Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the materials sector in Asia Pacific, specifically discussing copper, coal, and aluminum producers [1][6]. Copper Industry Insights - **MMG's Operations**: - Political instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to electricity rationing, increasing reliance on diesel power. However, the conflict is over 1,000 km away, posing minimal risks to operations [2]. - Mining costs are rising due to deeper mining operations, but MMG aims to reduce unit costs as production volumes increase [2]. - Las Bambas produced 320,000 tons of copper in 2024, with a target of 360,000-400,000 tons for 2025. Tax disputes in Peru are currently favorable for the company [9]. - Kinsevere targets 63,000-69,000 tons of copper production in 2025, ramping up to full capacity of 80,000 tons [10]. Thermal Coal Industry Insights - **Shenhua Energy**: - Long-term price contracts are expected to be honored despite falling spot prices. The coal association has proposed import restrictions to shift towards higher-quality products [3]. - Power prices have decreased by an average of Rmb 0.01/kWh, with further reductions expected, particularly in Guangdong Province, which may see a 15% cut [3][16]. - The Xinjie project is under construction, expected to start production in 2029 with a capacity of 7-8 million tons [3]. Aluminum Industry Insights - **Chalco**: - The company maintains a hard cap of 45.2 million tons for aluminum capacity and has no plans for expansion outside China [4]. - Current production costs are Rmb 17,000-17,500 per ton for aluminum and Rmb 2,500-2,800 per ton for alumina [21]. - Chalco aims to increase its green power consumption to 52-53% by the end of 2025, up from 45.5% [25]. Local Government Debt Restructuring - Total local government debt exceeds Rmb 40 trillion, with hidden liabilities estimated at Rmb 50-60 trillion. The central government is implementing debt swaps to lower effective interest rates from 4-5% to 2-3% [5]. Key Risks and Opportunities - **Copper**: - Risks include potential disruptions in Peru and changes in mining laws that could increase tax rates [33]. - Opportunities arise from tighter copper concentrate supply and stronger-than-expected demand due to stimulus plans [33]. - **Coal**: - Risks include slower-than-expected coal demand and lower domestic coal prices [39]. - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected coal demand and higher realized prices [39]. - **Aluminum**: - Risks include weaker-than-expected demand and supply cuts [40]. - Opportunities may arise from better-than-expected demand and faster production resumption [40]. Conclusion - The conference call provided insights into the current state and future outlook of the copper, coal, and aluminum industries in Asia Pacific, highlighting operational challenges, production targets, and market dynamics that could influence investment decisions in these sectors.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal investments due to the expected recovery in domestic demand amid escalating trade tensions. The coal market is viewed as a defensive asset class, particularly in light of the current economic environment and monetary policy shifts [3][4][13]. - The coal prices have stabilized at ports, with CCTD thermal coal Q5500 priced at 676 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The report notes that the market sentiment is improving as inventory issues begin to ease [3][4]. - The report outlines several factors that could support a rebound in coal prices, including the long-term contract price ceiling, the maintenance of the annual contract system, and the linkage between coal and electricity prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economy and external pressures from U.S. tariffs create a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][13]. - The cyclical nature of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices at low levels, suggesting potential for recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][13]. Key Market Indicators - The report provides a snapshot of key indicators, noting that the coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.17 percentage points, with a weekly decline of 5.04% [8][10]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.2, and the PB ratio is 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [10][14]. Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have remained stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady. The report notes a slight increase in prices at some production sites, indicating a mixed market response [3][4][16]. - The report also highlights the international coal price trends, with Newcastle prices showing slight increases, while domestic prices remain competitive against imports [16][17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 6, the operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 81.7%, a slight decrease from the previous week. Coastal power plants' daily coal consumption has also seen a minor decline [3][4][16]. - The report indicates that non-electric coal demand is showing signs of improvement, with methanol and urea production rates increasing, which may further support coal inventory reduction [3][4][16]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report lists several coal companies with strong dividend potential and cyclical recovery prospects, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [4][14][18]. - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to see increased capital inflows as institutional investors recognize the current valuation as a bottoming opportunity [4][13].