煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：宏观预期反复，或延续弱势震荡 ➢ 经历了节前补库操作的兑现，节后需求表现相对偏弱，交投氛围相对偏冷清。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地小部分煤矿因假期出现短暂停产，国内供应小幅环比下降；蒙煤进口通车量尚未恢复至假期前的高位水平。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 中美贸易博弈或再度升级，全球海内外市场风险偏好高位回落，海外风险资产已在周五晚上出现估值上的大幅下挫，黑色估值同 样面临较大回调压力。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 煤焦基本面呈供需双弱态势，供需边际矛盾相对较小，叠加反内卷相关预期阶段性的充分计价，目前盘面估值或再度由宏观层 面因素所主导，中美贸易相关问题上的博弈激烈程度近日有所增加，风偏的回落或将对黑色及煤焦估值产生较大冲击。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuation of strong growth in the brokerage sector, with a significant increase in net profits expected for the first nine months of 2025. Key metrics include a 61% year-on-year increase in new A-share accounts and a 203% increase in average daily stock trading volume in September 2025 [2][5] - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.48, placing it in the 47.8th percentile over the past decade [2] - The report notes a favorable market environment supporting continued high growth in brokerage performance, with specific recommendations for leading firms and those with strong international business capabilities [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.47% during the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, while the non-bank index increased by 3.18%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 4.42%, 0.89%, and 0.52%, respectively [5][6] Non-Bank Sector Insights - The report indicates that the insurance sector is benefiting from the implementation of a "de-involution" policy framework for non-auto insurance, which is expected to improve underwriting profitability for leading firms [2][16] - Specific investment recommendations include firms that are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics and those with strong earnings elasticity [2][7] Key Data Tracking - As of October 10, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 26,034.09 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.99% increase from the previous period [14][32] - The report also tracks significant metrics such as the balance of margin financing and securities lending, which stood at 24,455.47 billion yuan as of October 9, 2025, marking a 31.2% increase from the end of 2024 [14][39]

Group 1 - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations at over 5.3%, indicating strong long-term growth potential despite short-term structural disparities in the economy [1] - The real estate sector remains a significant drag on domestic demand, as it holds a high share in residents' wealth allocation, impacting consumption sources [1] - The article emphasizes the need to stabilize housing prices and explores variables that could indicate when housing prices are stabilized [1] Group 2 - The concepts of rental yield and price-to-rent ratio are introduced, with rental yield measuring the annual rental income relative to the property's sale price [2] - A common belief is that if rental yields exceed government bond rates, properties become more attractive, but historical examples from the U.S. and Japan show this logic may not hold true [2][5] - The article argues that housing is akin to "credit bonds," where price fluctuations affect perceived value, unlike stable government bonds [5] Group 3 - The return on investment in real estate comes from both rental income and capital gains, with expectations of price increases diminishing the importance of rental yields [6] - When housing price expectations are low, rental yields must be significantly higher to compensate for potential price declines and associated costs [6] - The article draws parallels between real estate and stock market behaviors, noting that both markets react similarly to investor expectations [7] Group 4 - The analysis of 13 economies reveals that once housing prices enter a downward cycle, valuations tend to revert to historical lows, similar to stock market trends [7] - Stabilizing housing prices requires more than just increasing rental yields; it necessitates managing price expectations, which are influenced by macroeconomic inflation expectations [7][8] - Recent macroeconomic policies in China have focused on boosting expectations and inflation, which could positively impact housing price stability in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage firms in China have significantly increased their bond issuance this year, with a total of 1.26 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 75.42% [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - As of October 10, 2023, several brokerages, including China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Industrial Securities, and Zhongyuan Securities, have announced progress in bond approvals or listings [1][2] - CICC plans to issue up to 10 billion yuan in corporate bonds, while Industrial Securities has received approval for a public issuance of up to 20 billion yuan [1][2] - China Galaxy Securities leads the bond