都说民航是"看天吃饭"的行业，航司能不能赚钱，就和天气一样难预测。 行业的整体盈利有多薄？国际航协 （IATA）有个令人咋舌的比喻：苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳，都 比航空公司运一名客人赚得多——后者平均利润只有7.9美元。 薄利是全球航空业的共同现实，而对于刚走出多年亏损阴影的中国航司巨头来说，挑战显得尤其严峻。 2020年至2024年，国航、东航和南航累计亏损高达2064亿元。直到今年三季度末，三大航才终于"咸鱼 翻身"，前三季度合计盈利62.8亿元。 但全年下来能否盈利？仍然存在变数。 环球旅讯特约评论员高思伟指出，今年前三季度的整体盈利，很大程度上依赖第三季度的强劲表现，其 实是"用Q3旺势，填平Q1和Q2的亏损"。 2025年暑运期间，全国民航平均客座率达到约84.8%的高位，反映出旺季国内出行需求强劲。 在这一背 景下，国内航线的市场定价能力有所修复，高峰时段主要干线的票价也呈现一定支撑。 也正因为如此，三季度的盈利更像一次"结构性修复"，而非单点运气。 其中，国内市场的作用并不在于创造高利润率，而在于通过高客座率和规模化运行，在旺季阶段形成了 可留存的现金流与利润基础。 真正的考验，集中在第 ...

北京商报讯（记者 关子辰 牛清妍）12月26日，首都机场举办航旅嘉年华活动。北京商报记者从活动上获悉，首都机场今年的旅客量预计达到7000万人次， 航班量43万架次。 发布会上，北京市文旅局以及黑龙江机场、吉林机场、河北机场的推介官分别介绍了当地冰雪旅游资源及线路，国航向观众推介了"国航+"产品。 此外，首都机场与中旅旅行即将于新年后在3号航站楼国际到达区域共建入境游服务柜台，整合酒店预订、旅游用车、入境游产品预订等核心功能，为国际 中转及入境旅客提供全面优质的服务。 本次首都机场航旅嘉年华以"冰雪游"和"入境游"为主题。12月26日至28日，首都机场集团成员单位、首都机场驻场中外航空公司、在线商旅平台等近40家单 位联合推出了航旅市集，旅客可参与盲盒抽奖、打卡集章以及"豆汁挑战赛"等活动。 截至目前，首都机场航线网络已经覆盖57个国家的225个航点，其中国际及地区航点97个，洲际航点已增加至52个位列全国第一。首都机场联合航空公司开 通或加频马累、奥斯陆、金边、莫斯科等多条国际航线。 首都机场新升级"中转助手"和"入境助手"服务团队，为中转旅客提供"登机口到登机口"一对一陪同服务，为入境旅客提供现场引导与咨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight increase of 0.17% on December 25, with significant contributions from airlines like Juneyao Airlines, while the overall market indices also showed positive movements [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up by 0.47%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up by 0.33% [1]. - Juneyao Airlines led the aviation sector with a closing price of 14.08, reflecting a rise of 1.51% [1]. - Other notable performers included CITIC Offshore Helicopter and Spring Airlines, both showing increases of 1.51% and 1.46% respectively [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Trading Volume - The trading volume for Juneyao Airlines was 201,600 shares, with a transaction value of 285 million yuan [1]. - China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines remained stable, with no change in their stock prices, while Shanghai Airport and Air China saw minor increases of 0.39% and 0.46% respectively [1]. - The overall trading volume in the aviation sector indicated a mixed performance, with some stocks experiencing declines [2]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The aviation sector saw a net outflow of 336 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 388 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicated that Shanghai Airport had a net inflow of 27.85 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail and speculative investors [3]. - Conversely, Air China experienced significant net outflows from institutional investors amounting to 60.80 million yuan, while retail investors showed a net inflow of 65.73 million yuan [3].

