th: "Qingting Diankin" by CITIC JianTou Securities with a growth of 4.09% [2] - 8th: "GF Securities Yitaojin" with a growth of 3.84% [2] - 9th: "Xiaofang" by Fangzheng Securities with a growth of 3.53% [2] - 10th: "China Galaxy Securities" with a growth of 2.75% [2] - Other notable apps include "Xinda Tianxia" by Xinda Securities with a growth of 5.29% and "Yuli Bao" by Industrial Bank with a growth of 5.89% [2]

Group 1: US Market Analysis (2009-2011) - The US real estate market bottomed out without significantly affecting economic recovery, which drove a strong stock market [3][9][11] - The stock market's upward momentum was primarily driven by the recovery of personal consumption, manufacturing, and exports [3][17][25] Group 2: Japan Market Analysis (2012-2013) - Japan experienced a slight rebound in real estate, leading to a long bull market driven by government investment and quantitative easing [3][32][33] - The stock market's rise was supported by increased public investment and the Bank of Japan's purchase of risk assets [3][41][51] Group 3: Germany Market Analysis (2022-2023) - Despite a decline in real estate prices and economic recession, the German stock market continued to rise [3][58][62] - The stock market's growth was fueled by corporate globalization and favorable liquidity conditions [3][70][74] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market may experience a bull market driven by the bottoming out of real estate, along with rebounds in consumption, investment, and liquidity [3][4]

Group 1 - The trend of securities industry employees transitioning to civil service reflects increased competition and a demand for job stability, with a reported decrease of 7.33% in the number of securities professionals over the past two years [1] - The movement of talent from the securities sector may impact the operational efficiency and service quality of brokerage firms, potentially benefiting sectors like fintech and human resources services [1] Group 2 - The submission of equity change applications by Xinda Securities, Xinda Futures, and Xinda Australia Fund marks a significant step following their transfer to Central Huijin Investment, enhancing Huijin's control in the financial market [2] - The change in actual controller from the Ministry of Finance to Huijin may lead to more flexible capital operations and market strategies for Xinda companies, potentially prompting other asset management companies to adjust their equity structures [2] Group 3 - The acceleration of the long-term investment pilot program for insurance funds is evident, with companies like Taikang Asset Management receiving regulatory approval to establish private fund management subsidiaries [3] - The establishment of private fund companies by insurance institutions is expected to enhance the efficiency of insurance capital utilization and inject stability into the capital market [3] Group 4 - Leading private equity firms are maintaining high positions in their portfolios despite recent market volatility, indicating confidence in the Chinese market [4] - The relatively small drawdown in net asset values among top private equity firms suggests optimism regarding the long-term value of quality Chinese assets, with current market fluctuations providing favorable buying opportunities [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was strong last week, with short - end credit spreads compressing and secondary perpetual bond spreads slightly rising. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of long - end interest rates may remain unchanged. Although the implementation time of policy easing needs to wait, it is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. At present, the duration strategy is still relatively dominant, and the portfolio can maintain a medium - to - high duration. 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds also have allocation value [2][3][29] Summary by Directory I. The impact of the escalation of reciprocal tariffs on the fundamentals has not yet emerged, and further policy support is needed - Last week, the reciprocal tariffs between China and the United States continued to escalate, with the tariff rate increase reaching 125% on both sides, and the total US tariff rate on Chinese goods exceeding 145%. However, the US also announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs above 10% for other countries and exemption for some electronic products, which may ease the pressure on China's re - export trade [7] - Due to the trade shock and unstable policy expectations, the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were all under pressure, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield remaining high at around 4.5% and the US dollar index falling below 100. The US has not achieved its goals of reducing the trade deficit, promoting manufacturing reshoring, and cutting the fiscal deficit, and may take other measures in the future, so the global market may still face volatility [8] - China's economy has enhanced its resilience and preparedness for potential tariff risks. The 3 - month export growth of 12.3% was mainly affected by the Spring Festival shift. After adjusting for the seasonal factor, the actual export growth has weakened marginally, but the impact of tariffs has not fully emerged. However, after the escalation of bilateral tariffs, China's exports may be affected, and it is estimated that it may impact GDP by 1.5% - 2%, so domestic policies need to be strengthened [12][15][17] II. The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is gradually returning to normal, but reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait - The market's expectation of looser capital has increased, but historical experiences show that significant drops in capital interest rates below policy rates are usually