issuance with 107.9 billion yuan, followed by Huatai Securities with 98.1 billion yuan, and Guotai Junan with 87 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Factors Driving Bond Issuance - The increase in bond issuance is attributed to a recovering market, rising capital-intensive businesses like margin trading and derivatives, and a slowdown in equity financing [3][4] - Company bonds have become the preferred method for brokerages, reflecting their long-term funding needs and the advantages of lower costs compared to equity financing [3][4] - Regulatory changes have also influenced the shift towards bond financing, as the pace of equity financing has slowed down due to new regulations promoting capital-efficient and high-quality development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance by securities firms in China has surged significantly in 2023, reflecting a strong demand for capital amid a recovering market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Data - As of October 10, 2023, the total bond issuance by securities firms in China reached 1.26 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.42% [1][3]. - China Galaxy Securities leads the market with a bond issuance of 107.9 billion yuan, followed by Huatai Securities at 98.1 billion yuan and Guotai Junan at 87 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Bond Issuance - The increase in bond issuance is attributed to a recovering market, heightened capital needs for margin trading and derivatives, and a slowdown in equity financing [3][4]. - Company bonds have become the preferred method for financing, with a notable shift away from short-term financing bonds and perpetual subordinated bonds [3]. Group 3: Purpose of Bond Financing - The primary uses of the funds raised through bond issuance include repaying maturing debts, supplementing working capital, and supporting daily operations and business development [4]. - The low interest rate environment has made bond financing more attractive compared to equity financing, allowing firms to manage financial expenditures effectively [4]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment has also influenced the shift towards bond financing, as the pace of equity financing through private placements and rights issues has slowed down [4].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指基差系列： 风偏下行的双向波动可能持续 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ "九三"共识兑现过后各板块出现结构性过热后的价值回归，A 股成交温和缩量，单日成交逐 步下滑至 2.2 万亿左右，热点题材的虹吸效应增强，板块轮动加速，宽基指数先下跌后缓慢 修复，多数指数月线涨幅收窄，双创指数月线表现依然强势，涨幅在 10%以上，中小盘受伤较 重，中证 2000 月线转跌。 ◼ 月初调整过后，各品种日度级别的基差变化与指数变动的关联较弱，多数交易日呈现双向波 动，同时日内 1min 级别的基差变化在品种间分歧依然较大，这或许说明当前期货场内风险偏 好并未改善，仍然是相对无序的状态。截至 9 月末，各品种年化基差率回升至近三年以来 20% 分位数附近。 ◼ 产品端来看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shibu Testing (301228.SZ), reported a decline in revenue and continued net losses for the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing financial challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 167.20 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.97% compared to 198.98 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -26.98 million yuan, slightly worsening from -26.33 million yuan in the previous year, reflecting a decrease of 2.45% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -28.66 million yuan, compared to -27.35 million yuan in the same period last year, marking a decline of 4.79% [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -14.55 million yuan, a significant drop from -9.99 million yuan in the previous year, representing a decrease of 45.65% [2]. Historical Financial Data - From 2022 to 2024, the company's operating revenue was 351.47 million yuan, 373.83 million yuan, and 442.11 million yuan, respectively, showing a growth trend [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years was -17.96 million yuan, -93.54 million yuan, and -65.79 million yuan, indicating a gradual improvement in losses [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the same years was -31.35 million yuan, -97.71 million yuan, and -67.02 million yuan, also showing a trend of reduced losses [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for these years was 782.06 thousand yuan, -1.36 million yuan, and 24.35 million yuan, indicating a significant recovery in cash flow in 2024 [3]. Initial Public Offering (IPO) Details - Shibu Testing was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market on January 28, 2022, with a public offering of 30 million shares, accounting for 25% of the total share capital post-issue, at a price of 20.08 yuan per share [4]. - The total amount raised from the IPO was 602.40 million yuan, with a net amount of 526.33 million yuan after deducting issuance costs, exceeding the original plan by 124.23 million yuan [4]. - The funds raised are intended for the construction of a new laboratory project, the establishment of a research and development information center, and to supplement working capital [4].