虹桥机场在隔离区内设置了专属服务点位，如旅客在隔离区内发出签转申请，机场相关保障单位将提供 跨航司行李签转服务，实现行李同步签转的无缝衔接。沪渝快线跨航司自愿签转服务推出后，虹桥机场 成为国内唯一同时在京沪、沪深、沪渝三大枢纽航线上实现跨航司签转的机场，"虹桥快线"服务范围进 一步拓展，为跨航司协同合作搭建了更加广阔的平台，机场、航司共同携手提升旅客航空出行服务体 验。 据悉，虹桥机场沪渝快线当前日均计划往返航班量达到32班，2025年预计运输旅客超183万人次。（编 辑：许浩存 校对：陈虹莹 审核：程凌） 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者钱擘 通讯员尚机轩 报道：12月22日，虹桥机场的沪渝快线跨航司自 愿签转服务上线，并在国内机场首次实现隔离区内、有托运行李的跨航司签转，更好满足长三角与成渝 地区间商务及高频出行旅客的航空出行需求。 这一服务是在民航局运输司、民航华东地区管理局、民航西南地区管理局指导下，上海虹桥机场、重庆 江北机场联合东航、国航、吉祥航、厦航共同推出的。 乘坐东航、国航、厦航或吉祥航承运的"上海虹桥—重庆江北"航班，且购买经济舱6折（含）以上舱位 （含超级经济舱、公务舱，限同物理舱位等级 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the launch of a new air route connecting Chongqing, China, to Tashkent, Uzbekistan, which is expected to enhance economic and cultural exchanges between the two countries [1] - The new route, CA779, operates on Wednesdays and Fridays for outbound flights, and CA780 operates on Thursdays and Saturdays for return flights, allowing for efficient travel with luggage transfer [1] - The opening of this air route is seen as a significant step in building an air bridge between Southwest China and Central Asia, facilitating deeper cooperation in trade, culture, and industry [1] Group 2 - Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport has also opened and restored several international routes this year, including Brussels, Auckland, Moscow, Tokyo, and Yangon, while increasing flights to Madrid, Seoul, and Bangkok [2] - Currently, the airport operates 38 international (regional) passenger routes with nearly 200 weekly flights, establishing a comprehensive route network covering North America, Europe, Oceania, the Middle East, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [13]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to experience a supply-demand mismatch, with demand trends showing a determined upward trajectory while actual supply is projected to decline. This situation is anticipated to lead to a price reversal starting in 2026, with profitability gradually improving until 2030 [3][10]. - The demand structure is diverse, comprising domestic business travel, personal travel, inbound foreign tourists, and outbound Chinese tourists. The industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028, with international demand growth outpacing domestic [8][45]. - Supply constraints are primarily driven by prolonged engine maintenance cycles and geopolitical tensions affecting aircraft manufacturing, leading to a forecasted decline in actual supply growth from 2026 to 2028 [9][25]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The aviation industry operates under a multi-factor model influenced by demand, supply, oil prices, and exchange rates. The supply is predominantly controlled by overseas manufacturers, making it a seller's market with long aircraft introduction cycles [7][25]. Demand - The demand is categorized into four segments: domestic business (42%), domestic personal travel (35%), inbound foreign tourists (17%), and outbound Chinese tourists (6%). The demand is expected to show resilience against economic fluctuations, with a projected CAGR of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028 [8][45]. Supply - The supply side is constrained by extended engine maintenance cycles, which are expected to triple starting in 2025, leading to a decrease in available aircraft. The net introduction of new aircraft is anticipated to remain low, with a compound growth rate of approximately 2.6% over the next three years [9][25]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in major airlines such as China National Aviation (H+A), Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, as the industry prepares for a cyclical recovery driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and potential cost reductions in oil and exchange rates [3][10].

