Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that leading brokerage firms with advantages in corporate client resources, professional service capabilities, and cross-border service capabilities are expected to continue benefiting from the evolving investment banking ecosystem as the financing and investment landscape enters a new phase [1][3] - In the A-share market, equity financing is gradually recovering, with bond underwriting maintaining growth. In November, there were 12 new IPOs raising a total of 20.5 billion yuan, and refinancing reached 12 billion yuan. Year-to-date, A-share IPOs have increased by 95% and refinancing by 363% (70% excluding large state-owned enterprise placements) [1] - The demand for mergers and acquisitions remains strong, with 157 major restructuring events disclosed year-to-date, including 11 in November. Bond issuance has also seen a cumulative underwriting scale increase, with 398.3 billion yuan in core bond issuance in November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in trading activity since the second half of 2024, with improved market liquidity driving a substantial recovery in IPOs and refinancing. Year-to-date, the IPO scale in Hong Kong has reached 259.4 billion HKD, up 228%, while refinancing has reached 315.6 billion HKD, up 251% [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the need for a more transparent, efficient, and predictable regulatory environment for overseas listings, which is expected to further enhance the financing convenience in the Hong Kong market [2] - The investment and financing rebalancing is entering a new phase, with ongoing reforms expected to benefit various business segments of brokerage firms, including investment banking [3]

Core Viewpoint - Unisoc is recognized as a leading player in the domestic smart security chip and special integrated circuit market, benefiting from high demand in downstream special fields, automotive electronics, and the Internet of Things [1] Company Summary - Unisoc's product offerings include smart cards and FPGA, with a strong technological barrier and stable position in the industry [1] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in performance due to ongoing product platformization and R&D innovation [1] - Based on comparable company PE/PB valuations and Unisoc's industry position and technological advantages, a target price of 96 yuan is set, corresponding to a PE of 50.26 times for 2025, with an initial "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Unisoc is a leading player in the domestic smart security chip and special integrated circuit market, with high technical barriers and a solid position in the industry [1] - The company benefits from the high prosperity of downstream special fields, automotive electronics, and the Internet of Things markets, which is expected to contribute to steady growth in performance [1] - The report estimates a target price of 96 yuan based on a 50.26 times PE ratio for 2025, and initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is rated as "overweight" by Guotai Junan, with expectations of supply-side contraction and gradual recovery of the steel fundamentals [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply - Demand for steel has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with total apparent consumption of five major steel products at 8.3528 million tons, down 0.53% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year [2] - Total steel production was 7.9797 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.02%, while total inventory stood at 12.9478 million tons, down 2.8% month-on-month, maintaining a low level [2] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 78.47%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a continued decline in inventory [2] Group 2: Profitability - The average gross profit for rebar was estimated at 206 CNY per ton, an increase of 54 CNY per ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit averaged 8 CNY per ton, up 36 CNY per ton [3] - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies remained stable at 35.93% [3] - China's crude steel production in November was 6.987 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year, while pig iron production was 6.234 million tons, down 8.7% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, while supply is anticipated to continue contracting, with the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand significantly diminishing [4] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating that market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to occur [4] - The steel fundamentals are expected to gradually improve as supply-side contraction persists [4]

Group 1 - Jiangcheng Guotai Haitong Shengong (Wuhan) Venture Capital Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) has been established with a capital contribution of 200 million yuan [1] - The business scope includes private equity investment fund management and venture capital fund management services [1] - The enterprise is jointly funded by Shengong Co., Ltd. and Guotai Haitong's wholly-owned subsidiary Guotai Junan Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. [1]