Core Insights - AMD has signed a 6GW computing power chip cooperation agreement with OpenAI, which is expected to accelerate the ROCm ecosystem development [1] - The Haiguang DTK software stack is fully compatible with the ROCm ecosystem, potentially reducing the adaptation costs for large models in China [2] - Industrial and commercial banks, along with China Unicom, are procuring Haiguang chips worth several billion yuan, indicating a rapid penetration of Haiguang chips in the domestic market [3] Group 1 - AMD and OpenAI's agreement includes the deployment of a total of 6GW of AMD GPU computing power, starting with 1GW based on the MI450 series GPU in the second half of 2026 [1] - The collaboration is seen as a response to the significant gap in AI computing power supply and aims to enhance the synergy between AMD and OpenAI in both hardware and software [1] - ROCm 7 is expected to be available by Q3 2025, offering over 3.5 times the inference capability and three times the training capability compared to ROCm 6 [1] Group 2 - The Haiguang DCU features a complete software stack, including DTK, development toolchain, and model repository, which supports mainstream deep learning frameworks like TensorFlow and Pytorch [2] - This compatibility is anticipated to effectively lower the costs associated with adapting large models domestically [2] Group 3 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has announced a procurement project for Haiguang chip servers, with a potential total procurement amount reaching 3 billion yuan [3] - China Unicom's procurement project for Haiguang servers has a budget of 2.782 billion yuan, indicating strong demand for domestic chip solutions [3] - The financial and telecommunications sectors are expected to lead the way in achieving comprehensive domestic production, thereby accelerating the penetration of Haiguang chips [3]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3927.63 points, slightly down by 0.16%, with a total trading volume of 1.2446 trillion yuan [1] - A total of 181 A-shares have surpassed the half-year line, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Li Min Co., Ltd. (002734) has a deviation rate of 4.31% with a price increase of 6.27% [1] - Yuanda Environmental Protection (600292) shows a deviation rate of 3.35% and a price increase of 3.93% [1] - Oriental Carbon (920175) has a deviation rate of 3.28% with an 8.17% price increase [1] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for A-shares today is reported at 1.2446 trillion yuan [1] - The stocks with the smallest deviation rates include Lian Ke Technology, Lingkang Pharmaceutical, and Publishing Media, which have just crossed the half-year line [1] Deviation Rate Rankings - The top stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - Li Min Co., Ltd. (002734) at 4.31% - Yuanda Environmental Protection (600292) at 3.35% - Oriental Carbon (920175) at 3.28% [1] - Other notable stocks with significant price increases and deviation rates include: - Han Commercial Group (600774) at 3.19% - Rui Pu Biological (300119) at 2.99% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，小核酸药物作为继小分子和抗体药物后的第三浪，正通过技 术迭代实现从罕见病向常见病的跨越。随着GalNac递送系统升级和完全修饰技术的成熟，siRNA药物在 心血管疾病、慢乙肝、减重等大适应症领域进入研发兑现阶段，有望诞生重磅品种。中国企业可在龙头 的技术基础上快速迭代，在敲降效果、给药周期、注射方式等多方面取得差异化优势。该行认为未来的 破局或在于对新疾病领域，特别是过去难以成药的靶点的探索，以及肝外递送系统的突破。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 平台化特点显著，关注适应症的卡位和肝外递送的突破 当前的siRNA药物的产业化进程在于靶点和生物学机制清晰的常见病的商业化，虽然siRNA药物在搭建 好底层技术平台后分子PCC的速度非常快，但基于其长效化特性，该行认为该机制的药物仍然具有先发 优势(临床时间长)，率先卡位的企业仍然能获得较好的商业化收益或者对外合作的可能性。因GalNac递 送系统的效率和特异性高，且专利有突破空间，该行认为这个机制的药物在致病基因或机制明确的疾病 和肝内靶点的内卷程度会非常高，未来的破局或在于对新疾病领域，特别是过去难以成药的靶点的探 索，以及肝外 ...