preceded by signals such as continuous reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts by the central bank or a continuous increase in bank net lending. Currently, the central bank's open - market operations and bank net lending do not show such signals [18] - The "Financial Times" put forward three conditions for "choosing the right time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", and although these factors have emerged, their impacts are not yet prominent. The central bank is still weighing between stabilizing the bond market and reducing costs. It may lower the priority of stabilizing the bond market and advance the policy normalization, with DR007 likely to return to the 1.65% - 1.7% range, but further reduction may require the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait, but relevant information is likely to emerge around the Politburo meeting in April [20][21] - The loosening of the capital market last week was partly due to the large - scale net repayment of government bonds. However, this week, the net payment of government bonds will reach 797.8 billion yuan, the highest since mid - December last year. Although the probability of a significant tightening of funds is limited, the short - term capital market may not loosen significantly [22] - The March financial data was released on Sunday. The new social financing scale reached 5.89 trillion yuan, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.4%. The increase was mainly due to the rise in credit and government bond net financing. The new credit of residents and enterprises was affected by factors such as the expected increase in consumer loan interest rates and the convenience of platform working capital loans after the replacement of hidden debts. The subsequent use of replacement bonds may have a negative impact on credit, and more attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies under external shocks [25][27][28] III. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of interest rates remains unchanged - Although the implementation of tariffs and the degree of domestic policy hedging are uncertain, and the short - term bond market may fluctuate, the impact of tariff measures on the fundamentals has not been fully priced in the market, which is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. As export pressure gradually emerges, domestic policies are likely to be adjusted, and monetary easing is likely to be relatively early. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, long - term interest rates may not face significant risks and may hit new lows. At present, the duration strategy is dominant, and 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds have allocation value [29]

中国经济网北京4月8日讯 江苏证监局网站近日披露的江苏证监局关于对信达证券（601059）股份有限公司无锡金融一 街证券营业部采取出具警示函行政监管措施的决定。 经查，信达证券股份有限公司无锡金融一街证券营业部存在个别员工向客户提供风险测评答案、要求客户在开户资料 中填写虚假信息、在未全面准确了解投资者适当性的情况下向其推介私募产品等行为，反映出营业部内部控制不完 善、合规管理不到位，违反了《证券公司和证券投资基金管理公司合规管理办法》(证监会令第166号)第三条、第六条 第四项规定。 根据《证券公司和证券投资基金管理公司合规管理办法》(证监会令第166号)第三十二条第一款规定，江苏证监局决定 对信达证券股份有限公司无锡金融一街证券营业部采取出具警示函的行政监管措施，并记入证券期货市场诚信档案。 江苏证监局网站同日披露的的关于对吴强盛采取出具警示函行政监管措施的决定显示，经查，吴强盛在信达证券股份 有限公司无锡金融一街证券营业部从业期间，存在向客户提供风险测评答案、要求客户在开户资料中填写虚假信息、 在未全面准确了解投资者适当性的情况下向其推介有关私募产品等行为，违反了《证券公司和证券投资基金管理公司 合规管 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The shock pattern of China's domestic bond market was broken by the escalation of trade frictions last week. After the introduction of the US's so - called "reciprocal tariffs", the global risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the yields of domestic bonds have declined significantly. The direction of interest rate decline has been re - established, and the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q2 has increased significantly [2][3][6]. - Although the final implementation of short - term tariffs remains to be observed and the market may fluctuate, in the next quarter, long - term interest rates may hit new lows. At present, it is recommended to pay more attention to the duration strategy and appropriately lengthen the duration of the portfolio [3][36]. Summary by Directory 1. US Reciprocal Tariff Rates Significantly Exceed Expectations, and the Overseas Market Enters a Risk - Aversion Mode - After Trump took office in January, the US imposed tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico on the grounds of "fentanyl" and immigration issues, and also imposed tariffs on specific products such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles. On February 13, Trump signed a memorandum to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The market originally thought this would reduce the possibility of a significant increase in overall US tariffs [2][6][7]. - On April 2, the announced reciprocal tariffs first imposed a 10% tariff on all US imports. For economies with large trade deficits, additional differential tariffs were imposed. This greatly exceeded market expectations, bringing high uncertainty to the global economy, potentially pushing up US inflation in the short term and reducing economic growth, and thus increasing global risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - After the reciprocal tariffs were introduced, most economies said they would negotiate with the US. China announced a series of counter - measures on April 4, showing more preparedness for potential tariff risks and enhanced economic resilience. There is still room for negotiation between China and the US, and the final tariff rate is likely to be lower than the current level, but the impact on the fundamentals may exceed previous expectations [2]. 