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 】 2025 04 13 年 月 日 煤炭开采 3 重倒挂助煤价以时间换空间，"中特煤"以行动书写担当 行情回顾（2025.4.7~2025.4.11）： 基本面方面，我们持续强调"把握行业本质属性，坚定信心、坚守定力"。 "一利稳定增长，五率持续优化"，着力提高央企控股上市公司质量，强化投资者回 报。 中信煤炭指数 3,157.77 点，下跌 5.04%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.16pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 本周两大煤炭央企发声"积极支持控股上市公司高质量发展"。此外，多部委机构打 出稳市组合拳，场外增量资金充足，我们认为"财务报表优异，低资本开支&现金流 充裕，具备高分红、高股息的央企"尤为受益。 考虑到煤价属周期波动，煤炭企业或通过加大成本管控力度，保证企业效益稳步提 升。以神华、中煤两大央企为例，在 24 年煤价中枢明显下移的背景下，其业绩降幅 显著低于煤价降幅，降本增效成效显著，诚意满满。 加大回购注销、分红力度，推动资产注入，延伸产业链布局均是提高 ROE 的方向。 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -30% -2 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their strong financial performance and potential for high dividends [8][10]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but companies are focusing on cost control and operational efficiency to maintain profitability. Major state-owned enterprises like Shenhua and China Coal have shown a significant reduction in performance decline compared to coal price drops, indicating effective cost management [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining investor confidence through high-quality development and asset integration within state-owned enterprises [2][3]. - The current coal prices are seen as bottoming out, with expectations of benefiting from domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and increasing domestic demand [2][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 5.04% during the week of April 7-11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.16 percentage points [1][75]. - The report notes that the coal market is currently in a phase of narrow fluctuations, with supply stability and limited demand growth impacting price movements [11][33]. Key Company Analysis - China Shenhua's coal production cost for 2024 is reported at 179 RMB/ton, remaining stable year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost is 282 RMB/ton, down 25 RMB/ton from the previous year [6][8]. - Both companies are expected to increase share buybacks and dividends, enhancing shareholder returns [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal market is characterized by a seasonal downturn, with limited demand from power plants and a shift towards cleaner energy sources impacting coal consumption [11][33]. - The report highlights that the focus on cost control and operational efficiency is crucial for maintaining profitability amid fluctuating coal prices [3][8]. Price Trends - As of April 11, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 676 RMB/ton, showing stability week-on-week [11][33]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, but significant price drops are not expected in the short term [11][33].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Energy Dividend Index (H50021) opened lower but closed higher, down 0.71% at 4181.54 points with a trading volume of 3.415 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Energy Dividend Index has decreased by 2.87% over the past month, 7.36% over the past three months, and 14.54% year-to-date [2] - The index is composed entirely of the energy sector, with a 100% weight in the Shanghai Stock Exchange [3][4] Group 2 - The index is adjusted annually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of December [4] - A buffer zone is set for dividend conditions, allowing samples with a cash dividend yield greater than 0.5% to be exempt from certain requirements [4] - The adjustment ratio is generally limited to 20%, unless significant changes occur in the industry or if more than 20% of samples are removed due to low dividend yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Dividend Potential Index (H50020) experienced a slight decline of 0.12%, closing at 6806.28 points, with a trading volume of 35.597 billion yuan, reflecting the overall performance of companies with strong dividend expectations and capabilities [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shanghai Dividend Potential Index has increased by 0.47% over the past month and by 2.45% over the past three months, but has decreased by 2.73% year-to-date [1] - The index is based on a comprehensive ranking of securities using indicators such as EPS, undistributed profits per share, and ROE, selecting the top 50 securities to represent the index [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index are: China Merchants Bank (16.94%), Kweichow Moutai (15.89%), Ping An Insurance (13.85%), Yangtze Power (8.97%), Yili Group (6.89%), China Shenhua Energy (5.92%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (3.54%), Wanhua Chemical (2.54%), Anhui Conch Cement (2.04%), and Fuyao Glass (2.0%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1] Group 3: Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index holdings includes: Financials (30.78%), Consumer Staples (29.53%), Energy (13.85%), Utilities (8.97%), Consumer Discretionary (6.53%), Materials (6.01%), Healthcare (1.63%), Information Technology (1.49%), Industrials (0.58%), Communication Services (0.32%), and Real Estate (0.30%) [2] Group 4: Sample Adjustment Criteria - The index samples are adjusted annually, with the next adjustment occurring on the trading day following the second Friday of December [3] - Samples that do not meet the following criteria are removed: (1) Cash dividends distributed in the past year must be at least 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders; (2) Average total market capitalization must rank within the top 90% of the Shanghai 