文|周君芝、田雨侬 核心观点 重估中国居民资产负债表，重点看四组数据： ①2024年中国居民总资产763.7万亿，其中地产395.6万亿，存款163.2万亿。 ②过去20年，地产对中国居民财富贡献超过50%，考虑到居民存款增加来自地产驱动的信用扩张，地产 对居民财富的贡献更高。 ③2001至2020年，逾9亿城镇居民分享地产"造富"，居民资产扩张约18倍，地产财富增扩20倍。14亿人 经历了收入和生活水平广泛提升，人均GDP和人均可支配收入扩张均约8倍。 ④随着压缩城镇化时期过去，杠杆时代也将过去，与之伴随的财富创造和消费模式面临转型。 如此转型档口，"内需不足"与"消费滑落"是自然伴生的阶段性现象，即为"发展中、转型中的问题"。 与其期待消费再回到过去杠杆时代，还不如准备迎接未来四大新趋势。 摘要 地产对过去以及当下中国经济的重要性，不言而喻。地产的重要性体现在五个维度，投资、资产、金 融、消费和财政。 而这五个维度的影响可以用国家资产负债表来清晰表达，尤其是居民部门的资产负债表。 重估居民资产负债表，最终我们可以更加清晰理解过去时代，中国居民如何搭乘地产的列车而开启了轰 轰烈烈的财富扩张；未来地产转型，中 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a favorable cross-year trend, supported by a better liquidity and exchange rate environment compared to previous years [1] - The strong performance of the RMB and a generally loose domestic liquidity environment are anticipated to contribute to a "good start" for the A-share market after the New Year [1] - Multiple positive factors, including RMB appreciation, concentrated benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the funding environment, are likely to drive the continuation of the cross-year trend in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - The current market risk appetite remains high, providing room for high-elasticity technology themes to continue their upward trajectory [2] - Despite the overall valuation level of the technology sector being relatively high, it has not yet entered a frenzy stage, indicating a significant gap from historical bubble periods [2] - Global liquidity expectations are anticipated to further support high-valuation technology assets, with a focus on sectors such as robotics, sports, and non-bank segments, while caution is advised against overcrowded areas like commercial aerospace [2] Group 3 - The improvement in industry prosperity is primarily reflected in price increases, with significant price rises observed in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as in base metals such as copper [3] - The basic chemical sector has seen marginal price increases in methanol, asphalt, natural rubber, and in power equipment, particularly lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [3] - The semiconductor sales cycle is on the rise, maintaining industry prosperity, with several foundries and storage manufacturers recently signaling price increases [3]

Group 1 - The overseas commercial aerospace industry has established a clear development pattern and mature path, with the U.S. leading through legislation, NASA's substantial procurement contracts, and regulatory relaxation, achieving a radical shift from state-led to fully privatized low Earth orbit operations [2][1] - Different countries have adopted various models to promote commercial aerospace, with the U.S. focusing on privatization, Europe emphasizing national collaboration, Russia continuing a state-led approach, and India transitioning from ISRO monopoly to private capital involvement [2][1] Group 2 - Technological breakthroughs are the core engine driving cost reduction and efficiency in commercial aerospace, with reusable rocket technology significantly lowering launch costs and modular satellite technology enhancing production efficiency [3][1] - The market for in-orbit services, such as satellite longevity and debris removal, is rapidly growing, ensuring the sustainable operation of space assets as the number of satellites in orbit increases [3][1] Group 3 - Successful sustainable business models have been validated in the overseas commercial aerospace sector, with SpaceX leveraging reusable rocket technology and government contracts to transition from a launch service provider to a global telecommunications operator [4][1] - Companies like PlanetLabs are generating stable cash flow through standardized satellite imagery subscription services, indicating the potential for profitability in the commercial aerospace sector [4][1] Group 4 - For China's commercial aerospace development, there is a need to strengthen legislative and procurement support, focus on cost reduction technologies like reusable rockets, and leverage capital markets to accelerate the maturity of the industry chain and ecosystem [1][4]

