Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm) is nearing the end of its inefficient business adjustments, with profit improvements expected by Q3 2025. The company is benefiting from increased industry concentration and the development of innovative businesses, leading to a gradual increase in dividend payout ratios and a current valuation below historical averages. The company is rated "Buy" for the first time [1]. Group 1: Profit Improvement and Business Adjustments - By Q3 2025, the adjustment of inefficient businesses is nearing completion, resulting in a noticeable improvement in profits [1] - In Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.2 percentage points, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company is focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in 2025, which is expected to allow for sustained profit growth beyond expectations in 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Concentration and Growth Drivers - The concentration of the top four companies in the distribution industry has increased from 38.38% in 2019 to 42.69% in 2023, with Sinopharm's market share reaching 20.36% in 2023 [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Sinopharm's pharmaceutical distribution revenue is approximately 7% from 2018 to 2024, with projected revenue of about 424.6 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The growth drivers for pharmaceutical distribution include increased industry concentration, optimization of product structure towards high-demand and high-value products, and the advancement of innovative services [2] Group 3: Dividend Policy and Valuation - The company's dividend payout ratio has steadily increased from 28.1% in 2021 to 30.98% in 2024, with an average annual increase of 0.96 percentage points [3] - The average dividend yield over the past five years has been 4.45%, although it is expected to decrease to 3.47% in 2024 due to a decline in profits [3] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 0.71, which is below the five-year average of 0.81 [3] Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 577.19 billion yuan, 597.83 billion yuan, and 619.32 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 4%, and 4% respectively [4] - The expected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same period are 8.08 billion yuan, 8.75 billion yuan, and 9.52 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 7.27, 6.71, and 6.17 [4]

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration released the first version of the "Medical Insurance + Commercial Insurance Dual Directory" on December 7, which may boost investment enthusiasm for innovative drugs in the short term [1] - The innovative drug sector has seen a recent stock price correction, but the long-term logic of the rise of Chinese innovative drugs remains unchanged, suggesting that investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences should be emphasized [1] - High-end medical devices may present turning point opportunities, with pharmaceutical equipment benefiting from the overseas pharmaceutical investment upcycle and the recovery of in-hospital procurement driving business growth [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (589720) tracks the Innovation Drug Index (950161), which had a daily fluctuation of 20%, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies engaged in innovative drug research and related businesses in China [1] - The index includes companies from the biopharmaceutical and chemical pharmaceutical sectors, highlighting the high R&D investment and technological innovation characteristics of the Chinese innovative drug industry [1]

Group 1 - The overall market capitalization has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, indicating a significant improvement in investor confidence and expectations, with enhanced market resilience and risk resistance [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the direction and goals for the next phase of capital market reform, emphasizing the need to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [2] - The focus is on enhancing institutional inclusiveness for technological innovation, optimizing the market ecology for long-term investments, and better utilizing the capital market as a platform for resource allocation [2] Group 2 - The development of direct financing through equity and bonds is a key task outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan," aimed at improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been actively promoting multi-tiered capital market systems and enhancing services for high-quality technology enterprises [2][4] - The introduction of the "1+6" reform policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in June and the establishment of a growth tier for unprofitable companies in July are significant steps in this direction [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market plays a crucial role in serving the real economy and optimizing resource allocation, with a focus on developing technology and green bonds [4] - Since the launch of the "Technology Board" for bonds on May 7, 2023, a total of 11,672.67 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds have been issued by 530 institutions by the end of September [4][5] - The future of the bond market is expected to continue focusing on technology innovation, foreign openness, and green development, with a diverse range of issuers [5] Group 4 - The A-share merger and acquisition market has been heating up, with significant reforms in the M&A market aimed at supporting the transformation and upgrading of listed companies [6] - Since the implementation of the "M&A Six Guidelines," over 1,000 M&A transactions have been disclosed in the Shanghai market, with a notable increase in technology-related mergers [6] - The future role of M&A is expected to further enhance the integration of technology and industry, reflecting a shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven economic growth [6][7] Group 5 - The cultivation of high-quality listed companies is essential for the stable operation of the capital market, with ongoing reforms to improve the delisting mechanism [7] - The delisting mechanism is being optimized to ensure a more orderly market ecology, allowing for a more effective selection process [7] - The focus on enhancing the delisting standards and mechanisms aims to improve the overall health and resource allocation efficiency of the capital market [7] Group 6 - As of the end of August, medium- and long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan of A-share circulating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [8] - The acceleration of medium- and long-term funds entering the market is expected to stabilize market fluctuations and promote a shift towards value investment and long-term investment [8][9] - The establishment of a more attractive "long money, long investment" system environment is crucial for supporting innovation and capital formation [9][10] Group 7 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to position the capital market as an aggregator of innovation, linking technology, industry, and policy [10] - The focus will be on providing long-term patient capital for technological innovation and supporting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [10]