180 Index; (3) Average trading volume must also rank within the top 90% of the Shanghai 180 Index [3] - The adjustment typically does not exceed 20% unless more than 20% of the original samples are disqualified based on the dividend criteria [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong Dividend Index has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 1.42% but a decline of 8.35% over the past month, indicating volatility in high dividend yield securities in the Hong Kong market [1][2] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong Dividend Index closed at 2946.02 points with a trading volume of 24.838 billion yuan [1] - The index has experienced a decline of 0.51% over the past three months and a year-to-date decrease of 4.42% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 30 securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, selected based on high cash dividend yields, stable dividends, and liquidity [1] - The top ten weighted securities in the index include: - Bank of China (10.98%) - China Mobile (10.86%) - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (10.55%) - China Construction Bank (9.91%) - CNOOC (8.97%) - Agricultural Bank of China (5.99%) - Bank of Communications (5.23%) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (4.97%) - China Shenhua Energy (4.6%) - China Petroleum (4.17%) [1] Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index shows that finance accounts for 49.43%, energy for 25.80%, communication services for 16.88%, and other sectors such as industrial, materials, utilities, and real estate make up the remaining percentages [2] - The index is adjusted annually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of December [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strong support from state-owned enterprises for high-quality development of listed companies, highlighting the importance of maintaining stable profits and optimizing operational efficiency [3][6]. - It notes that despite cyclical fluctuations in coal prices, leading companies have managed to reduce costs and improve efficiency, resulting in performance declines that are significantly lower than the price drops [3]. - The report suggests that the current coal price is at a bottom range, with expectations of recovery driven by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting demand [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The coal mining sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with major state-owned enterprises actively supporting their listed subsidiaries to enhance investor confidence and market stability [5][6]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to maintaining a stable economic environment, which is expected to benefit the coal sector [3]. Financial Performance - China Shenhua's coal production cost for 2024 is reported at 179 RMB/ton, remaining stable year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost is 282 RMB/ton, down 25 RMB/ton from the previous year [10]. - The report indicates that both companies are focusing on increasing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, with China Shenhua planning a cash dividend of 2.26 RMB/share, representing a high payout ratio of 76.5% [10]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and others, based on their strong financial performance and potential for future growth [9][10]. - It suggests that the coal sector is well-positioned to benefit from domestic policies aimed at stimulating investment and consumption, which could lead to improved demand for coal [5][10].

（在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 北京，2025年4月8日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括執行董事張長岩先生，非執行董事康鳳偉先生及 李新華先生，獨立非執行董事袁國強博士、陳漢文博士及王虹先生，職工董事焦 蕾女士。 （股份代碼：01088） 董事會召開通知 中國神華能源股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此公佈，本公司將 於2025年4月25日於北京舉行董事會會議，藉以審議並（如認為適當）批准本公司 截至2025年3月31日止之三個月的業績公告等事宜。 承董事會命 中國神華能源股份有限公司 總會計師、董事會秘書 宋靜剛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Chairman Lv Zhiyun marks a significant transition for China Shenhua, a leading player in the coal industry, raising questions about the company's future performance and strategy in a changing market environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Lv Zhiyun's departure signifies a new phase for China Shenhua, as he has been a pivotal figure in the company and the coal sector [1] - Under Lv's leadership, China Shenhua demonstrated resilience in performance, with its stock price increasing nearly 2.5 times in recent years despite industry challenges [2] - The new leadership will face the challenge of maintaining high dividend payouts to retain investor confidence while navigating the transition to renewable energy [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - China Shenhua has distributed approximately 90 billion yuan in dividends over the past two years, averaging over 1 billion yuan per day, which has attracted investor interest [2] - The company has managed to maintain stable operations despite significant fluctuations in coal prices during Lv's tenure [1][2] Group 3: Market Challenges - The coal market is experiencing oversupply pressures, and the renegotiation of long-term contracts may impact the company's performance [2] - The coal industry faces increasing competition from advancing renewable energy technologies and stricter regulatory policies, necessitating greater investment in clean production [2][3] - The future performance of China Shenhua in the post-Lv era remains uncertain, with the need for strategic adaptation to ensure sustainable development [3]