中信建投证券研报指出，2025年以来，受到低迷的产品价格影响，合盛硅业盈利有所下滑。但一方面目 前公司主要产品价格都在底部，可以说价格继续下行的空间已经不大。另一方面，25年下半年以来，在 有机硅、多晶硅行业均已经看到了"反内卷"相关政策或举措的落地。综合而言，认为行业景气度将逐步 回暖，带动公司盈利的逐步回升。公司作为硅行业龙头，仍然有充分投资价值。目前产业链景气度仍然 低迷，但反内卷之下，行业反转的曙光已现，后续可预期公司聚焦在优势的工业硅、有机硅业务，且盈 利随着行业转暖不断改善，债务问题也有望在进一步的盈利回升、股权融资之下得到有效缓解。维持对 公司的"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since 2025, the profitability of Hoshine Silicon Industry has declined due to sluggish product prices, but the current prices are at a low point with limited room for further decline [1] Industry Summary - The organic silicon and polysilicon industries have seen the implementation of "anti-involution" policies or measures since the second half of 2025, suggesting a gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1] - The overall industry environment remains weak, but signs of a turnaround are emerging under the anti-involution context [1] Company Summary - As a leading company in the silicon industry, Hoshine Silicon Industry still holds significant investment value [1] - The company is expected to focus on its strengths in industrial silicon and organic silicon businesses, with profitability improving as the industry warms up [1] - Debt issues are anticipated to be effectively alleviated through further profit recovery and equity financing [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 116 companies were listed on the A-share market, representing a 16% increase from 100 companies in the same period last year [1] - The net fundraising amount for these 116 newly listed companies reached 122.025 billion yuan, a significant increase of 104.25% compared to 59.743 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The total fees charged by IPO intermediaries for these companies amounted to 9.156 billion yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 6.704 billion yuan, legal fees for 0.821 billion yuan, and audit fees for 1.631 billion yuan [1] Segment Analysis Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - The total underwriting and sponsorship fees ranked by board are as follows: Sci-Tech Innovation Board (21.54 billion yuan), Shanghai Main Board (15.37 billion yuan), Growth Enterprise Market (15.11 billion yuan), Shenzhen Main Board (9.24 billion yuan), and Beijing Stock Exchange (5.78 billion yuan) [2][3] - The average underwriting fee is highest for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 11.337 million yuan, while the lowest is for the Beijing Stock Exchange at 2.222 million yuan [4] Legal Fees - The total legal fees ranked by firms are led by Shanghai Jintiancheng (1.14 billion yuan), followed by Beijing Zhonglun (1.05 billion yuan), and Zhejiang Tiance (0.57 billion yuan) [7][8] - The average legal fee is highest for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 832.01 thousand yuan, and lowest for the Beijing Stock Exchange at 364.62 thousand yuan [4] Audit Fees - The top three audit firms by total fees are Rongcheng (4.17 billion yuan), Tianjian (2.86 billion yuan), and Lixin (2.19 billion yuan) [10][11] - The average audit fee is highest for the Shanghai Main Board at 1.8518 million yuan, and lowest for the Beijing Stock Exchange at 632.39 thousand yuan [4]

Group 1: Tesla and Robotics - Tesla's Gen3 is entering a new product release phase, with domestic manufacturers accelerating new product launches and capital operations, suggesting a focus on quality segments to capture certainty and core changes [1] - The domestic robotics industry is experiencing positive changes driven by policy, product, and capital, with significant events such as the launch of the world's first full-body force-controlled humanoid robot by Weiqi Qiyuan and the IPO plans of Yujian [1] Group 2: Construction Machinery - It is expected that excavator sales, both domestic and international, will achieve double-digit growth in December, with November domestic sales up 9% year-on-year and export sales up 18% [2] - Non-excavator machinery has shown strong performance since Q3, with notable increases in sales for automotive cranes and crawler cranes, indicating a positive trend in the construction machinery sector [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment - Changxin Technology's IPO application has been accepted, signaling the start of a storage cycle, with equipment orders expected to maintain high growth rates [3] - The capital expenditure for fab plants is projected to continue rising through 2026, particularly in the storage sector, which shows the strongest certainty [3] Group 4: Lithium Battery Equipment - Xinjie Energy has crossed the GWh production threshold, marking a significant step for solid-state lithium metal batteries towards commercialization [4] - The mid-term acceptance of solid-state batteries is proceeding as planned, with technology solutions converging and upcoming tenders from major manufacturers [4] Group 5: PCB Equipment - The PCB industry is returning to an upward trend, characterized by product high-endization and factory establishment in Southeast Asia, which is expected to drive demand for PCB equipment upgrades [5] - Specific segments of PCB equipment, such as drilling and plating, hold significant value and barriers, influencing circuit board performance [5] Group 6: Forklifts and Mobile Robots - Forklift sales have maintained growth, with November showing a 4% increase in domestic sales and an 11% increase in exports, indicating a positive outlook for the logistics sector [7] - Major companies are actively developing smart logistics and unmanned forklift products, which are