● 本报记者 赵中昊 胡雨 在建设金融强国的战略指引下，我国证券行业正迎来一轮"自上而下、政策驱动"的深度整合浪潮。近 日，中金公司宣布换股吸收合并东兴证券与信达证券，交易完成后预计总资产规模将跨越万亿元大关， 一家新的"航母级"券商雏形初现。这仅是行业变局的缩影，2025年以来，包括国泰君安与海通证券合并 在内的多起重磅案例陆续落地。 业内人士认为，此轮并购旨在超越简单的规模叠加，其核心逻辑已从解决个体问题升级为服务国家战 略，证券行业发展模式从单纯的规模扩张转向追求功能协同与专业能力的跃迁，以期优化金融供给、锻 造一流投行，标志着行业步入以功能跃迁为核心的高质量发展新阶段。 行业并购风起云涌 头部券商格局生变 日前，中金公司吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券再迎实质性进展：中金公司正式宣布换股方式吸收合并东 兴证券及信达证券的方案，交易完成后预计总资产规模将超过万亿元，又一家"航母级"券商呼之欲出， 新一轮证券行业并购重组浪潮提速。 据中国证券报记者不完全统计，2025年已有包括中金公司吸收合并前述两家券商在内的多起并购重组案 例取得进展。其中，国泰君安吸收合并海通证券、国信证券收购万和证券、浙商证券吸收合并国都 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Commodity prices showed mixed performance, with IPE crude oil futures down 1.1% and the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index down 0.5%, while COMEX copper rose 2.3% and London gold increased by 1.0% [1][4] - Emerging market stocks underperformed compared to developed markets, with the Nikkei 225 down 2.6% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%. The Shanghai Composite Index remained flat, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% [1][4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.16%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures prices dropped by 0.1% [1][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators in the U.S. - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5% [6][12] - The November CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from September and significantly below the expected 3.1% [8] - Retail sales in October showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from September, primarily due to declines in auto sales and gasoline prices [11] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts, with the new chairperson expected to be announced in early 2026 [20][22] - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting, indicating that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end [20][22] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, signaling potential for further gradual increases in the future [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance and brokerage sectors, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for both industries, indicating expected outperformance compared to the overall market [2][66]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on leading firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics [2][5]. - The insurance sector is poised for a systematic value reassessment, with significant regulatory changes expected to enhance asset-liability management practices [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,568.18 with a slight decline of -0.28% over the week, while the non-bank index rose by 2.90% [5]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 1.01%, 7.03%, and 1.39% respectively [5]. Key Data in Non-Banking Sector - As of December 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,033.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.23% compared to the previous month [41]. - The margin trading balance reached 24,993.66 billion yuan, an increase of 34.0% from the end of 2024 [15]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, marking a significant consolidation trend in the brokerage industry [2][29]. - The brokerage index's price-to-book ratio (PB) is currently at 1.38, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2]. Insurance Sector Insights - The new asset-liability management regulations are expected to significantly impact the insurance industry, emphasizing the need for effective risk management and alignment of assets and liabilities [2][17]. - The insurance sector index increased by 7.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.30 percentage points [2]. Investment Recommendations - For the brokerage sector, the report recommends focusing on top-tier firms such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive conditions [2]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance are highlighted for their potential in the ongoing value reassessment [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, particularly focusing on the insurance and brokerage industries, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on leading institutions benefiting from an optimized competitive landscape [2]. - The insurance sector is entering a new phase of asset-liability management, with the introduction of new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the stability and efficiency of insurance operations [2][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,568.18 with a slight decline of -0.28%, while the non-bank index rose by 2.90% [5]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 1.01%, 7.03%, and 1.39% respectively [5]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector's index (PB) is at 1.38 times, which is in the 44th percentile since 2018, indicating that valuations remain low [2]. - Recent mergers, such as the absorption of Dongxing and Xinda Securities by CICC, are seen as a new approach to consolidation in the industry, potentially increasing efficiency and concentration [2]. - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: leading firms with strong competitive advantages, firms with high earnings elasticity, and those with strong international business capabilities [2]. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance index rose by 7.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.30 percentage points [2]. - The new asset-liability management regulations aim to enhance governance structures and monitoring indicators, which are expected to significantly impact the insurance industry [19]. - Key management goals include matching the duration of assets and liabilities, ensuring liquidity, and improving cost-benefit alignment [19]. Important Data - As of December 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,033.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.23% from the previous month [46]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached 24,993.66 billion yuan, an increase of 34% compared to the end of 2024 [17]. Individual Company Highlights - China Pacific Insurance reported a total premium income exceeding 430 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [31]. - New China Life Insurance achieved a premium income of 188.85 billion yuan, marking a 16% increase year-on-year [32]. - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities is expected to streamline operations and enhance market positioning [33].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 供应 • 本周(20251211-1217)，中国尿素生产企业产量：136.59万吨，较上期跌1.95万吨，环比跌1.41%。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，暂无停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 期的装置变化，本周产量小幅减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计137万吨附近，较本期小幅波动。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，2-4家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量可能略增。（隆众资讯） • 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及复 合肥厂连续补库，带动内蒙地区工厂订单数量增加，库存下降。但伴随工厂价格上涨以及货物的顺利外发，中游补 ...