国内：俄气放量挤占LNG进口，价格回落驱动需求逐季改善。供应端国产气稳步增产，中俄东线爬坡 带动进口管道气量同比增长，LNG进口量受高价抑制，天然气对外依存度有所降低。需求端呈现"前低 后高、逐季修复"态势，中国石化经济技术研究院预计，2025年全年我国天然气表观消费量同比增长 1.2%。 城燃营收结构变化：接驳红利退潮、主业存量竞争与新增长动能 近年来城燃公司营收结构正经历深刻变化：1)受房地产下行影响，接驳业务收入和利润占比断崖式下 降，风险逐步释放;2)天然气消费总量增速放缓，售气主业进入存量竞争。3)综合能源等新业务成为第二 增长点。在此背景下，各家城燃公司由于自身特征，在各类风险和机遇里的暴露程度不一，应对策略既 有共性也有差异。接驳方面，中国燃气风险暴露最快但也最先释放，华润燃气一二线核心城市以及集团 地产协同带来的韧性使其风险暴露缓慢，新奥发力战略转型主动压缩接驳占比，当前接驳风险敞口适 中。新业态方面，新奥在综合能源方面发力早、扩张快、业务经验丰富，中燃在增值服务方面具备较强 优势。构建自主资源池成行业共识，下游聚焦各有侧重。在经历2022-2023年高气价、供需紧张的天然 气市场后，为降低对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology market currently lacks a clear main theme, but the release of the first "Medical Insurance + Commercial Insurance Dual Directory" by the National Healthcare Security Administration on December 7 may boost investment enthusiasm for innovative drugs [1] Market Performance - Last week, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had a return of -0.74%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.02%, ranking 21st among 31 primary sub-industry indices [2] - The pharmaceutical commercial sub-sector had the highest weekly return at 5.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.91%, while the medical services sub-sector ranked sixth with a return of -1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.65% [2] Innovative Drugs - Companies recommended for investment in innovative drugs include: - Innovent Biologics - 3SBio - Hengrui Medicine - Kelun-Biotech - Baillie Gifford - Rongchang Biologics - Yimeng Biologics - Huyou Pharmaceutical - King’s Ray Biotech - Valiant Biotech - Lee's Pharmaceutical [2] CXO and Life Sciences Upstream Industry Chain - Recommended global CXO leaders include: - WuXi AppTec - WuXi Biologics - WuXi AppTec's subsidiary - Kanglong Chemical - Kailai Ying [3] - Recommended domestic clinical CRO leaders include: - Tigermed - Proprius - Nossg - Sunshine Nuohe [3] - Recommended resource-type CXOs include: - Zhaoyan New Drug - Yinos - Medicy - Baiaosaitu - Yaokang Biotech [3] - Recommended companies in the life sciences upstream industry chain include: - Baipusais - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical - Bid Pharmaceutical - Nami Technology - Aopumai - Haier Biomedical - Aladdin - Titan Technology [3] Companies with Improved Operations and High Dividends - Companies recommended for attention include: - Baiyunshan - Sinopharm [4] High-end Medical Equipment - Recommended companies benefiting from overseas pharmaceutical investments include: - Sensong International - Dongfulong - Chutian Technology [4] - Companies expected to see business growth from hospital procurement recovery include: - United Imaging - Kaili Medical - Xinhua Medical - Mindray Medical - Aohua Endoscopy - Mountain Outside Mountain [4] - Companies with domestic demand-driven medical device recovery include: - Yiyue Medical - Kefu Medical - Sanofi Biotech [4] - Companies with restored overseas orders include: - Meihua Medical - Haitai New Light - Ruimaite [4] - Companies with increasing market penetration in high-end medical consumables include: - Xinmai Medical - Micron Medical - Weigao - Micron Brain Science - Aikang Medical - Chunli Medical [4]