expected to see rapid market adoption [7] Group 7: Recommended Companies in Machinery Sector - Key companies recommended include Hengli Hydraulic, Obit Optical, LiuGong, XCMG, and others, indicating a strong outlook for the machinery sector [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that incremental capital entering the market will not be the main factor for the market to reach a new level in 2026, with the biggest expectation gap coming from the balance between external and internal demand [1] - The trend of imposing tariffs externally and subsidizing domestic demand is expected to be a major direction, with this year being an important starting point [1] - The market is likely to experience a higher probability of upward fluctuations at the beginning of the year, considering the relatively low capital enthusiasm at the end of last year [1] Group 2 - The A-share cross-year market trend is unfolding as expected, with the liquidity and exchange rate environment at the beginning of this year being significantly better than the previous two years [1] - The strong renminbi exchange rate and favorable external environment may lead to a "New Year Red" market for A-shares after the New Year [1] - Multiple positive factors, including renminbi appreciation, concentrated benefits in the technology sector, improved macroeconomic expectations, and positive signals in the capital market, are expected to drive the A-share cross-year market [1] Group 3 - On January 5, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 4000 points after 34 trading days, with a rise of 0.85% to 4002.40 points [2] - Insurance stocks led the gains, while sectors such as brain-computer interfaces and semiconductors were active [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 116 companies were listed on the A-share market, representing a 16% increase from 100 companies in the same period last year [1] - The net fundraising amount for these 116 newly listed companies reached 1220.25 billion yuan, a significant increase of 104.25% compared to 597.43 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The total fees charged by IPO intermediaries for these companies amounted to 91.56 billion yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 67.04 billion yuan, legal fees for 8.21 billion yuan, and audit fees for 16.31 billion yuan [1] Segment Analysis Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - The total underwriting and sponsorship fees by segment are ranked as follows: Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Shanghai Main Board, ChiNext, Shenzhen Main Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange [2] - The average underwriting fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 11,337.61 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 2,222.30 thousand yuan [5][6] - The total underwriting fees are led by CITIC Securities with 12.44 billion yuan from 15 deals, followed by Guotai Junan and CITIC Jinshi with 9.96 billion yuan and 8.82 billion yuan, respectively [8][10] Legal Fees - The top three law firms by total fees are Shanghai Jintiancheng, Beijing Zhonglun, and Zhejiang Tiance, with total fees of 1.14 billion yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 0.57 billion yuan, respectively [11] - The average legal fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 832.01 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 364.62 thousand yuan [5] Audit Fees - The leading audit firms by total fees are Rongcheng, Tianjian, and Lixin, with total fees of 4.17 billion yuan, 2.86 billion yuan, and 2.19 billion yuan, respectively [12][14] - The average audit fee is highest in the Shanghai Main Board at 1,851.80 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 632.39 thousand yuan [6] Overall Fee Structure - The total fees for intermediaries in the IPO process are distributed as follows: underwriting fees (67.04 billion yuan), legal fees (8.21 billion yuan), and audit fees (16.31 billion yuan) [1][4] - The average fees across segments indicate that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board commands the highest fees overall, while the Beijing Stock Exchange has the lowest average fees [5][6]

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，2025年12月31日，证监会修订发布《公开募集证券投资基金 销售费用管理规定》。《规定》共6章29条，旨在落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，进一步 降低基金投资者投资成本，规范公募基金销售市场秩序，保护基金投资者合法权益。相较此前9月5日发 布的征求意见，正式稿进一步明确主动偏股、指数基金认购费率上限，在债基、个人持有指数基金惩罚 性赎回费要求上作出放宽，新增条款禁止基金产品在销售渠道上的排他性安排，以及将整改时限延长到 12个月等。 中信建投主要观点如下： 2025年12月31日，证监会修订发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》 2025年12月31日，证监会修订发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》，相较此前9 月5 日发 布的征求意见，正式稿进一步明确主动偏股、指数基金认购费率上限，在债基、个人持有指数基金惩罚 性赎回费要求上作出放宽，新增条款禁止基金产品在销售渠道上的排他性安排，以及将整改时限延长到 12个月等，其余条款变动不大。 聚焦新规正式稿相较征求意见的几大核心变化： 变化一：明确对主动偏股基金、指数基金认(申)购费率上限要求。征求意见 ...