转自：新华财经 "十四五"收官在即，"十五五"谋篇蓄势。12月3日至4日，兴业银行成都分行联合兴业研究在蓉成功主办2026年度策略 会暨2025年"兴研说·每月星光"总决赛。本次活动旨在深度践行"专家办行"，立足金融、服务大局、赋能实体，为金融 强国和中国式现代化建设贡献更大力量。兴业银行成都分行党委书记胡斌，兴业研究党委书记、院长刘健，兴业银行 首席经济学家、兴业研究学术评审委员会主席鲁政委出席会议。兴业银行成都分行、兴业研究主要负责人、500余名 金融机构及企业客户代表参加会议。 策略会伊始，鲁政委以《十五五，会是怎样的五年？》为题发表开场演讲。他指出，"十五五"时期将是碳达峰转折 期、城镇化转折期、隐债清零决胜期等多个关键阶段叠加的五年，碳市场、城市更新、资产盘活、产业发展、科技创 新、企业出海等将成为重点关注领域。在百年未有之大变局背景下，要加快建设现代化产业体系、实现高水平科技自 立自强，促进"中国经济"走向"中国人经济"，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，推动科技、资本与产业形成良性循环。 本次策略会共设置"宏观大势、金融实战、新兴产业、传统产业"四大专场，来自兴业研究30余位研究员先后围绕热点 议题分享最 ...

Core Viewpoint - Société Générale indicates that the medium-term economic growth outlook for the U.S. remains unaffected, predicting a return of the dollar by 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The bank expects a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in Q4 2025, which may pressure the dollar in the coming weeks and early 2026 [1] - By Q1 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate is projected to reach 1.20, but is expected to decline to 1.14 by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Currency Performance - The Canadian dollar is anticipated to be the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies next year due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - In 2026, many emerging market currencies are expected to experience a deterioration in spot exchange rate performance amid a strengthening dollar [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Jinyan Gaoling New Materials (02693) is being transferred from Guoyuan Securities Brokerage to Industrial Bank, with a market value of approximately HKD 9.3996 million, representing 5.19% of the total shares [1] - Jinyan Gaoling New Materials was listed on December 3, with an initial share price set at HKD 7.3, issuing a total of 24.3 million shares, resulting in a net proceeds of approximately HKD 124 million [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the shareholder of Jinyan Gaoling New Materials (02693) transferred shares from Guoyuan Securities Brokerage to Industrial Bank, with a transfer market value of HKD 9.3996 million, accounting for 5.19% of the total shares [1] - On December 3, Jinyan Gaoling New Materials was listed for the first time, with a share price set at HKD 7.3, issuing a total of 24.3 million shares, resulting in a net proceeds of approximately HKD 124 million [1]

Core Points - The fund "Guotai Lixiang Xinyi 90-Day Holding Period Bond Fund" has been approved for registration by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1] - The fund is a bond-type open-ended fund with a minimum holding period of 90 days, during which investors cannot redeem or transfer their shares [1][16] - The fund will be publicly offered from December 8, 2025, to December 19, 2025, with a maximum fundraising period of three months [3][21] Fund Structure - The fund is managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with the custodian being Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. [1][55] - The fund has two classes of shares: Class A and Class C, with specific codes assigned for each [15][16] - The minimum total fundraising amount for the fund is set at 200 million shares [17] Investment and Subscription Details - The fund is open to individual investors, institutional investors, qualified foreign investors, and other investors permitted by law [2][19] - The maximum subscription amount for a single investor per day is capped at 10 million yuan, with specific exceptions [2][20] - Investors can subscribe multiple times during the fundraising period, and the minimum subscription amount is 1 yuan [10][34] Sales and Distribution - The fund will be sold through designated sales institutions, including direct sales by the fund management company and other sales agencies [3][21] - Investors must open a fund account with Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. before subscribing, and the subscription application must be confirmed after account opening [10][34] - The fund's subscription fee for Class A shares will be calculated separately for each application, while Class C shares do not incur a subscription fee [22][23] Fund Management and Operations - The fund's assets will be managed in accordance with principles of diligence, honesty, and prudence, but there is no guarantee of profit [12][55] - The fund's net asset value may fluctuate due to market conditions, and investors should be aware of the inherent risks associated with fund investments [11][12] - The fund will undergo a verification process by a legal verification agency after the fundraising period ends, and the fund contract will take effect upon CSRC confirmation [51][52]