Group 1 - Airline stocks experienced significant declines, with China Southern Airlines down 2.49% to HKD 5.49, China Eastern Airlines down 2.51% to HKD 5.04, Air China down 2.75% to HKD 6.73, and Cathay Pacific down 1.01% to HKD 12.75 [1] - Approximately 2,195 round-trip flights between China and Japan have been canceled for January, resulting in an overall cancellation rate of 40.4%, with 46 routes completely canceled in the next two weeks [1] - The peak of ticket refunds is expected to continue until the end of December, indicating ongoing challenges for the airline industry [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Cathay Securities, domestic oil ticket prices in December showed a year-on-year decline, while month-on-month trends remained normal, suggesting improvements in revenue management for 2024 [1] - The pre-sale trends for the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays are positive, with expectations of significant reductions in losses for Q4 2025 and a potential turnaround for the full year [1] - Post-New Year, business travel is anticipated to remain active, with airlines maintaining an optimistic outlook, although the impact of the 2026 Spring Festival holiday is expected to be weaker [1]

中新网重庆12月23日电 (梁钦卿)记者23日从重庆江北国际机场获悉，"渝沪快线"跨航司自愿签转服务22 日正式上线运行。 自12月22日起，乘坐东航、国航、厦航或吉祥航空承运的"重庆江北—上海虹桥"双向航班，且购买经济 舱6折(含)以上舱位(含超级经济舱、公务舱，限同物理舱位等级)的旅客，可在原购票航班当日起飞前， 签转至原航班起飞时间前后4小时(含)内同航段其他参与航司航班。同一客票首次签转免收变更费。 据悉，"渝沪快线"日均计划往返航班量达到32班，预计2025年该航线运输旅客将超过183万人次，在服 务两地人员往来、经济发展、文化交流等方面发挥重要作用。(完) 这一创新服务是由重庆江北国际机场、上海虹桥国际机场联合东航、国航、厦航、吉祥航空共同推出， 旨在进一步提升国内航空快线服务品质，更好满足成渝地区与长三角地区间商务旅客及高频出行人群的 灵活、高效出行需求。 与此前上线的京广、京沪、深沪国内航空快线跨航司签转服务相比，"渝沪快线"首次实现隔离区内、有 托运行李旅客的跨航司签转，进一步拓展了签转服务场景，提高旅客出行选择灵活性，增强航空出行竞 争力。 重庆江北国际机场和上海虹桥国际机场在隔离区内均设 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant increase in international travel demand for Chinese airlines next year, driven by more countries implementing visa-free policies for Chinese travelers and a continued shortage of flight capacity, which may lead to higher ticket prices [1] - The forecast for international passenger flow has been revised upward due to improved Chinese export activities and the implementation of visa-free policies, with an expected return on equity for airline stocks reaching 22% by 2027 [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on airline stocks despite ongoing tourism risks related to Japan, specifically recommending China National Aviation Holdings (00753) with a "buy" rating for both H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 2 - In the broader transportation sector, Goldman Sachs holds an optimistic view on oil tanker companies, predicting further increases in spot freight rates during a sustained upward cycle through 2026 [1] - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) is expected to benefit from its high exposure to oil tankers and Chinese import business, also receiving a "buy" rating [1] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs has turned bearish on container shipping companies, noting that this year's new ship orders exceeded expectations, leading to an order-to-existing capacity ratio of 33%, which may result in a deeper and longer downturn [1] - China Merchants Industry Holdings (01919) has been given a sell rating due to these concerns [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs anticipates a rise in international travel demand for Chinese airlines next year, driven by more countries implementing visa-free policies for Chinese travelers and a continued shortage of flight capacity, which may lead to higher ticket prices [1] - The forecast for international passenger flow has been upgraded due to improved Chinese export activities and the implementation of visa-free policies, with an expected return on equity for airline stocks reaching 22% by 2027 [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on airline stocks despite ongoing tourism risks related to Japan, specifically recommending China National Aviation Holding (00753) with a "buy" rating for both H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 2 - In the broader transportation sector, Goldman Sachs holds an optimistic view on oil tanker companies, predicting further increases in spot freight rates during a sustained upward cycle through 2026 [1] - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) is expected to benefit from its high exposure to oil tankers and Chinese import business, also receiving a "buy" rating [1] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs has turned bearish on container shipping companies, noting that this year's new ship orders exceeded expectations, leading to an order-to-existing capacity ratio of 33%, which may result in a deeper and longer downturn [1] - China Merchants Industry Holdings (01919) has been given a sell rating due to these concerns [1]