2. The Implementation of Tariffs is Expected to Accelerate the Relaxation of Aggregate Policies. Pay Attention to the Decline of the Central Level of Funding Rates - After the end of the cross - quarter period last week, the funding became looser, and on Thursday, the central bank's open - market operations turned to net injection, pushing DR007 below 1.7%, the lowest level since mid - January. The central bank may re - evaluate the economic and financial situation due to the escalation of global trade frictions, and the decline of the central level of funding rates may accelerate [18]. - Although the funding rate dropped below 1.7% on Thursday, the bank's rigid net financing scale declined, indicating that the central bank may not be ready to lower the central level of funding rates to 1.5% or lower. However, if there is greater pressure on the equity market or external demand, the time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be advanced, and the central level of funding rates may decline further [21]. - The scale of 91 - day discounted Treasury bonds issued last week was lower than expected, leading to a downward revision of the forecast for the April Treasury bond issuance scale. It is expected that the central financial institution capital injection special Treasury bonds will be publicly issued, and the overall government bond issuance scale in April is expected to be about 2.23 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 86 billion yuan, a decrease of about 61 billion yuan compared with March [3][24][30]. 3. The Direction of Interest Rate Decline is Re - established, and the Rhythm and Magnitude Depend on the Central Bank's Follow - up Actions - Before the implementation of the tariff measures last week, it was believed that the bond market rally driven by the revision of fundamental expectations in the second quarter might repeat in 2025. After the escalation of trade frictions, the yields of bonds at all maturities declined significantly, and investors were concerned about the downward space of interest rates [35]. - If priced at a funding rate of 1.65% - 1.7%, the downward space for short - and medium - term interest rates may be limited. However, due to the increased uncertainty in the domestic fundamental environment, the central bank may be more inclined to reduce costs, and the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q2 has increased significantly. In the short term, long - term interest rates may be more certain, and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds also have strong allocation value [36].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the U.S. reciprocal tariff policy on the global economic and political landscape is significant, but it may only result in a one-time shock to the A-share index, which is primarily driven by domestic policies and economic cycles [1][2][11] Short-term Impact - The tariff policy is expected to have a considerable impact on the global economy, but its effect on the A-share index may be less severe than anticipated. Historical events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, show that while global shocks can be significant, the A-share market's performance remained relatively stable [2][3] - The previous trade conflicts between the U.S. and China indicate that domestic economic cycles have a more substantial influence on the stock market than export data. The A-share market's resilience during the 2018-2019 trade tensions exemplifies this [6][9] Medium-term Impact - The influence of exports on the stock market is expected to be less significant than that of domestic economic cycles. The recovery of social financing and the end of the real estate downturn are anticipated to bolster domestic economic strength by 2025, which will be more impactful than export fluctuations [6][9] Long-term Impact - The optimal combination of technology, labor, and capital is crucial for economic growth, with trade policies serving as a means to achieve this. Historical patterns show that countries can develop through various means, not solely through traditional free trade [9][11] - China's manufacturing advantages suggest that the economy has moved beyond relying solely on exports for growth, allowing for a balanced approach in the current environment [11] A-share Strategy - The tariff shock is likely to prolong the current market volatility but is not expected to alter the overall bullish trend of the A-share market. The market's upward trajectory is supported by policy and valuation cycles, as well as the ongoing deleveraging in the real estate sector [1][11] - Current market conditions favor small-cap and low-price strategies, but historical trends indicate that these strategies may lose effectiveness as the market transitions into a new upward phase. A shift towards large-cap stocks is anticipated as the market stabilizes [14]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing structural adjustments, with small-cap indices leading the decline; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell by 1.19% and 1.04% respectively this week[2] - The VIX index has shown a mild increase, indicating rising risk aversion, while the overall market sentiment remains optimistic[2] Derivatives Market Insights - The SKEW for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 remains stable within the historical 35-55% range, suggesting an overall optimistic market sentiment[4] - Conversely, the near-term SKEW for CSI 500 is above the 80% threshold, indicating heightened expectations for significant downside risks in the short term[4] Dividend Forecasts - For the year ahead, the predicted dividend points for CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 are 80.96, 80.99, 65.01, and 64.64 respectively[4] - The CSI 500 is expected to have no dividends in the current contract but forecasts dividends of 4.93, 47.11, and 80.54 in subsequent contracts[9] Risk Factors - The results presented are based on historical data and modeling, which may be subject to failure risks due to market volatility uncertainties[5]