Summary of the Conference Call for Industrial Bank Company Overview - **Company**: Industrial Bank (兴业银行) - **Date**: December 4, 2025 Key Points Industry and Loan Structure - Industrial Bank continues to optimize its corporate loan structure, reducing real estate loans while increasing loans in green technology and manufacturing sectors, with growth rates significantly above the overall level. The expected annual increase in corporate loans is around 300 billion [2][3][7] - The bank's retail business strategy is cautious, focusing on risk control and genuine demand, leading to a negative growth of 400 billion in credit card balances and declines in mortgage and consumer loans [2][3][8] Risk Management - The bank maintains controllable risks in corporate real estate financing, with a year-on-year decline in non-performing loans (NPLs). 90% of loans have corresponding projects or collateral, indicating a positive trend in risk management [2][13] - The risk from local government financing platforms has shifted from high incidence to convergence, with no new NPLs reported in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][14][15] Interest Margin and Profitability - The bank anticipates a narrowing decline in net interest margin (NIM) by 2026, benefiting from the replacement of high-cost time deposits and reduced loan repricing pressure. However, asset yield risks remain a concern [2][15][16] Credit Strategy for 2026 - For 2026, the bank plans to focus on market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps and establish a private equity investment subsidiary to support technological innovation and new productivity [4][19] - The bank aims to explore high-quality asset construction opportunities in public utilities and strategic leading enterprises to achieve higher comprehensive benefits [5][6] Sector Performance - In 2025, the technology sector accounted for approximately 70% of new loan increments, indicating strong growth potential [7] - The bank's mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is around 45%, which is considered reasonable, with a positive trend in risk exposure in the mortgage sector [10][12] Retail Business Adjustments - The reduction in credit card and consumer loan balances is attributed to a strategic shift towards genuine demand and risk management, with a cautious outlook on retail risks [8][9] Future Outlook - The bank expects stable overall NPL rates in key sectors, with a focus on maintaining a stable credit environment and managing risks effectively [15][19] - The bank's middle-income growth is projected to continue, with a focus on wealth management and capital market activities [21] Capital Adequacy and Convertible Bonds - The bank is preparing to apply for advanced risk measurement methods to enhance risk management and capital efficiency. It has a significant amount of convertible bonds pending conversion, which is expected to positively impact capital adequacy [22][23] Dividend Policy - The bank has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed dividends significantly above the average since its listing. It plans to maintain and gradually increase its dividend payout ratio [24] Additional Important Insights - The bank's proactive measures in managing high-cost deposits and optimizing asset allocation are crucial for maintaining stability amid regulatory pressures [17][18] - The focus on technology finance and the establishment of the AIC business are strategic moves to enhance the bank's competitive edge in emerging sectors [19][20]