Group 1 - CITIC Securities reports that a turning point in inventory has been observed since mid-November, with expectations for LME copper prices to accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year due to interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions [1] - Looking ahead to next year, the dual narrative of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to resonate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60%, with $12,000 becoming a new starting point for copper prices [1] - A comprehensive recommendation for allocation in the copper sector has been made [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities indicates that the foundation for a bull market remains solid, with the current market's low trading volume not being a negative signal, as historical patterns show that low volume often coincides with good buying opportunities during bull markets [2] - The report suggests that the end of the year may serve as a window for positioning ahead of a cross-year market rally, as adjustments typically occur before such rallies [2] - Huaxi Securities anticipates an influx of new capital into the A-share market at the year's end, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and favorable currency conditions for foreign investment in Chinese assets [3] - The report highlights sectors to focus on, including high-growth areas supported by industrial policy, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from improved overseas liquidity [3]

看好证券保险岁末年初行情！20251207 摘要 监管鼓励券商整合，支持并购重组，旨在提升行业集中度和竞争力，头 部券商如国泰海通的并购案例显示出规模效应，预示行业整合加速。 监管提倡价值竞争，转变过去的价格竞争模式，通过提供高质量服务获 客，稳定费率，促进券商行业健康发展，公募基金费率改革已落地，券 商轻资产业务费率预期触底。 险资偿付能力新规调整风险因子，降低了沪深 300、科创板股票及出口 信用保险业务的风险权重，支持长期资金入市，缓解了中小保险公司的 资本补充压力。 截至 2025 年 9 月末，险资二级市场权益配置规模达 5.59 万亿元，较 2024 年末增加 1.49 万亿元，配置比例接近 15%，提升 2.6 个百分点， 险资入市进程超预期。 调降股票投资风险因子预计为 A 股上市险企带来 789 亿元的股票增配空 间，并优化最低资本 200 亿元，核心和综合偿付能力充足率平均提升 1.5 和 2.1 个百分点。 末已大幅消除。此外，中金办理发行股份收购信达中心等并购事件也推动了整 个板块的表现。 吴清主席强调监管逐步回暖，并充分肯定过去四年多来证券公 司的整体发展，包括总资产、净资产及服务实 ...

信达证券：12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期；国海证券：春季躁动中值得关注的仍然是成长风格；开 源证券：可提前布局春季躁动。 沪指本周累计上涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说： ①信达证券：12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期 开源证券指出，近期市场回调暂告一段落，可提前布局春季躁动，交易和配置上应注意：（1）科技与 周期双轮驱动，反内卷下周期机会凸显；（2）科技依然具备中长期占优的条件；（3）在近期的调整 中，我们认为部分超跌的成长行业的机会已经有所显现:军工、传媒（游戏）、AI应用、港股互联网、 电力设备等；而未来机构的核心科技蓝筹或也将跟随修复。 ④银河证券：A股市场中长期向好逻辑不改 银河证券指出，年末行情轮动较快，或仍以震荡结构为主。同时，A股市场中长期向好逻辑不改。监管 层下调险企股票投资风险因子，将进一步释放保险资金入市潜力，为市场注入更多增量流动性。 ⑤华宝证券：建议12月优选景气度向上的行业进行提前布局 华宝证券指出，由守转攻，积极布局高景气方向等风起。内外部波动风险均有所缓和，前期热门成长板 块多数出现了止跌企稳的现象，12月有望进一步整固企 ...

本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券：当前市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 光大证券：国内外利好共振 市场有所回暖 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大 的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短 期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势 为主。 华金证券：春季行情开启了吗？ 当前来看，明年春季行情可能于今年12 月中下旬提前开启。（1）短期政策和外部事件可能偏积极。一 ...

来源：信达证券 核心结论：本周市场继续震荡，成交缩量。海外流动性扰动持续对风险偏好产生影响，日本央行释放出 可能再次加息的信号，引发市场担忧套息交易逆转风险上升。美元指数11 月以来在100 附近震荡，市场 对美联储12 月降息预期的博弈陷入拉锯战。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要原因或在于，当前市场资金 面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于中长期资金和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民资金大 幅流入。另外也有年底存量机构行为趋于稳健以及预期扰动下部分止盈资金离场的影响。但我们认为当 前时点可以保持乐观。一方面，牛市中低成交量不是利空信号，事后来看，成交量低点大多情况下是牛 市中较好的买入时点。另一方面，历史上跨年行情启动之前，市场大多会先有一定的调整，本质上是交 易性资金为博弈跨年行情腾挪安全边际。2025 年12 月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期。 （1）牛市中低成交量不是利空信号，事后来看，成交量低点大多情况下是牛市中较好的买入时点。本 轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要原因或在于当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于中长期资金和产业 资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民资金大幅流入。 年底存量机构行为趋于稳健以及 ...