Group 1 - The "Caiyunzhinan·Kunming" cross-border tourism train symbolizes the cultural integration mission between China and Laos, serving as a new link for cross-border tourism and a testament to the efforts of Industrial Bank Kunming Branch in promoting regional cultural tourism development [1] - Industrial Bank Kunming Branch focuses on the construction of a green financial ecosystem in Yunnan, integrating financial services into various sectors of the cultural tourism industry, including sightseeing, transportation, accommodation, and intangible cultural heritage [1] Group 2 - The bank aligns with Yunnan's "Strong Transportation Province" strategy, combining support for cultural tourism transportation with green finance, creating a comprehensive travel network that includes rail, road, and urban transport [2] - Financing support is provided for the "Caiyunzhinan·Kunming" train, linking interest rates to the occupancy rate of senior passengers, promoting the integration of cultural tourism finance with elderly finance [2] - The bank has launched innovative financing products to support the electrification of passenger and commercial vehicles, investing over 300 million yuan in loans for the replacement of traditional taxis and ride-hailing vehicles with new energy vehicles [2] Group 3 - Industrial Bank Kunming Branch focuses on revitalizing core scenic areas in Yunnan through a service model that combines asset activation and scene upgrading, transforming dormant resources into sustainable industrial advantages [3] - The bank has implemented a "banking + commercial" collaborative model to facilitate private asset securitization projects, aiding in the upgrade and operational improvement of scenic spots like Tengchong and Shun Ancient Town [3] - Tailored financing solutions have been provided for local cultural tourism projects, supporting infrastructure improvements and the development of cultural facilities, contributing to the transformation of fishing villages into new landmarks [3] Group 4 - The bank has developed a financial service system for accommodation that includes high-end hotels,特色民宿, and travel-related services, addressing the diverse needs of different customer segments [4] - Special financial products have been introduced to assist small and micro enterprises, guesthouses, and inns in overcoming financing challenges related to asset-light operations and lack of collateral [4] - The bank aims to continuously inject financial vitality into the high-quality development of Yunnan's cultural tourism industry through innovative products and efficient services [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the achievements of Industrial Bank's Harbin branch in providing elderly-friendly financial services, earning the national "Respect for the Elderly Civilization Award" during the 16th "Respect for the Elderly Month" [1] Group 1: Elderly Financial Services - The Harbin branch has established a comprehensive "online + offline" elderly-friendly service system to address the needs of an aging population [1] - Offline, the branch has completed elderly-friendly renovations in all 29 local outlets, including features like barrier-free access, comfortable seating, emergency call devices, reading glasses, and first aid kits [1] - Online, the bank's mobile app has launched an "Elderly-Friendly Version" that simplifies operations and enlarges fonts and icons for easier access by senior customers [1] Group 2: Community Engagement - Over the past three years, the Harbin branch has organized more than 20 exclusive events for elderly clients, covering areas such as knowledge dissemination, health management, and artistic creation, benefiting over 2,000 elderly individuals [1] - During the annual Respect for the Elderly Month, the branch collaborates with senior universities to conduct public lectures on legal and health topics, enhancing the well-being and security of the elderly community [1] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Harbin branch aims to continue exploring innovative "finance + elderly care" models, focusing on three key areas: pension finance, elderly service finance, and elderly industry finance, contributing to the development of an elderly-friendly society [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of balancing positions, indicators, and costs in treasury liability strategies, focusing on liquidity management and cost optimization [2][14][16] - Current treasury strategies are characterized by a focus on long-term funding, short-term deposits, cost control, and improving liquidity indicators, with banks experiencing reduced cost pressures and increased expected liquidity gaps [3][4][6] - The report identifies that the expected liquidity gap is exacerbated by factors such as the non-bankization of deposits and the concentration of high-interest deposits maturing, estimating that 17 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits will mature in the second half of 2025, and 26 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026 [3][4][19] Group 2 - The liquidity risk indicators are under pressure, with some joint-stock banks experiencing a rapid decline in their Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), indicating a reliance on the liability side for liquidity adjustments [4][5][22] - The report suggests that the pricing of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) may increasingly reflect internal management demands, with banks focusing on managing liquidity gaps and improving liquidity indicators through NCD issuance [5][6][20] - Investment recommendations include positioning in large state-owned banks, core holdings in leading comprehensive banks, and flexible allocations in regional banks, with specific banks identified as beneficiaries [6][14][19]

Core Insights - The recent approval of three financial asset investment companies (AICs) marks the establishment of the first batch of national joint-stock bank AICs in China, expanding the total number of bank-affiliated AICs to nine [1][2] Group 1: AIC Establishment and Function - The newly approved AICs include Xinyin Financial Asset Investment Co., Xinyin Financial Asset Investment Co., and Zhaoyin Financial Asset Investment Co., with registered capitals of 150 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan respectively [1] - AICs were initially designed for market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, serving as a "risk isolation wall" and "asset restructuring expert" within the banking system, aimed at reducing corporate leverage and mitigating financial risks [1][3] - The role of AICs has evolved to become a major player in equity investment, particularly following recent policy expansions that have increased their investment scope and intensity [1] Group 2: Comparison Between AICs - The newly established AICs share common features with state-owned bank AICs, including core functions, regulatory frameworks, policy guidance, and operational models [2] - Differences exist in shareholder backgrounds, resource endowments, capital scales, and regional layouts, with state-owned AICs benefiting from larger asset scales and nationwide networks, focusing on large state-owned enterprises [2] - In contrast, joint-stock bank AICs have a slightly lower capital scale and are more concentrated in their initial focus, primarily serving private and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Group 3: Impact on the Economy - The entry of AICs is expected to significantly promote enterprise transformation and high-quality development by alleviating corporate debt burdens through debt-to-equity swaps, thereby facilitating technological research and product innovation [3] - AICs are positioned to support specialized and innovative enterprises, as well as technology-driven small and medium-sized enterprises, while also restructuring and revitalizing companies in debt distress through market-oriented and legal means [3]